Future Laker Anthony Davis will sit this one out for the second of three meetings with Denver thus-far.

And this will never happen, not on a rental, so let's stop talking about it.

The Band may NEVER be back together! Murray is still out with a nasty ankle injury.

Nuggets vs Pelicans III: If you don't feel for fans of this Pels team right now, you have no soul.

When last these two teams squared off in game 16 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from five players led by Nikola Jokic: +30. Remarkably, no one was in the red for that match-up as the Nuggets lost 115-125 in the Crescent City. On that evening in November, Randle/Mirotic/Davis combined for 81. On this night in January, exactly zero of the aforementioned players will be available for New Orleans.

As for this game, The Pels are like a wounded street dog, quite literally in terms of the myriad injuries but also with the underwhelming record, their superstar player's imminent departure and rumors of a move to Seattle with which to contend, this motley crew gave Houston all they could handle in earning an impressive victory last night.

This is often the case when a team loses a player or players; the bench squad bands together and is able to impress for a few games running on moxie & adrenaline alone and clearly the honeymoon period is still very much in play. They will inevitably falter if they don't get healthy soon but the point is, Denver has to play their absolute best ball tonight if they expect to escape Louisiana with a W. They CAN NOT afford to look past this team with looming revenge vs Houston on their mind.

Now here are some numbers you can use:

New Orleans gives up 115.1 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 105.9

The Pelicans average 116.7 PPG offensively to the Nuggets 111.6

This results in a net rating for New Orleans of +1.5 and +5.7 for Denver

New Orleans is 15-8 at home while Denver is 12-11 on the road

In terms of conference record, The Pelicans are 14-18 to the Nuggets 20-10 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved as the Western Conference is as much as ever, the stiffer competition.

Denver of course is second in the Western Conference standings, 1.5 games behind the Warriors while New Orleans currently resides in 12th place in the Western Conference, 13.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)
NOP: RPG 46.9 APG 26.8 SPG 7.35 BPG 5.73 FG% .482 FT% .772 3% .352

DEN: RPG 46.8 APG 27.1 SPG 7.84 BPG 4.47 FG% .470 FT% .756 3% .355

The numbers on whole are relatively even (w/l splits aside) but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone.

To that end, Denver has won 17 of their last 20 & seven of their last 10 while New Orleans has been victorious in just eight of their last 20 games & only four of their last 10.

For this young Nuggets group, individual consistency is simply not a thing so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night.

With that said, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry; a natural scorer/creator and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without Murray, I.T. and MPJ.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, Denver has struggled mightily this season to defend the big men for New Orleans. That will be obviously mitigated by injury tonight but Okafor is still a capable offensive player. Obviously, the primary concerns are looking past the team in disarray towards the unsolvable Rockets in the next game while playing an opponent with it's backs against the wall.

Prediction: Denver (lap ) 115 - New Orleans 107

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your eardrums.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

New Orleans Pelicans Roster

Coach: Alvin "Not As Pretty As Barbara Palvin" Gentry

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Trevon "Had An Open Bunny But He" Bluiett	SG	23	6' 6"	198 lbs	Xavier	G-Money
2	"Threein" Ian Clark	SG	27	6' 3"	175 lbs	Belmont	$1,512,601
23	Anthony 'The Brow" Davis	PF	25	6' 10"	253 lbs	Kentucky	$25,434,263
13	Cheick "Please" Diallo	PF	22	6' 9"	220 lbs	Kansas	$1,544,951
12	Tim "Clyde" Frazier	PG	27	6' 1"	170 lbs	Penn State	$1,512,601
44	Solomon "Grundy" Hill	SF	27	6' 7"	225 lbs	Arizona	$12,252,928
11	Jrue "Sp? #2" Holiday	PG	28	6' 4"	205 lbs	UCLA	$25,976,111
15	Frank "Crank" Jackson	PG	20	6' 3"	205 lbs	Duke	$1,378,242
33	Wesley "The Great One" Johnson	SF	31	6' 7"	215 lbs	Syracuse	$6,134,520
21	"Vicarious" Darius Miller	SF	28	6' 8"	225 lbs	Kentucky	$2,205,000
3	"The Other" Nikola Mirotic	PF	27	6' 10"	250 lbs	The Other Sř̩bija	$12,500,000
55	E'Twaun "Less Is" Moore	G	29	6' 4"	191 lbs	Purdue	$8,808,685
8	Jahlil "The Smoothie King Center" Okafor	C	22	6' 11"	275 lbs	Duke	$1,567,707
4	Elfrid "Kid Gloves" Payton	PG	24	6' 4"	185 lbs	Louisiana-Lafayette	$3,000,000
30	Julius "Man-Handle" Randle	PF	23	6' 9"	250 lbs	Kentucky	$8,641,000

