A bit of a Fat Albert vibe but I can dig it!

My all time favorite NBA Player.

Keepin' the seat warm for Barton.

Nuggets vs Kings: Skirmish in Sac-Town

When last these two teams squared off in game 4 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from six players led by Jamal Murray: +30. Only one player for the Nuggets, Torrey Craig: -6 was in the red for that match-up as Denver won going away, 126-112 but I assure you, it was nowhere near that close.

As for this game, the semi-resurgent Kings are surprisingly above .500 in the uber-competitive Western Conference, despite losing three of their last four contests. They are led by the burgeoning play-making ability of De'Aaron Fox, the knock-down shooting of Buddy Hield, the all-around offensive game and clutch performances of Bogdan Bogdanovic, the emerging offensive repertoire of Willie Cauley-Stein and when healthy, the sky-is-the-limit talent of rookie Marvin Bagley Jr, who had his coming out party against the Nuggets in their previous encounter. You'll notice that not much was mentioned about their D. While Bagley has definite DBBIQ qualities and athleticism to be a plus defender, he's really the tall and short of it on their roster.

Sacramento gives up 116.7 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 104.8. The Kings attempt to mitigate this disadvantage by playing at a break-neck pace (particularly at home) and they average 115.0 ppg offensively to the Nuggets 110.1. Sacramento is 10-8 at home while Denver is 9-8 on the road. The glaring team statistic in terms of differential is conference victories where the Kings are 12-15 to the Nuggets 15-6 record. Denver is also the only team in the league who are undefeated (5-0) within their division which means next to nothing aside from using it as a barometer in the strength of competition level. Denver of course leads the Western Conference standings while Sacramento is just on the periphery, looking in at an 8th seed but still 1.5 games out.

In terms of the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)

SAC: RPG 44.6 APG 25.4 SPG 8.35 BPG 4.70 FG% .469 FT% .709 3% .383

DEN: RPG 46.9 APG 27.2 SPG 8.46 BPG 4.80 FG% .464 FT% .748 3% .353

Prediction: The numbers obviously favor Denver by a healthy margin but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone. To that end I'm going to glance at the box scores from the previous three games to get an idea of what we can expect.

For the Kings, Hield has been productive offensively over the last three games but he's been an utter sieve if +- is any indication, defensively. The same appears to be true for Bogdan despite his heroics vs the Lakers three games ago. Fox has had one good shooting game sandwiched between two terrible ones but has been far better in terms of +- on whole while orchestrating the offense. I won't say this means he's playing better D than the other two without the eye test. Unlike most people, I refuse as defensive metrics (including coming to conclusions based upon +-) are still heavily flawed.

For Denver, individual consistency is simply not a thing for this squad so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/defined in the coming games.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, WCS struggled mightily to contain the juggernaut that was Nurkic last time out and he'll have a whole new set of issues WRT Jokic but at least his bread and butter which seems to be transition offense, should shine more tonight vs the plodding/plotting Joker.

Denver (lap) 111 - Kings 107. Bagley was the primary reason that the previous game was competitive and with him out tonight I predict a hard fought victory for Denver in a very difficult environment, on the road.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your eardrums.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Sacramento Kings Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
35	Marvin "Angry Paper" Bagley III	PF	19	6' 11"	234 lbs	Duke	$7,305,600
88	"The Other" Nemanja Bjelica	PF	30	6' 10"	234 lbs	Sř̩bija	$6,500,000
8	Bogdan "No Longer The Other" Bogdanovic	SG	26	6' 6"	205 lbs	Sř̩bija	$9,000,000
00	Willie "Or Wont He" Cauley-Stein	C	25	7' 0"	240 lbs	Kentucky	$4,696,875
3	Yogi "Beary" Ferrell	PG	25	6'0"	180 lbs	Indiana	$3,000,000
5	De'Aaron "Fantastic Mr" Fox	PG	20	6' 3"	175 lbs	Kentucky	$5,470,920
32	Wenyen "The Angel" Gabriel	F	21	6' 9"	205 lbs	Kentucky	G-Money
20	Harry "Styles" Giles	PF	20	6' 10"	240 lbs	Duke	$2,207,040
24	"He Got A Boo-Boo" Buddy Hield	SG	24	6' 4"	214 lbs	Oklahoma	$3,844,760
25	Justin "Case" Jackson	SF	23	6' 8"	210 lbs	North Carolina	$2,807,880
41	Kosta "K2" Koufos	C	29	7' 0"	245 lbs	Ohio State	$8,739,500
7	Skal "The Fowl Owl" Labissiere	PF	22	6' 11"	235 lbs	Kentucky	$1,544,951
10	Frank "Free" Mason III	PG	24	5' 11"	190 lbs	Kansas	$1,378,242
23	"Tag Poppin" Ben McLemore	SG	25	6' 5"	201 lbs	Kansas	$5,460,000
50	Zach "Z-Bo" Randolph	PF	37	6' 9"	250 lbs	Michigan State	$11,692,308
9	Iman "The Supermodel" Shumpert	SG	28	6' 5"	215 lbs	Georgia Tech	$11,011,234
0	"Mr Hoosier" Troy Williams	SF	23	6' 7"	218 lbs	Indiana	$1,512,601

