The good guys

Their adversaries

Nuggets vs Sixers I: "1776 vs 1876"

When last these two teams squared off in game 55 of last season the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players, led by Nikola Jokic: +34. Two players for Denver scored in the red, led by Malik Beasley: -7 as they came up short in Pennsylvania, by a final score of 110-117.

In that game, the dearly departed duo of JJ Redick & Jimmy Butler scored 34 points & 22 respectively. Tobias Harris had 14 points and eight rebounds in his first game for Philadelphia and Joel Embiid scored 15 and grabbed 12 boards. Nikola Jokic led Denver with a 3D line of 27/10/10 and Jamal Murray contributed 23/5/6. Denver was shorthanded, playing without starters Millsap and Gary Harris (per ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, Philly will be without the services of star point-forward Ben Simmons but their starting roster is still formidable, with the off-season addition of Al Horford into the fold. Depth however is a weakness for them and Neto is a massive downgrade from Ben. Their starting five average 32.5 MPG while no bench player gets as much as 20, or contributes more than 8.4 PPG.

Clearly the road to victory for Denver, is paved by an increase in pace, first exhibited vs Miami in the last game, frequent substitutions (something they've yet to utilize), constant and extended effort and exploiting the game within the game, foul trouble; both individual and team fouls.

Unlike most elite big men with social media accounts, Twitter impresario Embiid has been quoted as saying he has nothing but respect for Jokic and looks forward to their infrequent encounters, which have to this point been largely a dead heat. Jokic, in typical Big Honey fashion on the other hand, was quoted this week as saying "I don’t go up against anyone. I just play basketball." when asked about squaring off with Joel. This is not shade, it's not insincerity, it's just who he is, as evidenced by his comments earlier in the week, WRT the return of Will Barton; "It's the same with every player. I don't change anything"

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• PHI gives up 107.1 by their opponents on average, to Denver's 101.1

• PHI averages 112.6 PPG offensively to Denver's 104.3

• This results in a net rating for PHI of +5.5 and +3.2 for Denver

• PHI is 2-0 away from home while Denver is 3-1 from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, PHI is 3-0 to Denver's 3-2 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference is as much if not more than ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver is tied with Dallas for second place in the Western Conference standings, 1 game out of first place while PHI currently tied with Toronto for fourth place in the Eastern Conference, 1 game out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

PHI: RPG 47.3 APG 25.3 SPG 11.0 BPG 5.7 FG% 45.9 3% 33.3 FT% 75.7

DEN: RPG 45.3 APG 23.1 SPG 7.9 BPG 4.4 FG% 43.3 3% 34.8 FT% 78.0

On paper Philly has the massive statistical edge but we have yet to see a big game out of Jokic this season and only twice has the team on whole looked good; one of which occasions occurred in their most recent game so the momentum edge with consideration to Simmons absence and home court advantage, rests squarely with Denver.

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, While all eyes will be on the battle of big men, the outcome of this game will most likely be determined by Denver's ability to contain/score against, Harris/Horford/Richardson while Philly has to be able to avoid any of Denver's rotational bench players, Morris/Beasley/Craig/Grant/Plumlee/MPJ from going ham, something they are all capable of on any given night. Ultimately, that still leaves Gary Harris, Paul Millsap, Jamal Murray and Will Barton for Philly to contend with and I like their odds, vs essentially just Korkmaz.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 109 - Philly - 103

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

(leaving this up despite the expert tank-job being exhibited by the Warriors. Clearly Dallas is now a playoff team.)

