The good guys

Their adversaries

Nuggets vs Celtics I: "Green Is The Colour"

When last these two teams squared off in game 69 of last season, the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from six players, led by Nikola Jokic: +33. No players for Denver scored in the red, as the Nuggets secured entry into the playoffs for first time since '13, by a final score of 114-105, in Massachusetts.

In that game, Nikola Jokic had 21 points and 13 rebounds and the Nuggets rallied in the fourth quarter to win. Will Barton added 20 points for Denver. Boston's since-departed duo, Kyrie Irving & Al Horford led the Celtics with 30 points / 20 points, six rebounds and six assists, respectively. "You gotta play well for 48 minutes against those guys," Irving said. "They've come back from 18 down, 17 down. They keep firing." The game felt like a match-up between two postseason-bound teams. (per ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, Boston is the second best team in the East by record and have no shortage of people who can present problems. They are young like the Nuggets and have multiple two-way talents but can't boast of the depth they've enjoyed in past seasons. Do they have anyone who can guard Jokic? Of course not but then, no one does. What they do have is a dangerous shooter in Tatum, one of the best PG's in the league in Walker and one of my personal favorite players, Marcus Smart, perhaps the best defender of guards/wings in the league. Much of what he does is incalculable but he's a guy you want on your team / can't stand to go up against. Jalen Brown has also taken an offensive step forward to match his defensive acumen, which is being highlighted currently, due to the unfortunate injury to Gordan Hayward.

These are two well-balanced teams who are both adept defensively but not entirely foreign to offense, they just go about it differently. Boston is playing with more pace this season while Denver's offense is almost entirely predicated on getting stops and allowing Jokic to orchestrate in the half court.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• BOS gives up 104.4 by their opponents on average, to Denver's 102.3

• BOS averages 112.0 PPG offensively to Denver's 106.8

• This results in a net rating for BOS of +7.6 and +4.5 for Denver

• BOS is 6-3 away from home while Denver is 5-2 from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, BOS is 7-1 to Denver's 6-2 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference is as much if not more than ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver is in second place in the Western Conference standings, 1.5 games out, while BOS is currently tied in second place in the Eastern Conference, 0.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

BOS: RPG 47.1 APG 24.6 SPG 8.6 BPG 5.7 FG% 44.3 3% 35.4 FT% 79.2

DEN: RPG 46.5 APG 26.0 SPG 8.1 BPG 5.2 FG% 44.2 3% 35.9 FT% 73.9

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, Boston deploys an extremely small lineup when compared to the relative beef that is Millsap/Jokic/Plumlee down low. They attempt to make up with this by switching, with excellent defenders like Smart and Brown but I don't know that they have enough raw-bulk to counter the leaning and bodying, coupled with the altitude. I predict a close game and in the end they will fatigue as most of Denver's opponents (yes, on the road as well Philly fanatic) inevitably do and the outside shots will begin to draw iron or miss altogether, especially if Boston makes the mistake of having Tatum defend Millsap in the post. Denver has to avoid foul trouble as the Celtics are an excellent team at the line.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 109 - BOS 97

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

(leaving this up despite the expert tank-job being exhibited by the Warriors. Clearly Dallas is now a playoff team.)

