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Nuggets vs Warriors II "A Murray/Curry flurry?"

• I've finally completed my annual dalliance with music and video production which has occupied the majority of my time since X-mas, so as of 2/28/2020 the analysis portion of TPM returns. If you are interested in the music I've been publishing, it is all available for free on one playlist, at the following link: "Rope on Fire" original music and videos. I'll not be pandering for anyone to like or subscribe to anything, nor will I be imploring anyone to smash or slap any buttons (I don't even use end-card promotions or subscription buttons, in favor of videos playing out in their entirety) but if you are into experimental, progressive psychedelia, you may enjoy it. What you do with your button on your free time is between you and the Google spy-data-cache in the deserts of Nevada/Utah.
  

When last these two teams squared off in game 41 of this season the Nuggets enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from six players led by Nikola Jokic: +54. Only one player for Denver, Torrey Craig: -3 was in the red for that match-up, as the Nuggets eked out a road victory in overtime, by a final score of 134-131.

In that game, Denver got 31/5/7 from Barton and a near 3D from Jokic with 23/12/8, in fact he flirted with a 4D (he dubiously recorded a career high by a wide margin, of 9 Turnovers.) The Nuggets were without Murray/Harris/Millsap in that one but were able to emerge victorious, despite a spirited and balanced effort by the Warriors, led by the since-departed Alec Burks and his 25 points.

(The previous section usually comes with contributive information and quotes from ESPN game recaps but for whatever reason they didn't recap that night.)

As for this game, Curry may or may not make his long-awaited return so it's highly difficult to predict the outcome. Either way, with Thompson sidelined for the year, on paper the Warriors don't have a prayer in the Mile High City but if the first encounter between these two squads tells you anything, the game is demonstrably decided on the court, contrary to the opinions of number-crunchers everywhere.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• GSW gives up 115.0 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 107.4

• GSW averages 105.9 PPG offensively to Denver's 110.9
  

• This results in a net rating for GSW of -9.1 and +3.5 for Denver

• GSW is 6-24 away from home while Denver is 24-7 from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, GSW is 8-33 to Denver's 26-11 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver of course is 2nd in the Western Conference standings, 26-11 games behind the Lakers, while GSW currently resides in dead-last place in the Western Conference, 34 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

GSW: RPG 43.1 APG 25.3 SPG 8.4 BPG 4.7 FG% 43.5 FT% 80.8 3% 33.4

DEN: RPG 44.4 APG 26.6 SPG 8.1 BPG 4.7 FG% 47.0 FT% 77.6 3% 35.9

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, with Curry's availability up in the air, I actually hope he DOES play because this Nuggets team has a tendency to look past opponents they should beat and it would be unwise to predict anything but this occurring if they think that they'll have an easy go of things, without the star guard for Golden State on the court. With the brutal second half schedule looming for the Nuggets, I don't see that trend of indifference continuing as we approach playoff basketball because they simply can not afford to drop the gimme's.

Prediction: Nuggets 127 - Warriors 101

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

(leaving this up despite the expert tank-job being exhibited by the Warriors. Clearly Dallas is now a playoff team.)

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Coach: Michael "Post" Malone

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Will "The People's Champion" Barton 5	SF	29	6' 5"	181 lbs	Memphis	$12,776,786
	Keita "Bass-Drop" Bates-Diop 6	SF	24	6' 8"	229 lbs	Ohio State	$1,416,852
	Bol "Bilbo Baggins" Bol 10	C	20	7' 2"	220 lbs	Oregon	--
	Vlatko "Slovenian Cyborg" Cancar 31	SF	22	6' 8"	236 lbs	--	$898,310
	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig 3	SF	29	6' 7"	221 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
	PJ "Bol" Dozier 35	PG	23	6' 6"	205 lbs	South Carolina	--
	Jerami "The Co-Host" Grant 9	PF	25	6' 8"	210 lbs	Syracuse	$9,346,153
	"Just" Gary Harris 14	SG	25	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$17,839,286
	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic 15	C	25	7' 0"	284 lbs	--	$27,504,630
	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap 4	PF	35	6' 7"	257 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$30,350,000
	Monte "Ratio" Morris 11	PG	24	6' 2"	183 lbs	Iowa State	$1,588,231
	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray 27	PG	23	6' 4"	215 lbs	Kentucky	$4,444,746
	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee 7	PF	29	6' 11"	254 lbs	Duke	$14,041,096
	Michael "Half Man / Other Half, Also Man... Basically, All Man" Porter Jr. 1	PF	21	6' 10"	218 lbs	Missouri	$3,389,400
	Noah "Hands-A-Plenty" Vonleh 32	PF	24	6' 10"	257 lbs	Indiana	$2,000,000

