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Nuggets vs Hornets II "Here's a thought; don't shit the bed!"

• I've finally completed my annual dalliance with music and video production which has occupied the majority of my time since X-mas, so as of 2/28/2020 the analysis portion of TPM returns. If you are interested in the music I've been publishing, it is all available for free on one playlist, at the following link: "Rope on Fire" original music and videos. I'll not be pandering for anyone to like or subscribe to anything, nor will I be imploring anyone to smash or slap any buttons (I don't even use end-card promotions or subscription buttons, in favor of videos playing out in their entirety) but if you are into experimental, progressive psychedelia, you may enjoy it. What you do with your button on your free time is between you and the Google spy-data-cache in the deserts of Nevada/Utah.

When last these two teams squared off in game 40 of this season the Nuggets enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from five players led by Nikola Jokic: +31. Three players for Denver, led by Torrey Craig: -4 were in the red for that match-up, as the Nuggets emerged victorious, by a final score of 100-86

In that game, P.J Dozier made his Nuggets debut and had a big second half filling in for injured point guard Jamal Murray. Murray exited the game with 1:32 remaining in the second quarter after rolling his left ankle. He was helped off the floor by teammates. The banged-up Nuggets were already without Gary Harris (groin) and Paul Millsap (bruised left knee).

Enter Dozier, who finished with 12 points in 13 minutes. He had a stretch in the second half where he scored nine straight for the Nuggets.

"I've been preparing for this my whole life," Dozier said. "I've been excited to have this opportunity. I hate that it had to happen under these circumstances. But (Murray) will be all right. I've just been trying to stay ready for this."

(The previous section comes with contributive information and quotes from ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, Denver will most likely rebound from their pathetic performance at home vs Golden State and they will most likely shit the bed AGAIN the next time they face a bad team following a stretch of games vs good teams. It's what young, immature and possibly "soft" NBA teams do. Please disprove this label you gave yourselves Nuggets and in the future, please keep things like that between yourselves in the locker room. It did you zero favors to discuss this with the media.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• CHA gives up 109.4 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 107.5

• CHA averages 102.0 PPG offensively to Denver's 110.7
  

• This results in a net rating for CHA of -7.4 and +3.2 for Denver

• CHA is 9-20 from home while Denver is 17-12 away from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, CHA is 15-23 to Denver's 26-12 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver of course is 3rd in the Western Conference standings, 6.5 games behind the Lakers, while CHA currently resides in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, 31.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

CHA: RPG 43.2 APG 23.7 SPG 6.5 BPG 4.2 FG% 43.1 3% 34.6 FT% 74.2

DEN: RPG 44.6 APG 26.5 SPG 8.0 BPG 4.7 FG% 47.0 3% 35.7 FT% 77.5

These numbers are in many ways meaningless and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, Charlotte has an unfair advantage in that they have clones within their roster. If the good one of them (presuming there is one) fouls out they can easily send them both to the locker room and pull the ol' switcheroo with their jerseys to keep whichever is the "good" one going. They used to try this with the brothers Zeller but the varying degrees of male pattern baldness combined with the fact that even the best of them (the one they call Cody) isn't all that viable, rendered this tactic ineffectual.

Prediction: Nuggets 127 - Charlotte 121

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

(leaving this up despite the expert tank-job being exhibited by the Warriors. Clearly Dallas is now a playoff team.)

