Perhaps the prototype for a "small-ball" starting five.

Speaking of small-ball, these characters are definitely two of my two favorite former Celtics.

Keepin' the seat warm for Barton, who seems to be in a best case time-frame in terms of returning from an injury that required surgery. He should be back in the lineup by around December 15th.

Nuggets vs Boston: Denver's D, Deceptively Dismal

Ok, now hear me out. I'm not saying this to be contrarian or controversial and dismal is perhaps too strong a word but alliteration. I think they’ve improved slightly by virtue of having a healthy Millsap and another year of seasoning for the young core but more realistically its just that the rest of the league is getting exploited in the way only Denver seemed to last year, since the Nuggets were/are more about playing passing lanes than traditional "D-ing up" their man, clutching/grabbing like the Warriors/Jazz in recent years, which is no longer acceptable following the freedom of movement act of 2018. As a result, the Nuggets defensive appearance this year is more analogous to being the tallest lilliputian than it is to being the giant of Lilliput. In short, the rule changes seem to have helped Denver more than most teams.

Over the past two seasons only two teams managed to hold their opponent under the century mark as an average, for the season. Remarkably, both teams (Utah and San Antonio) did so both seasons. Both teams are struggling in comparison this year out of the gate. In the case of San Antonio that is somewhat to be expected when you substitute arguably the best defensive player on the planet in Kawhi Leonard and a still-capable defender in Danny Green for an offensive-minded guy like Demar DeRozan but Utah is basically the same squad as before, as are the defensive philosophies for both teams. What's not the same are the numbers. Here are the offensive/defensive points per game by year for these two teams respectfully:

Season:     OPPG:   DPPG: Spurs

2018-'19    113.9   110.8

2017-'18    102.7   99.8

2016-'17    105.3   98.1

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Season:    OPPG:   DPPG: Jazz

2018-'19   109.8   108.7

2017-'18   104.1   99.8

2016-'17   100.7   96.8

The Spurs are averaging an incredible 11.2 more ppg, while allowing an equally mind-boggling 11 more ppg. The Jazz are averaging 5.7 more ppg while allowing 8.9 more ppg. To put it plainly, these two franchises will have to abandon their former defensive philosophies to conform to the way the game is being called this season and has been trending towards over the course of the past several years. San Antonio is doing a better job of it in the early going and Utah is struggling as a result of failure to do so.

Additionally, in 2015-'16, six teams held their opponent under 100 ppg on the year so obviously this is a trend. Only Denver's opponent tonight, Boston is doing so at this point in the 2018-'19 season.

It is not Denver's defense that should strike fear into the heart of their opponents, it's the fact that their obviously capable offense has yet to start clicking, as seems to be the case every season until around December 15th, since the Nuggets tend to focus more of their scarce practice time in the early season and spend nearly all of their training camp, focusing on defensive drills. When you add in the fact that offensive specialists Will Barton and Isaiah Thomas should be returning from injury at or around the same time, we can expect the offense to be firing on all cylinders and yes, the rest of the league should most definitely see Denver as a legitimate problem; it's just not their defense which makes it so.

When last these two teams squared off in game 50 of last season, Denver enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players, led by Trey Lyles +14, Nikola Jokic +19, Jamal Murray +20 & Will Barton 24. Two players were in the red for that encounter, led by Kenneth Faried's -5, en route to a tough-luck loss, 111-110. Denver was playing without Millsap and Boston without Hayward. Ally was lovely as usual in a Sapphire Blue (shameless self promotion) smock. In a tale of two halves, the good guys trailed by 11 at the break but outscored the C's by ten in the second stanza. Coming into that game the Nuggets were 27-2 when leading after three. Following the contest their record in such instances would be 27-3. In a similar fashion to what befell Donovan Mitchell & Utah in the Nuggets most recent game, In game 50 vs Boston last season, the wind was taken out of Denver's sails in the fourth quarter when Plumlee was lost to injury and they never quite recovered. The primary story of the game however was three point shooting, where Denver went just 10-33 while Boston shot a blistering 17-36.

As for this game, on paper this should be amongst the toughest tests for the Nuggets thus-far in the still-young season. Only Golden State can stake claim to this honor as the World Champions. Denver will hope for a similar outcome to that match-up. When you play a high quality team like the Celtics, you hope to come away with three things: 1) The W, no matter how ugly or beautiful it comes. 2) No injuries. 3) No bad habits created. I mention the latter as they seem to come more readily as a team searches for answers to questions tacitly posed, only by upper echelon teams (Houston last season comes to mind as an analog) when in reality they should be focused more on their individual/team strengths/weaknesses, than those of top tier opponents, especially those which the team won't often face, such as Boston. Denver as a very young team, still hasn't proven that they aren't that group which gets inside of their own head following a let-down, as was the case in the sluggish games to follow the Houston defeats last year. If Denver DOES overcome this obstacle, I'm willing to finally call them legitimate contenders but I see that as growth which will take place in the coming years, not necessarily this season.

