Mulligan?

LEGENDS! Denver should have NEVER allowed either to play elsewhere, a lesson they didn't learn until Deke left.

Keepin' the seat warm for Barton, Harris and Millsap.

For context with regard to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

Nuggets vs Dallas: Doncic Does Denver

When last these two teams squared off in game 64 of last season, the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players led by Will Barton/Wilson Chandler: +15, who will both obviously be out of play in this one. The Nuggets starting back-court of Murray and Harris had an uncharacteristically piss-poor performance as the only representatives of the team in the red for that game, led by Jamal Murray: -5. Of these two, only Murray will be available tonight and he's dealing with numerous injuries himself. The end result of their previous encounter; Denver drilled in disheartening defeat in Dallas, by the score of 118-107.

While the Nuggets had seven players in double figures that night, the starting unit was listless, with Jokic/Harris/Murray combining for an abysmal 21 points on a putrid 9-30 shooting. Meanwhile all of the Mavs starters were in double figures led by Yogi Ferrell's 24 and a 2D from DSJ, both of whom Denver will fortunately not have to contend with tonight, nor Never-Nude Nerlens Noel who had an 8-14 night. What they will have to figure out is rookie sensation Luka Doncic which the league is coming to realize is no easy task.

I own hundreds of jerseys including at least one of every single Nuggets player, past or present (dating back all the way to the Denver Rockets days and including the likes of Ralph Simpson, Spencer Haywood, Byron Beck etc) that I've ever cared for. I have at least one of each and every home/away/alt jersey in the history of this franchise including the new rainbow skyline and my personal favorite the "Mile High City" Association jerseys. Other than the four major pro sports franchises here in Denver, the only jerseys I'd ever acquired previously have been one of Jordan and one of Pippen, my two all-time favorite non-Nuggets-NBA-ers. That will change shortly as I couldn't resist reaching out to procure one for Kostas "The Greek Square" Antetokounmpo's more distinguished older brother Freaky Greeky and of course, one for Dallas' prized rookie Doncic.

I'm excited for their arrival some time next week. I'm excited to get to watch Luka play against the team that I love for the first time in his career. I am NOT excited for the sizable challenge this will present for the preposterously thin, Western Conference leading, second youngest team in the NBA.

As for this game, seemingly unfazed by the step-up in competition, Luka is averaging 18.2/6.7/4.6 on 44/36/77 splits which are obviously not your typical rookie numbers. Like Denver, the Mavs have six players averaging double figures with another couple knocking at the door. These two teams score at a nearly identical per-game rate but where Denver has the clear advantage is in defensive PPG where they are about five points better than Dallas. With that said, not many people expected the Mavs to be in the playoff picture in the ridiculously competitive West and they are a mere 4.5 games behind the Nuggets for first, which places them currently as the seventh seed. What is truly remarkable is that they are just 2.5 games ahead of the second to last team in the West, Utah!

Dallas has lost two in a row while Denver are winners of three straight and eight of their last ten, despite missing three starters, having two current starters playing through seriously debilitating injuries, being short four of their six best players (on paper) for the vast majority of the season and leading the league by a wide margin in man-games lost due to injury.

The Mavs are just 2-10 on the road while the Nuggets are 12-3 at home, so if we are to overlook injuries (the way the national media, particularly ESPN continue to) then all signs point towards a blowout for the good guys but the injuries are unfortunately VERY real and even without them, this is precisely the type of game that Denver traditionally struggles with and they will need to prove that they can win the games they are supposed to AND get healthy before I'm willing to call this team truly elite.

Prediction: Denver 101- Dallas 97 The aforementioned four letter network's prediction for tonight's outcome frankly frightens the living shit out of me.

But then consider the source, as this is the totality of their listed injuries for this Denver Nuggets unit:

Denver Nuggets
NAME	STATUS	DATE
Will Barton	Out	Dec 17
Comment: Barton (groin) is listed as out for Tuesday's tilt with the Mavericks.

Go Nuggets!

