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Nuggets vs Clippers II: "The Return of the Anal"

• I've finally completed my annual dalliance with music and video production which has occupied the majority of my time since X-mas, so as of 2/28/2020 the analysis portion of TPM returns. If you are interested in the music I've been publishing, it is all available for free on one playlist, at the following link: "Rope on Fire" original music and videos. I'll not be pandering for anyone to like or subscribe to anything, nor will I be imploring anyone to smash or slap any buttons (I don't even use end-card promotions or subscription buttons, in favor of videos playing out in their entirety) but if you are into experimental, progressive psychedelia, you may enjoy it. What you do with your button on your free time is between you and the Google spy-data-cache in the deserts of Nevada/Utah.
  

When last these two teams squared off in game 39 of this season the Nuggets enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from five players led by Nikola Jokic: +34. Two players for Denver were in the red for that match-up led by Torrey Craig: -3 as the Nuggets withstood a fourth quarter rally to defeat the Clippers, by a final score of 114-104.

In that game, Denver benefited from the implosion of Clippers coach Doc Rivers, who argued with official Nick Buchert. He was given two technical fouls and tossed from the game. Jamal Murray hit both free throws to restore some much-needed breathing room. The defensive standout of the game was Jerami Grant, who had two big blocks on Leonard, who finished with 30 points, while Lou Williams had 26 and Harrell added 25. For Denver, Nikola Jokic had 20 points and 15 rebounds, Murray finished with 19 points and reserve Michael Porter Jr. provided a spark by scoring 13 for the Nuggets, who made their last field goal with 6:12 remaining.

(The previous section comes with contributive information and quotes from ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, We can count on a barn-burner as these are two of the top three teams in the West, both finally at full strength. Per Altitude TV's Katy Winge:

When taking on teams above .500, Denver has the best record in the West, 2nd best in the NBA at 13-9.

Talking dynamic duos, Denver takes on one of the best tonight in Leonard and George. But Jokic and Murray are pretty good too. Jokic/Murray combine for 39.7 PPG and are a +8.1 when on the floor together. Leonard/George,48.1 PPG and are a +7.9 when on the floor together.

The Nuggets post all-star (small sample size, 3 games) are tied for last in the NBA in opponent points off of turnovers at 23 a game. The Clippers this season have been averaging about 17 points a game off of turnovers. Nuggets must take care of the ball tonight.

It will also be critical for Denver to avoid foul trouble, both on an individual level WRT Jokic ( for the love of all that is sacred, someone PLEASE explain to him how detrimental those compound-mistake, post-turnover fouls are) and on the team level as the Clippers are an ELITE free through taking/making team. They shoot a sizzling 78.9% (despite Harrell shooting just 64% on 5.3 attempts per game) on a massive 25.8 attempts per game!

Williams/Leonard/Harrell/George are all experts at getting to the foul line/causing foul problems for the opposition and LA has FOUR players who each average more attempts from the line than the most frequent free throw shooter for Denver, Jokic (with a paltry 4.2 attempts per game.) Lou Williams averages 1.4 more FTA per game than does MVP candidate Jokic. Let that marinade a bit. The aforementioned four Clippers, average 22.1 FTAPG to Denver's entire combined team average of 20.9.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• LAC gives up 109.8 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 106.8

• LAC averages 115.6 PPG offensively to Denver's 110.7
  

• This results in a net rating for LAC of +5.8 and +3.9 for Denver

• LAC is 23-6 from home while Denver is 17-11 away from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, LAC is 23-13 to Denver's 26-10 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver of course is 2nd in the Western Conference standings, 5.5 games behind the Lakers, while LAC currently resides in 3rd place in the Western Conference, 6.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

LAC: RPG 48.1 APG 23.9 SPG 7.3 BPG 5.1 FG% 46.2 FT% 78.9 3% 36.5

DEN: RPG 44.6 APG 26.5 SPG 8.1 BPG 4.7 FG% 46.9 FT% 77.9 3% 35.6

Anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, this is a battle of two teams that on paper went into the season with the top two bench units in the league. In reality however, Denver has struggled to find cohesion with their bench unit all season long while LA has only added to it with the sweetheart additions of Morris and Reggie Jackson. This matters mostly in the regular season so the Clippers have a decided edge tonight.

Prediction: Denver 115 - LAC 121

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

(leaving this up despite the expert tank-job being exhibited by the Warriors. Clearly Dallas is now a playoff team.)

Update: I've decided post All-Star break that pre-season predictions are for suckers. 

