And then there were two... er one?

Caption contest. Go!

The band is FINALLY back together!

Nuggets vs Wolves III: Give Big Honey the damned ball!

The Nuggets name Isaiah Thomas to the starting lineup and sign Anthony "Inbound" Carter &JJ Hickson to 10-day contracts, having both been recently released from prison.

When last these two teams squared off in game 52 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players led by Monte Morris: +39. Two players for Denver were in the red for that match-up led by Paul Millsap: -7 as the Nuggets pulled out a squeaker, 107-106 in Minnesota.

In that game, Denver was without the services of their starting back-court of Murray/Harris as well as Isaiah Thomas. The rest of the starters on that night stepped up in their roles; Jokic with a 3D line of 13-16-10, Beasley/Barton both eclipsing 20 points and Morris with a near 3D line of 17-7-10. Only Millsap was a non-factor on the second night of a B2B on the road, having been 'Sapped of his energy in a spirited victory over the Thunder one night before.

The aforementioned B2B victories drained this team who then went on to lose three straight on the road prior to righting the ship at home

As for this game, fatigue should be a non-factor as Denver hasn't played since the bukake by the bay on Friday, where there Nuggets were once again creamed by the world champs. Tonight, Minnesota will be without their top five center KAT which obviously bodes well as he HATES the Nuggets for still-as-yet-unknown reasons and always elevates his game when the Wolves play the Nuggets.

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Here are some numbers you can use:

Minnesota gives up 113.1 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 107.3

The Wolves average 113.0 PPG offensively to the Nuggets 112.0

This results in a net rating for Minnesota of 0.0 and +4.7 for Denver

Minnesota is 9-25 on the road while Denver is 27-6 in the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

In terms of conference record, the Wolves are 19-22 to the Nuggets 28-14 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition

Denver of course is 2nd in the Western Conference standings, just 1.5 games behind the Warriors while Minnesota currently resides in 10th place in the Western Conference, 13.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)
MIN: RPG 45.3 APG 24.5 SPG 8.5 BPG 5.2 FG% 45.6 FT% 78.9 3% 35.1

DEN: RPG 46.9 APG 27.6 SPG 7.8 BPG 4.5 FG% 46.7 FT% 75.5 3% 35.5

The numbers on whole favor the Nuggets but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone.

To that end, the Nuggets have won 12 of their last 20 & 6 of their last 10 games, while the Wolves have been victorious in 9 of their last 20 & 5 of their last 10.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, With KAT absent, there are zero excuses for Denver not to feast down low. He never guards Big Honey anyway so that match-up between he and Gibson should remain largely similar, but Saric vs Millsap is a huge advantage for Denver (on Paper.)

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For this young Nuggets group, (fourth youngest in the NBA; they were the youngest at the start of the season but tank-moves made by CHI/NY/PHO have rendered them younger, since) individual consistency is simply not a thing so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night. The Nuggets have missed more man-games to injury by a wide margin, than any team in the league. This includes three starters having played fewer games than they have missed. As they and IT are worked back into the rotation, neither can team consistency be expected.

Having said that, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry; a natural scorer/creator and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without Lyles and MPJ.

When Jokic gets a 3D at home, over the course of his career, the Nuggets are undefeated and only once in his 28 career 3D's have the Nuggets lost. In short, these are not hollow, stat seeking ventures but Jokic playing within the offense. He's come up short of a 3D no less than a dozen times this season alone, by one or two P/R/A due to the Nuggets leading big and his sitting out fourth quarters. In such occasions he can be found laughing and cheering his teammates on from the pine.

The man cares about one thing only and that is winning. Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I do expect the Nuggets' rotation to tighten up a bit, so it will likely be a nine man unit, which leaves Craig/Juancho and likely Lyles upon return, out.

Food for thought: With Harris again starting, this is what Denver's rotation should consist of:

PG Murray/Morris/IT

SG Harris/IT/Beasley

SF Barton/Harris/Beasley

PF Millsap/Plumlee

C Jokic/Plumlee

A combination unique amongst the NBA, of being very small in positions 1-3 while exceptionally large at the 4-5. For this to work Plumlee has got to curtail his fouling, Jokic has GOT to stop taking "Jokic only" fouls to prove a point to officials and defensive communication has got to be at a premium. Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

Prediction: Denver (lap ) - Minnesota

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Minnesota Timberwolves Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
31	Keita "Bass-Drop" Bates-Diop	SF	22	6' 9"	229 lbs	Ohio State	$838,464
8	Jerryd Bayless "Shoes"	PG	30	6' 3"	200 lbs	Arizona	$8,575,916
33	Robert "Lord" Covington	SF	27	6' 9"	225 lbs	Tennessee State	$10,464,092
9	Luol "Gorgui" Deng	SF	33	6' 9"	237 lbs	Duke	$1,512,601
5	Gorgui "Luol" Dieng	C	28	6' 11"	252 lbs	Louisville	$15,170,787
67	Taj "The Garage" Gibson	PF	33	6' 9"	232 lbs	USC	$14,000,000
1	"Biased" Tyus Jones	PG	22	6' 2"	196 lbs	Duke	$2,444,053
7	"Pun-ily" James Nunnally	SF	28	6' 7"	208 lbs	UC Santa Barbara	$1,349,383
20	Josh "I lived in a place called Okogie "And I had a little girl in a holler tree"	SG	20	6' 4"	212 lbs	Georgia Tech	$2,160,746
25	Derrick "Not Just Yet Father Time" Rose	PG	30	6' 3"	200 lbs	Memphis	$1,512,601
36	"Super" Dario Saric	PF	24	6' 10"	223 lbs	Kukocia	$2,526,840
0	Jeff "Chinco" Teague	PG	30	6' 2"	195 lbs	Wake Forest	$19,000,000
3	"He Went To" Jared Terrell	SG	23	6' 3"	227 lbs	Rhode Island	G-Money
43	Anthony "The Gargantuan Orphan" Tolliver	PF	33	6' 8"	250 lbs	Creighton	$4,750,000
32	Karl-Anthony "Kat, Not To Be Confused With K.O.T." Towns	C	23	7' 0"	248 lbs	Kentucky	$7,839,435
22	Andrew "Wiley" Wiggins	SF	23	6' 8"	194 lbs	Kansas	$25,467,250
12	C.J. "Way over yonder in the minor key There ain't nobody that can sing like me" Williams	SG	28	6' 5"	226 lbs	North Carolina State	G-Money

