The good guys

Their adversaries

Nuggets vs Knicks I: " Paging Mr Honey... Mr Big Honey"

• Data only today due to the early start.

When last these two teams squared off in game 71 of last season the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from eight players led by Nikola Jokic: +20 . Two players for Denver were in the red for that match-up led by Juancho: -3 as the Nuggets cruised to victory, by a score of 111-93 in New York.

In that game, Nikola Jokic had 21 points and 17 rebounds, Jamal Murray scored 18 points & Gary Harris chipped in 14 points for Denver, which moved into a tie with the Warriors for first place in the Western Conference with 11 games remaining for each team. Will Barton scored 10 of his 12 in the opening quarter as the Nuggets jumped out to a 37-18 lead. The Knicks made it a close game late in the third quarter, cutting the lead to seven after trailing by 14 at halftime. Former Nuggets first-round pick Emmanuel Mudiay had 21 points and rookie Mitchell Robinson added 16 points and 10 rebounds for the Knicks. Denver swept the season series from the Knicks. The Nuggets have beaten New York in 16 of their last 21 meetings. Denver out-rebounded the Knicks 62-45.

(The previous section comes with contributive information and quotes from ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, Denver is coming off of their worst two game stretch of the season; an embarrassing loss in Sacramento followed by a close defeat at home vs the Western Conference leading Lakers. It's become apparent with a large enough sample that the Nuggets are a low-end playoff team without any contribution from their Serbian star center but they could be contenders if they could just get him to take interest in playing basketball again. I'm not going to speculate as to what exactly is going on with him but clearly, something is bothering him. I don't put a ton of stock in early season, disembodied numbers but it's clear in watching him that he's simply not enjoying himself.

The Knicks are currently in full-on tank mode, dueling with Golden State for high-lottery position. They have three to five possible, eventual building blocks, namely Barrett, Robinson and Knox but all three have to make major leaps in order to natch their potential, something they've all failed to do as of yet. Barrett is the most intriguing as his shooting percentages are bound to improve with experience.


This will be the first team Denver has faced this season, which scores fewer PPG than them This is really a sad realization when you consider all of the offensive talent the Nuggets have which is seemingly going to waste due to lack of remaining energy in prioritizing defensive effort.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• NY gives up 110.4 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 101.9

• NY averages 100.9 PPG offensively to Denver's 106.1
  

• This results in a net rating for NY of -9.5 and +4.2 for Denver

• NY is 3-8 from home while Denver is 5-2 away from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, NY is 2-14 to Denver's 7-4 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver is 3d in the Western Conference standings, 4 games behind the Lakers, while NY currently resides in last place in the Eastern Conference, 14.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

NY: RPG 44.7 APG 19.6 SPG 7.8 BPG 4.6 FG% 42.2 3% 36.3 FT% 67.4

DEN: RPG 46.9 APG 25.9 SPG 8.0 BPG 5.0 FG% 44.5 3% 34.5 FT% 74.5

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, this is a match-up of a very good team that is severely under-performing and a very bad team that is performing exactly as expected. It's precisely the type of game that the Nuggets traditionally fail to get up for.

I do hope that at some point Malone starts going with shorter shifts for the players with increased staggering of the rotation so that they can afford to be max energy players on both ends without sacrificing balance and execution. I'd love to see, for example, Grant/Juancho sub in for Millsap/Barton at around the 4:30-5 minute mark, followed by Beasley/Morris for Harris/Barton at around the 6-6:30 mark and finally Morris/Plumlee in for Murray/Jokic at about the 7:30-8 minute mark of the first period.

I'm of the opinion that Plumlee in particular is playing far too many minutes to be at his best and they'd be best off playing him closer to ten minutes a game and beginning to deploy Grant more as a small-ball five. Not only does Plumlee clog up the lane offensively, preventing movement but the second unit far too frequently defers to him and running the offense through him just doesn't make much sense given his limitations. Also his propensity for fouling often limits his aggressiveness so playing him for a shorter expected run at the end of the first and third periods, would serve to allow him to go all out on both ends.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 119 - NY 99

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

(leaving this up despite the expert tank-job being exhibited by the Warriors. Clearly Dallas is now a playoff team.)