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	27	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$11,830,358
25	"Mutant" Malik Beasley	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$1,773,840
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	27	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
2	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	23	6' 2"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	24	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$16,517,857
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	23	6' 9"	230 lbs	Espana	$2,166,360
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	23	7' 0"	250 lbs	Gotham	$24,605,181
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	22	6' 10"	225 lbs	Syracuse	$1,874,640
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	23	6' 10"	234 lbs	Kentucky	$3,364,249
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	33	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$29,230,769
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	23	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,349,383
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	21	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$3,499,800
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	28	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$12,917,808
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	20	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$2,894,160
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	29	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,512,601
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	19	6' 9"	214 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	22	7' 0"	255 lbs	UCLA	G-Money

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Murray is also out with a badly twisted ankle. Harris is questionable with recurring leg ailments. WOW! That was short! As for NOLA, whoa boy! Moore is resting, Davis is maybe injured / maybe remaining healthy for a trade, Payton and Randle are both out with ankle injuries and Mirotic is out with a calf strain.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 50 NO

Jamal Murray: Injured

Isaiah Thomas: Injured

Monte Morris: +30

Brandon Goodwin: N/A

Gary Harris: +7

Malik Beasley: +18

Torrey Craig: -1

Will Barton: +2

Juancho Hernangomez: +2

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: G-League

Paul Millsap: +9

Trey Lyles: -2

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +30

Mason Plumlee: +7

Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 47 games +803

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 50 games +589

Brandon Goodwin: 14 games +21

Nick Young: 3 games -2

Gary Harris: 32 games +448

Malik Beasley: 50 games +346

Torrey Craig: 46 games +1

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 11 games +113

Juancho Hernangomez: 48 games +4

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt:1 games +3

Paul Millsap: 42 games +354

Trey Lyles: 48 games +262

Tyler Lydon: 19 games -1

Nikola Jokic: 49 games +1129

Mason Plumlee: 50 games +400

Thomas Welsh: 9 games +18

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +17.09

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +11.78

Brandon Goodwin: +1.50

Nick Young: -0.67

Gary Harris: +14.00

Malik Beasley: +6.92

Torrey Craig: +0.02

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +10.27

Juancho Hernangomez: +0.08

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: 3.00

Paul Millsap: +8.43

Trey Lyles: 5.46

Tyler Lydon: -0.05

Nikola Jokic: +23.04

Mason Plumlee: +8.00

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 45:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 11th iteration of the starting five, consisting of Morris, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic, The Pels counter with people named Jackson, Holiday, Miller, Hill & Okafor. Clearly, someone finally steered Malone in the direction of my piece (or Denver Stiffs... hell, reality in general.) Craigsanity is finally over! 7-0 Denver after one minute of play. Okafor is still big but NOLA is 0-5 in the early-going. Both teams are cold for that matter as it's just 7-4 at 8:20. The Mutant is in for Barton who just nabbed his 2nd foul at 7:50, up by just two. It's even-Steven at 13 with 6:45 to go. Jokic is struggling to defend Jah in the post. NO leads by three at the time of the first break at 5:37.

Plumlee replaces Millsap at this time. Denver is 0-6 from downtown. Craig enters at 4:10 with a one point lead and for once I'm ok with his utilization. The Nuggets lead by five on the strength of an 8-0 run. Mason obliterates Jackson on a closeout. remember this strategy vs Harden! I'm not being even remotely facetious in saying this. Denver is starting to gain traction and lead by seven with 2:27 remaining, as Big Honey is first to reach double digits for the good guys. Goodwin, followed soon by Lyles enter at around the two minute mark, as The Joker gets his first breather. Brandon has the look of a player intent of making a defensive impact in the NBA. Denver is paced in TPM by Morris +8 as they lead 29-26 after one.

