FanPost

TPM™ 2018-'19 Game 57 vs Sacramento

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A bit of a Fat Albert vibe but I can dig it!

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My all time favorite NBA Player.

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The band is NEARLY back together, with only Harris missing from the starting unit and IT set to make his Nuggets debut tonight! The only other inactive players are the still-injured MPJ and Lydon.

Nuggets vs Kings III: IT thawed!

When last these two teams squared off in game 36 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from three players led by Jamal Murray: +25. Three players were in the red for that match-up, led by Monte Morris: -4 as the Nuggets came back from a huge deficit on the road, to pull out a fantastic victory with a final sore of 117-113.

In that contest, the Nuggets came back from 25 points down and tied their all time high by winning after trailing by 19 in the second half. Jokic and Murray combined for a stellar line of 62-20-12 on the night, to offset the 29 put up by Buddy Hield.

As for this game, I pity any team who faces the Nuggets tonight with IT making his debut in front of a raucous home crowd at The Can, in the final game before the All-Star break. Someone in the media (it escapes me at the moment and I don't want to miscredit someone, so apologies) rightly pointed out that the moment of Nick Young checking in and later hitting a three in Denver was amongst, if not the very loudest the arena has been this season so when IT checks in against his former team this place is going to explode. The Warriors + the Bucks + Wilt Chamberlain on a ladder and eleventy brazillian mini-Ditkas stand no chance vs the emotional adrenaline we are to be treated by tonight.

Here are some numbers you can use:

Sacramento gives up 114.5 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 106.9

The Kings average 113.3 PPG offensively to the Nuggets 111.8

This results in a net rating for Sacramento of -1.2 and +4.9 for Denver

Sacramento is 11-15 on the road while Denver is 24-4 in the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

In terms of conference record, the Kings are 16-20 to the Nuggets 23-10 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition.

Denver of course is 2nd in the Western Conference standings, 3 games behind the Warriors while Sacramento currently resides in 8th place in the Western Conference, 11 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)
SAC: RPG 45.1 APG 25.6 SPG 8.4 BPG 4.8 FG% 46.6 FT% 71.1 3% 37.9

DEN: RPG 46.2 APG 27.6 SPG 7.7 BPG 4.6 FG% 47.2 FT% 75.6 3% 35.6

The numbers on whole favor the Nuggets but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone.

To that end, The Nuggets have won 13 of their last 20 & 7 of their last 10 games, while the Kings have been victorious in 8 of their last 20 & 11 of their last 20.

For this young Nuggets group, (fourth youngest in the NBA; they were the youngest at the start of the season but tank-moves made by CHI/NY/PHO have rendered them younger, since) individual consistency is simply not a thing so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night.

Having said that, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry; a natural scorer/creator and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without Harris and MPJ.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, Fox is as fast as they come on penetrate-&-dish sets, Sacramento is absolutely LOADED with shooters and are one of the best in the NBA from beyond the arc, while Denver has struggled since early December in defending the three-ball. That however is a palpably different arrangement with Millsap back in the lineup. It's remarkable how much better the team defense functions with him in there. He's the glue that holds this team together, certainly on Defense but in more ways than one.

