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Nuggets vs Lakers I: "The quest for best in the West."

• Data only today due to the early start.

When last these two teams squared off in game 64 of last season the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from five players led by Gary Harris: +21.Two players for Denver were in the red for that match-up led by Torrey Craig: -5 as the Nuggets were trending in Tinseltown, by a final score of 115-99

In that game, Will Barton scored 23 points, Gary Harris added 19 and the Nuggets snapped their three-game losing streak. James scored 31 points and surpassed Michael Jordan's 32,292 career points on a driving layup during the second quarter, moving him into fourth place on the all time scoring list. Jamal Murray scored 19 points and Jokic had 12 points, 17 rebounds and eight assists for the Nuggets, who had lost four straight to the Lakers on the road despite their growth into an elite NBA team during that time period.

(The previous section comes with contributive information and quotes from ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, Denver is coming off an embarrassing loss in Sacramento, where their two best players (Jokic/Murray) decided to all but refuse to participate in the second half. The Lakers are coming off of a home loss to the Mavs and these two teams see themselves perched atop the Western Conference standings, as they ready for battle. The Lakers get tertiary contribution from Rondo and Kuzma but they are basically a two man team. Unfortunately for Denver, those two men are James and Davis. Kuzma and Davis are both questionable for this one. If either sit, I can't envision the Lakers having enough substantive contribution to compliment LeBron, in order to win in the Mile High City, against the depth of Denver.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• LAL gives up 104.1 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 101.8

• LAL averages 112.2 PPG offensively to Denver's106.7
  

• This results in a net rating for LAL of +8.1 and +4.9 for Denver

• LAL is 8-1 away from home while Denver is 8-2 from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, LAL is 12-2 to Denver's 7-3 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver of course is 2nd in the Western Conference standings, 0 games ahead of the Clippers (though with two fewer losses) and2.5 behind the Lakers, while LAL currently resides in 1st place in the Western Conference, 0 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

LAL: RPG 44.9 APG 26.6 SPG 8.5 BPG 7.3 FG% 48.2 % 3% 35.8 FT% 74.7

DEN: RPG 47.6 APG 25.9 SPG 7.9 BPG 5.1 FG% 44.7 % 3% 35.3 FT% 73.6

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, this is a big game, in as much as an early season game can be. Denver gets up for big games. It's the Atlanta's and Sacramento's of the league that they have to worry about. I expect Denver to be looking to take out their hurt feelings on the Lakers but that is of course something that AD and LeBron will have some say in. On paper, Denver should take advantage of the lack of depth fielded by LA but the second unit for Denver, while chalked full of quality NBA athletes, have yet to gel. I'd love to see some extended minutes for Grant (if he's well enough to play) at the five. Plumlee is a highly likable player but he just doesn't appear to fit with the second unit as currently being deployed. Far too often the better scorers differ to Plumlee operating out of the post and the offense becomes stagnant, while defensively, they are often at a disadvantage after switches, due to the size/mobility discrepancy between the Nuggets guards (Morris/Beasley) when compared to Mason/Juancho. Playing Grant more at the five enables the Nuggets to leave one or two of any of the starters out there (as nearly all NBA teams do) at all times and should serve to de-clog the offensive lane and make the defensive scheme more fluid.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 101 - LAL 97

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

(leaving this up despite the expert tank-job being exhibited by the Warriors. Clearly Dallas is now a playoff team.)

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Coach: Michael "Post" Malone

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Will "The People's Champion" Barton 5	SG	28	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$12,776,786
	"Mutant" Malik Beasley 25	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$2,731,714
	Bol "Bilbo Baggins" Bol 10	C	19	7' 2"	220 lbs	Oregon	--
	Vlatko "Slovenian Cyborg" Cancar 31	SF	22	6' 8"	210 lbs	Slovenia	$898,310
	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig 3	SF	28	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
	PJ "Bol" Dozier 35	PG	22	6' 6"	205 lbs	South Carolina	--
	Jerami "The Co-Host" Grant 9	SF	25	6' 9"	220 lbs	Syracuse	$9,346,153
	"Just" Gary Harris 14	SG	25	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$17,839,286
	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez 41	PF	24	6' 9"	230 lbs	España	$3,321,030
	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA Joker) 15	C	24	7' 0"	250 lbs	Sř̩bija	$27,504,630
	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap 4	PF	34	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$30,350,000
	Monte "Ratio" Morris 11	PG	24	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,588,231
	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray 27	PG	22	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$4,444,746
	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee 24	PF	29	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$14,041,096
	Michael "Half Man / Other Half, Also Man... Basically, All Man" Porter Jr. 1	PF	21	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$3,389,400

