The good guys

Their adversaries

Nuggets vs Wizards I: "I got your hey oh. Now listen what I say, oh"

When last these two teams squared off in game 76 of last season the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from five players led by Nikola Jokic: +27. Three players for Denver were in the red for that match-up led by Mason Plumlee: -8 as the Nuggets imploded in spectacular fashion, losing 95-90 in The Mile High City.

In that game, Nikola Jokic was bloodied early, upset late, and ultimately his temper boiled over at a critical time for the Denver Nuggets. Jokic shook off a bloody nose in the first quarter but his anger at a non-call got him ejected late in the fourth. It was the final blow for Denver.

It was a rough night all around for Jokic. He scored the first 10 points of the game for Denver and was 7-of-8 shooting when Bobby Portis hit him in the nose with his left hand while going up for a layup. Jokic left the game with a bloody nose and didn't return until midway through the second quarter.

Later, Portis wrapped him up on a post-up and rode Jokic's back as the center tried to push him off. "I think our physicality got under his skin a little bit," Portis said. "I think the ref did a great job of us letting us play and being physical with each other."

Clearly not sharing Portis' opinion, Jokic stated, "I was fouled. They're going to see it in the (Last Two-Minute Report), they're going to see that it was a foul. I said, `James (Capers) he slapped me, two hands in the head. I don't know, I swear or something, but he gave me a technical. Then I said something back. He said, `Do you want another one,' I said, `I don't care' and he gave me another one."

Nikola finished with 23 points and 14 rebounds but was in the locker room for the final 3:36, when the Wizards pulled away, leaving the Nuggets struggling down the stretch. "Can't get tossed," Nuggets coach Michael Malone said. "I don't care what they do to him, how bad the refereeing is, foul call, no foul call, it doesn't matter. He's too valuable to this team."

Tony Brown Jr. scored 24 points, Thomas Bryant and Nugget-killer Jabari Parker each had 20 for the Wizards.

Washington held Denver to just 28 points in the second half.

The loss came at price for Denver. Starting point guard Jamal Murray left the game in the third quarter with a sprained left ankle and didn't return.

Without Murray and Jokic in the final minutes, the Wizards closed the game on a 7-2 run.

(The previous section comes with contributive information and quotes from ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, It would be unfair to call Washington a one man show as they get excellent contribution from about seven or eight players and have six currently with scoring averages in double figures but it's fair to say that if you stop Bradley Beal, you are highly likely to win against this rebuilding team in the leastern conference. Beal is having a career year, with a line of 30/5/7 per night on 47/35/83 splits. Bryant is much improved, the excellent rookie Hachimura is a building block for the future and it is great to see recent-Nugget Isaiah Thomas, finally having a bounce-back year as the team's starting PG. He averages 13/2/6 on sizzle-the-pits-splits of 44/42/91. We can expect him to come out with a desire to prove Denver wrong tonight and if the Nuggets aren't careful, the same outcome from their previous encounter, could befall them, especially with a tiny crowd predicted due to the snow storm.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• WAS gives up 120.3 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 101.7

• WAS averages 119.1 PPG offensively to Denver's 106.7

• This results in a net rating for WAS of -1.2 and +5.0 for Denver

• WAS is 2-5 away from home while Denver is 7-2 from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, WAS is 2-4 to Denver's 7-2 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver of course is 2nd in the Western Conference standings, 1 game ahead of the Clippers while WAS currently resides in 9th place in the Eastern Conference, 7.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

WAS: RPG 42.8 APG 28.8 SPG 6.6 BPG 4.2 FG% 48.1 FT% 37.9 3% 80.9

DEN: RPG 46.9 APG 25.7 SPG 7.7 BPG 5.0 FG% 44.4 FT% 35.9 3% 74.0

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, this is an example of a team that scores a ton but allows even more, in Washington, against an elite defensive team with the ability to get buckets in bunches when needed. On paper the advantage would seem to always go to the latter brand of basketball but as the last time they played served to illustrate, the game is played on the court and if Denver does have a weakness, it is in it's propensity to overlook opponents. I've got a bad feeling about this one. I think ultimately Washington doesn't have enough defensive acumen to win a close one but I do see Denver playing without focus tonight, given the opponent and the weather.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 129 - Washington 123

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

(leaving this up despite the expert tank-job being exhibited by the Warriors. Clearly Dallas is now a playoff team.)