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Dallas Mavericks Roster

Coach: Rick "The Mask" Carlisle

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
37	Kostas "The Greek Square" Antetokounmpo	PF	21	6' 10"	200 lbs	Dayton	G-Money
5	J.J. "Oh Goodie, Denver!" Barea	PG	34	6' 0"	185 lbs	Northeastern	$3,710,850
40	"No Comparison" Harrison Barnes	SF	26	6' 8"	225 lbs	North Carolina	$24,107,258
45	"Wealthy" Ryan Broekhoff	SG	28	6' 7"	215 lbs	Valparaiso	$838,464
13	Jalen "Daffodil" Brunson	PG	22	6' 3"	190 lbs	Villanova	$1,230,000
77	Luka "I Still Prefer Jeff Buckley's Version" Doncic	SF	19	6' 7"	218 lbs	Slovenia	$6,560,640
10	Dorian "The Delorian" Finney-Smith	SF	25	6' 8"	220 lbs	Florida	$1,544,951
34	Devin "Old Mud" Harris	PG	35	6' 3"	185 lbs	Wisconsin	$1,512,601
6	DeAndre "Hair"Jordan	C	30	6' 11"	265 lbs	Texas A&M	$22,897,200
42	Maximilian "Greatest Germain Player In Mavs History" Kleber	PF	26	6' 11"	240 lbs	Deutchlandia	$1,378,242
3	Daryl "Mark" Macon	SG	23	6' 3"	185 lbs	Arkansas	G-Money
23	Wesley "Don't Call Me Wes" Matthews	SG	32	6' 5"	220 lbs	Marquette	$18,622,514
50	"Tallah" Salah Mejri	C	32	7' 2"	235 lbs	Irania	$1,512,601
41	Dirk "Nicts Als Netto" Nowitzki	PF	40	7' 0"	245 lbs	Deutchlandia	$5,000,000
7	Dwight "Fouling Owl" Powell	PF	27	6' 11"	240 lbs	Stanford	$9,631,250
1	"Hard Hitting" Dennis Smith Jr.	PG	21	6' 3"	195 lbs	North Carolina State	$3,819,960
26	Ray "Captain" Spalding	PF	21	6' 10"	215 lbs	Louisville	$838,464

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	27	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$11,830,358
25	Malik "The Beas Knees" Beasley	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$1,773,840
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	27	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
2	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	23	6' 2"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	24	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$16,517,857
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	23	6' 9"	230 lbs	Espana	$2,166,360
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	23	7' 0"	250 lbs	Gotham	$24,605,181
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	22	6' 10"	225 lbs	Syracuse	$1,874,640
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	23	6' 10"	234 lbs	Kentucky	$3,364,249
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	33	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$29,230,769
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	23	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,349,383
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	21	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$3,499,800
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	28	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$12,917,808
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	20	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$2,894,160
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	29	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,512,601
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	19	6' 9"	214 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	22	7' 0"	255 lbs	UCLA	G-Money
6	Nick "The Answer (To A Question Never Posed) Young	SG	33	6' 7"	210 lbs	USC	$1,042,584

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Harris is out indefinitely with numerous ailments of lower extremities. Millsap is out for the next 1.5 months with a broken big toe in his right foot. Murray is "banged up" everywhere; specifically with a bone bruise of the right shin as well as a right forearm injury but he's tough as nails and gutting it out. Barton had successful surgery on his abductor and hip. He is week to week (whatever that means.) Juancho is questionable with yet another core injury, currently plaguing this team. As for Dal, Smith is out. That's it... just DSJ.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 30 Dal

Jamal Murray: +29

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +20

Brandon Goodwin: +0

Nick Young: -1

Gary Harris: Injured

Malik Beasley: +3

Torrey Craig: -6

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: N/A

Will Barton: Injured

Juancho Hernangomez: -11

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: Injured

Paul Millsap: Injured

Trey Lyles: +7

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +33

Mason Plumlee: +11

Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 30 games +505

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 30 games +366

Brandon Goodwin: 1 games +0

Nick Young: 3 games +3

Gary Harris: 21 games +315

Malik Beasley: 30 games +151

Torrey Craig: 25 games +5

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 2 games +33

Juancho Hernangomez: 29 games +47

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 26 games +238

Trey Lyles: 30 games +177

Tyler Lydon: 9 games +9

Nikola Jokic: 30 games +599

Mason Plumlee: 29 games +222

Thomas Welsh: 6 games +2

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +16.83

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +12.20

Brandon Goodwin: N/A

Nick Young: +1.00

Gary Harris: +15.00

Malik Beasley: +5.03

Torrey Craig: +0.20

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +16.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +1.62