Boston represents the top threat in the eastern conference not just this year but for many to come. They have a championship blend of emerging youth in Brown/Tatum/Smart and excellent veterans in Hayward/Horford/Irving. The starting five is formidable; the bench, deep. Their coaching is top notch. They will beat your ass if you allow it. The Celtics play a hard-nosed style and attempt to slow the pace to a crawl, making it a half-court game where they are amongst the leagues best. They spread the wealth around in a similar manner as do the nuggets, with six players averaging over double figures in scoring. In a game such as this, Denver has very little room for error but what they have in their favor is a keen ability to play to the level of competition. That's often frustrating as it works in reverse, vs the Cavs or Bulls of the league but vs a tough Celtics team at home, I like the Nuggets odds tonight.

Prediction: Denver 101 - Boston 93

Go Nuggets!

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well s CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Boston Celtics Roster

Denver Nuggets Roster

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Millsap is questionable tonight with an ankle injury. Finally, Barton had successful surgery on his abductor and hip. He will be evaluated for return in mid-December. As for Boston, Nada, which is welcome news for a team that played without Hayward last season.

Data: Open this link in a new tab for the definition of TPM™

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TPM™ Game 10 BOS

Jamal Murray: +37

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +20

Gary Harris: +13

Malik Beasley: -1

Torrey Craig: -3

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: N/A

Will Barton: N/A

Juancho Hernangomez: -3

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +1

Trey Lyles: +13

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +33

Mason Plumlee: +4

Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 10 games +158

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 10 games +130

Gary Harris: 10 games +160

Malik Beasley: 10 games +26

Torrey Craig: 9 games -5

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 3 games -2

Will Barton: 2 games +33

Juancho Hernangomez: 9 games +15

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 10 games +82

Trey Lyles: 10 games +75

Tyler Lydon: 4 games +1

Nikola Jokic: 10 games +196

Mason Plumlee: 10 games +74

Thomas Welsh: 3 games -1

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +15.80

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +13.00

Gary Harris: +16.00

Malik Beasley: +2.60

Torrey Craig: -0.56

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: -0.67

Will Barton: +16.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +1.67

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +8.20

Trey Lyles:+7.50

Tyler Lydon: +0.25

Nikola Jokic: +19.60

Mason Plumlee: +7.40

Thomas Welsh: -0.33

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 9:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets trot out their injury-replacement starting five, consisting of The Blue Arrow, Just Gary Harris, Torrey FUCKING Craig, The Anchorman & Big Honey. The C's counter with Irving, Tatum, Brown, Hayward & Horford. Glad to see Millsap giving it a go but I hope he's actually healthy enough to be productive and not lose the momentum he's gained over the past week. Jokic wisely forfeits the opening tip, ensuring a Nuggets victory. Denver looks sluggish and Boston determined, early. The C's are red-hot and lead 10-2 as they head to the first break at 9:16. Juancho is in for Craig very early as a result. Stop kidding yourself Malone. Murray drills two in a row from distance, cutting the lead to four. Everyone is teeing off on Juancho unfortunately. Murray is already in double figures as he's scored 10 of 12 Denver points, at 6:25. Somebody PLEASE talk to Jokic about taking the ridiculous fouls when a man gets by him in the open court. Screw it, Jokic I'm talking at you!

Murray has once again been careless with the ball offensively and he's giving up nearly as much as he's providing. The score is Boston 27, Murray 12, The rest of the Nuggets two at 4:17. Denver is struggling to defend the perimeter but Boston is simply focused and making jumpers as a result. Beasley and Lyles are in for Denver at 4:15. Jokic picks up his second bad foul and is forced to sit, shortly there-after, as Plumlee checks in. Boston looks like an excellent defensive team, in case anyone is looking for a frame of reference as to what one looks like. Morris is in for Murray at 1:45, trailing by 16. This has been a forgettable quarter but Boston can't shoot like this all night. The Nuggets are paced in TPM by Murray +8 as they trail 34-19 after one.

Qtr2- The Nuggets are going to require life out of their star center for the first time in eight games, if they hope to get back into this one. Monte Morris is picking up the intensity on both ends of the court, in the meantime. Denver will take it. The lead is 11 at 10:35. He hits Harris for an open three and Denver quickly cuts it to a manageable eight with 10:18 to go. Monte is the steadying force Denver desperately needed here in the 2nd period. One of my favorite UFC fighters, Raquel "Rocky" Pennington, from Colorado Springs apparently took and made the pre-game free-throw tonight. Monte hits Plumlee on a look-away alley-oop and Denver cuts it to six on the strength of a 9-0 run. For all they are doing well, movement without the ball is not prevalent with this bench unit for the Nuggets. The starters begin filtering back in for Denver at 7:45, down by just six. Beasley is struggling on both ends vs the length of Tatum. Jokic still has yet to take a shot with only 5:54 to play in the half. He finally is forced to, as he's wide open under the rim on a good look from Beasley but he's fouled so he still has no official shots. It's amazing how much better Denver's D looks now that the crazy shots for Boston aren't falling but in all honesty, their defense is far more sound at the moment.

