FanPost

TPM™ 2018-'19 Game 69 vs Boston

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Perhaps the prototype for a "small-ball" starting five. They've under-performed expectations in the regular season and Brown now comes off the bench but they are still my pick to come out of the East.

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Speaking of small-ball, these characters are definitely two of my two favorite former Celtics.

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This proves nothing. Frisbees are flat... they fly!

42115510_262482381275727_3881972251121690938_n.0.jpgThe band is FINALLY back together!

Nuggets vs Celtics II: Two things are certain: Yes, the Earth is round and yes, we can expect Kyrie Irving to ball the fuck out in this "revenge" game.

When last these two teams squared off in game 10 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from five players led by Jamal Murray: +37. Three players for Denver were in the red for that match-up led by Juancho/Torrey Craig: -3 as the Nuggets earned an impressive victory 117-107, after trailing by as much as 18.

In that game, Jamal Murray was unstoppable. He scored a career high 48 on 19-30 shooting, 5-11 from downtown and 5-5 from the charity stripe. Unfortunately, he DID take an ill-advised three point shot at the end of the game in search of 50 points but Kyrie Irving made ENTIRELY too much of it. It was EXACTLY the type of thing Kyrie would have done at 21 years old and I have serious doubts as to whether or not he'd even do it to this day. Maturity has never exactly been his calling card. Even more silly was the fact that Irving was amongst many on Twitter who cheered Klay Thompson on just days earlier, as he went for a similar milestone during a blowout victory for Golden State so the sour taste left in his mouth was likely that of grape flavored Defense exhibited on the part of Kyrie.

As for this game, make no mistake Irving WILL have revenge in his mind and unlike Murray, he's proven to be the type of player to shine when it is expected of him. He is consistently good in these types of scenarios; something that has eluded Murray for the most part, as is expected of someone who just recently turned 22. Real or imagined, Kyrie wants revenge tonight but Murray to his credit, should never be mistaken for a patsy, even if he is in Bean-Town for St Patrick's day. I don't expect him to match Irving's output but Denver doesn't necessarily need him to, in order to steal a victory in a very tough environment, so long as Tony Brothers isn't officiating.

At this point in his career, Murray is somewhere between 2-5 in terms of contribution importance for Denver, in amongst Millsap/Barton/Harris and all four of them have missed sizeable chunks of the season, which has led to the revelation that is Denver's backup back-court, Monte & Malik.

It will of course require a sizable contribution from the majority of the aforementioned players as well as Big Honey if Denver hopes to snag one of the more unlikely W's of their remaining schedule but they've shown time and time again that they are for real and can win on any given night, vs anyone (but the Bucks.)

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Here are some numbers you can use:

Boston gives up 107.5 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 107.0

The Celtics average 112.8 PPG offensively to the Nuggets 112.0

This results in a net rating for Boston of +5.3 and +5.0 for Denver

Boston is 26-10 at home while Denver is 16-16 away from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

In terms of conference record, the Celtics are 29-13 to the Nuggets 30-14 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition

Denver of course is 2nd in the Western Conference standings, just 1 game behind the Warriors while Boston currently resides in 5th place in the Eastern Conference, 9 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)
BOS: RPG 44.7 APG 26.5 SPG 8.8 BPG 5.4 FG% 46.6 FT% 80.7 3% 36.5

DEN: RPG 46.6 APG 27.8 SPG 7.8 BPG 4.5 FG% 46.9 FT% 75.5 3% 35.6

The numbers on whole are remarkably similar but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone.

To that end, the Nuggets have won 13 of their last 20 & 6 of their last 10 games, while the Celtics have been victorious in 12 of their last 20 & 6 of their last 10.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, Boston is a rough & tumble, clutchy/grabby defensive team which is precisely the Rx to get Denver to play out of sorts. Teams often attempt to muck things up and "uglify" the game, which worked smashingly in their previous contest this season, in Denver... for one half that is. Inevitably Boston's outside shooting, which was unsustainably hot in the first half, failed them just in time for Murray to catch fire himself and Denver pulled out the W. In short, the Nuggets KNOW they can beat the Celtics but they should not assume that they will or that they should in any way find the going easy.

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For this young Nuggets group, (fourth youngest in the NBA; they were the youngest at the start of the season but tank-moves made by CHI/NY/PHO have rendered them younger, since) individual consistency is simply not a thing so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night. The Nuggets have missed more man-games to injury by a wide margin, than any team in the league. This includes three starters having played fewer games than they have missed. As they are worked back into the rotation, neither can team consistency be expected.

