Future Laker Anthony Davis will sit this one out for the third of four meetings with Denver thus-far.

Nikola, I beg of you; no "only Jokic" fouls or whining from here on out. The officials already hate you. You can only change this one way and it's not your preferred approach.

The band is FINALLY back together! I expect Harris to start tonight and in doing so, the Nuggets opening night starting five will be in tact for the first time since game two of the season. The only players who are currently inactive due to injury are Trey Lyles and MPJ. Denver is healthier than they have been at any point in this season, just in time for a brutal second half schedule.

Nuggets vs NOLA IV: The final chapter

When last these two teams squared off in game 50 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from three players led by Monte Morris/Nikola Jokic: +30. Two Denver players were in the red for that match-up led by Trey Lyles: -2 as the Nuggets won 105-99 in Louisiana.

In that game, Nikola finished with a 3D line of 20-13-10 & Monte with 20-7-7.

As for this game, Denver leads the series 2-1 and there are zero playoff implications in terms of a head to head match-up between the two or tiebreakers but Denver needs to concern themselves with conference record as a tiebreaker and more importantly positioning, as the schedule becomes brutal VERY soon. This IS a must win game. Adding to this motivation should be the fact that GS plays in Philly tonight, they are on a two game losing streak and in the midst of a long Eastern swing so there should be no reason for lackadaisical play such as that exhibited in the second period vs Utah on Thursday night. In short, there is a high probability that Denver is back on top of the Western Conference standings by the end of the night, by virtue of their superior conference record over the Warriors, as their season series is currently tied 1-1.
Here are some numbers you can use:

NOLA gives up 115.1 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 107.0

The Pels average 115.9 PPG offensively to the Nuggets 112.2

This results in a net rating for NOLA of +0.8 and +5.2 for Denver

NOLA is just 10-24 on the road while Denver is an NBA best 27-5 in the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

In terms of conference record, the Pels are 18-22 to the Nuggets 27-11 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition

Denver of course is 2nd in the Western Conference standings, just .5 games behind the Warriors while NOLA currently resides in 13th place in the Western Conference, 16 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)
NOP: RPG 47.2 APG 27.0 SPG 7.4 BPG 5.6 FG% 47.8 FT% 76.7 3% 34.6

DEN: RPG 46.9 APG 27.7 SPG 7.8 BPG 4.5 FG% 47.0 FT% 75.2 3% 35.5

The numbers on whole are remarkably similar and if anything favor New Orleans but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone.

To that end, the Nuggets have won 14 of their last 20 & 6 of their last 10 games, while the Pels have been victorious in 8 of their last 20 & 5 of their last 10.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, don't laugh but IMHO Okafor and Jokic have very similar games in one specific area; the post. Thy have similar footwork, moves and touch around the basket. The comparisons however end there. Randle on the other hand is more than Jokic can handle defensively so it's a blessing to have Millsap in action this go-'round. Okafor can't quite match Jokic blow for blow offensively due to Big Honey's superior play making and ability to play in places other than the block and while still not a great defender, Jokic is vastly better than Jah in that department.

For this young Nuggets group, (fourth youngest in the NBA; they were the youngest at the start of the season but tank-moves made by CHI/NY/PHO have rendered them younger, since) individual consistency is simply not a thing so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night.

Having said that, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry; a natural scorer/creator and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without Lyles and MPJ.

When Jokic gets a 3D at home, over the course of his career, the Nuggets are undefeated and only once in his 28 career 3D's have the Nuggets lost. In short, these are not hollow, stat seeking ventures but Jokic playing within the offense. He's come up short of a 3D no less than a dozen times this season alone, by one or two P/R/A due to the Nuggets leading big and his sitting out fourth quarters. In such occasions he can be found laughing and cheering his teammates on from the pine.

The man cares about one thing only and that is winning. Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly.

I do expect the Nuggets' rotation to tighten up a bit, so it will likely be a nine man unit, which leaves Craig/Juancho and likely Lyles upon return, out.

Food for thought: Once Harris is starting, this is what Denver's rotation will consist of:

PG Murray/Morris/IT

SG Harris/IT/Beasley

SF Barton/Harris/Beasley

PF Millsap/Plumlee

C Jokic/Plumlee

A combination unique amongst the NBA, of being very small in positions 1-3 while exceptionally large at the 4-5. For this to work Plumlee has got to curtail his fouling, Jokic has GOT to stop taking "Jokic only" fouls to prove a point to officials and defensive communication has got to be at a premium. Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?"

Prediction: Denver (lap ) 125 - Nola 107

______________________________________________________________________________________________

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

New Orleans Pelicans Roster

Coach: Alvin "Not As Pretty As Barbara Palvin" Gentry

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Trevon "Had An Open Bunny But He" Bluiett	SG	23	6' 6"	198 lbs	Xavier	G-Money
2	"Threein" Ian Clark	SG	27	6' 3"	175 lbs	Belmont	$1,512,601
23	Anthony 'The Brow" Davis	PF	25	6' 10"	253 lbs	Kentucky	$25,434,263
13	Cheick "Please" Diallo	PF	22	6' 9"	220 lbs	Kansas	$1,544,951
12	Tim "Clyde" Frazier	PG	27	6' 1"	170 lbs	Penn State	$1,512,601
44	Solomon "Grundy" Hill	SF	27	6' 7"	225 lbs	Arizona	$12,252,928
11	Jrue "Sp? #2" Holiday	PG	28	6' 4"	205 lbs	UCLA	$25,976,111
15	Frank "Crank" Jackson	PG	20	6' 3"	205 lbs	Duke	$1,378,242
33	Wesley "The Great One" Johnson	SF	31	6' 7"	215 lbs	Syracuse	$6,134,520
21	"Vicarious" Darius Miller	SF	28	6' 8"	225 lbs	Kentucky	$2,205,000
3	"The Other" Nikola Mirotic	PF	27	6' 10"	250 lbs	The Other Sř̩bija	$12,500,000
55	E'Twaun "Less Is" Moore	G	29	6' 4"	191 lbs	Purdue	$8,808,685
8	Jahlil "The Smoothie King Center" Okafor	C	22	6' 11"	275 lbs	Duke	$1,567,707
4	Elfrid "Kid Gloves" Payton	PG	24	6' 4"	185 lbs	Louisiana-Lafayette	$3,000,000
30	Julius "Man-Handle" Randle	PF	23	6' 9"	250 lbs	Kentucky	$8,641,000

