The good guys

An inaccurate portrayal of their adversaries

Nuggets vs Heat I: "Hassan Chopped. Bam!"

When last these two teams squared off in game 56 of last season the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from seven players, led by Malik Beasley: +25. Three players for the Denver Nuggets scored in the red, led by Torrey Craig: -8 as Denver won going away (something which has yet to occur this season) by a final score of 103-87.

In that game, the Denver Nuggets halted a three-game skid by turning up their defense and turning things over to their deep guard rotation. On a night in which Jamal Murray (3 for 12) wasn't shooting well, two other guards stepped up. Not only did Morris score 17, but Malik Beasley chipped in 20. Nikola Jokic had 23 points and 12 rebounds for Denver, which swept the season series from the Heat for the first time since 2008-09 and improved to 18-1 when holding opponents under 100 points. The Heat scored 38 second-half points and shot 36 percent from the field, led by Justise Winslow's 15 points. "Our focus and intensity is in the right place, but our execution was a bit off for a bunch of reasons," Winslow said. "But they outplayed us tonight. That's the bottom line. They're the better team." (per ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, this year's Heat squad is markedly improved and should finish amongst the best teams in terms of record, in the depleted Eastern Conference. Taking a page out of last year's Nuggets, they have eight players averaging above double figures in scoring, with two more knocking at the door. They are lead by the always dangerous two-way talent that is Jimmy Butler and have received solid contributions from rookie Tyler Herro and rookie (in name only) Kendrick Nunn, as well as the drastically improved Bam Adebayo who made Hassan Whiteside expendable in the off season.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• MIA gives up 106.2 by their opponents on average, to Denver's 103.2

• MIA averages 117.8 PPG offensively to Denver's 103.5

• This results in an NBA best net rating for MIA of +11.6 and +0.3 for Denver

• MIA is 2-1 away from home while Denver is 2-1 from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, MIA is 3-0 to Denver's 3-2 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference is as much if not more than ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver is tied with three other teams for fourth place in the Western Conference standings, 1 game out of first place while MIA currently in second place in the Eastern Conference, 0.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

MIA: RPG 47.0 APG 27.0 SPG 10.0 BPG 7.0 FG% 48.0 3% 40.1 FT% 72.7

DEN: RPG 45.0 APG 21.2 SPG 7.5 BPG 4.7 FG% 41.8 3% 34.3 FT% 79.6

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, these are two of the deepest teams in the league on paper but while Denver has been severely under-performing in terms of bench play, it would be fair to say that Miami has thus-far out-played their bench potential. They are very good, don't get me wrong but are they THIS good? They are coming off of a trouncing of the HIGHLY over-rated Rockets in Houston, so I feel like they are ripe for the picking against the well-rested Nuggets. Having said all of that, no game has been easy for Denver so far and to suspect otherwise until they establish offensive flow and defensive effort would be a fools errand.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 109 - Miami 107

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Miami Heat Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	"Bam" Adebayo 13	PF	22	6' 9"	243 lbs	Kentucky	$3,454,080
	Jimmy "The Greek" Butler 22	SF	30	6' 7"	220 lbs	Marquette	$32,742,000
	Goran "The Dragon" Dragic 7	PG	33	6' 3"	190 lbs	--	$19,217,900
	Udonis "For Seriously?" Haslem 40	PF	39	6' 8"	235 lbs	Florida	$1,620,564
	Tyler "Gyro" Herro 14	SG	19	6' 5"	195 lbs	Kentucky	$3,640,200
	James "Jonas Jerebko" Johnson 16	PF	32	6' 7"	240 lbs	Wake Forest	$15,349,400
	Derrick "Bones"Jones Jr. 5	SF	22	6' 6"	195 lbs	UNLV	$1,645,357
	Meyers "Gargantuan Bieber" Leonard 0	C	27	7' 0"	245 lbs	Illinois	$11,286,516
	Daryl "Mark" Macon 15	SG	23	6' 2"	185 lbs	Arkansas	--
	Kendrick "The Flying" Nunn 25	SG	24	6' 2"	184 lbs	Oakland	$1,416,852
	KZ "KZ?" Okpala 4	SF	20	6' 8"	215 lbs	Stanford	$898,310
	Kelly "The Owl" Olynyk 9	PF	28	6' 11"	234 lbs	Gonzaga	$12,667,885
	Duncan "The Fundamental Admiral" Robinson 55	SF	25	6' 7"	215 lbs	Michigan	$1,416,852
	Chris "Anderson" Silva 30	PF	23	6' 8"	234 lbs	South Carolina	--
	Dion "20% Tip" Waiters 11	SG	27	6' 3"	210 lbs	Syracuse	$12,100,000
	Justise "Sp? #2" Winslow 20	SF	23	6' 6"	222 lbs	Duke	$13,000,000