Having said that, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry; a natural scorer/creator and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without Lyles and MPJ.

When Jokic gets a 3D at home, over the course of his career, the Nuggets are undefeated and only once in his 28 career 3D's have the Nuggets lost. In short, these are not hollow, stat seeking ventures but Jokic playing within the offense. He's come up short of a 3D no less than a dozen times this season alone, by one or two P/R/A due to the Nuggets leading big and his sitting out fourth quarters. In such occasions he can be found laughing and cheering his teammates on from the pine.

The man cares about one thing only and that is winning. Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I do expect the Nuggets' rotation to tighten up a bit come playoff time, so it will likely be an eight man unit, which leaves Craig/Juancho/IT out, situational needs, foul trouble and recycling time excepted.

Food for thought: With Harris/Barton/Millsap returning from injury and again starting, this is what Denver's rotation should consist of:

PG Murray/Morris

SG Harris/Beasley

SF Barton/Harris/Beasley/Lyles

PF Millsap/Lyles/Plumlee

C Jokic/Plumlee/Millsap/Lyles

For this to work Plumlee has got to curtail his fouling, Jokic has GOT to stop taking "Jokic only" fouls to prove a point to officials and defensive communication has got to be at a premium. Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

Prediction: Denver (lap ) 105 - Boston 115

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Boston Celtics Roster

Coach: Brad "The Rad Dad" Stevens

NO Name POS Age HT WT College Salary
46 "Carin" Aron Baynes C 31 6' 10" 260 lbs Washington State
$5,193,600
26 Jabari "The Best Celtic Ever Named" Bird SG 24 6' 6" 198 lbs California $1,349,464
7 "Never Failin" Jaylen Brown SG 22 6' 7" 220 lbs California
$5,169,960
50 PJ "Bull" Dozier PG 22 6' 6" 205 lbs South Carolina G-Money
20 Gordon "Lightfoot" Hayward SF 28 6' 8" 225 lbs Butler $31,214,295
42 "All Around" Al Horford C 32 6' 10" 245 lbs Florida $28,928,709
11 Kyrie "Julius" Irving PG 26 6' 3" 193 lbs Duke $20,099,189
45 Walt "Liz" Lemon Jr. PG 26 6' 3" 180 lbs Bradley G-Money
13 "Miraculous" Marcus Morris PF 29 6' 9" 235 lbs Kansas $5,375,000
37 Semi "The Diesel" Ojeleye PF 23 6' 7" 241 lbs SMU $1,378,242
12 "Scary"Terry Rozier
PG 24 6' 1" 190 lbs Louisville $3,050,390
36 Marcus "DBBIQ" Smart PG 24 6' 4" 220 lbs Oklahoma State $11,660,716
0 Jayson "Sp? #3" Tatum SF 20 6' 8" 208 lbs Duke $6,700,800
27 Daniel "Reggie" Theis PF 26 6' 8" 243 lbs Deutchland $1,378,242
9 Brad Wanamaker "Deal?"
PG 29 6' 4" 210 lbs Pittsburgh $838,464
44 Robert "Don't Call Me Robbie" Williams C 21 6' 10" 240 lbs Texas A&M $1,654,440
30 Guerschon "Gesundheit" Yabusele PF 22 6' 8" 260 lbs Francais $2,667,600

Denver Nuggets Roster

Coach: Coach: Michael "Post" Malone

NO Name POS Age HT WT College Salary
5 Will "The People's Champion" Barton SG 27 6' 6" 190 lbs Memphis $11,830,358
25 "Mutant" Malik Beasley SG 22 6' 5" 195 lbs Florida State $1,773,840
3 Torrey "FUCKING" Craig SF 27 6' 7" 215 lbs USC Upstate $2,000,000
2 Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin PG 23 6' 2" 180 lbs Florida Gulf Coast $630,032
14 "Just" Gary Harris SG 24 6' 4" 210 lbs Michigan State $16,517,857
41 Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez PF 23 6' 9" 230 lbs Espana
$2,166,360
15 Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker) C 23 7' 0" 250 lbs Gotham
$24,605,181
20 Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon PF 22 6' 10" 225 lbs Syracuse $1,874,640
7 Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles PF 23 6' 10" 234 lbs Kentucky $3,364,249
4 Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap PF 33 6' 8" 246 lbs Louisiana Tech $29,230,769
11 Monte "Ratio" Morris PG 23 6' 3" 175 lbs Iowa State $1,349,383
27 Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray PG 21 6' 4" 207 lbs Kentucky $3,499,800
24 Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee PF 28 6' 11" 235 lbs Duke $12,917,808
1 Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr. PF 20 6' 10" 210 lbs Missouri $2,894,160
0 Isaiah "Ice" Thomas PG 29 5' 9" 185 lbs Washington $1,512,601
8 Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt PF 19 6' 9" 214 lbs Kentucky $838,464
45 Thomas "Irvine" Welsh C 22 7' 0" 255 lbs UCLA G-Money








