Mulligan?

LEGENDS! Denver should have NEVER allowed either to play elsewhere, a lesson they didn't learn until Deke left.

The band is NEARLY back together! Harris may not start and will be on restricted minutes but the only players who are currently inactive due to injury are Trey Lyles and MPJ. Denver is healthier than they have been at any point this season, just in time for a brutal second half schedule.

Nuggets vs Mavs II: Hallelujah! They are healed!

When last these two teams squared off in game 30 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players led by Nikola Jokic: +33. Three players were in the red for that match-up, led by Juancho: -11 as the Nuggets won a shootout, 126-118 in The Mile High City

As for this game, gone are Wesley Matthews, (the other) Dennis Smith and DeAndre Jordan. In to replace them are... well, nobody of consequence yet but to say that Dallas won that trade where seemingly NY over-reacted without exploring league options to suit KP's tacit trade request, would be a gross understatement.

Dallas now has two cornerstone players to build upon in rookie sensation Luka Doncic and one of many in the unicornicopia, Kristaps Porzingas. Some say they should be tanking to improve their draft stock with a diminished supporting cast. Those people are math nerds (they prefer the nomenclature "Geek" so I refuse their highly-nerdy request) who have never competed at any level and are devaluing the importance of establishing a winning culture in a young and talented group, as well as the importance which unquantifiable aspects such as team chemistry play.

Here are some numbers you can use:

Dallas gives up 108.7 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 107.1

The Mavs average 108.7 PPG offensively to the Nuggets 112.0

This results in a net rating for Dallas of 0.0 and +4.9 for Denver

Dallas is 20-9 at home while Denver is 14-14 away from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

In terms of conference record, the Mavs are 14-20 to the Nuggets 24-10 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition.

Denver of course is 2nd in the Western Conference standings, 2.5 games behind the Warriors while Dallas currently resides in 12th place in the Western Conference, 15.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)
DAL: RPG 45.6 APG 22.6 SPG 7.1 BPG 4.4 FG% 44.8 FT% 74.1 3% 34.6

DEN: RPG 46.3 APG 27.6 SPG 7.7 BPG 4.5 FG% 47.2 FT% 75.8 3% 35.4

The numbers on whole obviously favor the Nuggets but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone.

To that end, The Nuggets have won 13 of their last 20 & 7 of their last 10 games, while the Mavs have been victorious in 8 of their last 20 & 5 of their last 10.

For this young Nuggets group, (fourth youngest in the NBA; they were the youngest at the start of the season but tank-moves made by CHI/NY/PHO have rendered them younger, since) individual consistency is simply not a thing so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night.

Having said that, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry; a natural scorer/creator and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without Lyles and MPJ.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, FOR THE FIRST TIME ALL SEASON DENVER IS HEALTHY!!!!!!! Beware NBA!

Prediction: Denver (lap ) 125 - Dallas 107.Same prediction as the most recent game vs Sacramento 'cause why the fuck not?

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Dallas Mavericks Roster

Coach: Rick "The Mask" Carlisle

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
37	Kostas "The Greek Square" Antetokounmpo	PF	21	6' 10"	200 lbs	Dayton	G-Money
5	J.J. "Oh Goodie, Denver!" Barea	PG	34	6' 0"	185 lbs	Northeastern	$3,710,850
40	"No Comparison" Harrison Barnes	SF	26	6' 8"	225 lbs	North Carolina	$24,107,258
45	"Wealthy" Ryan Broekhoff	SG	28	6' 7"	215 lbs	Valparaiso	$838,464
13	Jalen "Daffodil" Brunson	PG	22	6' 3"	190 lbs	Villanova	$1,230,000
77	Luka "I Still Prefer Jeff Buckley's Version" Doncic	SF	19	6' 7"	218 lbs	Slovenia	$6,560,640
10	Dorian "The Delorian" Finney-Smith	SF	25	6' 8"	220 lbs	Florida	$1,544,951
34	Devin "Old Mud" Harris	PG	35	6' 3"	185 lbs	Wisconsin	$1,512,601
6	DeAndre "Hair"Jordan	C	30	6' 11"	265 lbs	Texas A&M	$22,897,200
42	Maximilian "Greatest Germain Player In Mavs History" Kleber	PF	26	6' 11"	240 lbs	Deutchlandia	$1,378,242
3	Daryl "Mark" Macon	SG	23	6' 3"	185 lbs	Arkansas	G-Money
23	Wesley "Don't Call Me Wes" Matthews	SG	32	6' 5"	220 lbs	Marquette	$18,622,514
50	"Tallah" Salah Mejri	C	32	7' 2"	235 lbs	Irania	$1,512,601
41	Dirk "Nicts Als Netto" Nowitzki	PF	40	7' 0"	245 lbs	Deutchlandia	$5,000,000
7	Dwight "Fouling Owl" Powell	PF	27	6' 11"	240 lbs	Stanford	$9,631,250
1	"Hard Hitting" Dennis Smith Jr.	PG	21	6' 3"	195 lbs	North Carolina State	$3,819,960
26	Ray "Captain" Spalding	PF	21	6' 10"	215 lbs	Louisville	$838,464

