FanPost

TPM™ 2019-'20 Game #62 vs Cleveland

The good guys

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Their adversaries

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Nuggets vs Cavs II "__"

  • I've finally completed my annual dalliance with music and video production which has occupied the majority of my time since X-mas, so as of 2/28/2020 the analysis portion of TPM returns. If you are interested in the music I've been publishing, it is all available for free on one playlist, at the following link: "Rope on Fire" original music and videos. I'll not be pandering for anyone to like or subscribe to anything, nor will I be imploring anyone to smash or slap any buttons (I don't even use end-card promotions or subscription buttons, in favor of videos playing out in their entirety) but if you are into experimental, progressive psychedelia, you may enjoy it. What you do with your button on your free time is between you and the Google spy-data-cache in the deserts of Nevada/Utah.
  • However, tonight's game will be data only due to family obligations
BREAKING NEWS!
Screenshot

When last these two teams squared off in game - of this season the Nuggets enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from - players led by -. - players for Denver, led by - were in the red for that match-up, as the Nuggets

In that game,

(The previous section comes with contributive information and quotes from ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game,

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

  • - gives up 109.4 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 107.5
  • _ averages 102.0 PPG offensively to Denver's 110.7
  • This results in a net rating for _ of -7.4 and +3.2 for Denver
  • _ is 9-20 from home while Denver is 17-12 away from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.
  • In terms of conference record, _ is 15-23 to Denver's 26-12 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition
  • Denver of course is 3rd in the Western Conference standings, 6.5 games behind the Lakers, while CHA currently resides in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, 31.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

____: RPG 43.2 APG 23.7 SPG 6.5 BPG 4.2 FG% 43.1 3% 34.6 FT% 74.2

DEN: RPG 44.6 APG 26.5 SPG 8.0 BPG 4.7 FG% 47.0 3% 35.7 FT% 77.5

These numbers are in many ways meaningless and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)


There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example,

Prediction: Nuggets -

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

(leaving this up despite the expert tank-job being exhibited by the Warriors. Clearly Dallas is now a playoff team.)

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Coach: Michael "Post" Malone


Name POS Age HT WT College Salary
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/6579.png
Will "The People's Champion" Barton 5 SF 29 6' 5" 181 lbs Memphis $12,776,786
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/4397102.png
Bol "Bilbo Baggins" Bol 10 C 20 7' 2" 220 lbs Oregon --
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/4230557.png
Vlatko "Slovenian Cyborg" Cancar 31 SF 22 6' 8" 236 lbs -- $898,310
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2528693.png
Torrey "FUCKING" Craig 3 SF 29 6' 7" 221 lbs USC Upstate $2,000,000
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2489530.png
Troy "The Mole #2" Daniels 30 SG 28 6' 4" 205 lbs Virginia Commonwealth $1,620,564
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3923250.png
PJ "Bol" Dozier 35 PG 23 6' 6" 205 lbs South Carolina --
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2991070.png
Jerami "The Co-Host" Grant 9 PF 25 6' 8" 210 lbs Syracuse $9,346,153
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2999547.png
"Just" Gary Harris 14 SG 25 6' 4" 210 lbs Michigan State $17,839,286
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3112335.png
Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic 15 C 25 7' 0" 284 lbs -- $27,504,630
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3015.png
Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap 4 PF 35 6' 7" 257 lbs Louisiana Tech $30,350,000
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3059310.png
Monte "Ratio" Morris 11 PG 24 6' 2" 183 lbs Iowa State $1,588,231
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3936299.png
Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray 27 PG 23 6' 4" 215 lbs Kentucky $4,444,746
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2488653.png
Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee 7 PF 30 6' 11" 254 lbs Duke $14,041,096
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/4278104.png
Michael "Half Man / Other Half, Also Man... Basically, All Man" Porter Jr. 1 PF 21 6' 10" 218 lbs Missouri $3,389,400
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3078284.png
Noah "Hands-A-Plenty" Vonleh 32 PF 24 6' 10" 257 lbs Indiana $2,000,000