LA Lakers Roster

	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Kostas "The Freaky Deeky Greeky" Antetokounmpo 37	PF	22	6' 10"	200 lbs	Dayton	--
	Avery "Bill" Bradley 11	PG	29	6' 3"	180 lbs	Texas	$4,767,000
	"Pontiff" Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 1	SG	26	6' 5"	204 lbs	Georgia	$8,089,282
	"Mega-Star" Alex Caruso 4	SG	25	6' 5"	186 lbs	Texas A&M	$2,750,000
	Quinn "Can" Cook 2	PG	26	6' 1"	180 lbs	Duke	$3,000,000
	DeMarcus "Boogie" Cousins 15	C	29	6' 10"	270 lbs	Kentucky	$3,500,000
	Troy "The Horse" Daniels 30	SG	28	6' 4"	200 lbs	Virginia Commonwealth	$1,620,564
	Anthony "The Brow" Davis 3	PF	26	6' 10"	253 lbs	Kentucky	$27,093,018
	Jared "West Coast" Dudley 10	SF	34	6' 6"	237 lbs	Boston College	$1,620,564
	?Manly" Danny Green 14	SG	32	6' 6"	215 lbs	North Carolina	$14,634,146
	Talen Horton-Tucker "Who?" 5	SG	19	6' 4"	234 lbs	Iowa State	$898,310
	Dwight "Also Pierre" Howard 39	C	33	6' 10"	265 lbs	--	$1,620,564
	LeBron "King" James 23	SF	34	6' 9"	250 lbs	--	$37,436,858
	Kyle "Kardashian" Kuzma 0	PF	24	6' 8"	221 lbs	Utah	$1,974,600
	JaVale "Pierre" McGee 7	C	31	7' 0"	270 lbs	Nevada	$4,000,000
	Zach "Deborah" Norvell Jr. 21	SG	21	6' 5"	205 lbs	Gonzaga	--
	Rajon "Row Row Row Your Boat" Rondo 9	PG	33	6' 1"	190 lbs	Kentucky	$2,564,753

Update: Bol is on the active roster but not dressing out. Cancar has been assigned to the G-league affiliate for the Hawks. Dozier is on G-League assignment with the Bulls affiliate. Vanderbilt meanwhile, was assigned to the Rio Grande Valley Vipers and I don't care what anyone says, I want them to be playing on the same G-League team, under command of the Denver Nuggets where they can be deployed as best fit and can begin to build chemistry together. Grant is questionable due to illness. As for the Lakers, Kuzma and Davis are game time decisions with ankle and shoulder injuries, respectively, Bradley is out with a lower leg injury and Cousins is likely out until the playoffs with a knee injury.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 18 LAL (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +8

Jamal Murray: +25

Gary Harris: +5

Paul Millsap: +17

Will Barton: +0

Monte Morris: +6

Malik Beasley: +2

Torrey Craig: N/A

Jerami Grant: +3

Mason Plumlee: +6

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Juancho Hernangomez: +4

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 18 games +380

Jamal Murray : 18 games +386

Gary Harris: 18 games +203

Paul Millsap: 18 games +200

Will Barton: 16 games +197

Monte Morris: 18 games +165

Malik Beasley: 14 games +61

Torrey Craig: 12 games +11

Jerami Grant: 18 games +145

Mason Plumlee: 18 games +81

Michael Porter Jr.: 10 games +22

Juancho Hernangomez: 11 games +19

Jared Vanderbilt: 3 games +7

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 1 games -3

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +21.11

Jamal Murray: +21.44

Gary Harris: +11.28

Paul Millsap: +11.11

Will Barton: +12.31

Monte Morris: +9.17

Malik Beasley: +4.36

Torrey Craig: +0.85

Jerami Grant: +8.06

Mason Plumlee: +4.50

Michael Porter Jr.: +2.20

Juancho Hernangomez: +1.73

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0.33

Bol Bol: 0 games N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games -3.00

PJ Dozier: 0 games N/A

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 16:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Lakers counter with KCP, Green, James, Davis & McGee. The Nuggets are trotting out in their new black skyline jerseys for the first time. They may be my all time favorite Nuggets jerseys. Jokic is sporting his Eric Montross look, fresh from the barber. James is focused early and the Lakers lead by three at 9:29. They advance the lead to six at the time of the first break, 7:25. Denver appears to be playing a little tight in the early going, as they try to figure out the spacing vs this extremely long LA squad.

The Nuggets have yet to secure a single rebound. Lebron is 5-5 thus-far and the Lakers lead by seven at 5:48. B2B buckets for Murray at the rim and the lead is down to three for LA. All five starters have scored for the good guys and the lead is still three at the time of the second break, 3:43. Juancho/Grant are in for the Nuggets at this time. Daniels drills a duo from distance and the LA lead is now nine. Plumlee/Beasley enter at 1:48, trailing by seven. The two teams exchange threes and the Lakers wind up leading by four at the end of the first period.

Denver is paced in TPM by Paul Millsap: +5 as they trail 24-28 after one.

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Qtr2- The Lakers open on a 6-2 run and Malone calls an early timeout at 10:56, trailing by eight. All 10 Nuggets players to see action tonight have scored and they cut it to four at 9:19. The referees are starting to feel themselves, calling numerous ticky-tac fouls in the second period. Denver gets their first paint-three of the night and they cut it to two at 7:07, as the crowd finally has something to get riled up about. Denver's bench has come to play on the offensive end, fortunately. Grant secures the Nuggets FIRST offensive board of the night at 6:15. Unbelievable, that. The starters enter for Denver at 5:44, trailing by six.