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Philadelphia 76ers Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Jonah "The Whale" Bolden (AKA "Anquan" 43	PF	23	6' 8"	215 lbs	UCLA	$1,698,450
	Trey "Dorris" Burke 23	PG	26	6' 0"	191 lbs	Michigan	$1,620,564
	Joel "Sir Tweetsalot" Embiid 21	C	25	7' 0"	250 lbs	Kansas	$27,504,630
	James "Subway To" Ennis III 11	SF	29	6' 6"	201 lbs	Long Beach State	$1,882,867
	Tobias "Funke" Harris 12	SF	27	6' 8"	226 lbs	Tennessee	$32,742,000
	Al "The Artist Formerly Known As The Embiid Stopper" Horford 42	PF	33	6' 9"	246 lbs	Florida	$28,000,000
	Furkan "A" Korkmaz 30	SG	22	6' 7"	185 lbs	--	$1,620,564
	"Master" Shake Milton 18	SG	23	6' 5"	205 lbs	SMU	$1,455,697
	Raul "Nothing But" Neto 19	PG	27	6' 1"	170 lbs	--	$1,620,564
	"Dr" Kyle O'Quinn "Medicine Man" 9	C	29	6' 9"	240 lbs	Norfolk State	$1,620,564
	Norvel "Redenbocker" Pelle 14	SF	26	6' 10"	231 lbs	--	--
	Josh "Pooh" Richardson 0	SG	26	6' 5"	200 lbs	Tennessee	$10,116,576
	Mike "That's What She Said" Scott 1	PF	31	6' 7"	237 lbs	Virginia	$4,767,000
	Marial "Hemingway" Shayok 35	SG	24	6' 5"	198 lbs	Iowa State	--
	Ben "The Peacemaker" Simmons 25	PG	23	6' 10"	240 lbs	LSU	$8,113,930
	Zhaire "Sp? #3" Smith 8	SG	20	6' 3"	205 lbs	Texas Tech	$3,058,800
	"The Artist Currently Known As" Matisse Thybulle 22	SF	22	6' 5"	201 lbs	Washington	$2,582,160

Update: Cancar has been assigned to the G-league affiliate for the Hawks. Bol and Dozier are on G-League assignment with the Bulls affiliate. As for Philly, Simmons is out with a shoulder injury, while Milton is out with a knee injury.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 8 PHI (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +31

Jamal Murray: +36

Gary Harris: +9

Paul Millsap: +12

Will Barton: +16

Monte Morris: +6

Malik Beasley: +0

Torrey Craig: -4

Jerami Grant: +4

Mason Plumlee: -3

Michael Porter Jr.: +0

Juancho Hernangomez: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 8 games +192

Jamal Murray : 8 games +177

Gary Harris: 8 games +109

Paul Millsap: 8 games +72

Will Barton: 6 games +89

Monte Morris: 8 games +64

Malik Beasley: 8 games +14

Torrey Craig: 8 games +8

Jerami Grant: 8 games +74

Mason Plumlee: 8 games +64

Michael Porter Jr.: 4 games +15

Juancho Hernangomez: 3 games +1

Jared Vanderbilt: 2 games +1

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 1 games -3

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +24.00

Jamal Murray: +22.13

Gary Harris: +13.63

Paul Millsap: +9.00

Will Barton: +14.83

Monte Morris: +6.75

Malik Beasley: +1.75

Torrey Craig: +1.00

Jerami Grant: +9.25

Mason Plumlee: +8.00

Michael Porter Jr.: +3.75

Juancho Hernangomez: +0.33

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0.33

Bol Bol: 0 games N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games -3.00

PJ Dozier: 0 games N/A

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 7:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Sixers counter with Neto, Richardson, Harris, Horford & Embiid. Tobias gets the scoring underway for Philly. Both teams look stiff early. Denver in particular is cold, as they get out to an 0-5 start from the floor, prior to a three by Barton. The Nuggets D has been excellent from jump-street and they lead by one, after Jokic forces a 24 second violation by Embiid. Big Honey follows that up with a steal at half-court on the next Philly possession and an assist to Barton for the easy layup and Denver leads by three at the time of the first break, 8:00. Two straight threes by Philly out of the timeout, yields a three point lead for them. Murray nabs his second foul and grabs some pine, replaced by Morris at 6:48.

Millsap has a tough assignment in defending Tobias Harris tonight. His answer is to take Harris down low and HBP is rewarded by drawing a second foul on Harris. Grant replaces 'Sap at 5:04. Joker is mugged by Scott and then Nikola argues until the ref had no choice but to T him up. Plumlee is in for Nikola at 4:10, trailing by five. The pace is at a relative frenzy when it comes to this Nuggets squad but Philly is getting the better of the exchanges at the moment. Both teams are actually failing to convert in transition for the most part and the lead is six for Philly at 4:21. Craig and Beasley round out the second unit at this point. Horford and Embiid quickly earn their respective second fouls and thus-far, Denver is getting the better of "the game within the game." Embiid plays the entire first period.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +7 as they trail 18-24 after one.

