He's going to want this one... badly.

And the Thunder will no doubt have revenge on their minds once again

The band is FINALLY back together!

Nuggets vs Thunder IV: Two contenders, not exactly peaking at the right time.

When last these two teams squared off in game 60 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players led by Will Barton: +29. Only Torrey Craig: -2 was in the red for that match-up as the Nuggets won a very important game by a final score of 121-112.

In that contest, Jokic finished with an MVP line of 36-9-10 and Westbrook struggled to maintain a handle on the ball down the stretch, fumbling away several key possessions in crunch time.

As for this encounter, while their recent record indicates otherwise, Denver is as a unit floundering; struggling to find any semblance of consistency, they haven't strung together four quarters of high-effort and disciplined basketball in quite some time and are clearly fatigued both physically and mentally. This should be markedly exacerbated by playing in the second end of a road B2b, in one of the toughest arenas of which to wrestle a road victory away, after playing a horrendously unfocused game (particularly on defense) only last night in Houston.

OKC has been falling precipitously in the standings as they have perhaps the only late season schedule more brutal than that of the Nuggets amongst teams vying for playoff contention. That is in and of itself however, misleading given how few games separate #'s 5-8 in the Western Conference standings and as always they still have the uber-explosive Westbrook, MVP candidate PG13 and one of the best and most likable big men (means nothing, just warrants inclusion) in the league in Steven Adams so to say the Thunder should be favored despite what the standings may otherwise indicate, would be a gross understatement.

Denver does have the 3-0 edge thus-far in this, the final regular season encounter between the two teams and for whatever reason they seem to match-up well with OKC but the odds are almost insurmountably stacked against stealing a road W otherwise. In short, this is clearly a schedule loss for the Nuggets but lets take a look at the non-contextualized numbers as a formality anyway:

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Here are some numbers you can use:

OKC gives up 110.9 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 106.9

OKC averages 114.2 PPG offensively to Denver's 111.1

This results in a net rating for OKC of +3.3 and +4.2 for Denver

OKC is 24-12 at home while Denver is 19-18 away from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

In terms of conference record, OKC is 25-22 to Denver's 30-15 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition

Denver of course is 2nd in the Western Conference standings, 1 game behind of the Warriors while OKC currently resides in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, 7.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)
OKC: RPG 47.9 APG 23.1 SPG 9.5 BPG 5.3 FG% 45.3 FT% 71.3 3% 34.7

DEN: RPG 46.8 APG 27.6 SPG 7.6 BPG 4.5 FG% 46.7 FT% 75.7 3% 35.6

The numbers on whole favor Denver but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone.

To that end, Denver has won 13 of their last 20 & 7 of their last 10 games, while OKC has been victorious in 8 of their last 20 & 4 of their last 10.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, a rough & tumble Steven Adams is precisely the type of center that you don't want to see the palpably exhausted Jokic run up against in a schedule-loss and in a time when Malone has expressed that he plans to give certain key components some time off. For this reason, I expect Big Honey and likely Harris/Millsap, all three of whom were absolutely mauled by the Rockets last night (though the foul discrepancy would indicate another story entirely) to most likely sit this one out as there is little to no chance Denver can pull out a road win tonight. Murray and Barton could also badly use a breather to combat mental fatigue more than anything and Denver is amongst the very few NBA teams who could field a semi competitive group without any of their starting five. I advocate sitting them all rather than staggering the resting games; something that only makes it more likely that more L's would be in the Nuggets future. This one could get ugly fast if I'm correct that any if not all starters don't play for the Nuggets.

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For this young Nuggets group, (fourth youngest in the NBA; they were the youngest at the start of the season but tank-moves made by CHI/NY/PHO have rendered them younger, since) individual consistency is simply not a thing so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night. The Nuggets have missed more man-games to injury by a wide margin, than any team in the league. This includes three starters having played fewer games than they have missed. As they are worked back into the rotation, neither can team consistency be expected.

Having said that, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry; a natural scorer/creator and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without MPJ.

When Jokic gets a 3D at home, over the course of his career, the Nuggets are undefeated and only once in his 28 career 3D's have the Nuggets lost. In short, these are not hollow, stat seeking ventures but Jokic playing within the offense. He's come up short of a 3D no less than a dozen times this season alone, by one or two P/R/A due to the Nuggets leading big and his sitting out fourth quarters. In such occasions he can be found laughing and cheering his teammates on from the pine.

The man cares about one thing only and that is winning. Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

The Nuggets' rotation has tightened up a bit in advance of the playoffs, so it will likely be a nine man unit, which leaves Lyles/Juancho/IT out, situational needs, foul trouble and recycling time excepted.

Food for thought: With Harris/Barton/Millsap returning from injury and again starting, this is what Denver's rotation consists of:

PG Murray/Morris

SG Harris/Beasley/Barton

SF Barton/Harris/Beasley/Craig

PF Millsap/Plumlee/Craig

C Jokic/Plumlee/Millsap

For this to work Plumlee has got to curtail his fouling, Jokic has GOT to stop taking "Jokic only" fouls to prove a point to officials and defensive communication has got to be at a premium. Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."
I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