Golden State Warriors Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Ky "The Fly" Bowman 12	PG	22	6' 1"	187 lbs	Boston College	--
	Alec "B-line" Burks 8	SG	28	6' 6"	214 lbs	Colorado	$1,620,564
	Willie "Or Won't He" Cauley-Stein 2	C	26	7' 0"	240 lbs	Kentucky	$2,177,483
	Marquese "Jesus" Chriss 32	PF	22	6' 9"	240 lbs	Washington	$1,620,564
	Stephen "Denzel" Curry 30	PG	31	6' 3"	185 lbs	Davidson	$40,231,758
	"Biblical" Jacob Evans 10	SG	22	6' 4"	210 lbs	Cincinnati	$1,925,880
	Draymond "Piss & Moan" Green 23	PF	29	6' 6"	230 lbs	Michigan State	$18,539,130
	Damion "David" Lee 1	SG	27	6' 5"	210 lbs	Louisville	--
	Kevon Looney "Tunes" 5	PF	23	6' 9"	222 lbs	UCLA	$4,464,226
	Eric "Pshaw" Paschall 7	PF	23	6' 6"	255 lbs	Villanova	$898,310
	"Hair" Jordan Poole 3	SG	20	6' 4"	194 lbs	Michigan	$1,964,760
	Glenn "Little Dog" Robinson III 22	SF	26	6' 6"	222 lbs	Michigan	$1,620,564
	D'Angelo "How Does It Feel" Russell 0	SG	23	6' 4"	193 lbs	Ohio State	$27,285,000
	Alen "Huh??? Who???" Smailagic 6	PF	19	6' 10"	215 lbs	--	$898,310
	Omari "The Warlock" Spellman 4	PF	22	6' 8"	245 lbs	Villanova	$1,897,800
	Klay "Klay "Coup Ferre" Thompson" Thompson 11	SG	29	6' 6"	215 lbs	Washington State	$32,742,000

Update: Millsap & Vonleh are both questionable, both with ankle injuries. As for GSW, Looney, Green & Curry are all game time decisions with hip, knee and hand ailments respectively.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 60 GSW (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +24

Jamal Murray : +16

Will Barton: +12

Monte Morris: -6

Paul Millsap: +14

Gary Harris: +8

Jerami Grant: +4

Michael Porter Jr.: -4

Mason Plumlee: +13

Torrey Craig: N/A

PJ Dozier: +0

Noah Vonleh: N/A

Keita Bates-Diop: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: -3

Bol Bol: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 60 games +1609

Jamal Murray : 51 games +933

Will Barton: 53 games +574

Monte Morris: 60 games +630

Paul Millsap: 40 games +334

Gary Harris: 52 games +420

Jerami Grant: 60 games +472

Michael Porter Jr.: 45 games +198

Mason Plumlee: 47 games +284

Torrey Craig: 45 games +10

PJ Dozier: 20 games +86

Noah Vonleh: 3 games +7

Keita Bates-Diop: 2 games +6

Vlatko Cancar: 14 games +3

Bol Bol: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +26.82

Jamal Murray: +18.29

Will Barton: +10.83

Monte Morris: +10.50

Paul Millsap: +8.35

Gary Harris: +8.08

Jerami Grant: +7.87

Michael Porter Jr.: +4.40

Mason Plumlee: +6.04

Torrey Craig: +0.24

PJ Dozier: +4.30

Noah Vonleh: +2.33

Keita Bates-Diop: +3.00

Vlatko Cancar: +0.21

Bol Bol: N/A

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 55:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Warriors counter with Lee, Wiggins, Mulder, Chriss & Anderson. Happy taco Tuesday. Hope it's supper. Super even! The John Butler trio are the officials for tonight's festivities and someone has already spilled a beer on the court within the first three seconds. GS jumps out to an early 5-0 lead as Denver is playing lackluster on the offensive end, in particular. On the bright side, Denver's front-court have drawn three fouls on defenders, as they trail by six at 9:34. Denver has yet to convert a field-goal (0-7) with 8:35 remaining. They finally convert and even that was on a goal-tending call at 7:55. They finally see one tickle the twine with just under seven minutes to go.

Jokic has all 6 points for the good guys, who trail by three at the time of the first break, 6:40 Tonight is Hispanic heritage night for Los Nuggets. Here's hoping our Latino brethren cast their vote for Bernie prior to opening the Pepsi Can. GS can't miss from distance while Denver can't buy one. Perhaps the Nuggets should have made a more concerted effort in American Samoa. Monte is first off the Pine for Denver at 5:25, trailing by 7. Grant is in at 5:15 as well for Denver. MPJ checks in at 4:17, trailing by four. Good to see him get some burn alongside Jokic. Big Honey has 8/8/2 in eight minutes of play so far, despite uncharacteristically missing many bunnies. MPJ cuts it to two on a step-back three at 2:30. Plumlee rounds out the four man bench unit at this point along with Murray. Denver ties it up on an alley-oop from the aforementioned duo, with 1:12 remaining.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +12 as they trail 25-26 after one.

