Mulligan?

LEGENDS! Denver should have NEVER allowed either to play elsewhere, a lesson they didn't learn until Deke left.

The band is FINALLY back together!

Nuggets vs Mavs III: Blizzard Ball

When last these two teams squared off in game 58 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from six players led by Nikola Jokic: +29. No players for Denver were in the red for that match-up as the Nuggets pulled out a victory in Texas, by the final score of 114-104.

In that game, Denver received double figure scoring from seven players, Big Honey came up just shy as so frequently he does, of a 3d. His end line was 19-13-8. When Mejri unexpectedly launched a three in the fourth quarter, the always cheeky Marlowe opined:

"Salah a bit short from three; he didn't quite Mejri it correctly."

As for this game, Dallas is actively tanking and arriving in a blizzard so there are zero excuses for the rested and home-bound Nuggets to thoroughly dominate from start to finish but this is precisely the type of game that Denver struggles to show up for. All the motivation they SHOULD need is that the schedule takes a turn for the horrific immediately following this home-stand and the Rockets are currently nipping at thier heels. Undoubtedly this message will be conveyed by the staff pre-game but here's hoping that it is received for a change.

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Here are some numbers you can use:

Dallas gives up 109.6 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 107.3

The Mavs average 107.9 PPG offensively to the Nuggets 112.3

This results in a net rating for Dallas of -1.8 and +5.1 for Denver

Dallas is 6-27 on the road while Denver is 28-6 in the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

In terms of conference record, the Mavs are 14-26 to the Nuggets 29-14 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition

Denver of course is 2nd in the Western Conference standings, just 1.5 games behind the Warriors while Dallas currently resides in 14th place in the Western Conference, 19 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)
DAL: RPG 45.0 APG 22.7 SPG 6.9 BPG 4.3 FG% 44.6 FT% 73.7 3% 34.1

DEN: RPG 46.7 APG 27.8 SPG 7.8 BPG 4.5 FG% 46.9 FT% 75.6 3% 35.8

The numbers on whole favor the Nuggets but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone.

To that end, the Nuggets have won 13 of their last 20 & 6 of their last 10 games, while the Mavs have been victorious in 5 of their last 20 & 1 of their last 10.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, Dallas only arrived this morning, due to the bizarre weather we are having in Denver and it likely took them half a decade to get from our airport which is located in roughly Kansas, to The Pepsi Can, due to all of the road closures. As such their pre-game rituals and timing simply have to be off kilter tonight and Denver needs to pounce on them as if they share blood with Rocky and the Mavs are a wounded impala.

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For this young Nuggets group, (fourth youngest in the NBA; they were the youngest at the start of the season but tank-moves made by CHI/NY/PHO have rendered them younger, since) individual consistency is simply not a thing so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night. The Nuggets have missed more man-games to injury by a wide margin, than any team in the league. This includes three starters having played fewer games than they have missed. As they are worked back into the rotation, neither can team consistency be expected.

Having said that, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry; a natural scorer/creator and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without Lyles and MPJ.

When Jokic gets a 3D at home, over the course of his career, the Nuggets are undefeated and only once in his 28 career 3D's have the Nuggets lost. In short, these are not hollow, stat seeking ventures but Jokic playing within the offense. He's come up short of a 3D no less than a dozen times this season alone, by one or two P/R/A due to the Nuggets leading big and his sitting out fourth quarters. In such occasions he can be found laughing and cheering his teammates on from the pine.

The man cares about one thing only and that is winning. Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I do expect the Nuggets' rotation to tighten up a bit, so it will likely be an eight man unit, which leaves Craig/Juancho out, situational needs, foul trouble and recycling time excepted.

Food for thought: With Harris/Barton/Millsap returning from injury and again starting, this is what Denver's rotation should consist of:

PG Murray/Morris

SG Harris/Beasley

SF Barton/Harris/Beasley/Lyles

PF Millsap/Lyles/Plumlee

C Jokic/Plumlee/Millsap/Lyles

For this to work Plumlee has got to curtail his fouling, Jokic has GOT to stop taking "Jokic only" fouls to prove a point to officials and defensive communication has got to be at a premium. Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

Prediction: Denver 127 (lap ) - Dallas 95

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Dallas Mavericks Roster

Coach: Rick "The Mask" Carlisle

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
37	Kostas "The Greek Square" Antetokounmpo	PF	21	6' 10"	200 lbs	Dayton	G-Money
5	J.J. "Oh Goodie, Denver!" Barea	PG	34	6' 0"	185 lbs	Northeastern	$3,710,850
40	"No Comparison" Harrison Barnes	SF	26	6' 8"	225 lbs	North Carolina	$24,107,258
45	"Wealthy" Ryan Broekhoff	SG	28	6' 7"	215 lbs	Valparaiso	$838,464
13	Jalen "Daffodil" Brunson	PG	22	6' 3"	190 lbs	Villanova	$1,230,000
77	Luka "I Still Prefer Jeff Buckley's Version" Doncic	SF	19	6' 7"	218 lbs	Slovenia	$6,560,640
10	Dorian "The Delorian" Finney-Smith	SF	25	6' 8"	220 lbs	Florida	$1,544,951
34	Devin "Old Mud" Harris	PG	35	6' 3"	185 lbs	Wisconsin	$1,512,601
6	DeAndre "Hair"Jordan	C	30	6' 11"	265 lbs	Texas A&M	$22,897,200
42	Maximilian "Greatest Germain Player In Mavs History" Kleber	PF	26	6' 11"	240 lbs	Deutchlandia	$1,378,242
3	Daryl "Mark" Macon	SG	23	6' 3"	185 lbs	Arkansas	G-Money
23	Wesley "Don't Call Me Wes" Matthews	SG	32	6' 5"	220 lbs	Marquette	$18,622,514
50	"Tallah" Salah Mejri	C	32	7' 2"	235 lbs	Irania	$1,512,601
41	Dirk "Nicts Als Netto" Nowitzki	PF	40	7' 0"	245 lbs	Deutchlandia	$5,000,000
7	Dwight "Fouling Owl" Powell	PF	27	6' 11"	240 lbs	Stanford	$9,631,250
1	"Hard Hitting" Dennis Smith Jr.	PG	21	6' 3"	195 lbs	North Carolina State	$3,819,960
26	Ray "Captain" Spalding	PF	21	6' 10"	215 lbs	Louisville	$838,464