Prediction: Denver (lap ) 125 - Sacramento 107

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Sacramento Kings Roster

Coach: David "The Maestro" Joerger

NO Name POS Age HT WT College Salary
35 Marvin "Angry Paper" Bagley III PF 19 6' 11" 234 lbs Duke $7,305,600
88 "The Other" Nemanja Bjelica PF 30 6' 10"
234 lbs Sř̩bija
$6,500,000
8 Bogdan "No Longer The Other" Bogdanovic
SG 26 6' 6" 205 lbs Sř̩bija $9,000,000
00 Willie "Or Wont He" Cauley-Stein C 25 7' 0" 240 lbs
Kentucky $4,696,875
3 Yogi "Beary" Ferrell PG
25
6'0"
180 lbs
Indiana $3,000,000
5 De'Aaron "Fantastic Mr" Fox PG 20 6' 3" 175 lbs
Kentucky $5,470,920
32 Wenyen "The Angel" Gabriel F 21 6' 9" 205 lbs Kentucky G-Money
20 Harry "Styles" Giles PF 20 6' 10"
240 lbs Duke $2,207,040
24 "He Got A Boo-Boo" Buddy Hield SG 24 6' 4" 214 lbs Oklahoma $3,844,760
25 Justin "Case" Jackson SF 23 6' 8" 210 lbs North Carolina
$2,807,880
41 Kosta "K2" Koufos C 29 7' 0" 245 lbs Ohio State $8,739,500
7 Skal "The Fowl Owl" Labissiere PF 22 6' 11" 235 lbs Kentucky $1,544,951
10 Frank "Free" Mason III PG 24 5' 11" 190 lbs Kansas $1,378,242
23 "Tag Poppin" Ben McLemore SG 25 6' 5" 201 lbs Kansas $5,460,000
50 Zach "Z-Bo" Randolph PF 37 6' 9" 250 lbs Michigan State $11,692,308
9 Iman "The Supermodel" Shumpert SG 28 6' 5" 215 lbs Georgia Tech $11,011,234
0 "Mr Hoosier" Troy Williams SF 23 6' 7" 218 lbs Indiana $1,512,601

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO Player POS HT WT DOB (AGE) EXP College
5 Will "The People's Champion" Barton SG 6-6 190 1/6/1991 (28) 6 Memphis
25 "Mutant" Malik Beasley SG 6-5 195 11/26/1996 (22) 2 Florida State
3 Torrey "FUCKING" Craig SF 6-7 215 12/19/1990 (28) 1 South Carolina Upstate
6 Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin PG 6-2 180 10/2/1995 (23) R Central Florida; Florida Gulf
14 "Just" Gary Harris SG 6-4 210 9/14/1994 (24) 4 Michigan State
41 Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez PF 6-9 230 9/28/1995 (23) 2 Espana
15 Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker) C 7-0 250 2/19/1995 (23) 3 Gotham
20 Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon PF 6-10 225 4/9/1996 (22) 1 Syracuse
7 Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles PF 6-10 234 11/5/1995 (23) 3 Kentucky
4 Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap PF 6-8 246 2/10/1985 (33) 12 Louisiana Tech
11 Monte "Ratio" Morris PG 6-3 175 6/27/1995 (23) 1 Iowa State
27 Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray PG 6-4 207 2/23/1997 (21) 2 Kentucky
24 Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee PF 6-11 235 3/5/1990 (28) 5 Duke
1 Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr. PF 6-10 210 6/29/1998 (20) R Missouri
0 Isaiah "Ice" Thomas PG 5-9 185 2/7/1989 (29) 7 Washington
8 Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt PF 6-9 214 4/3/1999 (19) R Kentucky
45 Thomas "Irvine" Welsh C 7-0 255 2/3/1996 (23) R UCLA

Update: MPJ is still waiting to make his Denver Nuggets debut as he rehabs from multiple back surgeries. Harris is also out with recurring leg ailments. Lydon is out with a concussion. Wow! That was short! As for the Kings, no injuries have been reported.

Re-Up: Lydon is available to play should recycling time be in the cards this evening.

Re-Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades have been made and the above roster for the opposing team is inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 57 SAC

Nikola Jokic: +18

Jamal Murray: +0

Gary Harris: N/A

Monte Morris: +13

Isaiah Thomas: +11

Paul Millsap: +26

Will Barton: +9

Mason Plumlee: +15

Malik Beasley: +10

Trey Lyles: -5

Juancho: N/A

Torrey Craig: -2

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Thomas Welsh: N/A

Brandon Goodwin: N/A

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 56 games +1288

Jamal Murray: 51 games +860

Gary Harris: 32 games +448

Monte Morris: 57 games +697

Isaiah Thomas: 1 games +11

Paul Millsap: 45 games +397

Will Barton: 18 games +153

Mason Plumlee: 57 games +471

Malik Beasley: 57 games +447

Trey Lyles: 55 games +303

Juancho: 54 games +17

Torrey Craig: 54 games -16

Jared Vanderbilt: 3 games +10

Thomas Welsh: 9 games +18

Brandon Goodwin: 16 games +28

Tyler Lydon: 21 games -2

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Nick Young: 3 games -2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +23.00