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +9.52

Trey Lyles: 5.90

Tyler Lydon: +1.00

Nikola Jokic: +19.97

Mason Plumlee: +7.66

Thomas Welsh: +0.33

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 29:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets trot out their 7th iteration of the injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Craig, Juancho, Plumlee & Jokic. The Mavs counter with Brunson, Matthews, Doncic, Barnes and Jordan. Juancho is giving it a go and I'm so happy! Every 50th kernel or so of the Dollar Tree popcorn I'm eating tastes exactly like beats and I'm not a fan. I demand my dollar back! Dallas is 2-2 from beyond the arc and lead by four early, at 10.00. This Doncho match-up should be fun. Fuck you Rodney Mott! The Roman Column for Denver has a huge size advantage over Dallas and the Nuggets have a two point lead at the time of the first break, at 6:59. Doncic, with a LEGAL step back three over The Joker; Fuck you James Harden!

It's all perimeter for the Mavs who can not miss from downtown where they are 5-7 and have a seven point lead at 5:36. Jordan has his second foul at 5:22 and must exit with a five point lead as Beasley and Morris are first off the pine at this point for Denver. Nuggets killer JJ Barea is also in. Jokic is first in double figures at 4:11 trailing by four. Dirk checks in at 3:45 and gets a rousing ovation from the canned crowd; you love to hear that. Craig earns his second foul and exits at 3:15, trailing by two. Monte has two early fouls as well at 1:41 and he's forced to stay in by lack of healthy bodies and foul trouble for teammates. Lyles hits his first two from distance which is a vitally important turn of events for the "one time Kentuckian/Canadian" as Marlowe puts it. The latter gives the Nuggets the lead. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +8 as they lead 34-33 after one.

Qtr2- I just have a feeling I'm going to be saying something about Doncic here. Not so, Imma talk Nick Young who is in to start out the second, just like the last game. 3-3 from distance for Lyles! He already has 13 and he's the second Nugget to reach double figures at 10:10, leading by three. The convenience store has been open all night as the Mavs are getting anything they want from beyond the arc, to the tune of 7-11. A three by Dirk cuts it to two. Murray already has nine assists at 8:28 as Denver leads by five. Dallas is already in the bonus at 7:24 in a tie game. I really wish that Altitude TV would leave the score/clock on screen when they cut to last-play replays etc. Murray has already tied his career high of 10 assists with 6:22 to go in the first half! Denver has four players already with two fouls and I sincerely hope that Malone pays attention to this for a change. Beasley makes three in double figures. Of the nine Nuggets to play, only Juancho has not committed a foul.

Denver leads by two nonetheless at 4:40. Murray now has a career high 11 assists at 4:15. Dallas is incredibly. 10-15 from distance and they lead by two with 3:31 remaining. Craig earns his third foul and that is entirely on Malone. Young needs to be out there as well as Lyles/Lydon for Plumlee/Jokic who each have two fouls with a full 3:20 to go! Juancho draws his nightly foul on a three attempt and Denver leads by one at 2.01. Have I said fuck you Rodney Mott yet? Well Fuck you Rodney Mott. Jordan earns his third foul and checks out with 1:22 remaining. Jokic has an impressive 22-9-2 line while Murray sports an equally impressive 6-2-13 line. Jokic narrowly averts his third foul and Malone MUST be spoken to about this! Plumlee goes coast to coast to close out the half on a beautiful off hand layup. Denver is paced in TPM by Murray/Jokic +15 as they lead 74-69 at the half.