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	27	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$11,830,358
25	"Mutant" Malik Beasley	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$1,773,840
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	27	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
2	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	23	6' 2"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	24	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$16,517,857
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	23	6' 9"	230 lbs	Espana	$2,166,360
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	23	7' 0"	250 lbs	Gotham	$24,605,181
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	22	6' 10"	225 lbs	Syracuse	$1,874,640
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	23	6' 10"	234 lbs	Kentucky	$3,364,249
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	33	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$29,230,769
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	23	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,349,383
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	21	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$3,499,800
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	28	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$12,917,808
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	20	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$2,894,160
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	29	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,512,601
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	19	6' 9"	214 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	22	7' 0"	255 lbs	UCLA	G-Money

Update: MPJ is still waiting to make his Denver Nuggets/pro debut as he rehabs from multiple back surgeries. Craig is questionable with a shoulder injury & Lyles is out with a Hammy. Wow! That was short! As for the Mavs, Doncic and Antetokounmpo are GTD's with knee & Hip ailments respectively, Nuggets killer Barea is out for the year with an Achilles injury as is Porzingas and his surgically repaired knee. Even though he's recently begun playing 5-5 scrimmages, he'll be held out until the 2019-'20 season.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions have been made and the above roster for the opposing team is inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

Re-Re-up: Lyles is in, Craig is out, injury wise.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 67 DAL (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +25

Jamal Murray: +21

Gary Harris: +0

Monte Morris: +5

Paul Millsap: +18

Mason Plumlee: +4

Malik Beasley: +1

Will Barton: +6

Trey Lyles: N/A

Juancho: +0

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Thomas Welsh: N/A

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Tyler Lydon: G-league

Brandon Goodwin: G-league

Torrey Craig: N/A

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 66 games +1500

Jamal Murray: 61 games +1060

Gary Harris: 42 games +525

Monte Morris: 67 games +793

Paul Millsap: 56 games +529

Mason Plumlee: 67 games +551

Malik Beasley: 67 games +527

Will Barton: 29 games +225

Trey Lyles: 55 games +303

Juancho: 62 games -7

Jared Vanderbilt: 9 games +12

Thomas Welsh: 11 games +22

Isaiah Thomas: 9 games 72

Tyler Lydon: 24 games -2

Brandon Goodwin: 16 games +28

Torrey Craig: 62 games +2

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Nick Young: 3 games -2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +22.73

Jamal Murray: +17.38

Gary Harris: +12.50

Monte Morris: +11.84

Paul Millsap: +9.45

Mason Plumlee: +8.22

Malik Beasley: +7.87

Will Barton: +7.76

Trey Lyles: +5.70

Torrey Craig: +0.03

Juancho: -0.11

Jared Vanderbilt: +1.33

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

Isaiah Thomas:+8.00

Tyler Lydon: -0.08

Brandon Goodwin: +1.75

Torrey Craig: +0.03

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Nick Young: -0.67

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 66:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- For only the eighth time this season, the Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Mavs counter with Brunson, Doncic, Smith, Powell & Dirk.

Data only during this home-stand as my schedule has gotten hectic.

Denver is paced in TPM by Will Barton: +8 as they trail 26-29 after one.

Nikola Jokic: +3 Jamal Murray: -2 Gary Harris: -4 Monte Morris: +1 Paul Millsap: +7 Mason Plumlee: +1 Malik Beasley: -3 Will Barton: +8 Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Qtr2- The

Denver is paced in TPM by Paul Millsap: +10 as they trail 51-57 at the half

Nikola Jokic: +9 Jamal Murray: +4 Gary Harris: -7 Monte Morris: +4 Paul Millsap: +10 Mason Plumlee: +6 Malik Beasley: -6 Will Barton: +4 Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A Isaiah Thomas: N/A

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Qtr3- The

Denver is paced in TPM by Paul Millsap: +20 as they trail 79-89 after three.

Nikola Jokic: +16 Jamal Murray: +12 Gary Harris: -4 Monte Morris: +4 Paul Millsap: +20 Mason Plumlee: +4 Malik Beasley: -4 Will Barton: +6 Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: +0 Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A Isaiah Thomas: N/A

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Qtr4- The

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +25 as they win 100-99

Nikola Jokic: +25 Jamal Murray: +21 Gary Harris: +0 Monte Morris: +5 Paul Millsap: +18 Mason Plumlee: +4 Malik Beasley: +1 Will Barton: +6 Trey Lyles: N/A Juancho: +0 Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A Isaiah Thomas: N/A

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The Nuggets Win!

Final Thoughts: Fucking Nuggets :/

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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