Prediction: Denver 97 (lap ) - OKC 107.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Oklahoma City Thunder Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
8	Alex "Albatross" Abrines	SG	25	6' 6"	200 lbs	Parts Unknown (RIP Tony Bourdain)	$5,455,236
12	Steven "I Eat Hobbits For 2nd Breakfast" Adams	C	25	7' 0"	265 lbs	Pittsburgh	$24,157,303
30	Deonte "LaVar" Burton	G	24	6' 5"	245 lbs	Iowa State	G-Money
34	"X-Rated" Tyler Davis	C	21	6' 10"	266 lbs	Texas A&M	G-Money
6	"I Dunno But Maybe" Hamidou Diallo	SG	20	6' 5"	198 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
2	Raymond "Insert Fat Joke" Felton	PG	34	6' 1"	205 lbs	North Carolina	$1,512,601
23	Terrance "Thunder From Down Under " Ferguson	SG	20	6' 7"	190 lbs	Australia	$2,118,840
13	Paul "PG13" George	SF	28	6' 9"	220 lbs	Fresno State	$30,560,700
9	Jerami "(Sp?) #5" Grant	SF	24	6' 9"	220 lbs	Syracuse	$8,653,847
7	Timothe "Either A Wine OR A Strip-Joint" Luwawu-Cabarrot	SG	23	6' 6"	210 lbs	Francais (probably)	$1,544,951
11	Abdel "Ralph" Nader	SF	25	6' 6"	225 lbs	Iowa State	$1,378,242
3	Nerlens "Never-Nude" Noel	PF	24	6' 11"	220 lbs	Kentucky	$1,757,429
54	Patrick "Pat-Pat" Patterson	PF	29	6' 9"	230 lbs	Kentucky	$5,451,600
21	Andre "Too Soon" Roberson	SG	26	6' 7"	210 lbs	Colorado	$10,000,000
17	"NC-17" Dennis Schroder	PG	25	6' 1"	172 lbs	Deutchland	$15,500,000
0	Russell "Rocky Horror" Westbrook	PG	30	6' 3"	200 lbs	UCLA	$35,654,150

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	27	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$11,830,358
25	"Mutant" Malik Beasley	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$1,773,840
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	27	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
2	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	23	6' 2"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	24	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$16,517,857
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	23	6' 9"	230 lbs	Espana	$2,166,360
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	23	7' 0"	250 lbs	Gotham	$24,605,181
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	22	6' 10"	225 lbs	Syracuse	$1,874,640
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	23	6' 10"	234 lbs	Kentucky	$3,364,249
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	33	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$29,230,769
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	23	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,349,383
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	21	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$3,499,800
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	28	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$12,917,808
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	20	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$2,894,160
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	29	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,512,601
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	19	6' 9"	214 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	22	7' 0"	255 lbs	UCLA	G-Money

Update: MPJ is still waiting to make his Denver Nuggets/pro debut as he rehabs from multiple back surgeries. Wow! That was short! As for OKC, Colorado's own Andre Roberson is still out with a knee injury.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 75 OKC (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +32

Jamal Murray: +37

Gary Harris: +7

Paul Millsap: +10

Will Barton: +2

Monte Morris: +13

Mason Plumlee: +13

Malik Beasley: +6

Torrey Craig: +5

Trey Lyles: +0

Juancho: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Thomas Welsh: N/A

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Brandon Goodwin: N/A

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 74 games +1687

Jamal Murray: 68 games +1175

Gary Harris: 50 games +580

Paul Millsap: 64 games +619

Will Barton: 37 games +268

Monte Morris: 75 games +865

Mason Plumlee: 75 games +608

Malik Beasley: 74 games +565

Torrey Craig: 69 games +43

Trey Lyles: 60 games +303

Juancho: 66 games -16

Jared Vanderbilt: 13 games +9

Thomas Welsh: 11 games +22

Isaiah Thomas: 10 games 73

Tyler Lydon: 24 games -2

Brandon Goodwin: 16 games +28

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Nick Young: 3 games -2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +22.80

Jamal Murray: +17.28

Gary Harris: +11.60

Paul Millsap: +9.67

Will Barton: +7.24

Monte Morris: +11.53

Mason Plumlee: +8.11

Malik Beasley: +7.64

Torrey Craig: +0.62

Trey Lyles: +5.05

Juancho: -0.24

Jared Vanderbilt: +0.69

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

Isaiah Thomas: +7.30

Tyler Lydon: -0.08

Brandon Goodwin: +1.75

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Nick Young: -0.67

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 66:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis: Apologies but due to unforeseen circumstances and a family emergency there will be no analysis tonight. Data only. Analysis will return for the next game

Qtr1- For only the 16th time this season, the Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Thunder counter with Russ, Ferguson, George, Grant & Adams.

Denver is paced in TPM by __ as they__ after one.

Nikola Jokic: + Jamal Murray: + Gary Harris: + Paul Millsap: + Will Barton: + Monte Morris: N/A Mason Plumlee: N/A Malik Beasley: N/A Torrey Craig: N/A Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A Isaiah Thomas: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A Brandon Goodwin: N/A

Qtr2- The

Denver is paced in TPM by __ as they__ at the half.

Nikola Jokic: + Jamal Murray: + Gary Harris: + Paul Millsap: + Will Barton: + Monte Morris: N/A Mason Plumlee: N/A Malik Beasley: N/A Torrey Craig: N/A Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A Isaiah Thomas: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A Brandon Goodwin: N/A

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Qtr3- The

Denver is paced in TPM by __ as they__ after three.

Nikola Jokic: + Jamal Murray: + Gary Harris: + Paul Millsap: + Will Barton: + Monte Morris: N/A Mason Plumlee: N/A Malik Beasley: N/A Torrey Craig: N/A Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A Isaiah Thomas: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A Brandon Goodwin: N/A

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Qtr4- The

Denver is paced in TPM by __ as they __ win 115-105

Nikola Jokic: + Jamal Murray: + Gary Harris: + Paul Millsap: + Will Barton: + Monte Morris: N/A Mason Plumlee: N/A Malik Beasley: N/A Torrey Craig: N/A Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A Isaiah Thomas: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A Brandon Goodwin: N/A

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The Nuggets Win!

Final Thoughts:

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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