Cleveland Cavaliers Roster

Coach: John Beilein

Name POS Age HT WT College Salary
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/4066367.png
Tyler Cook21 PF 22 6' 8" 255 lbs Iowa --
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2489716.png
Matthew Dellavedova18 PG 29 6' 3" 200 lbs Saint Mary's $9,607,500
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3102528.png
Dante Exum1 PG 24 6' 5" 214 lbs -- $9,600,000
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/4396907.png
Darius Garland10 PG 19 6' 1" 192 lbs Vanderbilt $6,400,920
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/6592.png
John Henson31 PF 29 6' 9" 219 lbs North Carolina $9,732,396
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/6448.png
Brandon Knight20 PG 28 6' 2" 182 lbs Kentucky $15,643,750
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3449.png
Kevin Love0 PF 31 6' 8" 251 lbs UCLA $28,942,830
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2530923.png
Alfonzo McKinnie28 SF 27 6' 7" 215 lbs Green Bay $1,588,231
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2580365.png
Larry Nance Jr.22 PF 27 6' 7" 245 lbs Wyoming $12,727,273
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3893016.png
Cedi Osman16 SF 24 6' 7" 230 lbs -- $2,907,143
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/4397140.png
Kevin Porter Jr.4 SG 19 6' 4" 203 lbs USC $1,290,960
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2595563.png
Levi Randolph6 SG 27 6' 5" 208 lbs Alabama --
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/4277811.png
Collin Sexton2 PG 21 6' 1" 190 lbs Alabama $4,764,960
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/6474.png
Tristan Thompson13 C 28 6' 9" 254 lbs Texas $18,539,130
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3912848.png
Dean Wade32 PF 23 6' 9" 228 lbs Kansas State --
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3906786.png
Dylan Windler9 SG 23 6' 6" 196 lbs Belmont $2,035,800
https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nba/players/full/4017838.png
Ante Zizic41 C 23 6' 10" 266 lbs -- $2,281,800

Update: Vonleh is questionable with an ankle injury. As for ___

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 62 CLE (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +20

Jamal Murray : +23

Will Barton: +7

Monte Morris: +4

Paul Millsap: +13

Gary Harris: +14

Jerami Grant: +4

Michael Porter Jr.: +11

Mason Plumlee: +7

Torrey Craig: -2

PJ Dozier: N/A

Noah Vonleh: N/A

Keita Bates-Diop: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

Troy Daniels: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 62 games +1660

Jamal Murray : 53 games +968

Will Barton: 55 games +598

Monte Morris: 62 games +641

Paul Millsap: 42 games +343

Gary Harris: 54 games +445

Jerami Grant: 62 games +492

Michael Porter Jr.: 45 games +209

Mason Plumlee: 49 games +295

Torrey Craig: 48 games +10

PJ Dozier: 20 games +86

Noah Vonleh: 3 games +7

Keita Bates-Diop: 2 games +6

Vlatko Cancar: 14 games +3

Troy Daniels: 0 games +0

Bol Bol: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +26.77

Jamal Murray: +18.26

Will Barton: +10.87

Monte Morris: +10.34

Paul Millsap: +8.17

Gary Harris: +8.24

Jerami Grant: +7.94

Michael Porter Jr.: +4.87

Mason Plumlee: +6.02

Torrey Craig: +0.21

PJ Dozier: +4.30

Noah Vonleh: +2.33

Keita Bates-Diop: +3.00

Vlatko Cancar: +0.21

Troy Daniels: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

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TPM Per-Minute Splits Through Game 55:

TPM-19_20-Individual-G55.png

TPM-19_20-Team-G55.png

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The __ counter with __

Denver is paced in TPM by __ as they __ after one.

Nikola Jokic: +0 Jamal Murray: +0 Will Barton: +0 Monte Morris: +0 Paul Millsap: +0 Gary Harris: +0 Jerami Grant: +0 PJ Dozier: +0 Mason Plumlee: +0 Michael Porter Jr: +0 Vlatko Cancar: +0 Torrey Craig: +0 Noah Vonleh: +0 Troy Daniels: +0

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Qtr2- The

Denver is paced in TPM by __ as they __ at the half.

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Qtr3- The __

Denver is paced in TPM by __ as they __after three.

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Qtr4- The

Denver is paced in TPM by __ as they __

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Final Thoughts:

  • Denver loses 96-102

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The Nuggets Win!

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We Suck Again!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 43 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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