Jokic is finding other ways to assert himself; I just wish he'd realize how much better the team is when he's a scoring threat. Big Honey finally scores at 3:30 and the lead is five for the Celtics. I swear, the "who's ball?" call and response has GOT to go! Here's a hint Kyle Speller: If you have to ask twice due to lack of audience participation, it's a dead-end bit. The Blue Arrow already has 21 points for Denver. Jokic is once again on 3D pace in a very ho-hum fashion but his defense has been more solid tonight than in recent games. Harris becomes the second Nugget to reach double digits in scoring. Murray has a welcome 23 first half points for Denver. Malone wisely replaces Jokic with Plumlee with a little under a minute to go, down just two. 'Sap sticks a three and Denver unbelievably leads by two with ten seconds to play. The lead is short lived as the en fuego Kyrie Irving nails a corner three. No players for either squad are in any sort of serious, individual foul trouble. Denver is paced in TPM by Harris +10, Murray +15 & Jokic +21 as they trail by two, 56-54 at the half.

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Qtr3- The Nuggets need only to remain fundamentally sound as they were in the second period and not allow anyone other than Kyrie to regain the zone and they should be golden. UCWIDT? Jokic gets yet another bad foul, mere seconds into the 2nd half. Malone finally decides to value winning over being correct and he elects to start Juancho over Craig. The young Spaniard immediately hits a three and the Nuggets lead, then allows one as is his wont. He makes up for the latter with a brilliant chase-down block, as is also his wont. If Juancho continues to trade good/bad at least he's doing something - spacing the floor, in the process. It's knotted up at 61 with 9:25 to play. Smart is Smarting after catching an inadvertent chicken wing from Big Honey. Murray now has a season high 27 with 8:22 to go in a tied 3rd period. Jokic picks up his fourth foul, this time on an actual basketball play and he must sit. Learn from this young man, I beg of you! Denver is incredibly, in the bonus with 7:11 to play and a four point lead. That's the stuff.

There have been numerous phantom calls in this game, going against both teams. Marlowe once again mistakes an 18 foot J for a three. Harris is getting bounced around like a pin-ball tonight. He nets an &-1 nonetheless and Denver leads by two at 5:05. Boston is going to the punch-a-Plum strategy early and why not, as he misses two. Harris sheepishly returns the favor, while wearing a shit-eating-grin on his face vs Robert Williams, whomever that is. To his credit, expert free-thrower Robert Williams sinks 1-2. The pace has come to a screeching halt as Smart gives Boston the lead at the line with 4:42 to play. Boston is sans-doubt getting the good end of the whistle at present, as if the refs have grown tired of calling fouls on them. They honestly could be called for clutching/grabbing on each and every play. I'm surprised Denver hasn't played Monte alongside Murray in the second half. Denver leads by one with 2:15 to go. Millsap is now the third Nugget to reach double figures in scoring. Monte checks in and immediately contributes 6 points and an assist in under two minutes on the floor, as Denver leads by five with under a minute to play. Denver is paced in TPM by Harris +13, Morris +15, Murray +24 and Jokic +26, as they lead 88-81 after three.

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Qtr4- The Celtics still have Irving so this game is far from final. Tatum's length in the post is a real weapon for Boston. The C's are again going to the punch-a-Plum strategy which this time around, despite it's temporary fruitfulness, I question them wasting fouls in this manner so early. Boston now has two fouls with 10:10 to play. Perhaps they reckon they can't avoid fouling so they may as well foul the right guys. Lyles becomes the fourth Nugget to surpass ten points on the night. The lead for Denver is four after Jokic is ruled guilty of goal-tending for likely the first time in his career. Irving/Murray have matching 29 point nights thus-far in what has been one hell of a game. The Murray/Morris unit I was calling for is now on the court for Denver. The other Morris, the one who plays for the bad guys, earns an offensive foul and a T when the preferable Morris steps in front of him, drawing a charge. Denver is going almost exclusively with the Murray/Jokic P&R now and they lead by eight, after a Jamal Murray three from said set, brings the Pepsi Can fans out of their seats.

He has a career high 40 with 6:46 remaining. Denver is now the beneficiary of the no calls on obvious hacks, as often happens for the aggressor. With that being said, this has been a poorly officiated game all the way around. The officails have been equal-opportunity amateurs. Denver leads by seven with 5:31 to go. What a ball game! The refs have mow chosen to swallow their whistles and if they are not careful, ugliness could commence. Jamal finishes an insane drive where he jumped from Aurora, levitated, double clutched and sunk it like a boss. Smart flops with 3 minutes to go and these god-awful refs bought it. The Blue Arrow can not be contained! He now has 46, as Denver leads by seven with under two minutes remaining. Another manly drive my Murray and he's got 48 vs the best defensive team in the league. This point guard show-down was a joy to behold. Denver is paced in TPM by Lyles/Harris +13, Morris +20, Jokic +33 & Murray +37 as they earn an impressive victory 117-107, after trailing by as much as 18.

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Final Thoughts: This Nuggets team is not afraid. They EXPECT to win. I haven't been able to say that with any modicum of confidence since 2009. It's nice to see Murray have his inaugural break-out game prior to X-mas for a change. Denver has now won 13 straight in the Mile High City. Big Honey progresses in TPM for the first time in eight games.

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The Nuggets Win!

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