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Coach: Michael "Post" Malone

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Will "The People's Champion" Barton 5	SG	28	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$12,776,786
	"Mutant" Malik Beasley 25	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$2,731,714
	Bol "Bilbo Baggins" Bol 10	C	19	7' 2"	220 lbs	Oregon	--
	Vlatko "Slovenian Cyborg" Cancar 31	SF	22	6' 8"	210 lbs	Slovenia	$898,310
	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig 3	SF	28	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
	PJ "Bol" Dozier 35	PG	22	6' 6"	205 lbs	South Carolina	--
	Jerami "The Co-Host" Grant 9	SF	25	6' 9"	220 lbs	Syracuse	$9,346,153
	"Just" Gary Harris 14	SG	25	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$17,839,286
	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez 41	PF	24	6' 9"	230 lbs	España	$3,321,030
	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA Joker) 15	C	24	7' 0"	250 lbs	Sř̩bija	$27,504,630
	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap 4	PF	34	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$30,350,000
	Monte "Ratio" Morris 11	PG	24	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,588,231
	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray 27	PG	22	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$4,444,746
	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee 24	PF	29	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$14,041,096
	Michael "Half Man / Other Half, Also Man... Basically, All Man" Porter Jr. 1	PF	21	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$3,389,400

New York Knicks Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Kadeem "Abdul Jabad" Allen 0	SG	26	6' 1"	200 lbs	Arizona	--
	RJ "Syd" Barrett 9	SF	19	6' 6"	214 lbs	Duke	$7,839,960
	Ignas "Gesundheit" Brazdeikis 17	SF	20	6' 6"	221 lbs	Michigan	$898,310
	Reggie "Jim J" Bullock 25	SG	28	6' 6"	205 lbs	North Carolina	$4,000,000
	Damyean "Sp? #5" Dotson 21	SG	25	6' 5"	210 lbs	Houston	$1,618,520
	Wayne "Duke" Ellington 2	SG	32	6' 4"	207 lbs	North Carolina	$8,000,000
	Taj "Garage" Gibson 67	PF	34	6' 9"	232 lbs	USC	$9,000,000
	Kevin "Fort" Knox II 20	SF	20	6' 7"	215 lbs	Kentucky	$4,380,120
	"Mad Man" Marcus Morris Sr. 13	SF	30	6' 8"	218 lbs	Kansas	$15,000,000
	Frank "The Ballerina" Ntilikina 11	PG	21	6' 4"	200 lbs	--	$4,855,800
	Elfrid "Hair" Payton 6	PG	25	6' 3"	195 lbs	Louisiana-Lafayette	$8,000,000
	Bobby "Clinton" Portis 1	PF	24	6' 10"	250 lbs	Arkansas	$15,000,000
	Ivan "The Terrible" Rabb 10	PF	22	6' 10"	220 lbs	California	$1,618,520
	"Orange" Julius Randle 30	PF	25	6' 8"	250 lbs	Kentucky	$18,000,000
	Mitchell "Mr." Robinson 23	C	21	7' 0"	240 lbs	Western Kentucky	$1,599,712
	"Hard Hitting" Dennis Smith Jr. 5	PG	22	6' 2"	205 lbs	North Carolina State	$4,463,640
	Allonzo "Sp? #6" Trier 14	SG	23	6' 4"	200 lbs	Arizona	$3,551,000

Update: Cancar has been assigned to the G-league affiliate for the Hawks. Bol and Dozier are on G-League assignment with the Bulls affiliate. Vanderbilt meanwhile, was assigned to the Rio Grande Valley Vipers and I don't care what anyone says, I want them to be playing on the same G-League team, under command of the Denver Nuggets where they can be deployed as best fit and can begin to build chemistry together. As for NY, Payton, Morris and Ntilikina are all GTD's with Hammy/Neck/Back injuries respectively, while Bullock is out with a back injury of his own.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game19 NY (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +17

Jamal Murray: +23

Gary Harris: +7

Paul Millsap: +7

Will Barton: +16

Monte Morris: +33

Malik Beasley: +15

Torrey Craig: -4

Jerami Grant: +18

Mason Plumlee: +18

Michael Porter Jr.: +7

Juancho Hernangomez: +9

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 19 games +397

Jamal Murray : 19 games +409

Gary Harris: 19 games +210

Paul Millsap: 19 games +207

Will Barton: 17 games +213

Monte Morris: 19 games +198

Malik Beasley: 15 games +76

Torrey Craig: 13 games +7

Jerami Grant: 19 games +163

Mason Plumlee: 19 games +99

Michael Porter Jr.: 11 games +29

Juancho Hernangomez: 12 games +28

Jared Vanderbilt: 3 games +7

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 1 games -3

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +20.89

Jamal Murray: +21.53

Gary Harris: +11.05

Paul Millsap: +10.89

Will Barton: +12.53

Monte Morris: +10.42

Malik Beasley: +5.07

Torrey Craig: +0.54

Jerami Grant: +8.58

Mason Plumlee: +5.21

Michael Porter Jr.: +2.64

Juancho Hernangomez: +2.33

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0.33

Bol Bol: 0 games N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games -3.00