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Boston Celtics Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	"Never Failin" Jaylen Brown 7	SG	23	6' 6"	223 lbs	California	$6,534,829
	Carsen "Johnny" Edwards 4	PG	21	5' 11"	200 lbs	Purdue	$1,228,026
	Tacko "Supreme" Fall 99	C	23	7' 5"	311 lbs	UCF	--
	Javonte "Stop Calling Me Jeff" Green 43	SG	26	6' 4"	205 lbs	Radford	$898,310
	Gordon "Lightfoot" Hayward 20	SF	29	6' 7"	225 lbs	Butler	$32,700,690
	Enes "Sure I'd Love To Visit My Homeland But I" Kanter 11	C	27	6' 10"	250 lbs	Kentucky	$4,767,000
	Romeo "Montague" Langford 45	SG	20	6' 4"	216 lbs	Indiana	$3,458,400
	Semi "The Diesel" Ojeleye 37	PF	24	6' 6"	240 lbs	SMU	$1,618,520
	Vincent "Sydney" Poirier 77	C	26	7' 0"	235 lbs	--	$2,505,793
	Marcus "DBBIQ" Smart 36	PG	25	6' 3"	220 lbs	Oklahoma State	$12,553,571
	Jayson "Sp? #5" Tatum 0	PF	21	6' 8"	210 lbs	Duke	$7,830,000
	Daniel "Reggie" Theis 27	PF	27	6' 8"	245 lbs	--	$5,000,000
	Kemba "Land" Walker 8	PG	29	6' 0"	184 lbs	Connecticut	$32,742,000
	Brad Wanamaker "Deal?" 9	PG	30	6' 3"	210 lbs	Pittsburgh	$1,445,697
	Tremont "Roger" Waters 51	PG	21	5' 10"	175 lbs	LSU	--
	Grant "Hill" Williams 12	PF	20	6' 6"	236 lbs	Tennessee	$2,379,840
	Robert "Don't Call Me Robbie" Williams 44	C	22	6' 8"	237 lbs	Texas A&M	$1,937,520

Update: Cancar has been assigned to the G-league affiliate for the Hawks. Bol and Dozier are on G-League assignment with the Bulls affiliate. Vanderbilt meanwhile, was assigned to the Rio Grande Valley Vipers and I don't care what anyone says, I want them to be playing on the same G-League team, under command of the Denver Nuggets where they can be deployed as best fit and can begin to build chemistry together. As for Boston, Hayward is out with a hand injury and someone named Romeo Langford is apparently a game time decision, with an ankle injury.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 14 BOS (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +31

Jamal Murray: +20

Gary Harris: +10

Paul Millsap: +15

Will Barton: +9

Monte Morris: +2

Malik Beasley: N/A

Torrey Craig: N/A

Jerami Grant: +2

Mason Plumlee: +2

Michael Porter Jr.: +2

Juancho Hernangomez: -6

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 14 games +328

Jamal Murray : 14 games +306

Gary Harris: 14 games +176

Paul Millsap: 14 games +175

Will Barton: 12 games +148

Monte Morris: 14 games +121

Malik Beasley: 10 games +19

Torrey Craig: 12 games +14

Jerami Grant: 14 games +128

Mason Plumlee: 14 games +75

Michael Porter Jr.: 9 games +22

Juancho Hernangomez: 7 games +13

Jared Vanderbilt: 3 games +1

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 1 games -3

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +23.43

Jamal Murray: +21.86

Gary Harris: +12.57

Paul Millsap: +12.50

Will Barton: +12.33

Monte Morris: +8.64

Malik Beasley: +1.90

Torrey Craig: +1.17

Jerami Grant: +9.14

Mason Plumlee: +5.36

Michael Porter Jr.: +2.44

Juancho Hernangomez: +1.86

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0.33

Bol Bol: 0 games N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games -3.00

PJ Dozier: 0 games N/A

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 12:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Celtics counter with Walker, Smart, Brown, Tatum & Theis. Two straight turnovers to begin this one for Denver. Nearly a third straight as they are being entirely too careless with defending hands in the passing lane. Big Honey breaks the ice with a J at 10:10 and this has the look of an extremely low scoring game. Boston finally evens it with a floater by Smart at 9:15. Barton is playing spirited D as he has for the most part, all season. The entire starting five is in fact and they seem to be hyper-focused on that end.

The score is 9-2 Denver, at the time of the first break, 7:06. The lead is five as we reach the half-way point. Jamal is 2-2 from downtown and the lead is eight at 4:38. The lead is 10 for Denver as the subs ready themselves to enter at the scorers table, at 2:40. The team is firing on all cylinders and the lead is 14 with the subs still waiting to enter. There is finally a whistle at 1:29. The starters did their job, now it's time for the bench to take over as they have a decided edge on paper, over the C's bench. Every starter for the Nuggets have contributed no fewer than four points thus-far. Juancho/Plumlee/Grant are in at this time and Jamal/Will remain in to close out the period.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +12 as they lead 27-13 after one. Denver holds the Celtics to just 13 first quarter points.