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Coach: Michael "Post" Malone

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Will "The People's Champion" Barton 5	SF	29	6' 5"	181 lbs	Memphis	$12,776,786
	Keita "Bass-Drop" Bates-Diop 6	SF	24	6' 8"	229 lbs	Ohio State	$1,416,852
	Bol "Bilbo Baggins" Bol 10	C	20	7' 2"	220 lbs	Oregon	--
	Vlatko "Slovenian Cyborg" Cancar 31	SF	22	6' 8"	236 lbs	--	$898,310
	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig 3	SF	29	6' 7"	221 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
	PJ "Bol" Dozier 35	PG	23	6' 6"	205 lbs	South Carolina	--
	Jerami "The Co-Host" Grant 9	PF	25	6' 8"	210 lbs	Syracuse	$9,346,153
	"Just" Gary Harris 14	SG	25	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$17,839,286
	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic 15	C	25	7' 0"	284 lbs	--	$27,504,630
	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap 4	PF	35	6' 7"	257 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$30,350,000
	Monte "Ratio" Morris 11	PG	24	6' 2"	183 lbs	Iowa State	$1,588,231
	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray 27	PG	23	6' 4"	215 lbs	Kentucky	$4,444,746
	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee 7	PF	29	6' 11"	254 lbs	Duke	$14,041,096
	Michael "Half Man / Other Half, Also Man... Basically, All Man" Porter Jr. 1	PF	21	6' 10"	218 lbs	Missouri	$3,389,400
	Noah "Hands-A-Plenty" Vonleh 32	PF	24	6' 10"	257 lbs	Indiana	$2,000,000

Charlotte Hornets Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Dwayne "Paleo" Bacon 7	SG	24	6' 6"	221 lbs	Florida State	$1,618,520
	Nicolas "Rochambeau" Batum 5	SG	31	6' 9"	230 lbs	--	$25,565,217
	Bismack "Bitch-Slap" Biyombo 8	C	27	6' 8"	255 lbs	--	$17,000,000
	Miles "Lloyd" Bridges 0	SF	21	6' 6"	225 lbs	Michigan State	$3,755,400
	Devonte' "The Cracker" Graham 4	PG	24	6' 1"	195 lbs	Kansas	$1,416,852
	Willy "W=B?" Hernangomez 9	C	25	6' 11"	250 lbs	--	$1,676,735
	"Sir" Michael Kidd-Gilchrist "Of Gloucestershire" 14	SF	26	6' 6"	232 lbs	Kentucky	$13,000,000
	Caleb "C-Mart" Martin 10	SF	24	6' 5"	205 lbs	Nevada	$898,310
	Cody "HOLY FUCK AM I DRUNK ALREADY? I'M SEEING DOUBLE AND IT'S NOT EVEN NOON!" Martin 11	SF	24	6' 5"	205 lbs	Nevada	$1,173,310
	Jalen "Xavier" McDaniels 6	PF	21	6' 10"	205 lbs	San Diego State	$898,310
	Malik "Eminem" Monk 1	SG	21	6' 3"	200 lbs	Kentucky	$4,028,400
	Terry "PJ" Rozier 3	PG	25	6' 1"	190 lbs	Louisville	$19,894,737
	Kobi "Won Kanobe" Simmons 23	PG	22	6' 5"	180 lbs	Arizona	--
	PJ "Dozier" Washington 25	PF	21	6' 7"	230 lbs	Kentucky	$3,831,840
	"Carvin" Marvin Williams 2	PF	33	6' 8"	237 lbs	North Carolina	$15,006,250
	Cody "The Good-ish" Zeller 40	PF	27	7' 0"	240 lbs	Indiana	$14,471,910

Update: Vonleh is questionable with an ankle injury. As for CHA, Monk is suspended and Graham is a GTD with an ankle injury. At this point of the season, who isn't?

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 61 CHA (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +31

Jamal Murray : +12

Will Barton: +17

Monte Morris: +7

Paul Millsap: -4

Gary Harris: +11

Jerami Grant: +16

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Mason Plumlee: +4

Torrey Craig: +2

PJ Dozier: N/A

Noah Vonleh: N/A

Keita Bates-Diop: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

Troy Daniels: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 61 games +1640