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	27	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$11,830,358
25	"Mutant" Malik Beasley	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$1,773,840
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	27	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
2	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	23	6' 2"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	24	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$16,517,857
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	23	6' 9"	230 lbs	Espana	$2,166,360
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	23	7' 0"	250 lbs	Gotham	$24,605,181
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	22	6' 10"	225 lbs	Syracuse	$1,874,640
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	23	6' 10"	234 lbs	Kentucky	$3,364,249
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	33	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$29,230,769
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	23	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,349,383
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	21	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$3,499,800
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	28	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$12,917,808
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	20	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$2,894,160
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	29	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,512,601
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	19	6' 9"	214 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	22	7' 0"	255 lbs	UCLA	G-Money

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Barton had successful surgery on his abductor/hip and is week to week (whatever that means.) As for SAC, Bagley is out with a knee injury

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Data:

TPM™ Game 36 SAC

Jamal Murray: +25

Isaiah Thomas: Injured

Monte Morris: -4

Brandon Goodwin: N/A

Gary Harris: +7

Malik Beasley: -3

Torrey Craig: +2

Will Barton: Injured

Juancho Hernangomez: -3

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: Injured

Paul Millsap: +11

Trey Lyles: +2

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +13

Mason Plumlee: +10

Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 36 games +645

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 36 games +435

Brandon Goodwin: 4 games +17

Nick Young: 3 games -2

Gary Harris: 23 games +332

Malik Beasley: 36 games +219

Torrey Craig: 31 games +19

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 2 games +33

Juancho Hernangomez: 35 games +40

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 28 games +270

Trey Lyles: 36 games +201

Tyler Lydon: 11 games +8

Nikola Jokic: 36 games +740

Mason Plumlee: 36 games +249

Thomas Welsh: 8 games +17

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +17.92

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +12.08

Brandon Goodwin: +4.25

Nick Young: -0.67

Gary Harris: +14.43

Malik Beasley: +6.08

Torrey Craig: +0.61

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +16.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +1.14

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +9.64

Trey Lyles: 5.58

Tyler Lydon: +0.73

Nikola Jokic: +20.55

Mason Plumlee: +6.92

Thomas Welsh: +2.13

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 35:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets trot out their 7th iteration of the injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Craig, Juancho, Plumlee & Jokic. The Kings counter with Fox, Hield, Shumpert, Bjelica & WCS. Two possessions - two turnovers for the Nuggets but its still scoreless at 11:00. Denver is ice-cold and they trail by three at 9:09. Jokic is 0-3 from beyond the arc (all wide open shots) thus-far and they trail by five at 8:21. I bought this new eraser because... purple, but it's garbage... like Dinger. Both teams are getting out in transition now as Denver leads by two on the strength of a 10-3 run at 6:51. Plumlee is stuffing the stat sheet in what will most likely be his last start (hopefully of the season, meaning 'Sap is healthy) with an early line of 5-4-2. Jokic FINALLY draws a foul on a shot attempt, something that never seems to happen as the officials have an axe to grind with him due to his demonstrative lobbying. Can Denver weather the Bjelica barrage?

The Nuggets trail by one at 5:42 as Harris and Millsap are first off the pine. They really should have started tonight IMHO and Malone has the 3rd period to atone for that sin. Harris immediately drills two straight from downtown. Murray looks extremely tentative tonight. Jokic goes coast to coast for the jam, he uttered for the first and likely final time of The Joker's career. Nikola is the first to reach double figures in scoring as a result. Monte checks in at 3:07, trailing by two. 'Sap is still cold from the charity stripe as he makes 1-2 and cuts the Sacramento lead to one at 2:45. Lyles checks in and proceeds to brick another three. Beasley is finally in at 1:42, trailing by three. A strong drive by the good-as-new Harris results in a three point play and the Nuggets trail by two with under a minute to go. Lyles ties it up on two from the line after a phantom call on the Kings. Denver is paced in TPM by Harris/Plumlee +6 as they are tied at 30 after one.

Qtr2- I just have a feeling I'm going to be saying something about K2 here. Not so as I'm instead commenting that Giles actually looks like an NBA player for a change... an extremely light one but a baller nonetheless. Are we certain that the two Bogdanovic players from Sř̩bija pronounce their last name differently Marlowe? Six straight for Bog-DAWN-ovic and the Kings lead by that margin at 10:39. 'Sap hits 2-2 at the line which is obviously a welcome sight. More of that please and thank you. Sacramento leads by seven and Morris is safe to regard as slumping after his last few games, both in terms of shooting and in acquiring the once rare turnover. Denver has drawn more charging fouls tonight (three) than their combined total on the season. The Nuggets are struggling with Big Honey on the bench and they trail by six at 7:20. Harris makes two in double figures at 7:10, trailing by eight.