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	27	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$11,830,358
25	"Mutant" Malik Beasley	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$1,773,840
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	27	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
2	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	23	6' 2"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	24	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$16,517,857
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	23	6' 9"	230 lbs	Espana	$2,166,360
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	23	7' 0"	250 lbs	Gotham	$24,605,181
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	22	6' 10"	225 lbs	Syracuse	$1,874,640
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	23	6' 10"	234 lbs	Kentucky	$3,364,249
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	33	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$29,230,769
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	23	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,349,383
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	21	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$3,499,800
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	28	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$12,917,808
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	20	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$2,894,160
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	29	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,512,601
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	19	6' 9"	214 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	22	7' 0"	255 lbs	UCLA	G-Money

Update: MPJ is still waiting to make his Denver Nuggets/pro debut as he rehabs from multiple back surgeries. Lyles is out with a Hammy. Wow! That was short! As for the Pels, AD is out with nothing while Trevon Bluiett. (in this case his thumb.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades have been made and the above roster for the opposing team is inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

Re-Re-up: Wrong again Rasmussen. Harris remains benched :/

Re-Re-Re-up: Malone can't seem to make up his mind today and Harris is indeed getting the starting nod as of 6:36 MST.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Data:

TPM™ Game 62 NOLA (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +22

Jamal Murray: +21

Gary Harris: +4

Monte Morris: +8

Paul Millsap: +4

Isaiah Thomas: +9

Will Barton: +9

Mason Plumlee: +2

Malik Beasley: +3

Juancho: -11

Torrey Craig: +0

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Thomas Welsh: N/A

Tyler Lydon: G-league

Brandon Goodwin: G-league

Trey Lyles: Injured

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 61 games +1415

Jamal Murray: 56 games +951

Gary Harris: 37 games +486

Monte Morris: 62 games +737

Paul Millsap: 50 games +469

Isaiah Thomas: 6 games +53

Will Barton: 23 games +198

Mason Plumlee: 62 games +523

Malik Beasley: 62 games +479

Juancho: 58 games -5

Torrey Craig: 58 games -14

Jared Vanderbilt: 6 games +12

Thomas Welsh: 9 games +18

Tyler Lydon: 24 games -2

Brandon Goodwin: 16 games +28

Trey Lyles: 55 games +303

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Nick Young: 3 games -2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +23.20

Jamal Murray: +16.98

Gary Harris: +13.14

Monte Morris: +11.89

Paul Millsap: +9.38

Isaiah Thomas:+8.83

Will Barton: +8.61

Mason Plumlee: +8.44

Malik Beasley: +7.73

Juancho: -0.09

Torrey Craig: -0.24

Jared Vanderbilt: +2.00

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

Tyler Lydon: -0.08

Brandon Goodwin: +1.75

Trey Lyles: +5.70

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Nick Young: -0.67

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

__________________________________________________________________________________________

TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 60:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- For only the third time this season, the Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Pels counter with Payton, Holiday, Williams, Randle & Okafor.

Data only as per usual on Saturdays; my busiest day/night. I'm taking this one in via the best in the biz, Jason Kozmiski tonight for the first time which I'm excited about.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +16 as they lead after one.

Nikola Jokic: +10 Jamal Murray: +16 Gary Harris: +5 Monte Morris: +2 Paul Millsap: +7 Isaiah Thomas: +0 Will Barton: +6 Mason Plumlee: +2 Malik Beasley: +1 Juancho: -1 Torrey Craig: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A

Qtr2- The

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +23 as they lead 71-67 at the half

Nikola Jokic: +11 Jamal Murray: +23 Gary Harris: +8 Monte Morris: +2 Paul Millsap: +8 Isaiah Thomas: +8 Will Barton: +4 Mason Plumlee: +0 Malik Beasley: +5 Juancho: -4 Torrey Craig: +0 Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr3- The

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +24 as they trail 93-96 after three.

Nikola Jokic: +17 Jamal Murray: +24 Gary Harris: +6 Monte Morris: +2 Paul Millsap: +7 Isaiah Thomas: +12 Will Barton: +6 Mason Plumlee: +2 Malik Beasley: +6 Juancho: -8 Torrey Craig: +0 Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr4- The

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +22 as they lose 112-120

Nikola Jokic: +22 Jamal Murray: +21 Gary Harris: +4 Monte Morris: +8 Paul Millsap: +4 Isaiah Thomas: +9 Will Barton: +9 Mason Plumlee: +2 Malik Beasley: +3 Juancho: -11 Torrey Craig: +0 Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A

___________________________________________________________________________________________

We Suck Again!

Final Thoughts: The foul trouble Jokic is finding himself in lately is a direct result of his incessant whining. He has GOT to stop!!!!! Almost none of these calls go against star players which tells you what the thin-skinned, childish officials think about him. Also, the fix is clearly in.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.
Denver Nuggets Denver Nuggets schedule Denver Nuggets roster Pelicans vs Nuggets coverage The Bird Writes