Jamal Murray : 52 games +945

Will Barton: 54 games +591

Monte Morris: 61 games +637

Paul Millsap: 41 games +330

Gary Harris: 53 games +431

Jerami Grant: 61 games +488

Michael Porter Jr.: 44 games +198

Mason Plumlee: 48 games +288

Torrey Craig: 46 games +12

PJ Dozier: 20 games +86

Noah Vonleh: 3 games +7

Keita Bates-Diop: 2 games +6

Vlatko Cancar: 14 games +3

Troy Daniels: 0 games +0

Bol Bol: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +26.89

Jamal Murray: +18.17

Will Barton: +10.94

Monte Morris: +10.44

Paul Millsap: +8.05

Gary Harris: +8.13

Jerami Grant: +8.00

Michael Porter Jr.: +4.40

Mason Plumlee: +6.00

Torrey Craig: +0.26

PJ Dozier: +4.30

Noah Vonleh: +2.33

Keita Bates-Diop: +3.00

Vlatko Cancar: +0.21

Troy Daniels: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 55:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Hornets counter with Rozier, Bridges, Martin, Washington & Zeller. Even if they both play, I'll be referring to both Martin bro's (presumption on my part. No Idea who they are or if they're related TBH, though they do look vaguely similar) as one person because... Well it really doesn't matter now, does it? Christ I hate these early starts. The two teams take turns tossing treys for the first three buckets. Charlotte is concentrating on that particular facet of NBA ball and they lead by six at 7:30. Denver is finally mixing some D into their repertoire and the lead is three at the time of the first break. 6:16.

The ball movement has been tremendous on offense; just gotta get a handle on the switches, screens WRT three point shooting defensively. Monte Morris is first off the pine for the good guys at 5:10, trailing by five. Grant/Craig are next to enter at 3:51, now trailing by just two. Plumlee is next at 2:45 and it appears that Malone has attributed all of Denver's defensive woes vs Golden state to his favorite scapegoat, MPJ. The respective bench units for both teams are essentially trading buckets, despite this being a demonstrably defensive-minded Denver grouping. Martin, both of him, is playing for Charlotte as the period comes to a close.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic:+6 as they trail 31-34 after one.

Qtr2- The D is finally picking up for the Nuggets bench squad but the offense is completely and predictably stagnant. Strangely, Craig has been pretty good offensively and pretty bad on D. Barton joins Murray on the court amongst the starters, as the Nuggets trail by three at 8:51. A woman just got 'bowed in the beak by a Cody Zel-bow and there's a break in the action as she's tended to by the Hornets' trainer. The lead is two for the Hornets at 7:31 and Malone's minute-stretch distribution for Jokic/Millsap/Harris has continued to be an issue. 'Sap remains out as the other two return at 7:15, trailing by two. The Nuggets take their first lead on a three point play by Grant. Big Honey is the only player for Denver who has yet to score. Monte is enjoying a bounce-back game which is great to see.

The Nuggets lead by five on the strength of a VERY sudden 10-0 run. Jokic earns his second foul which is not good news. Barton looks better tonight than he has since his return from injury. Millsap finally enters at 5:15 and the starting five is in tact. Nikola finally scores and they lead by seven with 4:18 to play. Marlowe misuses superlative as is his wont, as a superlative to describe the Nuggets nine point lead at 1:31. Jokic who is inexplicably left out there, earns his third foul with under a minute to play. Inexcusable, coach Malone. As a result he is challenging the call but it doesn't appear that there is enough evidence to overturn the call. The call is confirmed; a compound-error for Malone. I can also confirm that Katy needs to work on her in-game loquaciousness. 'Sap is first to reach double digits for Denver who lead by nine with 18 ticks remaining.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic/Will Barton: +16 as they lead 60-51 at the half.

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Qtr3- The Hornets score the first five of the period prior to a three by Barton. He makes two in double digits for Denver. Jokic tries his best to earn a T after several no-calls in one possession result in the ball out of bounds (off him) and he reaches in on Zeller as Cody attempted to inbound. He mercifully is only given delay of game. It's getting rough between Jokic and Zeller, who is wisely attempting to get that 4th foul on Nikola. The lead is meanwhile, down to one at 7:45. Charlotte has all the momentum as they retake the lead on an &-1 at 7:39 by Graham. Jokic is incredibly heated and he gets that fourth foul on the offensive end, of his own accord. He's replaced by Plumlee at 7:08.