Jamal Murray: +16.86

Gary Harris: +14.00

Monte Morris: +12.23

Isaiah Thomas:+11.00

Paul Millsap: +8.82

Will Barton: +8.50

Mason Plumlee: +8.26

Malik Beasley: +7.84

Trey Lyles: +5.70

Juancho: +0.31

Torrey Craig: -0.30

Jared Vanderbilt: +3.33

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

Brandon Goodwin: +1.75

Tyler Lydon: -0.10

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Nick Young: -0.67

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

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TPM Per-Minute Splits Through Game 55:

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*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 14th iteration of the starting five, consisting of Murray, Beasley, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Kings counter with Fox, Hield, Barnes, Bjelica & WCS. Big Honey is "doin' Nikola Jokic things" early, says Marlowe as The Joker passes it to himself off the backboard for an easy two. No Kings fans, the "Rickey Davis Special" is not how Jokic has earned the 15th most triple doubles in NBA history at the age of 23. The teams have missed only one of 11 shots combined, as the Kings lead by six at the time of the first break at 8:14, on the strength of a 10-2 run. Denver has been careless with the ball which plays right into the hands of the much faster Kings. The Nuggets lose the timeout and are forced to call another after a 7-0 run increases the Kings lead to nine at 5:35. Who could come off the bench to stem the tide tonight I wonder? Hmmmmmm.

I was certain Malone would insert Craig since I was alluding to his polar opposite, IT and indeed Torrey as well as Plumlee are in there with 5:00 remaining. IT steps up to the scorers table after a vociferous ovation at 3:12, trailing by fifteen. The Nuggets do this every night it seems; allowing players to get hot from distance vs no resistance and then they start making hotly contested threes as a result. "The Zone" has got to be better accounted for by the Nuggets coaching staff. Morris is in as well so that answers the question of "will the two diminutive guards play together." Six straight points by The Anchorman and the lead is down to nine. He's the first to reach double digits for Denver. Lyles checks in with about a minute to go, allows an easy two by Yogi then scores an easy two vs Bogdan. Like sands through the hourglass, so are the days of Trey Lyles. Denver is paced in TPM by Millsap +8 as they trail 30-41 after one.

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Qtr2- The Kings are giving the Nuggets all they can handle tonight. They are also getting the benefit of the kind whistle as the aggressors. It's no wonder Sacramento leads, Giles + Bagley make six! No fair! Plumlee unwisely fouls Bogdan on a three attempt without even getting near the ball. All arm. Nikola checks in after a very long break at 9:30, trailing by 17. Get Lyles the fuck out of there Malone! Denver is just 1-7 from the floor in the second period. IT checks out at 8:01, trailing by 15 and I've gotta say, he looked good as a floor general. Lyles, or as I may start calling him "the least common denominator" is STILL out there at 6:12, trailing by 15. I think I'll go with "Denominator" for short since it sounds facetiously similar to "Dominator." It seems that Juancho (wise) and Vanderbilt (unwise) are the odd men out of the rotation. When Harris returns that HAS to mean that Craig is out of the mix so it may be time to sit Lyles and tighten up the rotation in advance. I see a lot of small ball in the Nuggets future.

Murray sticks a three and it's down to a 12 point game at 5:15. 'Sap is keeping Denver in this one on both ends and it seems that the time off with the ankle injury may have had the silver-lining-effect of allowing the pain in his broken toe to subside a bit. He looks like pre-injury-Paul these past two games. He scores another five in a row for the good guys and the lead is just seven at 3:32. Giles has three fouls for the Kings. Denver is starting to now get the benefit of the whistle as the aggressors and the lead is down to five. The Nuggets are REALLY struggling to convert layups tonight and the lead is up to nine at 1:33. Malone BLOWS THE FUCK UP and is given the hurried heave-ho by the thin-skinned official, at 1:33. Musta' uttered some Carlin words. The Kings get four free-throws out of the deal and now lead by 11. Bad timing on the T by Malone. All momentum and energy was sapped from the building. Big Honey makes two in double digits for Denver. The Nuggets are led in TPM by Millsap +16 as they trail 58-69 at the half.