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Coach: Michael "Post" Malone

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Will "The People's Champion" Barton 5	SG	28	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$12,776,786
	"Mutant" Malik Beasley 25	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$2,731,714
	Bol "Bilbo Baggins" Bol 10	C	19	7' 2"	220 lbs	Oregon	--
	Vlatko "Slovenian Cyborg" Cancar 31	SF	22	6' 8"	210 lbs	Slovenia	$898,310
	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig 3	SF	28	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
	PJ "Bol" Dozier 35	PG	22	6' 6"	205 lbs	South Carolina	--
	Jerami "The Co-Host" Grant 9	SF	25	6' 9"	220 lbs	Syracuse	$9,346,153
	"Just" Gary Harris 14	SG	25	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$17,839,286
	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez 41	PF	24	6' 9"	230 lbs	España	$3,321,030
	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA Joker) 15	C	24	7' 0"	250 lbs	Sř̩bija	$27,504,630
	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap 4	PF	34	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$30,350,000
	Monte "Ratio" Morris 11	PG	24	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,588,231
	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray 27	PG	22	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$4,444,746
	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee 24	PF	29	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$14,041,096
	Michael "Half Man / Other Half, Also Man... Basically, All Man" Porter Jr. 1	PF	21	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$3,389,400

Washington Wizards Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Bradley "Sex Appeal" Beal 3	SG	26	6' 3"	207 lbs	Florida	$27,093,019
	"The Magnificent" Davis Bertans 42	SF	27	6' 10"	225 lbs	--	$7,000,000
	Isaac "The Little Drummer Boy" Bonga 17	SG	20	6' 8"	180 lbs	--	$1,416,842
	Troy "The Horse" Brown Jr. 6	SG	20	6' 6"	215 lbs	Oregon	$3,219,480
	Thomas "The Purple Mamba" Bryant 13	C	22	6' 10"	248 lbs	Indiana	$8,000,000
	"Charismatic" Chris Chiozza 9	PG	24	5' 11"	175 lbs	Florida	$1,416,852
	Rui "Kablooey" Hachimura 8	PF	21	6' 8"	230 lbs	Gonzaga	$4,469,160
	"Long" Ian Mahinmi 28	C	33	6' 11"	262 lbs	--	$15,450,051
	"Mr" Garrison Mathews 24	SG	23	6' 5"	215 lbs	Lipscomb	--
	Jordan "Hal" McRae 52	SG	28	6' 5"	179 lbs	Tennessee	$1,645,357
	C.J. "I Can See For Miles And" Miles 34	SG	32	6' 6"	220 lbs	--	$8,333,333
	Justin "The Admiral" Robinson 5	PG	22	6' 1"	195 lbs	Virginia Tech	$898,310
	Admiral "Needs No Nickname" Schofield 1	SG	22	6' 5"	241 lbs	Tennessee	$1,000,000
	Ish "Puritan For Shit" Smith 14	PG	31	6' 0"	175 lbs	Wake Forest	$6,000,000
	Isaiah "IT" Thomas 4	PG	30	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,620,564
	Moritz "The Valkyrie" Wagner 21	SF	22	6' 11"	245 lbs	Michigan	$2,063,520
	John "Skeet" Wall 2	PG	29	6' 4"	210 lbs	Kentucky	$38,199,000

Update: Bol is on the active roster but not dressing out. Cancar has been assigned to the G-league affiliate for the Hawks. Dozier is on G-League assignment with the Bulls affiliate. Vanderbilt meanwhile, was assigned to the Rio Grande Valley Vipers and I don't care what anyone says, I want them to be playing on the same G-League team, under command of the Denver Nuggets where they can be deployed as best fit and can begin to build chemistry together. As for Washington, Mahinmi and Wall are both out with achiles injuries.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 16 WAS (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +17

Jamal Murray: +14

Gary Harris: +16

Paul Millsap: -6

Will Barton: +24

Monte Morris: +18

Malik Beasley: +16

Torrey Craig: N/A

Jerami Grant: +8

Mason Plumlee: +13

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Juancho Hernangomez: -2

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 16 games +369

Jamal Murray : 16 games +338

Gary Harris: 16 games +186

Paul Millsap: 16 games +189

Will Barton: 14 games +190

Monte Morris: 16 games +160

Malik Beasley: 12 games +47

Torrey Craig: 12 games +11

Jerami Grant: 16 games +135

Mason Plumlee: 16 games +84

Michael Porter Jr.: 10 games +22

Juancho Hernangomez: 9 games +9

Jared Vanderbilt: 3 games +1

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 1 games -3

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +23.06

Jamal Murray: +21.13

Gary Harris: +11.63

Paul Millsap: +11.81

Will Barton: +13.57

Monte Morris: +10.00

Malik Beasley: +3.92

Torrey Craig: +0.85

Jerami Grant: +8.44

Mason Plumlee: +5.25

Michael Porter Jr.: +2.20

Juancho Hernangomez: +1.00

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0.33

Bol Bol: 0 games N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games -3.00

PJ Dozier: 0 games N/A

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 16:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Wizards counter with IT, Beal, Brown, Hachimura & Thomas. Washington is putting their three game win streak in Denver on the line tonight. I've still never seen a Freddy's frozen custard joint but they still keep advertising them. Looks like Hastings is doing radio, so we are treated to Katy Winge again. Enjoy her while we've got her Nuggets fans. Barton seems flustered in the early going and The Wizards get out to an early four point lead. "Troy Brown Jr with a senior moment" declares the always witty Marlowe, who's erroneously been accused by some Stiffs of having his share of them. Jokic is focused and sharp as Denver takes the lead by one at 8:20.

