The good guys

Their adversaries

Nuggets vs Houston I: "Chuck, flop, score at the line. I'm so impressed"

When last these two teams squared off in game 74 of last season, the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from just one player Nikola Jokic: +19. Five players for Denver scored in the red, led by Malik Beasley: / Will Barton: -4 as the Nuggets lost big, 85-112

In that game, The Rockets trailed by as many as seven in the first quarter, but built a 62-44 lead at halftime behind a 40-point second quarter. Houston was up by 22 at the start of the fourth and a 5-0 run, with a 3 from Harden, made it 102-78 with five minutes remaining. D'Antoni cleared the bench with 3 1/2 to go after the Rockets extended that run to 10-0, with another 3-pointer from Harden, who never sits during blowouts, instead chucking as much as usual to pad his meaningless statistics. (per ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game,

Seriously? This guy again?

Also, where's your originality?

I was banned from FTS for POLITELY posting a link to my piece after the second encounter last year, a Nuggets victory, as I do each and every game in the home and visiting threads win lose or draw. This is apparently something they are only ok with following victories for Houston. Sure, if you read said piece (linked here) I pulled no punches in my distaste for the way Harden games the system but nothing I stated (it was something along the lines of "Good game... high five" along with my link) at FTS was in violation of their terms of service, so clearly their fan-base is becoming aware of what the rest of the league already knows: Theirs is an ugly brand of basketball, despised by all non-casual NBA fans who don't follow the Rockets and it will be legislated out of existence in one to two season's time, so enjoy your regular season semi-successes of these past two seasons rocket-man. As Koz might say, it's ova!

________________________________________________________________________________

Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• HOU gives up 113.7 by their opponents on average, to Denver's 102.9

• HOU averages 119.5 PPG offensively to Denver's 106.9

• This results in a net rating for HOU of +5.8 and +4.0 for Denver

• HOU is 5-2 away from home while Denver is 4-2 from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, HOU is 8-0 to Denver's 5-2 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference is as much if not more than ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver is in third place in the Western Conference standings, 2 games out, while HOU is currently in second place in the Western Conference, 1 game out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

HOU: RPG 47.4 APG 21.1 SPG 8.3 BPG 5.6 FG% 44.2 3% 34.1 FT% 78.5

DEN: RPG 46.3 APG 25.8 SPG 7.7 BPG 5.3 FG% 44.0 3% 36.1 FT% 75.1

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, fuck James Harden.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 106.9 - HOU 39.2

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

(leaving this up despite the expert tank-job being exhibited by the Warriors. Clearly Dallas is now a playoff team.)

______________________________________________________________________________________________

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Houston Rockets Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Clint "Ah" Capela 15	C	25	6' 10"	240 lbs	--	$14,896,552
	Tyson "The Beard" Chandler 19	C	37	7' 0"	235 lbs	--	$1,620,564
	"Guitarrin" Gary Clark 6	PF	25	6' 6"	225 lbs	Cincinnati	$1,416,852
	Chris "Sabathia" Clemons 3	PG	22	5' 9"	180 lbs	Campbell	--
	Michael "Clyde" Frazier 21	SG	25	6' 3"	200 lbs	Florida	$1,416,852
	Eric "Splash" Gordon10	SG	30	6' 3"	215 lbs	Indiana	$14,057,730
	Gerald "Make A Wish" Green 14	SG	33	6' 6"	205 lbs	--	$1,620,564
	James "Professional Free-Thrower" Harden 13	PG	30	6' 5"	220 lbs	Arizona State	$38,199,000
	Isaiah "Zeke" Hartenstein 55	C	21	7' 0"	250 lbs	--	$1,416,852
	Nene 42	C	37	6' 11"	250 lbs	--	$2,564,753
	Danuel "SP? #4" House Jr. 4	SF	26	6' 6"	220 lbs	Texas A&M	$3,540,000
	"Tag Poppin" Ben McLemore 16	SG	26	6' 3"	195 lbs	Kansas	$5,460,000
	Austin "The Endless" Rivers 25	PG	27	6' 3"	200 lbs	Duke	$2,147,317
	Thabo "The Swiss Army Spork" Sefolosha 18	SF	35	6' 6"	215 lbs	--	$1,620,564
	PJ "Bad Mother" Tucker 17	PF	34	6' 5"	245 lbs	Texas	$8,349,039
	Russell "Rocky Horror" Westbrook 0	PG	31	6' 3"	200 lbs	UCLA	$38,506,482