Qtr2- The game is even-Steven after Plumlee hits 1-2 at the charity stripe. Golden State's defensive "strategy", as near as I can tell, is to allow guys to blow by and then hack away. Denver takes their first lead (for good I'm assuming) on a tip-in by Mason at 10:38. He has three tip-dunks and an alley-oop already as the lead is three at 9:14. Plumlee has 9/5/2 in just five minutes of court-time. It's almost as if the Warriors don't have a viable option at the 5 spot. Starters have begun filtering back in at 8:36, clinging to a two point lead. Harris is playing excellent ball lately which of course is crucial to Denver's post-season aspirations. Plumlee is first to reach double digits for Denver at 7:34, leading by three. This has been a first half Monte would like to forget, unfortunately.

The starting five is in tact for Denver at 6:36, as Morris is replaced by Millsap. The lead is four as Steve Kerr blows a gasket (and a timeout) at 4:38. Colorado has wisely selected Bernie Sanders to have the majority of it's delegates, in taco-Tuesday news. Here's what I'm rooting for: Two centers on the same team, BOTH getting a 3D tonight. Make it so Nikola/Mason. It would likely require my predicted blowout, so that Mason gets enough burn to achieve it but Joker currently sits at 8/12/4, with 3:35 remaining and a six point lead. Jamal makes two in double digits for Denver. Five players for GS have two or more fouls, illustrating my earlier assessment of their defensive "strategy". Jokic has his 2D with 10/12/4 at 1:25. He's third to reach double digits for Denver.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +17 as they lead 58-49 at the half.

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Qtr3- The Score is Millsap 4 - Warriors 0 to open the third period. Golden State is now going with the zone D in an attempt to stem the tide. Murray's shot is as cold as it was hot on Sunday, so that may not be a bad idea. The lead remains 10 at 8:45. Big Honey requires just four dimes to tie Doncic/LeBron for the NBA lead in 3D's at 13. Millsap makes four in double digits for Denver, who lead by 12 at 8:20. It's the Paul Millsap show here in the third period for Denver, who have finally seemed to realize that the Warriors can't match up with him. Denver has made just 1-8 from beyond the arc in this period. A flurry of threes by the Warriors cut it to seven at 4:32. A game effort by this young Golden State unit. Millsap/Barton make five in double digits for Denver. Malone has once again left his starters out there too long in the third, they've grown tired and he'll once again re-insert them too late in the fourth, causing them to be in at the end regardless of the score.

I really wish he'd curb this habit. I find it comical that handshakes are now outlawed in the NBA, a contact sport where blood and sweat are exchanged on each and every play. The bench unit begins to trickle in at 3:57 but Jokic/Harris remain on the court, leading by nine. Nikola is visibly exhausted and not at all playing well and he's FINALLY removed in favor of Plumlee, at 2:02. Malone is not having one of his better nights of the season. The lead is down to three on the strength of a 9-0 run by GS. Paschall is audibly displeased following two missed free throws. It's all knotted up after a bank-three by someone I've never heard of from Golden State. Poole, I hear is his name and he banks in a SECOND three, this time at the buzzer, to take the lead.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +24 as they trail 81-82 after three.

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Qtr4- The lead is now four for GS on the strength of a 20-4 run! I think this Poole fool is TRYING to bank in the threes as he finally misses one, clanking off the board and then the iron. The Warriors are not often missing however and all they are shooting is threes, as the lead is six, following B2B offensive fouls by Plumlee at 10:20. I haven't the time to peek but Monte Morris has to have a dreadful +- on the night. Denver FINALLY scores on a driving layup by Barton at 9:40. The lead is six at 7:29 and the bench squad continues to hemorrhage due to Malone's strange substitution stubbornness. Jokic/Millsap/Harris, aka Denver's best starters tonight are all three on the sideline at once and have been since the two minute mark of the third period, after being vastly over-extended, leading to the momentum change in the first place.

Jokic/Harris check in at this point as 'Sap remains seated. He's inserted at 6:20, trailing by four, for Monte Morris who's had a horrible game. GS expects to win at this point and they lead by seven at 5:44 following yet another three. Murray checks back in at this time after less than a minute's rest which makes you wonder why the same never occurs for Jokic. The lead is nine on yet another three by GS at 4:31, their 17th on the night, in 40 attempts. The lead is 13 with 3:30 to play and the Warriors are in the bonus. It's now a 16 point game with under three minutes remaining. It's all over but the custodian details. The lead is still 16 with under two minutes to go, Jokic takes a seat and this baby is non-officially ova!

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +24 as they lose 100-116

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Final Thoughts:

• Denver loses in embarrassing fashion to an inferior opponent, yet again.
  
• WASH YOUR FUCKING HANDS!
• Jokic and Murray couldn't shoot to save their lives tonight but this L is squarely Malone's responsibility. He needs to curb his 2nd half substitution pattern immediately. His post game presser will say otherwise.
  
• I'm never predicting a blowout victory again.
  
• The most active contingency on the Denver Stiffs comment section are all a lot poorer tonight.
  
• Anyone else notice that now that Morris is both the backup point and shooting guard, he can no longer shoot threes? So much of this game is mental and it is ALL about momentum.
  

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WE SUCK AGAIN!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 43 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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