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	27	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$11,830,358
25	"Mutant" Malik Beasley	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$1,773,840
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	27	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
2	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	23	6' 2"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	24	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$16,517,857
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	23	6' 9"	230 lbs	Espana	$2,166,360
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	23	7' 0"	250 lbs	Gotham	$24,605,181
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	22	6' 10"	225 lbs	Syracuse	$1,874,640
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	23	6' 10"	234 lbs	Kentucky	$3,364,249
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	33	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$29,230,769
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	23	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,349,383
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	21	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$3,499,800
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	28	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$12,917,808
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	20	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$2,894,160
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	29	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,512,601
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	19	6' 9"	214 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	22	7' 0"	255 lbs	UCLA	G-Money

Update: MPJ is still waiting to make his Denver Nuggets/pro debut as he rehabs from multiple back surgeries. Lyles is out with a Hammy. Wow! That was short! As for the Wolves, Wiggins is questionable due to a bruise, KAT is officially questionable though unlikely to play due to a knee injury, while Covington is out with a knee injury of his own, as is Deng with soreness of the Achilles.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions have been made and the above roster for the opposing team is inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

Re-Re-up: Wiggins and KAT are both good to go while Teague and Rose will sit.

Re-Re-Re-up: Wiggins is back out again. One fickle bruise that is.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 66 MIN (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +12

Jamal Murray: +28

Gary Harris: +15

Monte Morris: +17

Paul Millsap: +26

Mason Plumlee: +20

Malik Beasley: +12

Will Barton: +18

Torrey Craig: +16

Juancho: +0

Jared Vanderbilt: +0

Thomas Welsh: +4

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Tyler Lydon: G-league

Brandon Goodwin: G-league

Trey Lyles: Injured

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 65 games +1475

Jamal Murray: 60 games +1039

Gary Harris: 41 games +525

Monte Morris: 66 games +788

Paul Millsap: 55 games +511

Mason Plumlee: 66 games +547

Malik Beasley: 66 games +526

Will Barton: 28 games +219

Torrey Craig: 62 games +2

Juancho: 61 games -7

Jared Vanderbilt: 9 games +12

Thomas Welsh: 11 games +22

Isaiah Thomas: 9 games 72

Tyler Lydon: 24 games -2

Brandon Goodwin: 16 games +28

Trey Lyles: 55 games +303

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Nick Young: 3 games -2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +22.69

Jamal Murray: +17.32

Gary Harris: +12.80

Monte Morris: +11.94

Paul Millsap: +9.29

Mason Plumlee: +8.29

Malik Beasley: +7.97

Will Barton: +7.82

Torrey Craig: +0.03

Juancho: -0.11

Jared Vanderbilt: +1.33

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

Isaiah Thomas:+8.00

Tyler Lydon: -0.08

Brandon Goodwin: +1.75

Trey Lyles: +5.70

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Nick Young: -0.67

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 60:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- For only the seventh time this season, the Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Wolves counter with Jones, Okogie, Bates-Diop, Saric & KAT.

Data only during this home-stand as my schedule has gotten hectic.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic/Mason Plumlee: +11 as they lead 31-20 after one.

Nikola Jokic: +11 Jamal Murray: +5 Gary Harris: +2 Monte Morris: +7 Paul Millsap: -1 Mason Plumlee: +11 Isaiah Thomas: N/A Malik Beasley: +6 Will Barton: +6 Torrey Craig: N/A Juancho: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A

Qtr2- The

Denver is paced in TPM by Mason Plumlee: +17 as they lead 58-48 at the half

Nikola Jokic: +7 Jamal Murray: +9 Gary Harris: +6 Monte Morris: +9 Paul Millsap: +9 Mason Plumlee: +17 Isaiah Thomas: N/A Malik Beasley: +7 Will Barton: +14 Torrey Craig: +0 Juancho: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Qtr3- The

Denver is paced in TPM by Monte Morris: +21 as they lead 94-78 after three.

Nikola Jokic: +7 Jamal Murray: +20 Gary Harris: +12 Monte Morris: +21 Paul Millsap: +18 Mason Plumlee: +19 Isaiah Thomas: N/A Malik Beasley: +10 Will Barton: +14 Torrey Craig: +0 Juancho: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Qtr4- The

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +28 as they win going away, 133-107

Nikola Jokic: +12 Jamal Murray: +28 Gary Harris: +15 Monte Morris: +17 Paul Millsap: +26 Mason Plumlee: +20 Malik Beasley: +12 Will Barton: +18 Torrey Craig: +16 Juancho: +0 Jared Vanderbilt: +0 Thomas Welsh: +4 Isaiah Thomas: N/A

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The Nuggets Win!

Final Thoughts: I hope I'm wrong about this and KAT isn't one of those Harden/Westbrook types who is just satisfied with statistics and couldn't possibly care less about winning but he definitely puts off that vibe. I'm also still waiting for definitive word as to why he hates Jokic so much 'cause it's palpable.

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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