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Qtr3- The Nuggets score the first four and appear to have indulged in some of Marlowe's famous orange slices at the intermission. Beasley makes three in double digits for Denver after a break-away dunk. This has been a forgettable night defensively for the visibly slowed-by-injury Murray. Fox has a way of making people look slow, but Hield does not so it's clear that Jamal is not right yet. The Nuggets cut it to four on the strength of a 7-0 run, thanks to FINALLY attacking the rim. Barton has lead by example with regard to exactly that. He makes four in double digits for Denver. Jokic is on 3D watch with 12-6-6 at the time of the first break at 7:40. The defensive rotational effort this half, particularly by Nikola and the guards is like night & day when compared to the first half. The same can be said about the chasing of rebounds and 50/50 balls. Beasley cuts it to just one at the charity stripe with 6:23 to go.

WCS earned his fourth foul in the process. Nemanja (who also earns his fourth) can not guard 'Sap down low and there is not a person in the building who doesn't realize this, most importantly, the two of them. Time for a line change as the starters for Denver look gassed. Both teams make wholesale changes in fact at 4:30, with the Kings in the lead by six. Only Big Honey remains in for the Nuggets who have suddenly gone cold, one for their last eight from the floor. Another in a long line of beautiful water polo outlet passes by Jokic to Craig, results in a dunk at 3:33. The Joker now has a 2D with 12-11-8 and his 12th 3D now seems inevitable. IT checks in for Murray at this time, trailing by four. He immediately sticks a three, cutting it to one and the canned crowd is clamoring! The Nuggets then take a two point lead on another IT3! He has eight points in the fourth period. Denver is paced in TPM by Beasley/Jokic +11 & Millsap +25 as they lead 93-91 after three.

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Qtr4- The Key for the Nuggets could be to get Sacramento into early foul trouble, both individually with the Kings starting bigs plus Giles all possessing four but more importantly, to earn the penalty to make this a bit easier. The Anchorman has an impressive 2D with 25-10. Denver leads by three after two from the line by Morris. Reading along from the Can, Giles QUICKLY fouls out at 10:13. Did we just get a "bye Felicia" from Marlowe? He must spend entirely too much time with his daughters. Monte throws down the first jam of his career after an excellent, almost Harry Giles-esque outlet pass by 'Sap, increasing the lead to five at 9:54. Sacramento, like so many visitors to The Pepsi Can, look listless in the final stanza. WCS nabs his fifth foul but to their credit, the Kings are digging deep and hanging in there, trailing by four at 7:45 as our old pal K2 checks in. Sacramento takes the lead on a completely uncontested three by Hield, as Murray and Bogdan exchange pleasantries at center court. I'm not certain that the Nuggets can afford to play Murray to close this one out the way he is getting targeted defensively. He's also the only starter for Denver who has yet to reach double figures. Beasley earns his second T, neither of which did I see him earn and he's ejected with 6:10 to go and the Kings up by one.

Musta' uttered some Carlin words. Big Honey has his 3D with 16-14-10. Barton drills a wide open three and the lead is four for the Nuggets. Millsap checks in at 3:49 so his minutes restriction is being exceeded on this night, as he's obviously needed. Denver enters the penalty with 1:10 remaining, up by six. Murray finally makes five in double digits for Denver, all of the starters. WCS steals it from Jokic and there is simply no quit in these Kings, who cut it to just two with 40 seconds to go. The Kings choose not to foul which is prudent. They get a stop on an awkward drive by Jokic and tie it up by one only slightly less so by Hield. Denver can take the final shot with 15 seconds to play in a tie game. Jokic tips one in with fractions of a second to go but I have a feeling it may get nixed by an offensive interference. It's being reviewed. Somehow it's not overturned, which I kinda disagree with but I'll take it. Eight tenths of a second are put back on the clock so it's hardly over. Keep it away from Bogdan!!!! Hield launches a spinney McGee for three and it's untrue. This one is ova! Denver is paced in TPM by Beasley +10, Thomas +11, Morris +13, Plumlee +15, Jokic +18 & Millsap +26 as they win a new-fashioned barn-burner, 120-118.

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The Nuggets Win!

Final Thoughts: I'm officially excited for the playoff prospects of this team again, with 'Sap looking to be finally healthy and IT making his presence felt so immediately. Please stop talking about how will we find minutes for IT. He's a difference maker and he plays, period! Wes Unseld Jr for NBA coach of the year. These Kings are VERY impressive and fun to watch.

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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