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Coach: Michael "Post" Malone

	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Will "The People's Champion" Barton 5	SF	29	6' 5"	181 lbs	Memphis	$12,776,786
	Keita "Bass-Drop" Bates-Diop 31	SF	24	6' 8"	229 lbs	Ohio State	$1,416,852
	Bol "Bilbo Baggins" Bol 10	C	20	7' 2"	220 lbs	Oregon	--
	Vlatko "Slovenian Cyborg" Cancar 31	SF	22	6' 8"	236 lbs	--	$898,310
	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig 3	SF	29	6' 7"	221 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
	PJ "Bol" Dozier 35	PG	23	6' 6"	205 lbs	South Carolina	--
	Jerami "The Co-Host" Grant 9	PF	25	6' 8"	210 lbs	Syracuse	$9,346,153
	"Just" Gary Harris 14	SG	25	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$17,839,286
	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic 15	C	24	7' 0"	284 lbs	--	$27,504,630
	Jordan "Hal" McRae 52	SG	28	6' 5"	179 lbs	Tennessee	$1,645,357
	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap 4	PF	34	6' 7"	257 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$30,350,000
	Monte "Ratio" Morris 11	PG	24	6' 2"	183 lbs	Iowa State	$1,588,231
	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray 27	PG	22	6' 4"	215 lbs	Kentucky	$4,444,746
	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee 7	PF	29	6' 11"	254 lbs	Duke	$14,041,096
	Michael "Half Man / Other Half, Also Man... Basically, All Man" Porter Jr. 1	PF	21	6' 10"	218 lbs	Missouri	$3,389,400
	Noah "Hands-A-Plenty" Vonleh 1	PF	24	6' 10"	257 lbs	Indiana	$2,000,000

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Patrick "The No-Love-Glove" Beverley 21	PG	31	6' 1"	180 lbs	Arkansas	$12,345,680
	Amir "Grande" Coffey 7	SG	22	6' 7"	210 lbs	Minnesota	--
	Paul "PG13" George 13	SF	29	6' 8"	220 lbs	Fresno State	$30,560,700
	JaMychal "Mean Ja" Green 4	PF	29	6' 8"	227 lbs	Alabama	$4,767,000
	Maurice "Mo" Harkless 8	SF	26	6' 7"	220 lbs	St. John's	$11,011,234
	Montrezl "Tazmanianl Devil...l" Harrell 5	PF	25	6' 7"	240 lbs	Louisville	$6,000,000
	Mfiondu "Kombucha" Kabengele 25	PF	22	6' 9"	250 lbs	Florida State	$1,977,000
	Kawhi "Almost As Good As Voshon" Leonard 2	SF	28	6' 7"	225 lbs	San Diego State	$32,742,000
	Terrance "Phillip" Mann 14	SG	23	6' 5"	215 lbs	Florida State	$1,000,000
	"Randy" Rodney McGruder 19	SG	28	6' 4"	205 lbs	Kansas State	$4,807,693
	Johnathan "Ozo" Motley 15	PF	24	6' 8"	230 lbs	Baylor	--
	Patrick "Pat-Pat" Patterson 54	PF	30	6' 8"	235 lbs	Kentucky	$1,620,564
	Jerome "Lane" Robinson 1	SG	22	6' 4"	190 lbs	Boston College	$3,567,720
	"Tom" Landry Shamet 20	SG	22	6' 4"	190 lbs	Wichita State	$1,995,120
	Derrick "Bill" Walton Jr. 10	PG	24	6' 0"	185 lbs	Michigan	$1,445,697
	Lou "The Professional Free Throw Shooter" Williams 23	SG	33	6' 1"	175 lbs	--	$8,000,000
	Ivica "Vivika Fox" Zubac 40	C	22	7' 0"	240 lbs	--	$6,481,482

Update: Noah Vonleh is a game time decision with an ankle injury while Bol Bol is on Philadelphia red-shirt. As for the Clippers, Zilch.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 59 LAC (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +16

Jamal Murray : +5

Will Barton: +12

Monte Morris: +7

Paul Millsap: -3

Gary Harris: -15

Jerami Grant: +13

Michael Porter Jr.: +3

Mason Plumlee: -2

Torrey Craig: -8

Jordan McRae: -5

PJ Dozier: -2

Noah Vonleh: N/A

Keita Bates-Diop: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: -5

Bol Bol: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 58 games +1548

Jamal Murray : 49 games +890

Will Barton: 51 games +550

Monte Morris: 58 games +620

Paul Millsap: 39 games +320

Gary Harris: 50 games +389

Jerami Grant: 58 games +448

Michael Porter Jr.: 43 games +185

Mason Plumlee: 46 games +259

Torrey Craig: 44 games -3

Jordan McRae: 4 games +8

PJ Dozier: 18 games +86

Noah Vonleh: 3 games +7

Keita Bates-Diop: 2 games +6

Vlatko Cancar: 12 games +3

Bol Bol: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +26.69

Jamal Murray: +18.16

Will Barton: +10.78

Monte Morris: +10.69

Paul Millsap: +8.21

Gary Harris: +7.78

Jerami Grant: +7.72

Michael Porter Jr.: +4.30

Mason Plumlee: +5.63

Torrey Craig: -0.07

Jordan McRae: +2.00

PJ Dozier: +4.78

Noah Vonleh: +2.33

Keita Bates-Diop: +3.00

Vlatko Cancar: +0.25

Bol Bol: N/A

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 55:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Clippers counter with Beverly, George, Leonard, Morris & Zubac. Ivica gets the scoring underway amidst the thick pseudo-plumes of fugazi smoke. If that's not Los Angeles, what is? LA is 4-4 in the early going as they lead by seven at 9:33. Denver is once again being careless with the ball and the Clippers are capitalizing on all turnovers and the lead is 10 at the time of the first break, 7:54. Denver is going to have to hope to inexplicably win the battle of the benches tonight to have any prayer of winning, it would seem. LA is FINALLY starting to miss their outside J's and the lead is nine at 5:36.