Denver Nuggets Roster

Update: MPJ is still waiting to make his Denver Nuggets/pro debut as he rehabs from multiple back surgeries. Lyles is out with a Hammy. Wow! That was short! As for the Mavs, no injuries have been reported.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades have been made and the above roster for the opposing team is inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

Re-re-up: Luka is out tonight which means we all lose :(

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Data:

TPM™ Game 58 DAL

Nikola Jokic: +29

Jamal Murray: +17

Gary Harris:+9

Monte Morris: +8

Isaiah Thomas: +10

Paul Millsap: +20

Mason Plumlee: +15

Will Barton: +4

Malik Beasley: +12

Juancho: +0

Jared Vanderbilt: +0

Tyler Lydon: +0

Torrey Craig: N/A

Thomas Welsh: G-league

Brandon Goodwin: G-league

Trey Lyles: Injured

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 57 games +1317

Jamal Murray: 52 games +877

Gary Harris: 33 games +457

Monte Morris: 58 games +705

Isaiah Thomas: 2 games +21

Paul Millsap: 46 games +417

Mason Plumlee: 58 games +486

Will Barton: 19 games +157

Malik Beasley: 58 games +459

Juancho: 55 games +17

Jared Vanderbilt: 4 games +10

Tyler Lydon: 22 games -2

Torrey Craig: 54 games -16

Thomas Welsh: 9 games +18

Brandon Goodwin: 16 games +28

Trey Lyles: 55 games +303

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Nick Young: 3 games -2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +23.10

Jamal Murray: +16.87

Gary Harris: +13.85

Monte Morris: +12.16

Isaiah Thomas:+10.50

Paul Millsap: +9.07

Mason Plumlee: +8.38

Will Barton: +8.26

Malik Beasley: +7.91

Juancho: +0.25

Jared Vanderbilt: +2.50

Tyler Lydon: -0.09

Torrey Craig: -0.30

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

Brandon Goodwin: +1.75

Trey Lyles: +5.70

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Nick Young: -0.67

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 57:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 14th iteration of the starting five, consisting of Murray, Beasley, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Mavs counter with Brunson, Hardaway, Smith, Kleber & Mejri. This one is getting off to a late start due to a camera encumbrance behind one of the baskets (hopefully not the one Denver shoots on.) One three for each squad gets the scoring underway. Jokic makes an early water-polo-touchdown pass, if I may mix sports metaphors in describing Denver's All-Star accurately. Mejri hits a three, his first of the season and possibly of his career and Dallas leads by four at 8:15. It's raining threes early (as seemingly always) and the lead is up to six at 6:36. Barton is off to yet another rough start; he's a step behind defensively and reaching as a result while making less than crisp passes on the other end.

Plumlee is first off the pine for the good guys at 5:25, trailing by two. When Murray is cold like this, I'd love to see Malone pull him, tell him to breathe and immediately re-insert him. This little nuance is often highly effective for youngsters. Harris, Morris and IT enter at 4:20 (smoke 'em if you've got 'em), leading by one. How's that for a trio of bench guards? The officials miss an OBVIOUS slap that wasn't called until seconds later, when Dirk raised his hand. Which ref is on the take tonight? Koz has got to be going nanners and I wish I was listening. Dallas shoots to a 5 point lead on the strength of a 7-2 run with under two minutes remaining. IT is showing rust more so in his previous (first) outing for the Nuggets. Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +8 but trail 30-25 after one.

Nikola Jokic: +8 Jamal Murray: +5 Gary Harris: +2 Monte Morris: +0 Isaiah Thomas: -3 Paul Millsap: +5 Will Barton: -6 Mason Plumlee: +4 Malik Beasley: +6 Juancho: N/A Torrey Craig: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A

Qtr2- The combination of IT/Plumlee is going to be deadly in the P&R once they gain familiarity. IT sticks a three and is having a quiet second period resurgence with a line of 5-3-2. He then earns his third foul followed by a T and takes a seat. My curse-game is even stronger than Marlowe's. Murray is tripped up and re-injures his ankle!!!!!!! FUCK! He remains in but can not seem to shake the injury bug this season, though he's played through most of it. Harris meanwhile is showing zero rust which is a surprising development when compared to the rest of the numerous Nuggets players who have returned form injuries this season. Denver ties it up on the strength of a 5-0 run at 7:45. The Nuggets have not been the beneficiary of a favorable whistle to say the very least.

Craig seems to be the odd man out of the rotation but I don't really get why Juancho isn't sitting next to him on the bench with all of these healthy bodies available. Denver is ice-cold but only trail by five with 5:20 to play. The refs are awarding each and every 50/50 ball to Dallas, as standard operating procedure. Jokic earns his third foul, all on the offensive end and he checks out with 4:05 remaining. "Millsap gets Kleber to jump to the maxi" sayeth Marlowe. Not one of his better puns but I'll allow it. Maybe he just needs some orange slices at halftime. It's even-Steven at 46 with 2:47 to go. 'Sap is the first man to reach double digits for Denver as they take the lead by two at 2:30. Juancho is currently the only player of 10 for Denver who has yet to score. Hastings is passing dirty notes to Marlowe with under a minute to go and a two point lead. The Nuggets are led in TPM by Jamal Murray: +14 as they lead 52-50 at the half.