Update: Barton is questionable with a toe injury. Bol and Dozier are on G-League assignment with the Bulls affiliate. As for Miami, Okpala is out with an Achilles injury, While Jones/Winslow are game-time decisions with groin and back issues, respectively. Waiters meanwhile, is questionable with a bout of pout.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 7 MIA (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +19

Jamal Murray: +31

Gary Harris: +11

Paul Millsap: +12

Will Barton: +21

Monte Morris: +14

Malik Beasley: +2

Torrey Craig: +9

Jerami Grant: +19

Mason Plumlee: +17

Michael Porter Jr.: +2

Juancho Hernangomez: +0

Jared Vanderbilt: -2

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 7 games +161

Jamal Murray : 7 games +141

Gary Harris: 7 games +100

Paul Millsap: 7 games +65

Will Barton: 5 games +73

Monte Morris: 7 games +48

Malik Beasley: 7 games +14

Torrey Craig: 7 games +12

Jerami Grant: 7 games +70

Mason Plumlee: 7 games +67

Michael Porter Jr.: 3 games +15

Juancho Hernangomez: 3 games +1

Jared Vanderbilt: 2 games +1

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 1 games -3

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +23.00

Jamal Murray: +20.14

Gary Harris: +14.29

Paul Millsap: +9.29

Will Barton: +14.60

Monte Morris: +6.86

Malik Beasley: +2.00

Torrey Craig: +1.71

Jerami Grant: +10.00

Mason Plumlee: +9.57

Michael Porter Jr.: +5.00

Juancho Hernangomez: +0.33

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0.33

Bol Bol: 0 games N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games -3.00

PJ Dozier: 0 games N/A

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 6:
*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Heat counter with Nunn, Winslow, Butler, Adebayo & Leonard. Will the Nuggets broadcast EVER have decent intro music? Not bloody likely if the Friday night halftime acts they book are any indication. It's great to have Barton back out there, following his two game absence. Denver is playing with vim and or vigor early and lead by five at 10:35. All five starters for Denver have scored at 9:30 they are a perfect 6-6 from the floor. Jokic earns two quick fouls but remains in at 7:54, leading by five.

Is it possible to play with vim but not vigor, or vice versa? Can something be versa but not vice? Joker takes a seat at the time of the first break, 5:45. He's of course replaced by Plumlee. Grant is in for Millsap at 3:56, leading by three. Murray is looking like an NBA point guard this season, earning his pay-raise. Miami briefly takes a one point lead before Grant restores order for the good guys. The second unit for Denver is in tact at 2:45, trailing now by one. Craig finally sticks a three and the lead for Denver is two at 1:35. Grant follows that up with a sorely-needed inside-out bomb of his own.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +9 as they lead 29-28 after one.

Qtr2- The Nuggets offensive flow is looking as good as it has at any point since opening night in Portland. Monte is following up a very good game in Orlando with perhaps an even better one tonight. To answer my semi-rhetorical, pre-game question, yes, Miami's bench is that good. They retake a three point lead on the strength of an extended 11-4 run. Grant hammers down a hard jam for an &-1, where Olynyk is called for a phantom foul despite being hit in the face with this downward trajectory, guided-missile. Jokic is in for the Nuggets at 9:35 as Dragic is starting to assert himself for Miami. They lead by four at this point. The rest of Denver's starters begin to filter in at 8:35. Only Grant who has played well, remains in, of the bench squad. SSS but I'm not buying the Bam Adebayo hype based solely upon eye-test/stats tonight alone. Of course, no sooner do I say this than he draws a third foul on Jokic, again of the phantom variety. Mason comes in for Nikola, who seems dissatisfied with the decision by Malone but doesn't make an enormous stink about it.

Barton looks to have all the spring in his step that he did prior to what appears to have been a minor toe ailment. Excellent news. Miami clings to a one point lead at 6:43. Of the 10 players for Denver to see action, only Beasley has yet to score. Miami takes far too many fouls that should be uncontested layups by Denver, resulting instead in &-1's. Denver retakes the lead on one such play, Barton becoming beneficiary. Gary Harris has been an ELITE defender this season. The Nuggets lead by six on the strength of a 9-0 run, after a fade-away from 15 feet by Plumlee of all people, causing Spoelstra to call a time out at 3:20. Murray is first to reach double digits for Denver, who lead by seven following his three, at 2:18. Denver's guards have clearly been chewed out about not hitting the defensive glass, as they've been emphatic about it tonight. The lead is up to 11 after a three by Barton, following a crazy scramble, at 1:02. Will makes two in double digits for Denver. 'Sap earns his third foul and sits with 43 seconds to go. Five Nuggets will enter the intermission in double digits in terms of TPM™; a team high in this young season.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +16 as they lead 58-48 at the half.