Jokic lumbers coast-to-coast, cutting it to seven at the time of the second break, 5:14. He's first to reach double digits for Denver. Monte is first off the pine for the good guys, following the break. MPJ and Grant are soon to follow at 4:10. Plumlee rounds out the bench-squad at 3:22, with only Murray remaining in of the starters. The lead for LA is seven after a three by Monte at 2:28. Plumlee is struggling mightily to contain Harrell, defensively. Barton took a shot earlier and he simply doesn't look right out there, as LA quickly pushes the lead to 13, following listless defense and an apathetic pass by Will. The Nuggets have their work cut out for them tonight.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +8 as they trail 27-37 after one.

Qtr2- Craig replaces MPJ to open the second period. Denver scores the first four, cutting it to six in the early going. Reggie Jackson drills two straight from downtown and the lead is back up to 11 at 9:54. Harrell is feasting inside and the lead is 13 at 7:25. Three point shooting is keeping the Nuggets within reach as they trail by 10 at the time of the first break, 6.55 following a trifecta from Grant. He's second to reach double digits for Denver. Barton seems to have cleared the cobwebs. The starters begin filtering back in at this time. The Nuggets are going big with Jokic/Millsap/Grant all in the game, along with Harris/Murray. Gary finally contributes offensively, as he cuts it to nine on a tasty drive at 4:20. Denver really needs to focus on attacking the rim against this Clippers team, devoid of rim protection.

Jokic cuts it to seven on a layup in which he was mauled (with no call of course) as LA calls a timeout at 2:27. Grant has been very valuable tonight but he has two fouls so Malone would be wise to rest him at this point. Maybe give MPJ and his length some burn with the starters for a change? No Clippers have more than one foul despite some of the handsiest defense we've witnessed all season. LA is doing a nice job of forcing the ball into Harris' hands when Denver has the ball. This Clippers team is as elite defensively as we've seen since perhaps the Pistons team that won it all in the early portion of this century. Jamal is finally getting loose but doing so on some highly difficult jumpers. Morris (LA variety) hits one from 18 as the half comes to a close

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +15 as they trail 56-66 at the half.

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Qtr3- The defensive intensity has amplified for Denver as the third period gets underway in earnest but they are struggling mightily on the other end. Barton cuts it to seven on a three at 9:20. "Zubac has the championship mentality." Really Mark Jackson? THAT'S your take? Offensive ineptitude continues for Denver as LA again heats up from distance and the Clippers suddenly lead by 14 at the time of the first break, 8:17. Denver just needs to make this a game heading into deep water where the Nuggets are battle tested over the course of the past two seasons, unlike this Clippers team. Denver can't afford to let this run continue. Harris/Millsap have combined for TWO points!

Kawhi is taking over and the lead is 18 at 6:40. You've simply got to defend him with a taller player than 6'3 Gary Harris. Grant checks in for the completely ineffective Barton. He's followed by Monte in short order. Someone has to get unreasonably hot for Denver and LA needs to let up on the gas or it's over, as the Clippers lead by 18 at 4:11. Murray FINALLY makes three in double digits for Denver. The Clippers have their biggest lead of 20 points, after a three by Lou at 2:55. Jokic/Murray/Harris check out at 2:17, trailing by 17. Craig, not MPJ, checks in with Denver trailing by 19 at 1:45 which makes no sense to anyone by Malone. The coach's defensive tunnel vision is a very real problem at times. Denver hasn't given up but Denver has kinda given up as the third period mercifully comes to a close.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +16 as they trail 79-98 after three.

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Qtr4- Barton makes four in double digits for Denver. The Nuggets are playing some seriously sloppy, disinterested basketball right now. There are two differences between the two teams as I see it. One: Talent of the top five-six players and Two: Desire. It's only one game so I'll try to keep that in mind but Denver doesn't look like a contender on this night. LA leads by 22 at the time of the first break, 9:38 and there is ZERO excuse to have Craig out there instead of MPJ at this point. I'm Sure Gordon is having an aneurysm right about now. Craig, not MPJ, remains in. The lead is 25 and Malone has given up, so I suppose I will as well. Data only from here on out tonight, at the 8:10 mark.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +16 as they lose 103-132

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Final Thoughts:

• If these teams square off in the playoffs, Grant MUST start in the place of either Harris or Barton.
  
• Hollywood nightlife game?
  

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We Suck Again!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 43 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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