Jokic has one point/one board thus-far on just two shot attempts. The Nuggets have got to find a way to get him the ball in the post. La is in the penalty at 3:37, now leading by 10. Barton is missing some wide open looks from three tonight. Howard just shot one! What the fuck was that? Millsap is T-ed up following a blatant flop by Rondo that the ref bought. LA has their big lead of 12 at 1:11. AD/LeBron have combined to commit just one foul so far. Murray is the first player to reach double digits for Denver and the lead is 12 with under a minute to go. Jokic finishes the half with a paltry line of 3/1/5 with three turnovers, on just three FG attempts.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +10 as they trail 49-60 at the half.

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Qtr3- The coaching staff had better be relentlessly attempting to convince Big Honey that it's December 15th in the locker room, or this baby is a wrap. LA doubled up the Nuggets on the boards in the first half. 32-16. Barton FINALLY connects from beyond the arc. Millsap FINALLY earns a foul against, on an &-1 drive and the lead is cut to five at 9:12. Denver is starting to execute in the half court which has in turn spurred better defensive effort in rotations, as they cut it to two on a paint three by Harris, at 8:36, on the strength on an extended 15-4 run. Denver ties it up on a fast break conversion following a steal by 'Sap and the Nuggets have all the momentum. Two straight ill-advised threes by Barton/Murray, followed by an advised three by Green and LA retakes the lead at 6:45. Millsap makes two in double digits for Denver at 6:01. Pierre is ticketed for a T for complaining about a foul call. He had a gripe but he's been grabbing arms on every board, so turnabout is fair play.

The lead for LA is two at 5:16 after two at the charity stripe for The Joker. Denver takes the one point lead on a three by 'Sap and the canned crowd erupts. Seven straight points by AD/Lebron and the lead is now six for LA at 3:36. Beasley/Grant check in at this point. How many wide open threes have the Nuggets missed tonight? Plumlee/Juancho enter at 2:31, trailing by four. Only Murray remains in for the starters. Unpopular opinion outside of LA: Caruso is a decent player but if he was black no one would know who he was, as was the case before this year. That's the sad state of affairs in Trump's America, I'm afraid. AD gets a call on Plumlee of the phantom variety and Malone challenges it. It will be unlikely to be reversed, due to the ego/brotherhood of officials but it should have never been called a foul to begin with. True enough as it turns out; the exceedingly bad call stands. The officiating has been... suspect, tonight. The lead for LA is eight with 1:13 remaining.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +17 as they trail 76-84 after three.

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Qtr4- Show some pride here Nuggets! This one could very well come down to effort, particularly in the area of rebounding. Morris enters for Murray and the second unit is in tact to open the fourth period. Everyone but Plumlee is standing still at the arc; Mason is standing still in the paint. Caruso is a hacker. Barton checks in early for Malik at 1:21, trailing by 10. Plumlee and Howard have both shot threes tonight. WTF?!?! Caruso has five fouls in 12 minutes of action. LA has three team fouls at 9:33 and it's now crucial to attack in the paint. They do exactly that and Plumlee cuts it to six on an alley-oop jam from Barton. Plumlee has his 5th foul and Big Honey enters to replace Mason. When 'Sap checks in I'd like Grant to remain in, and Juancho to sit. Denver is now racking up the fouls and LA will be in the bonus with the Nuggets next foul, leading by eight at 8:04. 'Sap and Harris enter but it is Monte who remains in, not Grant. Both teams will now be in the penalty with the next foul, as LA leads by eight with 6:58 remaining. Murray enters and the starting five for the Nuggets is in tact, at this time. Attack, attack, attack! All ten Nuggets players have registered at least four points.

LA is in the bonus but they are pretty much forced to play either Howard or Pierre (notably bad free throw shooters) the rest of the way so that's something to watch. Howard makes 1-4 at the line and the lead for LA is seven at 5:07. Denver joins the Lakers in the bonus at 4:46, trailing by five. AD has shifted to center to close it out and The Joker NEEDS to go at him. Jokic cuts it to three on a give & go from Murray in the two man game and the crowd is once again enthused, at 4:11. Nikola makes three in double digits for Denver. Rocky completes the reception from PFM this time; A good omen? NBA superstar Caruso, enters to close it out rather than Rondo, with five fouls, at 3:15 and leading by five. LeBron shoves Jokic out of bounds and The Joker calmly sinks two at the line, cutting it to one at 2:23. Ticky-takiest of ticky-tak calls goes against Jokic on the other end, sending AD to the line but he splits them and the lead is two at 2:08. Four straight for the Lakers and the lead is six at 1:15. Another missed three for Barton could be the death knell for Denver. Caruso fouls out and the lead is still six with 42.5 to go. Murray is hacked on a drive by AD but it's a no-call and that's likely a wrap.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +25 as they come up short, by a final score of 96-105

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Final Thoughts:

• Malone's gas-lighting of the Lakers pre-game CLEARLY had no effect on their veteran squad but it was a valiant effort, nonetheless.
  
• Any day now Nikola :/
  

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WE SUCK AGAIN!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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