PJ Dozier: 0 games N/A

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 16:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Knicks counter with Smith, Barrett, Knox, Gibson & Randle. Jokic still appears to be in his fog as the game commences in earnest. Jokic and Morris are exchanging shoves at the 8:02 mark. Maybe that lights a fire under The Joker. NY leads by two at the time of the first break, 6:41. He's starting to play with aggression in the post and it's resulting in either points for Nikola or easy three's by his team mates. So easy! Grant is first in for the good guys off the bench at 3:45, trailing by one. Juancho/Morris are next in with 3:00 remaining, trailing by four. Plumlee enters along with Beasley at 1:54 and the second team is in tact, trailing by three. Juancho if hot from distance and the Nuggets get out to a five point lead with under a minute to go.

Denver is paced in TPM by Juancho Hernangomez: +7 as they lead 33-27 after one.

Nikola Jokic: +5 Jamal Murray: +4 Gary Harris: +6 Paul Millsap: -3 Will Barton: +8 Monte Morris: +4 Malik Beasley: +3 Torrey Craig: N/A Jerami Grant: +6 Mason Plumlee: +7 Michael Porter Jr.: N/A Juancho Hernangomez: +7

Qtr2- The second unit is functioning better than usual on offense but are refusing to guard anyone as the nuggets lead by four at 9:25. Knox rejects Juancho in transition and then drills a three on the other end and the lead is four at 7:30. B2B threes for Juancho and Beasley and the lead balloons to ten just like that, at 7:02. All Nuggets players to see action have scored except for Millsap and they lead by eight at 5:54, as the starters continue to rest. Beasley and Juancho have provided the offensive spark tonight that's been absent from the second unit all season.

Everybody eats when they come to the Big Apple. The starters begin filtering in at 5:10, leading by 10. Five straight for Millsap and the lead is up to 17 at 3:22. Beasley is en fuego and he's first to reach double digits for Denver at 2:29, despite having a three negated by a shot clock review. It really feels like Nikola is remembering how much easier it is to find open teammates when he's attacking in the paint. It's all Denver and the lead is 23 with under a minute remaining. Jokic is currently sporting a diabolic 6/6/6 line. Murray makes two in double digits for Denver.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +17 as they lead 67-45 at the half.

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Qtr3- The Nuggets have their big lead of 23, following a three by Harris and I predict a Nuggets victory. Barton makes three in double digits for Denver. Millsap joins them in short order and the lead is 22 at 7:45. Big Honey is on 3D watch with 6/9/8 though it's doubtful that he plays in the fourth period, as the lead is up to 27 at 6:26. The Nuggets are 14-23 from beyond the arc tonight which IIRC is their best showing since game one vs Portland. The second unit begins to filter in at the 3 minute mark as Denver leads by 21. They are in tact at 2:25, leading now by 23. The lead is back up to 26 with under a minute remaining, following an &-1 by Grant.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +23 as they lead 98-75 after three.

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Qtr4- The starters are most likely done for the night as the Nuggets lead 100-76 with 10:52 to play. Denver is 17-27 from downtown. Outstanding! Monte/Jerami make five/six in double digits for Denver. This would be an excellent time for Malone to get MPJ in there for some extended burn, leading by 30 at 10:02. The problem is that this second unit ALSO needs to see extended success for a change. The lead is up to 34 at 8:12. Juancho/Plumlee make seven/eight in double digits for Denver. Malik misses from the charity stripe for the first time this season but they still lead by 35 at 8:03 and I'm going to sit back and enjoy the rest of this one. I'll comment only if something extraordinary occurs, such as a converted jump shot by the Knicks. MPJ sticks his first career three! And his second!

Denver is paced in TPM by Monte Morris: +33 as they win in convincing fashion, by a final score of 129-92.

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Final Thoughts:

• More of this!
  

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THE NUGGETS WIN!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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