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Qtr3- Fuck you Rodney Mott! Denver scored a season high (for any half) 74 first half points and played almost zero defense. Murray has a 13-1 A/T ratio on the night! Jokic with a LEGAL step back three; fuck you James Harden! Big Honey earns two straight fouls on terrible calls by the officials, followed by a Malone T and the lead is down to two at 9:45. Jokic remains in. Not to be outdone, Craig earns HIS fourth but this one was at least legit. According to the referees, Dallas has committed only eight fouls thus-far! Torrey also remains in. Jordan misses from roughly seven feet away and Marlowe deadpans "that's a little bit out of his range." Plumlee makes four in double figures for the Nuggets who lead by three at 7:20. Denver leads by five at the time of the first break of the period, at 7:07. Jokic has his 2D with a line of 24-10-3. Murray makes five in double figures for the Nuggets. Dallas will once again be in the penalty following the next Denver foul, already at 6:54. Murray has a 2D with a line of 10-4-14. Dallas is hanging in there, trailing by just one at 6:00. Doncic has a 2D of his own and Dallas is in the penalty, as Beasley earns his fourth foul at 5:37. The Mavs take the lead on an alley-oop to Jordan at 5:10.

Juancho is struggling mightily on D and I've gotta think the Nuggets might have been wise to rest him tonight. Denver can not buy a whistle when they attack the rim and are trailing by two at 4:04. Beasley gets his fifth foul and Denver is in DEEP, DEEP foul trouble. Jordan hacks the bejesus out of Juancho and the ref calls it only after seeing that he missed the shot, Jordan's fourth (called) foul on the night. Carlisle's campaigning to the officials has been the key influence in this game so far, one of many reasons he's amongst the best in the business. Juancho makes six players in double figures for Denver at 2:54, leading by one. Craig gets his fifth foul on a flop by Barea at 2:26. Beasley replaces Craig, five fouls and all. ONLY JORDAN HAS MORE THAN TWO FOULS FOR DALLAS! Jokic currently has four while Beasley/Craig already have five. Powell has nothing for The Joker and Denver leads by six on the strength of a 10-0 run at 1:18. Jokic is taking over and the lead is all the way up to 10 with seconds remaining. He has 30-13-3! Brandon Goodwin makes his Denver Nuggets debut and plays all of 2.9 seconds which won't likely register as an appearance on BBref. Denver is paced in TPM by Plumlee +11, Morris +13, Murray +21 & Jokic +28 as they lead 105-95 after three.

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Qtr4- Jordan picks up his 5th foul with his hand caught in the cookie jar, in the opening moments of the fourth period. Jokic hacks him on the other end and the three blind mice call the foul on Young. The bad officiating is predictably evening out, both fan-bases have a reason to gripe and neither would be wrong. Jordan fouls out, the ref realizes that would have been the case and he instead calls it on Lyles! Unbelievable! The lead is down to three as the Nuggets are getting sloppy with the ball on offense. Denver really has no business winning this one, refs or not the way they are playing. The only reasons they are winning are that Jamal looks like a point guard and King Kong on a ladder on top of Wilt Chamberlain on a ladder would have nothing for Jokic, defensively tonight, to take poetic license with two of Marlowe's favorite phrases. Big Honey rests at 8:45 up three and it's nervous time.Matthews uses one of George Carlin's seven words you cant say on television, loudly I might add, several times from within point blank range of the official, before he decides to call the T.

Jordan fouls out yet again but the ref is still denying the obvious. Jokic checks back in at 6:42, up by four. The refs mercifully remove Jordan from the game so that they can stop avoiding calling his penalties. Morris makes seven in double figures for Denver with a three followed by Murray stone-cold stuffing Mathews in the post, going coast to coast in a flurry for Murray and the lead is nine at 5:15! Jamal is flirting with a 3D with a line of 15-6-14. The lead remains nine in this unforeseen high-scoring affair, at 3:06. Morris is out there to close and with good reason, up seven with two minutes remaining. A standing three from The Blue Arrow should just about cinch it at 1:19 in a 10 point game. Dallas deploys the foul-game strategy and this one is ova! The Joker finishes with a line of 32-16-4 while Murray keeps pace with his 22-7-15 contribution. Denver is paced in TPM by Plumlee +11, Morris +20, Murray +29 & Jokic +33 as they win a shootout, 126-118.
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Final Thoughts: The Nuggets two remaining starters are likely their two best players. That was very apparent on this night, in a way it perhaps never has been before.

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The Nuggets Win!

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