FanPost

TPM™ 2018-'19 Game 79 vs Portland

42115510_262482381275727_3881972251121690938_n.0.jpgThe band is FINALLY back together!

Nuggets vs Blazers III: Get well soon Juka!

When last these two teams squared off in game __ of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from __ players led by __. __ players for Denver were in the red for that match-up led by __ as the Nuggets

In that game,

As for this game,

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Here are some numbers you can use:

__ gives up 107.5 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 107.0

__ averages 112.8 PPG offensively to Denver's 112.0

This results in a net rating for __ of +5.3 and +5.0 for Denver

__ is 26-10 at home while Denver is 16-16 away from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

In terms of conference record, __ is 29-13 to Denver's 30-14 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition

Denver of course is 1st in the Western Conference standings, .5 games ahead of the Warriors while __ currently resides in 5th place in the Eastern Conference, 9 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)
__ : RPG 44.7 APG 26.5 SPG 8.8 BPG 5.4 FG% 46.6 FT% 80.7 3% 36.5

DEN: RPG 46.6 APG 27.8 SPG 7.8 BPG 4.5 FG% 46.9 FT% 75.5 3% 35.6

The numbers on whole are remarkably similar but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone.

To that end, Denver has won 13 of their last 20 & 6 of their last 10 games, while __ has been victorious in 12 of their last 20 & 6 of their last 10.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example,

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For this young Nuggets group, (fourth youngest in the NBA; they were the youngest at the start of the season but tank-moves made by CHI/NY/PHO have rendered them younger, since) individual consistency is simply not a thing so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night. The Nuggets have missed more man-games to injury by a wide margin, than any team in the league. This includes three starters having played fewer games than they have missed. As they are worked back into the rotation, neither can team consistency be expected.

Having said that, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry; a natural scorer/creator and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without Lyles and MPJ.

When Jokic gets a 3D at home, over the course of his career, the Nuggets are undefeated and only once in his 28 career 3D's have the Nuggets lost. In short, these are not hollow, stat seeking ventures but Jokic playing within the offense. He's come up short of a 3D no less than a dozen times this season alone, by one or two P/R/A due to the Nuggets leading big and his sitting out fourth quarters. In such occasions he can be found laughing and cheering his teammates on from the pine.

The man cares about one thing only and that is winning. Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

The Nuggets' rotation has tightened up a bit in advance of the playoffs, so it will likely be a nine man unit, which leaves Lyles/Juancho/IT out, situational needs, foul trouble and recycling time excepted.

Food for thought: With Harris/Barton/Millsap returning from injury and again starting, this is what Denver's rotation consists of:

PG Murray/Morris

SG Harris/Beasley/Barton

SF Barton/Harris/Beasley/Craig

PF Millsap/Plumlee/Craig

C Jokic/Plumlee/Millsap

For this to work Plumlee has got to curtail his fouling, Jokic has GOT to stop taking "Jokic only" fouls to prove a point to officials and defensive communication has got to be at a premium. Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."
I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

Prediction: Denver (lap ) -

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Coach: Coach: Michael "Post" Malone

NO Name POS Age HT WT College Salary
5 Will "The People's Champion" Barton SG 27 6' 6" 190 lbs Memphis $11,830,358
25 "Mutant" Malik Beasley SG 22 6' 5" 195 lbs Florida State $1,773,840
3 Torrey "FUCKING" Craig SF 27 6' 7" 215 lbs USC Upstate $2,000,000
2 Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin PG 23 6' 2" 180 lbs Florida Gulf Coast $630,032
14 "Just" Gary Harris SG 24 6' 4" 210 lbs Michigan State $16,517,857
41 Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez PF 23 6' 9" 230 lbs Espana
$2,166,360
15 Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker) C 23 7' 0" 250 lbs Gotham
$24,605,181
20 Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon PF 22 6' 10" 225 lbs Syracuse $1,874,640
7 Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles PF 23 6' 10" 234 lbs Kentucky $3,364,249
4 Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap PF 33 6' 8" 246 lbs Louisiana Tech $29,230,769
11 Monte "Ratio" Morris PG 23 6' 3" 175 lbs Iowa State $1,349,383
27 Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray PG 21 6' 4" 207 lbs Kentucky $3,499,800
24 Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee PF 28 6' 11" 235 lbs Duke $12,917,808
1 Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr. PF 20 6' 10" 210 lbs Missouri $2,894,160
0 Isaiah "Ice" Thomas PG 29 5' 9" 185 lbs Washington $1,512,601
8 Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt PF 19 6' 9" 214 lbs Kentucky $838,464
45 Thomas "Irvine" Welsh C 22 7' 0" 255 lbs UCLA G-Money