Qtr2- The bench advantage for Denver will not likely come into play tonight as Philly doesn't ever let a second of action pass, without at least one (usually no less than two) of their starters on the court. That is not a formula for post season health. Joker is back in for the good guys at 10:53, trailing by six. Malik throws it away, leading to a fast break layup and Philly's biggest lead, ten points at 9:45. MPJ saunters up to the scorers table at this time and I like the move. Denver desperately needs to see some shots tickle the twine and he's just the man for the job. He looks really good in the Mile High City royal blues and so can you. He immediately converts on a drawn-up alley-oop from Jokic, with Jamal setting the back-screen. O'Quinn can't miss and the lead is ten at 8:36. Denver's "future five" of Murray/Harris/MPJ/Grant & Jokic are out there at 7:55, for the first time this season, with an eight point deficit.

Philly quickly increases their advantage to 13 at 7:13 and it's their second unit (plus an ever-present smattering of starters) which I thumbed my nose at in the pregame, who are getting it done. Barton replaces MPJ and the starting five of the present is in tact, trailing by nine. The Nuggets can not buy one from beyond the arc where they are 1-6. Hell, they can't buy a bucket from up close either. Meanwhile Philly is 8-11 from downtown and they lead by 16 at 4:56. Jokic draws a third foul on O'Quinn and at this point I'd rather see Embiid anyway. Jokic is 0-4 from distance tonight. Murray is finally the first player in double digits for Denver, who trail by 12 at 1:45. Malone wisely subs Plumlee in for Jokic at this point to avoid his procuring a third foul. Craig is in for the same reason, a minute later, for Jamal. Barton makes two in double digits for Denver with 16 seconds remaining.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +12 as they trail 42-57 at the half.

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Qtr3- 12 combined points for Jokic/Millsap/Harris is simply not gonna cut it. The bench for Denver also has to step up big time in this half, if the Nuggets want to salvage any hope of getting back into this one. The six bench players to see the court for the Nuggets have a combined eight points. Ultimately, the difference has been wide open shooting from beyond the arc. Neither team's current shooting from distance (9-12 for Philly, 1-7 for Denver) is sustainable so you've gotta think that should even out now. Gary starts the scoring with a transition three, a welcome sight. 'Sap steals the ball from Embiid on a double team and Joel retaliates with his third foul. Gary misses seemingly his zillionth floater of the young season. The lead for Philly is 12 at 7:57, on the strength of a 12-4 run by the good guys. Millsap finally converts on a transition three, cutting it to seven at the time of the first break, 7:09. Jokic makes three in double digits for Denver. Embiid doesn't seem comfortable in the double team and has three turnovers in the period as a result. Big Honey is quite quietly, on 3D watch with a line of 10/6/5 at this time.

The Nuggets are tightening the screws defensively and Murray gets his second blocked shot of the night. Embiid sits early in something of a surprise. The lead is six after Murray drills a three at 5:55. Murray is en fuego! He's scored the last seven for Denver and the crowd finally has something to cheer about. Gary simply can not buy a bucket and you have to wonder if that ankle is bothering him. Fortunately, the Sixers left their shooting touch in the locker room and the Nuggets are still in striking-range, trialing by nine at 3:24. Philly has been particularly dreadful from the line, where they are 1-6 in the period. Fatigue? Bench players for both teams begin filtering in at 3:03 of a ten point game. I'm dialing up a barrage by Beasley at this point, something we've yet to see this season. The average Joe's are actually well below average, IMHO. It is MPJ, not Malik who is in with the second unit in this half, as Murray remains in. Malik is finally in for Murray at 1:46, trailing by 13. God, Denver SUCKS at floaters! Philly is now 12-18 from distance on the night! With Jokic sitting, Philly inserted Embiid and this has resulted in eight straight points for Joel against Plumlee, ballooning the lead to 19. Jokic checks in for the final possession and misses a three at the buzzer. He's now 0-6 from distance.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +15 as they trail 65-84 after three.