Update: MPJ is still waiting to make his Denver Nuggets/pro debut as he rehabs from multiple back surgeries. Craig is questionable with a shoulder injury. Wow! That was short! As for the Celtics, Hayward is doubtful with a neck strain, Horford is probable with left knee soreness while Williams is also questionable with an illness.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 69 BOS(Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +33

Jamal Murray: +5

Gary Harris: +14

Monte Morris: +12

Paul Millsap: +12

Will Barton: +13

Mason Plumlee: +1

Malik Beasley: +6

Torrey Craig: +10

Trey Lyles: N/A

Juancho: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: +0

Thomas Welsh: N/A

Isaiah Thomas: +1

Tyler Lydon: G-league

Brandon Goodwin: G-league

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 68 games +1556

Jamal Murray: 63 games +1077

Gary Harris: 44 games +542

Monte Morris: 69 games +812

Paul Millsap: 58 games +553

Will Barton: 31 games +254

Mason Plumlee: 69 games +548

Malik Beasley: 69 games +546

Torrey Craig: 63 games +12

Trey Lyles: 56 games +303

Juancho: 63 games -7

Jared Vanderbilt: 10 games +12

Thomas Welsh: 11 games +22

Isaiah Thomas: 10 games 73

Tyler Lydon: 24 games -2

Brandon Goodwin: 16 games +28

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Nick Young: 3 games -2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +22.88

Jamal Murray: +17.10

Gary Harris: +12.32

Monte Morris: +11.77

Paul Millsap: +9.53

Will Barton: +8.19

Mason Plumlee: +7.94

Malik Beasley: +7.91

Torrey Craig: +0.19

Trey Lyles: +5.41

Juancho: -0.11

Jared Vanderbilt: +1.20

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

Isaiah Thomas: +7.30

Tyler Lydon: -0.08

Brandon Goodwin: +1.75

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Nick Young: -0.67

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

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TPM Per-Minute Splits Through Game 66:

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*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- For only the 10th time this season, the Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Celtics counter with Irving, Smart, Tatum, Morris & Horford. Big Honey is sporting the slick looking cobalt kicks for what I believe to be the first time on the season. Kyrie gets the scoring underway at 11:30, after several misses by both teams. There is definitely a playoff-like atmosphere in The Garden tonight, though the crowd is eerily silent early. Denver seems gun-shy and it's even-Steven at four, with 8:49 to go. The Nuggets are getting plenty of good looks due to excellent ball movement and they lead by five with 7:30 remaining. To say Kyrie is forcing things would be an understatement as the Nuggets lead by seven at the time of the first break, 7:06. Irving was forced into a shot clock violation by Murray and then stuffed at the tail end of the shot clock by Jokic.

IT just received his video tribute to a standing ovation. I'd have liked to insert him at this time to capitalize on the adrenaline. No dice. Boston gets consecutive stops and the crowd is getting riled up now. Morris is first off the pine for the good guys at 4:40, leading by six. Plumlee/Beasley check in at 3:54, up by five. Horford from beyond the arc has been Boston's best weapon thus-far as he cuts it to two with a bomb at 3:23. Murray is as-yet invisible. Beasley is uncharacteristically cold tonight. IT checks in for the first time in several games, to a rousing ovation at 2:42, leading by four. 'Sap is once again leading the Nuggets charge toward positive momentum as has been the case frequently in recent games & they lead by three with under a minute to play. The crowd actually groaned when IT missed a three. It's clear he's revered in the land of green beer. Rozier, out of fear (I'll stop now) misses a half-hearted chuck at the buzzer. Solid game so far. Denver is paced in TPM by Paul Millsap: +12 as they lead 24-22 after one.