Nikola Jokic: +8 Jamal Murray: +14 Gary Harris: +4 Monte Morris: +0 Isaiah Thomas: +1 Paul Millsap: +10 Will Barton: -2 Mason Plumlee: +8 Malik Beasley: +5 Juancho: +0 Torrey Craig: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A

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Qtr3- The Nuggets "come out perky" says Marlowe and they have a six point lead at 10:49. The defensive intensity has certainly picked up as is usually the case for the Nuggets in the third period. Denver has scored the first nine points of the quarter and lead by nine at 9:10. Beasley makes two in double digits for Denver. Soon-after he's joined in that regard by Big Honey. Millsap is fouled about seven times in a loose ball scramble by Smith and it results in a jump ball instead. The lead is up to 11 at the midway point. It's good to see the starters for Denver come out with intensity on both ends but it'd be nice if they could bring it from jump-street once in a while. The Joker is on 3D watch with 11-9-5 at 5:43. I have Pink Floyd's "Scream Thy Last Scream" repeating in my head for some reason. I'm not complaining as my brain is usually occupied by far shittier music.

The lead is 13 after Jamal who is suddenly hitting shots, drills one from downtown at 4:34. B2B threes by Murray and Harris and the lead is up to 17 at 2:50. The Blue Arrow makes four in double digits for Denver. An IT three makes it 20 with just under two minutes to go. Plumlee makes five in double digits for Denver who has thus-far double up on the Mavs 26-18 in the third period. Millsap has a 2D with 15-11-2. Paul has had some truly tremendous rebounds in this half. Plumlee also has a 2D with 12-11-3 and the Nuggets leading with under a minute to go. Mejri might be the best flopping center in the league (not to be confused with best flipping center; just fucking curse if you're gonna curse people) as he draws Plumlee's fourth foul. Dallas is finishing strong and have shaved it to 15 late in the period. Denver is paced in TPM by Paul Millsap/Nikola Jokic: +22 as they after three.

Nikola Jokic: +22 Jamal Murray: +21 Gary Harris: +7 Monte Morris: +1 Isaiah Thomas: +4 Paul Millsap: +22 Will Barton: +5 Mason Plumlee: +13 Malik Beasley: +13 Juancho: +0 Torrey Craig: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: N/A Tyler Lydon: N/A

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Qtr4- This lead is rather impressive when you consider that not a single 50-50 call has gone the way of the Nuggets tonight. IT makes six in double digits for Denver after hitting a three at 11:20. Another three for IT and the lead is up to 24 for Denver as Dallas is forced to call a timeout at 9:28. This has the look of about the 12-13th game in which Big Honey will come up short on a 3D due to having a large lead. He's yet to play and likely wont in the fourth period, so his final line should be 13-9-7. I am pleasantly surprised as Jokic checks in following a timeout. the lead for the Nuggets is down to 20 at 7:45 following a layup by Brunson. IT misses two at the charity stripe, likely the result of fatigue. Marlowe redeems himself with this gem: "Salah a bit short from three. He didn't quite Mejri it correctly." Nikola has his 40th 2D with a line of 15-12-7. Brunson CLEARLY throws the ball away on a drive he fumbled out of bounds and the officials award the ball to Dallas, which surprises me zero percent.

Hard not to believe that there is point shaving at play in light of recent news and the late scratch of Doncic. I wish I didn't have to be skeptical of this spectacle but it's impossible not to be. Jokic has the bejesuz whacked out of him, right in the face and the ref reluctantly makes the call. Jokic earns a T for complaining once again. This was for saying "are you watching?" which is blatant misuse of authority on the part of Kevin Cutler. Denver leads by 16 with 2:52 remaining. If this were a closer game I'd be surprised if a fight of some sort didn't result of the one sided officiating. Jokic says "about time" after receiving a call on a hack by Mejri and this time does NOT earn a T. Entirely arbitrary, that. Barton makes seven in double digits for Denver. Lydon/Vanderbilt check in and this one is ova! Jokic comes up just shy of his 3D with a line of 19-13-8. Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +29 as they win in a blowout not comparable to the final score, 114-104.

Nikola Jokic: +29 Jamal Murray: +17 Gary Harris: +9 Monte Morris: +8 Isaiah Thomas: +10 Paul Millsap: +20 Will Barton: +4 Mason Plumlee: +15 Malik Beasley: +12 Juancho: +0 Torrey Craig: N/A Jared Vanderbilt: +0 Tyler Lydon: +0

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The Nuggets Win!

Final Thoughts: Perhaps the most poorly officiated game I've witnessed all season long.

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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