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Qtr4- There needs to be a sense of urgency and a mindset of gaining momentum/crowd involvement for the Nuggets or this one is over. Two straight turnovers by Embiid and the lead is down to 14. Jokic FINALLY sticks one from distance and the lead is down to 11, prompting a timeout by Philly at 9:05. Millsap makes four in double digits for Denver and the crowd is back into the fray. The starting five is now in tact for the Nuggets. Embiid is just not the same player when he's defended by Jokic. Brett Brown sees this and benches him for Mike Scott. Big Honey unfortunately has gone cold as a shooter following the three and the lead is 12 at 7:03. The lead is 10 on an alley-oop from Murray to Millsap. Jamal's passing has been stellar tonight and he feeds Joker for two, cutting the lead to eight and forcing another Philly timeout at 4:43. Embiid checks back in and the starting five for each squad is now in tact. He immediately draws an &-1 vs Jokic so what the hell do I know. I know he looked awkward AF on that. Denver is challenging the call but they aren't going to win this one. It might be more a matter of getting the ref to look at Embiid clamping Jokic's arm prior to the foul.The play stands as called with the exception of there being no continuation so it was a challenge well utilized. Jokic drills a three and the lead is six with 3:40 remaining, as Murray earns a 2D line of 18/5/10. Denver is switching in the P&R and it's resulting in Barton effending Embiid.

Joel makes 2-4 from the charity stripe and the lead is seven, prior to an off-balance bank shot by a determined Murray at 2:45, cutting it to five. 'Sap drills a transition three from Murray after a fast & furious, frenzied flurry and the lead is two at 2:00. Embiid is called for the charge and Denver can tie it up with a converted bucket. Instead, Barton throws it away when there was no need to pass to a well covered Murray. That could be costly. The lead is four at 1:27 as Denver calls a timeout to draw up a play. It's a bad one as most ATO plays for Denver are. Embiid earns his 5th foul but it's being challenged. This looks like it'll be called on Tobias instead. The call on the floor stands and it's indeed 5 for Embiid. Barton steps back & clocks a ridiculous three and it's a one point game with a minute to go. Embiid answers on the other end with a layup after the switch. Murray cuts it to one with a layup of his own. Horford airballs a three and Denver will get last crack at it, trailing by one, with 13 seconds to play. Denver has outscored Philly 31 to a reciprocal, despicable 13 in the fourth period. A scramble ensues on the inbound which results in a miraculous, fade-away deuce by Jokic and Denver leads with 1.2 seconds remaining! He was hacked on the shot but they don't have a challenge to utilize. Embiid fouls out on a shove to Jokic who was fronting him on the other end. It's the correct call and Denver inbounds with no timeouts. Barton gets it and he's fouled with 0:03 on the clock. He heads to the line where he calmly sinks both. Ballgame!

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +36 as they come back from a 21 point fourth quarter deficit, the largest fourth quarter deficit-comeback in team history and win by a final score of 100-97. What a ballgame!

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Final Thoughts:

• I don't know what's happening in practice but I think it may be just about time to spend some time ironing out the kinks on offense. You don't hear the coaching staff saying much about anything but D.
  
• This was a poor showing for Harris so one has to wonder if the ankle injury is bothering him. It might be prudent to rest him for a game or two, insert Malik and see if they can get both players going as a result.
  
• Denver didn't deserve to win but it's exciting to see the fight in them
• Philly will be just fine. I'd be VERY surprised if they don't come out of the east this season. I will never speak ill of their bench again, especially since they'll have Ill-Will by playoff time.
  
• The Nuggets outscored the Sixers 35-13 in the fourth period. Now THAT'S real-estate!
• Murray is sensational! He should be a lock for the all-star game if Denver finishes the first half in the top two or three spots, in the insanely competitive Western Conference.
• "The West is the best. The West is the best. Get here... we'll do the rest." Jim Morrison.

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The Nuggets Win!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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