Qtr2- Barton/Harris are scoreless on a combined 0-4 shooting from the floor (all shots coming from downtown.) Juancho is in to begin the second period. Denver isn't just missing their threes, their nearly failing to draw iron each time, in going 1-10 thus-far. It's knotted up again after a failed close-out by Lyles on a three attempt/make. Juancho is more defensively active than we've seen in quite some time. The Nuggets lead by just two at the time of the first break at 6:31. Morris FINALLY sticks a three for Denver who now lead by six at 5:00, on the strength of an 8-2 run, in which Millsap & Big Honey have been the catalysts.

Barton is sloppy with the ball on two straight possessions, coupled with lazy close-outs by Will and NOLA now leads by two at 2:22. We'll be back in two and two, after the commercial break. Deuces wild; if only three's were. Jokic is definitely on 3D watch with 12-6-4. Harris is NOT AT ALL moving right tonight. I advocate for sitting him in the second half and inserting Beasley. Morris makes two in double figures for the Nuggets. The crowd rightly gives the Pels a standing ovation as their team leads going into the half. Barton/Harris are a combined 1-10 from the floor! Denver is led in TPM by Morris +17 as they trail 53-56 at the half.

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Qtr3- The Joker has to figure out how to better defend Okafor's surprisingly similar post game, without fouling and Denver needs to start hitting some of the numerous open looks they are getting from beyond the arc offensively. Barton finally scores; a layup of the &-1 variety. Millsap makes three in double figures as the Nuggets lead by two at 10:41. Nikola's defensive footwork vs Jah appears to be better in this half. Denver leads by five on the strength of an 8-0 run. Jokic has had exceptionally active hands tonight, even collecting a couple of blocks to go with his usual steals. Monte has come to play tonight and it makes you wonder how much better this team could have been in the last game, had he slid in for Craig in the starting unit, as now appears to be the obvious play. Another &-1 for Barton and Denver leads by eight at 7:32 as they enter the penalty.

Harris is now 1-9 from the floor (0-5 from three.) NOLA cuts it to five on a three by Miller in which Harris had no physical chance to close out on and I've no idea why Beasley has yet to check in for him at 5:14. Malik is in fact now checking in at this point but for Barton. Jrue Holiday is ONE HELLUVA defensive player! Gary FINALLY drills one from distance. Make that two in a row for Gary from downtown. The lead is up to 10 after The Anchorman is true on one of two from the charity stripe. NOLA is still playing with tremendous effort and has no intention of going softly into the southern night. Malik makes four in double figures. Denver is paced in TPM by Millsap +10, Beasley +11, Jokic +21 & Morris +28 as they lead after three.

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Qtr4- The Joker is still on 3D watch with 16-8-8. Monte has a tremendous line as well of 20-5-5. Craig allows a three after being sucked into the interior as is his wont, failing to close out and Malone calls a quick timeout just 34 seconds into the fourth period. I hate these early starts. Thew throw off my whole routine. The lead is down to six as Denver's bench squad is defensively disinterested. Monte is in early for Craig and I'm now convinced that Coach Malone is reading TPM. The Nuggets are 0-6 to open the period and they lead by just five at 8:50. Lyles surrenders yet another three and it's a two point game on the strength of an 11-2 run by the Pels. Millsap/Harris/Jokic check in at 8:15 of a two point game to close this one out, along with Beasley and Morris.

Big Honey has his 3D as the rebound and assists came in quick succession and Denver leads by two at 6:40. NOLA believes they are going to win tonight and it's a palpable feeling. The Nuggets lead is four with 4:15 remaining. Jokic is denied continuation on what should have clearly been an &-1 situation. The teams trade threes and it is still a four point game with under two minutes to go. Jrue makes a well-contested three and it's a one point game at 1:32! Jokic backs Jah down for two and Denver leads by three with under a minute remaining. Next time down, exact same play, exact same result and that should just about do it. Jokic is clutch and it's no longer deniable! Harris boards a missed three and this baby is ova! Nikola finishes with 20-13-10, Monte with 20-7-7. Denver is paced in TPM by Beasley +18, Jokic/Morris +30 as they win 105-99 in Louisiana.

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Final Thoughts: The Rockets are going the fuck down in D-town! Enough is enough! Yes, NOW is the time to focus on Houston. Denver goes 12-4 in January, tying their all-time best record for this month. Another victory lap in the snow for myself and my Min-Pin mascot Mazzy.

The Nuggets Win!

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.
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