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Qtr3- Harris is out for the game with an ankle injury. Horrible news. Craig is out there in his stead. Murray goes down hard on his first drive and fails to make it back on D but remains in. He is subsequently fouled on a three point attempt and misses 2-3 from the charity stripe, indicating that he hasn't quite shaken the cobwebs out. Leonard fouls Millsap HARD in transition, causing 'Sap and Winslow to collide and Paul is instantly split wide open (even in slow-mo.) Not sure if it was intentional or incredibly clumsy but either way it was a bad look for Leonard. The play is currently being reviewed. Millsap must now wait to get stitches so that he can shoot FT's, so as to avoid being the second Nugget to be forced out of action in the second half. The officials have determined that it was a flagrant-1 on Leonard but I actually think it was more clumsy than dirty. The Nuggets are taping a pseudo-headband onto Paul so he can shoot the FT's. Return of HBP in the coming days inevitable? He calmly sinks both free-throws and is now 22-23 on the year. He heads off to the locker room to get stitched up. It should be mentioned that Craig has been serviceable tonight; that is to say it's been his best game of the year. Grant scores two in a row on excellent feeds by Torrey, and Jerami/Paul make four in double digits for Denver, who have their biggest lead of 15 at 8:45. Jamal hits the deck for the third time this half and it's really getting rough out there, as Jokic sends Butler to the floor after a bad pass by Murray

It was Nikola's 4th foul in only 13 minutes of action. It's being reviewed for suspicion of a clear-path/flagrant foul. Common foul is the ruling. At any rate, Jokic is on the pine for the rest of the third while Harris/Millsap are out indefinitely, so the Nuggets bench will have to really test their intestinal fortitude tonight. Winslow has developed into a great all-around player with both offensive and defensive BBIQ in spades. Miami is tightening the screws defensively but neither team is doing much scoring at the moment. Craig is having one of those weird nights where he seemingly recalls out of nowhere, that he's a capable rebounder. Miami is going to the line often in the period but can't buy one. Both teams are ice cold from all three zones in fact, including right in front of the rim. Barton has a 2D with a line of 12/10/3 at 5:23, leading by 14. Plumlee makes five in double digits for Denver, who lead by 19 at 4:51. Both teams are in the bonus at 4:08 and the Nuggets lead is up to 24. Denver is playing excellent D, with the exception of the always-defensively-unaware, Malik Beasley. Plumlee is gassed after a fantastic run in the third and Big Honey comes in for him at 2:59, up by 17. Delectable Dunk on an alley-oop from Dragic to Jones. The man can fly, I can't deny. Jokic makes his trademarked, baseline, one-legged rainbow, for the second night in a row, this tome with plenty of time on the shot clock. It's no accident folks!

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +23 as they lead 89-69 after three.

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Qtr4- The poor cameraman Steve, for Altitude is getting the slobber knocked out of him tonight. Monte is heating up and Denver once again leads by 24 at 10:21. Miami appears to be fatigued from cardio-guffawing at the Rockets attempts at efending the other night. Man I loathe the Rockets. I liked them better the first time, when they were Denver. Never mind that I wasn't born yet. Jokic picks the pocket of Dragic and tosses a picture-perfect alley-oop to Torrey, in one motion. Denver leads by 25 at 8.07. It is a joy to see how in-control Jamal Murray is, in orchestrating the offense this year and he even appears to have picked up a few "veteran" tricks on the defensive end, particularly in the post. The lead is 23 at 6:22 and it's all over but the MPJ watch at this point.

Right on cue, the crowd starts chanting M-P-J at 5:55. The rookies for Miami meanwhile, have also failed to appear tonight. It could be said that Nunn is living up to his name. The M-P-J chant starts up again at 4:22 and I have a feeling this will grow to be the bane of Coach Malone's 2019-'20 existence. Both teams are completely listless at this point and one hopes that the Nuggets don't develop any bad habits in these final four minutes, leading by 19 currently. God, I HATE the "who's ball" call-and-response PA-fuckery that Kyle Speller tortures the canned crowd with. Morris makes six in double digits for Denver. MPJ checks in at 3:13 and the crowd erupts. This will be his Pepsi Center debut. Juancho/Vando check in at 1:45 and that's all she wrote. Well, that's all I'M writing anyway. I Lied. MPJ has a slick tip-dunk which causes Nuggets fans everywhere, trouser arousal. Trouserousal?!?!

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +31 as they win going away, 109-89.

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Final Thoughts:

• Welcome back Will.
• Get well soon Gary and Paul.
• "The West is the best. The West is the best. Get here... we'll do the rest." Jim Morrison.
  
• Denver FINALLY has their first blowout victory of the year and the depth was once again the strength it should have been in every game thus-far.
  
• Miami is going to be just fine but they are a couple of years away from contention, in my estimation.
  
• I'm so fucking wet right now!
• The Nuggets are still one of only two teams (Orlando) who have yet to surpass 110 points in a game this season.
  
• Murray may just give Jokic a run for his TPM™ money this year. If I were a scumfuck sheeple, I'd utter something passe and unoriginal which I'm far too old/highfalutin for, such as "I'm here for it"
  
• Believe it or not, this was the first game in which Denver has shot above 50% from the floor, all season!
  

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The Nuggets Win!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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