Qtr2- The first quarter line for Joker: 4/8/3, a 3D pace. A freshly shaven MPJ is in to open the second, along with Monte. MPJ is the 6'10 SG in this unit, which averages roughly 12 feet tall. He has three early rebounds and the size discrepancy is really showing in the board ratio (22/8 in favor of the Nuggets.) Kanter however is starting to stem that particular tide and the lead is 15 at 8:15. Grant pushes it to 17 on a paint three form Mason at 7:12. Boston just has no answer for the intensity and focus being displayed by Denver and the lead is still 17 at the time of the first break, 6:50. Three of the five starters for Boston are in at this time to face off against the second unit for Denver. Murray is in for Morris at 6:20, leading by 15. The Nuggets have yet to shoot a free throw. Jokic/Barton are next to re-enter at 5:59, still up by 15. Boston is starting to attack the rim and have it down to 11 by virtue of a 6-0 run, as Denver is settling for long jumpers on the other end. Boston has committed exactly two personal fouls as they play with 5:24 remaining. The Nuggets are failing to move without the ball and the result as usual, is outside looks. Millsap is back in and the starters are in tact at 4:24, leading now by nine.

Boston has all of the momentum and it's a direct result of offensive ineptitude by Denver, not lack of defensive effort. Murray is really struggling to find Jokic in the P&R. Walker goes down in a heap after an ugly collision with his teammate Ojeleye and you hate to see that. He didn't go limp so it doesn't appear to be a major injury but I'd be surprised if he's able to return to this one. As for the game, this is normally when a team with talent rallies around it's fallen star and with the way they'd secured momentum prior to the injury, I'm nervous as to the outcome tonight for the Nuggets. Walker is leaving on a stretcher in front of a shocked crowd in Denver. Boston has cut it to six on the strength of an 11-0 run as we await the games resumption. The Pepsi Center faithful give a warm round of applause for Kemba as Walker is carted off, following a roughly 12 minute delay. Tatum launches two straight airballs from three and the lead is eight for Denver at 2:08. The bevvy of turnovers for Denver, seem to be a direct result of a lack of movement, both with and without the ball. They have 10 turnovers and have still yet to take a free throw, as the half comes to a close on a buzzer beating three by Barton.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +17 as they lead 45-34 at the half.

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Qtr3- The next semi-respectable "musical artist" to "perform" at halftime on a Friday night game, will be the first since the Nuggets started this campaign last year. This town has a rich and vibrant underground music scene and I wish they'd tap into that rather than throw 3Lau out there to press buttons and mime along to someone else's music, or retreads like 3-Oh-3 to... whatever it is they did. Back to the matter at hand, Jokic and Barton are first to reach double digits for Denver as they get under way in the third. I admire that the Celtics take it to the rack when the shots aren't falling and I wish Denver would do that more frequently. Denver steals the first two possessions from Boston and they appear to have re-calibrated. Jokic has a 2D with 10/10/4 and the lead is 12 at 10:32. Murray makes three in double digits for Denver. Jokic finally shoots Denver's first two free throws at 9:36 and the lead is 15. Barton blows by Tatum and the lead is 17 at 8:31.Official word on Kemba is a concussion which in this case is actually fantastic news, compared to what could have been. Outstanding!