THIS is why taking those "only-Jokic" fouls to stop the fast breaks are inexcusable, although that's not something he's done tonight oddly. Charlotte leads by four on the strength of a 16-3 run to open the third. Denver takes the lead on a Plumlee hook at 5:40. The bench players are once again trickling in FAR too late, as the Nuggets trail by two at 3:15. This means Barton and Murray will get over-extended early and Jokic likely won't play until half way through the fourth, foul trouble or no. The end of third periods / start of 4th periods have been Denver's worst area of in-game management over the course of the last month or so. Morris makes three in double digits for Denver as they trail by four with 2:57 to go. Harris is STILL out there. He's finally replaced by Murray at 2:25. Jamal makes four in double digits for Denver soon-after.

Denver is paced in TPM by Will Barton: +21 as they trail 80-82 after three.

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Qtr4- The Nuggets tie things up with a manly tip in by Mason. He and the well-rested Jokic both have 4 fouls so I see no reason not to let The Joker play out the string. Denver's D is once again betraying them despite the aforementioned, defensive minded bench, as the Hornets now lead by five at 10:05. To his credit, Malone makes a solid in-game decision for a change and Jokic is in there after the timeout. This definitely doesn't have the feel of a game that Denver will win as they still trail by five at 8:52. Harris and Barton are inserted at 8:21. Harris makes five in double digits for Denver as he cuts it to three on a long J. Katy, you talk too much. I love you, but ease up on the caffeine. Zeller checks in and he and Jokic resume jockeying for position. Millsap remains on the bench as the Nuggets trail by two at 5:11. Barton, with the inbound pass off a Hornets player's derriere, results in an easy dunk and a tie game at 5:09. Katy redeems herself with a stinger-zinger WRT the Hornet's player not having a stinger on his "butt." Well done young lady. The starting five minus 'Sap are out there to close this one it seems. Charlotte is challenging a foul call on a play in which Martin boxed out an alley-oop-attempting Grant. No way this one is overturned. As predicted, no dice.

Denver is in the bonus from here on out. The Nuggets take a one point lead on a three by Murray. Jokic makes six in double digits for Denver as he has a 2D with 10/11/7 and Denver leads by two at 2:52. Jokic gets his fifth foul of the phantom variety at 2:41 and it's all knotted up. Both teams will be shooting free throws from here on out. Denver leads by one with under two minutes remaining. Grant extends the lead to three with an &-1 opportunity (missed FT) at 1:26. He makes seven in double digits for Denver. Charlotte cuts it to one with a quick dunk at 1:14. The Nuggets can't do their usual tactic of prevent offense here. They MUST get a good look, no matter when in the shot clock it occurs. Murray got a great look but missed and then Barton fouls Graham who'll shoot free throws. He drains both and Charlotte leads by one with just under a minute to go. A horrible foul by Graham in-kind, sends Barton to the charity stripe with 44 seconds to play. He makes both and Denver retakes the one point lead. Grant fouls Zeller, sending HIM to the line with 32 seconds to go. He ties it, going 1-2. Murray gets an improbable fade-away J to drain with 4.5 seconds to go and the Nuggets lead by two! Rozier misses a hero-ball three over Grant and this baby is ova!

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +31 as they hang on to win, 114-112

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Final Thoughts:

• No MPJ. Nuggets twitter is gonna lose their shit. My thoughts on the matter are that Malone is being far too heavy handed with this but what MPJ is likely putting on film defensively, is blatant indifference to the coaching WRT defense. Let's hope he's not the next Melo in this way.
• All in all it was a big win, as hard as it was to watch.
  
  

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The Nuggets Win!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 43 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

Denver Nuggets Nuggets vs Hornets coverage At The Hive