Nikola Jokic: +5 Jamal Murray: +0 Gary Harris: +8 Monte Morris: +0 Paul Millsap: +12 Mason Plumlee: -3 Malik Beasley: +0 Will Barton: +2 Isaiah Thomas: -1 Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: +N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Qtr2- The Nuggets trot out Craig very early in the second period after 'Sap earns his second foul. IT is barking out orders as to how to best defend the plays that Coach Stevens calls out which I find to be mildly entertaining. Beasley is DEFINITELY out of sorts tonight. Too much St Patty's day imbibery? I wouldn't doubt it given that he's only recently turned 21. He is 0-5 and playing zero defense as the Nuggets cling to a two point lead at 8:37. He finally makes the wise choice and takes it to the rack for a dunk. Boston jumps ahead by four as Denver cant generate any good looks with this unit of Monte/IT/Beasley/Craig/Plumlee, at 7:52. With this lineup, the ball must be in the hands of Monte in the P&R with Mason, to create an easy layup or an open look from three and that has yet to occur. It's mostly Plumlee in the post or high post and a lot of standing around. The starters minus 'Sap plus Craig return at 7:36 and Jokic sticks a three immediately.

Denver retakes a four point lead betwixt a bevy of Barton buckets and a three by Jamal at 4:45. Things are getting chippy between Murray and Smart as Denver leads by six on the strength of a 14-4 run at 3:58 & The Joker nearly has a 2D already with 9-9-2. Barton is first to reach double digits for Denver. It would be beneficial for Denver to keep producing with 'Sap on the bench so he doesn't earn a third foul prior to halftime. Craig is getting far too much burn at the 4 which leads one to believe that Lyles isn't all the way healthy and that Juancho is officially out of the rotation. Jokic has his 2D with 11-10-2. He makes two in double digits for Denver. Irving makes two layups in a row as well as a couple of trips to the charity stripe vs Barton/Harris and it's down to three. Irving's entire strategy is to attack the rim and he's doing so with mixed results. Big Honey misses a 40 footer as the halftime buzzer sounds. Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +14 as they lead 55-52 at the half

Nikola Jokic: +14 Jamal Murray: +3 Gary Harris: +6 Monte Morris: +2 Paul Millsap: +10 Mason Plumlee: -1 Malik Beasley: +0 Will Barton: +8 Torrey Craig: +3 Isaiah Thomas: +1 Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: +N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Qtr3- The Nuggets need to acquire some semblance of a threat from beyond the arc if they wish to pull out this unlikely road win. Fortunately, Millsap should be energized as he hasn't played since very early in the second period. Boston is now switching everything which should lead to some tasty mismatches for Jokic. Kyrie is heating up and Boston leads by two at 10:28. Denver regains the lead on a three by Harris at 9:55. Despite being a very clutchy/grabby team defensively, no Celtics players have more than two fouls at 9:26. No sooner did I type that than Smart earns his third. 'Sap is called for HIS third foul on a phantom call where Marcus Morris kicked his legs out while shooting a three, unnaturally so and 'Sap STILL didn't even touch him. That puts Boston back on top by one with 8:22 remaining. Barton is struggling mightily on both ends in the third period, as the C's lead by one with 6:30 to go. Murray makes three in double digits for Denver. The Nuggets are starting to get really sloppy with Barton over-handling the ball and Coach Malone is forced to call a timeout, with Denver now trailing by four and 5:46 remaining.

Lets get Beasley out there in Will's place to see if HE has at least screwed his head into it's normal place. Malone's decision is instead to insert Plumlee for 'Sap, resulting in a 24 second violation following the timeout; not a good look. Boston now leads by five as their "big" men are drilling it from distance vs the much larger Plumlee/Jokic combination. Malik/Monte are in for the Nuggets at 4:06, trailing by five. Everything is initiating from the perimeter for Jokic where he is ice-cold and Denver needs to start feeding him in the post where he has a HUGE advantage against all comers. On the next time down, just such an occasion leads to a wide open three for Barton. Boston leads by four after ANOTHER turnover by an entirely too passive Barton who FINALLY sits after four third quarter turnovers! The very first Monte to Plumlee P&R play (that I've caught anyway) leads to a wide open three by Craig and the lead for Boston is down to two with 1.1 to go. Vanderbilt checks in to defend the inbound and forces a turnover. He's immediately back to the bench for Jokic and 'Sap finds Torrey for a wide open Dunk on the inbound, to tie it up at the end of three! He makes four in double digits for Denver. The Nuggets are paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +15 as they are knotted up 80-80 after three.