Barton has his fourth foul as the Nuggets lead by 15 at 7:51. He remains in for now. Murray is STILL struggling to get the ball to Joker in the P&R. Harris looks to have possibly FINALLY solved his floater issue and the lead is 19 at 6:17. Juancho is in for Barton at this time. Jokic likely won't play in the fourth quarter tonight with the score being what it is but if he does he'll most likely earn another 3D. He currently sits at 12/13/6 with 5:28 remaining. Did I just dial up another run by Boston? Grant is in for the good guys at 3:27, leading by 19. No players for Boston have reached double digits tonight with 2:08 to go and Denver still leading by 19. Murray goes down with a knee injury and he limps off gingerly. This doesn't appear to be serious. MPJ checks in at this point. He quickly drills his first three of his young and promising career. Check that, they called it a two. Morris is in for Murray and Big Honey is the only remaining starter, as Boston has cut it to 11 on three straight outside jumpers. MPJ closes out the period with a nice tip-dunk.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +29 as they lead 70-57 after three.

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Qtr4- The likely final line for Jokic: 16/14/7. The second unit for Denver is out there to open the fourth period. Boston finally has a player in double digits; Brown. Malone is irate as the second unit is stepping off the pedal a bit and he calls a timeout at 10:36, leading by 11. This comes as Plumlee steps out of bounds while setting his feet for what appeared to be a pending corner-three. I'd be fuming as well. Denver is two for their last 11 FG attempts as Boston cuts it to nine at 10:15. Barton checks in for MPJ at 10:05. Juancho with a good looking, spinning-floater and the lead is 11 at 8:51. A Splendid Spanish Spinner says Hastings. Barton is now running the point for Denver, along with the second unit minus MPJ. Boston is clutching and grabbing on every possession for Denver and why not, if the refs are going to allow it? Murray is back in at 9:15, up by nine. Harris returns at 8:09, leading by 10. 'Sap/Jokic return and the starting five is in tact at 7:05, leading by eight. Denver is back to standing, resulting in long J's and turnovers and the lead is down to six at 6:20. The refs have absolutely swallowed their whistle and the numerous transplants are erupting in the stands. Evidently, Boston is a great place to be... from. Jokic in particular appears to be rusty after sitting on the bench for nearly 1/2 an hour of real time. The lead is down to two at 5:34. Boston is in the bonus the rest of the way. They've shot 24 free throws. Denver has shot four.

Boston cuts it to one on a layup by Brown. Jokic FINALLY earns a trip to the charity stripe and he drains two. The lead is three with 4:11 to play. Boston cuts it to one on a goal-tend by 'Sap. Paul stretches the lead to four with an &-1. A three by Tatum cuts it to one again. Jokic is one assist shy of a 3D and the lead is one at 2:15. 'Sap makes four in double digits for Denver. A long J by Murray and the lead is five for the Nuggets with one minute remaining. Brown scores on a layup and it's down to three with under a minute to play. Murray to Millsap for a corner three and the lead is four. 'Sap is clutch once again and he's earned a 2D with a line of 14/10/2. He's the third best three point shooter in the NBA thus-far. Boston has the ball with 39 seconds to go and Denver allows another corner three. The lead is three and Murray takes his turn to hit a clutch three and in so doing, has earned a 3D for Big Honey, tying the great Celtic John Havlicek on the all-time 3D list. The lead is five and the out of bounds play is being reviewed by request of Malone. It's determined to be Boston's ball with seven seconds to go and trailing by five. Brown gets an easy two on a well designed ATO/OBP. The ball is inbounded to Harris who is fouled with four seconds to go. He makes one of two and Boston boards & calls a time out with just under four seconds to play. DO NOT FOUL! Smart scores another easy layup on yet another well designed ATO/OBP and the lead is two. Murray is fouled with under two seconds to go. He drills them both and that's a wrap. It's also roughly the fifth time I've typed, "that's a wrap."

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +31 as they win by a final score of 96-92

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Final Thoughts:

• Nothing but positivity and well-wishes for Kemba Walker.
  
• Props to Boston. They are a good team with no quit in them.
  
• Having said that, take that L on your way out, transplants.
  
• "Envy is the bond between the hopeful and the damned."
• Important win, all things considered.
  
• Brad Stevens is a VERY impressive young coach.
  

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THE NUGGETS WIN!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.
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