Update: MPJ is still waiting to make his Denver Nuggets/pro debut as he rehabs from multiple back surgeries. Wow! That was short! As for __

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 79 PDX (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +22

Jamal Murray: +20

Gary Harris: +4

Paul Millsap: +17

Will Barton: +2

Monte Morris: +4

Mason Plumlee: -7

Malik Beasley: +12

Torrey Craig: +7

Trey Lyles: N/A

Juancho: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Thomas Welsh: N/A

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Brandon Goodwin: N/A

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 78 games +1783

Jamal Murray: 72 games +1250

Gary Harris: 54 games +606

Paul Millsap: 68 games +662

Will Barton: 41 games +283

Monte Morris: 79 games +904

Mason Plumlee: 79 games +601

Malik Beasley: 78 games +588

Torrey Craig: 73 games +57

Trey Lyles: 63 games +321

Juancho: 68 games -15

Jared Vanderbilt: 15 games +16

Thomas Welsh: 11 games +22

Isaiah Thomas: 11 games 89

Tyler Lydon: 24 games -2

Brandon Goodwin: 16 games +28

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Nick Young: 3 games -2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +22.86

Jamal Murray: +17.36

Gary Harris: +11.22

Paul Millsap: +9.74

Will Barton: +6.90

Monte Morris: +11.44

Mason Plumlee: +7.61

Malik Beasley: +7.54

Torrey Craig: +0.78

Trey Lyles: +5.10

Juancho: -0.22

Jared Vanderbilt: +1.07

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

Isaiah Thomas: +8.09

Tyler Lydon: -0.08

Brandon Goodwin: +1.75

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Nick Young: -0.67

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

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TPM Per-Minute Splits Through Game 66:

TPM-2018-2019-Game-66.0.png TPM-2018-2019-Team-Results-Game-66.0.png

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis: Apologies but due to unforeseen circumstances and a family emergency there will be no analysis tonight. Data only.

Qtr1- For only the 20th time this season, the Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The __ counter with

Denver is paced in TPM by __ as they__ after one.

Nikola Jokic: + Jamal Murray: + Gary Harris: + Paul Millsap: + Will Barton: + Monte Morris: N/A Mason Plumlee: N/A Malik Beasley: N/A Torrey Craig: N/A Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A Isaiah Thomas: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A Brandon Goodwin: N/A

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Qtr2- The

Denver is paced in TPM by __ as they__ at the half.

Nikola Jokic: + Jamal Murray: + Gary Harris: + Paul Millsap: + Will Barton: + Monte Morris: N/A Mason Plumlee: N/A Malik Beasley: N/A Torrey Craig: N/A Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A Isaiah Thomas: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A Brandon Goodwin: N/A

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Qtr3- The

Denver is paced in TPM by __ as they__ after three.

Nikola Jokic: + Jamal Murray: + Gary Harris: + Paul Millsap: + Will Barton: + Monte Morris: N/A Mason Plumlee: N/A Malik Beasley: N/A Torrey Craig: N/A Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A Isaiah Thomas: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A Brandon Goodwin: N/A

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Qtr4- The

Denver is paced in TPM by __ as they __win 119-110

Nikola Jokic: + Jamal Murray: + Gary Harris: + Paul Millsap: + Will Barton: + Monte Morris: N/A Mason Plumlee: N/A Malik Beasley: N/A Torrey Craig: N/A Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A Isaiah Thomas: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A Brandon Goodwin: N/A

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The Nuggets Win!

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We Suck Again!

Final Thoughts:

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.



Write respectfully of your SB Nation community and yourself.