Nikola Jokic: +15 Jamal Murray: +5 Gary Harris: +7 Monte Morris: +8 Paul Millsap: +9 Mason Plumlee: +2 Malik Beasley: +0 Will Barton: +11 Torrey Craig: +8 Isaiah Thomas: +1 Jared Vanderbilt: +0 Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: +N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Qtr4- The Nuggets break the tie with an alley-oop from Monte to Plumlee. Malik is in to start the fourth and earns a steal; maybe that will get him going on the other end of the floor. Denver now leads by six on the strength of an 11-0 run at 10:34. We should expect Kyrie to be reinserted after the timeout by Stephens. Not so and I'm just fine with that. As predicted, Malik finally makes a three and the lead is seven at 9:19. It is at this time that Stevens motions for his starters to begin filtering back in. Interestingly, they sit back down prior to checking in. That was very strange. It had what I can only assume was the intended result, as Boston has picked up the D, cutting it to four and getting the crowd back into it. Jokic replaces 'Sap who earned his fourth foul and immediately finds Craig for two. I can not believe that Kyrie is still on the bench at 6:30, trailing by eight. He finally enters for the stretch run at 6:15 and immediately scores. Two straight bombs from beyond the arc for Jokic and the lead is nine for the Nuggets. Craig earns his 5th foul vs Irving but remains in at 5:34. Murray checks in for the Nuggets at 5:15 and only 'Sap/Barton remain on the bench amongst Denver's starters. 'Sap is in at the five minute mark, up by seven. A horrendous possession by Denver leads to a 24 second violation with 4:23 to go.

Big Honey, with the stuff on Horford and the dime to Harris for three and the lead is double figures for the first time all night with 4:01 remaining. Harris/Morris make six in double digits for Denver. The starters are now in tact for the Nuggets who lead by 12 after a Harris layup at 3:38. Denver is playing with poise and the C's look like the youthful, rattled team that by all media accounts (at least if you pay any attention to that hot gahbage emanating from Connecticut) should be adjectives utilized only to describe the league's fourth youngest team, the Nuggets. The lead is still ten, now with 2:10 to play. Murray has two straight turnovers on one handed passes and the lead is eight after a dunk by Smart. Barton and Jokic are seen arguing on the sideline after Barton failed to follow through in a cut, leading to a turnover by Jokic, which is once again, not a great look. A Kyrie three cuts it to five with just over a minute to play before a no-look dime by Jokic to Barton results in an easy two. Jokic to Millsap for the four point play and that should just about do it. 'Sap makes seven in double digits for Denver. Barton says "hold my green beer" and once again passes it away, resulting in two for the C's. The lead is seven with 13.7 seconds remaining so that's trivial in the end but Barton did the Nuggets zero favors in the second half. See you next year Celtics. Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +33 as they win 114-105 in Massachusetts.

Nikola Jokic: +33 Jamal Murray: +5 Gary Harris: +14 Monte Morris: +12 Paul Millsap: +12 Mason Plumlee: +1 Malik Beasley: +6 Will Barton: +13 Torrey Craig: +10 Isaiah Thomas: +1 Jared Vanderbilt: +0 Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: +N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A

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The Nuggets Win!

Final Thoughts: Stephens let Kyrie sit far too long prior to re-inserting him in the fourth but Denver earned this W from start to finish.

TPM™ for the next game will likely be published Friday afternoon as I have the immense pleasure of attending a concert featuring 74 year old Nick Mason, drummer from Pink Floyd & his band "Saucerful of Secrets" Thursday night, performing music from the '67-'72 era of Pink Floyd, something that by and large has been ignored in terms of touring, in the 50 years since it was created. I'm beyond excited!

As a result, Thursday's game will be data only and published Friday afternoon, while Friday's game will also be data only but will be published on time, just after the games end.

The Nuggets clinch a playoff birth for the first time since 2013.

Denver will most likely once again reside in a tie for first place in the Western Conference after tonight but due to the Warriors ownership of the tiebreaker (thus far) The Nuggets will technically be in second, as GS leads the H2H series 2-1 with one game remaining between t5he two. The next two tiebreakers are division record and conference record so if Denver should win the final encounter in Oakland and find themselves in a tie for first at the end of the season, they will most likely still own both of those tiebreakers and as a result, finish first. A LOT has to go right for that to happen so it's likely a moot point but currently anyway, Denver owns the 2nd and third tiebreakers.

I was off by one measly point in my pre-game prediction (that is if you were to revers the scores ascribed to each team.) I predicted 115-105 Boston and it was 114-105 Denver.

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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