Bryant checks out with two early fouls as the Wizards lead 12-11 at 7:16, the time of the first break. Barton is throwing some careless passes but has an edge of confidence about him now, after re-calibrating during the time out, as Denver leads by four at 4:22. Denver can get anything they want offensively but have yet to solve Washington in the P&R, defensively. All 11 combined players for both squads have scored. Grant is first off the pine for the good guys at this time. Barton is now drawing a double team from Washington, something I don't believe I've seen before. Juancho and Monte are in at 2:35, leading by two. Malik/Mason are next in at 1:56 and the second unit is in tact. A lot of flopping going on for the Wizards who i'll henceforth shorthand to the "Wiz." It seems the Wiz' only defensive "strategy" is to attempt to draw charges. Miles has two quick fouls for them while the Nuggets have yet to commit a single foul.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +9 as they lead 25-23 after one.

Qtr2- The Wiz continue to flop about and are starting to be rewarded for their devilish deeds. Beasley appears to be playing with confidence for the first time in this young season. Denver has six fouls already at 9:14. Grant is having a rough night on both ends thus-far. Two more fouls on Denver who again, had zero in the first period and the Wiz are in the bonus, while three players (Plumlee/Grant/Juancho) have 2 fouls for the Nuggets. Denver leads by four in spite of this at the time of the first break, 8:22. All 10 Nuggets to see action tonight have scored, while 9/10 (Bertans) have for the Wiz. Grant, like Barton previously, seems to have re-calibrated after a timeout. Juancho takes a seat with three fouls at 7:57, leading by three. Ish Smith resembles a bullfrog leaping into the pond, on a three point attempt.

The starters begin filtering in at 7:05, leading by four. Grant is first in double digits for Denver at 6:42. He stretches the lead up to nine at 6:06 with an &-one. Jokic/Murray who remain on the bench have combined for just four points thus-far. Jamal and Jokic check in and the offense kicks it into another gear, as the lead is now 13 at 4:41. 'Sap is in at 3:50 and the starting five is in tact, now up by 11. Marlowe is doing an excellent job of illustrating why the "only-Jokic" fouls are such a bad play by Denver's superstar. My old coach used to call them compound-mistakes. Barton makes two in double digits for Denver, who lead by 13 at 1:55. The Wiz are shooting 6.3% from distance (1-16.) They are normally outstanding from both there and the charity stripe. Murray makes three in double digits for Denver as the half draws to a close.

Denver is paced in TPM by Will Barton: +18 as they lead 64-47 at the half.

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Qtr3- The Nuggets are... uncrisp, to open the third period and the lead is down to 12 at 10:45. The Wiz have outscored Denver 10-4 in the quarter and the lead is down to 11 at 8:57. Denver is really looking to run on the outlet pass this half and they lead by 18 at 7:03. Barton is taking charge with an excellent all-around game and the lead is 20 at 5:32. The Wiz are pushing back after the break and cut it to 14 at 4:30, as Grant is in for 'Sap. Jokic has 19 rebounds and he'd easily break his record of 21 if he plays in the fourth, which is very much in doubt. Gary Harris is T-ed up for getting T-ed off, following what was an obvious foul that wasn't. Jokic takes his second, careless, "only-Jokic" foul and he takes a seat. The Wiz are in the penalty at 1:51, trailing by 16. Denver is +22 on the glass tonight! Harris makes four in double digits for Denver, who lead by 17 with under a minute to play.

Denver is paced in TPM by Will Barton: +20 as they lead 86-69 after three.

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Qtr4- The second unit for Denver is in tact after Harris and Barton played the entire third. "A little hocus-pocus" declares a self-satisfied Marlowe, who was clearly sitting on that one all night, following a bucket by Morris. The lead is 19 for Denver at 7:59. Grant has a season high 20 points for the Nuggets, who lead by 16 with 7:01 remaining. In a bit of a surprise, Barton is inserted for Juancho at this point. The canned crowd at Pepsi Center is chanting MPJ as is their wont, as Denver leads by 17 at 5:51.

The Wiz cut it to 14 with 5:08 remaining so it seems unlikely we'll see him in anything but the waning moments, something that to his credit, Malone has been good about not doing this season. The lead is up to 18 at 3:30 but McCrae is doing his damnedest to keep the Wiz in the thick of things. Plumlee makes five in double digits for Denver, who lead by 13 with two minutes to go. That'll about do it so I'm gonna wrap up my analysis and enjoy viewing the last two minutes for a change. Morris makes six in double digits for Denver.

Denver is paced in TPM by Will Barton: +24 as they win big, 117-104

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Final Thoughts:

• That Murray and Barton (who've drastically improved defensively, don't get me wrong) are rated above Gary Harris (all in the top ten amongst NBA guards) tells you all you need to know about the efficacy of defensive metrics. You are punished for having the ability to effect offensive flow with your hustle and DBBIQ.
• Denver scores 70 PITP!
• Denver holds the second highest scoring team in the league to just 104.
  
• Quick! Switch over to ESPN2 and catch the undefeated, #21 CU Buffs take on Clemson, tipping off at 9:38.
  

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THE NUGGETS WIN!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.
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