Jokic is in for the highly ineffective Lyles at 6:30, trailing by 10. He immediately sticks a three. Murray still has yet to score and I don't think he's even attempted a jumper yet for some reason. The Kings still lead by ten at 4:20 (smoke 'em if you got 'em.) Denver cuts it to seven on a transition dunk by Beasley and this is something the coaches need to mention at halftime; Sacramento is failing to get back defensively. The Kings are making their share of uncontested shots but the amount of contested threes made is unsustainable. The lead balloons to 14 in under a minute's time, at 1:50. Murray finally shoots a non-layup, this shot of the technical foul variety, which of course he misses. What is up with Jamal tonight? Denver has their work cut out for them tonight. Murray FINALLY scores with 36 seconds remaining, from the line. Denver is paced in TPM by Plumlee/Millsap/Jokic +7 as they trail 66-53 at the half.

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Qtr3- "Halftime is all about adjustments and oranges" says Marlowe. Jokic adjusts his strategy by earning his first assist on an alley-oop to Mason. The Kings' lead is 12 at 10:15. B2B threes and two from the stripe by the suddenly involved Murray and the lead is down to seven at 9:35, on the strength of an eight to nothing run by Murray. The officials are making their presence felt for some reason and calling a very tight game. Juancho to Jokic for a three and it's down to a four point lead on the strength of an 11-0 run by the Nuggets. Whomever was team-mom at halftime deserves a game ball! My guess is it was Ma' Beasley (conjecture.) Sacramento is FINALLY not making every contested shot they take. Murray cuts it to two with a J at 7:35 and he makes three in double figures. Juancho joins the party with a tasty left handed jam. Murray cuts it to one on a give & go jam from Big Honey.

WCS is taking and missing shots nearly every time down (there's a low-hanging-fruit Bird Box joke in there but fuck memery) but Denver is failing to capitalize on the other end, so it remains a one point lead for the Kings. Jamal tips in his own miss and gives the Nuggets the lead at 2:18. He now has 17 of his 19 points in the 3rd period alone, as Marlowe calls back to the orange slice bit. For the second time in a week I'm forced to root for the Warriors tonight despite the ramifications it presents to the Nuggets standings (the Lakers game being the other) as they square off with and are currently demolishing professional free thrower James harden and the Rockets, 70-53 at the moment. It's even-Steven with 1:31 remaining. Craig nabs two straight offensive rebounds and the Nuggets have a three point lead after Monte buries one from distance. The good guys stumble towards the finish line and allow Sacramento to even it up with a late push. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +10 & Plumlee +13 as they are all knotted up at 84 after three.

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Qtr4- The scoring commences in the fourth with a three by Murray. It is alarming how many tentative shots at the rim the Kings have taken and missed in the second half, when you consider the Nuggets lack of rim protection. They genuinely only look comfortable when shooting threes. Murray appears to have once again hurt his leg and he's snarling at the camera. Say what you will about his inconsistency as a shooter but he is consistently a warrior. Giles fouls Mason hard and immediately hurries to help him up; the NBA needs far more of that sort of display of sportsmanship. It earns him an intentional foul one which is the correct call but it's still the correct response on his part. Denver leads by five after Mason goes 1-2 from the charity stripe. Marlowe perks Hastings up with a Yogi Bear joke. The Blue Arrow is starting to garner the double team now. A three by Nemanja cuts it to one as the Nuggets have missed five straight shots before HBP drills one from distance for Denver. Harris makes five in double figures, Plumlee has a 2D with a line of 10-10-4 & the Nuggets lead by six with 7:06 to play. Jokic also has a 2D with a line of 24-12-5 and the Nuggets lead by ten at 5:45!

The crowd is starting to stir and Denver must be careful not to relinquish the momentum following a bad-bounce three by Hield that cuts it to five, at 4:25. The refs are now refusing to blow the very same whistles they couldn't keep quiet earlier in the half. The Nuggets lead by three with 1:40 remaining. Fox makes a miracle three point play and the crowd is enthusiastic at 1:06, prior to a dagger three by Murray on a step-back J. Denver leads by three with under a minute to go after another Fox jumper. Murray, not to be outdone makes his own miraculous three point play. Check that it's a FOUR point play for Jamal and he has 33 second half points, after missing the free-throw. That should do it. Not true as Bogdan exhibits his flair for the dramatic and hits one from 40 feet, making it a three point game with 25 seconds to go. Hield strangles Murray on the inbound, who once again goes 1-2 from the line! Bogdan NEARLY makes another 40 footer but Harris gets the board and this baby is ova! Denver is paced in TPM by Plumlee +10, Millsap +11, Jokic +13 & Murray +25 as they come back from a huge deficit on the road, to pull out a fantastic victory with a final sore of 117-113.
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Final Thoughts: The Nuggets surprised me for the first time in a while. I really thought their goose was cooked at the half but damned if those weren't some seriously PED laced orange slices! Denver is now 25-11, the best start in franchise history and they are only now starting to get healthy. Beware!

What is up with Jamal tonight?

-Me at the tail end of the second quarter analysis segment and since I publish them after each quarter, clearly he read it at halftime.

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The Nuggets Win!

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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