Update: Cancar has been assigned to the G-league affiliate for the Hawks. Bol and Dozier are on G-League assignment with the Bulls affiliate. As for Houston, Nene is out with a hip injury, Green with a foot injury and Gordon out with a knee injury.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Data:

TPM™ Game 13 HOU (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +34

Jamal Murray: +15

Gary Harris: +15

Paul Millsap: +22

Will Barton: +14

Monte Morris: +10

Malik Beasley: N/A

Torrey Craig: +9

Jerami Grant: +7

Mason Plumlee: +6

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Juancho Hernangomez: -3

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 13 games +297

Jamal Murray : 13 games +286

Gary Harris: 13 games +166

Paul Millsap: 13 games +160

Will Barton: 11 games +139

Monte Morris: 13 games +119

Malik Beasley: 10 games +19

Torrey Craig: 12 games +14

Jerami Grant: 13 games +126

Mason Plumlee: 13 games +73

Michael Porter Jr.: 8 games +20

Juancho Hernangomez: 6 games +19

Jared Vanderbilt: 3 games +1

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 1 games -3

PJ Dozier: N/A

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +22.85

Jamal Murray: +22.00

Gary Harris: +12.77

Paul Millsap: +12.31

Will Barton: +12.64

Monte Morris: +9.15

Malik Beasley: +1.90

Torrey Craig: +1.17

Jerami Grant: +9.69

Mason Plumlee: +5.62

Michael Porter Jr.: +2.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +3.17

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0.33

Bol Bol: 0 games N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games -3.00

PJ Dozier: 0 games N/A

__________________________________________________________________________________________

TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 12:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Rockets counter with Harden, Westbrook, House, Tucker & Capella. Murray gets the scoring underway from downtown. Denver leads 7-0 at 10:30. Capella finally scores for Houston at 10:05. The Nuggets are getting careless with the ball and Houston leads by one at the time of the first break, 8:32 Five straight for Harden, the lead is six on the strength of a 13-0 run by the Rockets and Denver is forced to take yet another timeout at 7:41. Denver finally registers their first assist and the lead is four at 6:45.

Harden whacks 'Sap in the face in a mismatch in the post. Miraculously, he's called for it. Denver ties it up on a pulling-guard layup by Barton, trailing Big Honey. The offense is starting to click and with it, the defensive intensity for Denver who now lead by seven, on the strength of their own 13-0 run, forcing Pringles to call a timeout at 3:45. Grant is first off the pine for Denver at this point. Harden hooks Jokic, throwing the ball out of bounds and earning a foul against Jokic. Morris is next in for Denver, followed soon-after by Plumlee and Juancho. Harris is the lone remaining starter. Craig is in for him with just over two minutes remaining and a seven point lead. Only three players have scored for the Rockets and they are exactly who you think they are.

Denver is paced in TPM by Gary Harris: +10 as they lead 27-22 after one.

Qtr2- The Rockets are just 1-8 thus-far from distance. Jinx, someone with a lot of hair that I've never heard of drills one. Denver needs to start boxing out on the defensive glass. Craig has blocked Russ twice, including an impressive chase-down block. Westbrook cuts it to one from the charity stripe at 9:23. Beautiful lefty tip-dunk for Juancho. Russ airballs a three with Torey defending. Harden enters at 8:15, trailing by five. Torrey has been very good tonight and this is precisely the sort of situational deployment in which he's most valuable. Murray and Jokic return at 7:12, up by five. Harden is called for his second careless flail to an opponent's face, this one to Juancho. His previous foul has mysteriously evaporated from the official scoring numbers so it's just his first. Check that, it re-appeared, following Wes Unseld's trip to the scoring table. Nothing suspicious there. So much for home court advantage. Get it together guys. It's hard telling who is on the take with both Harden and Rodney Tap-dancing Mott in town.

'Sap enters at 6:01 with a six point lead and the starters are in tact for the Nuggets. Harden elbows Barton in the back of the head on a drive and somehow Barton is called for a foul. Harden then slaps 'Sap YET again in the face and there is no foul. He's absolutely out of control with his flailing hands and sharp elbows on drives. Denver leads by ten as Harden is awarded his first trio of bullshit free-throws on the night, vs Millsap. This is his idea of a momentum change Rockets fans. You like this Diane with an X? Of course you don't, you're just "contractually obligated" to pretend as if you do, vehemently so, as if you were being paid for it. Big Honey is first to reach double digits for Denver, who lead by seven at 2:00. The Rockets are just 2-13 from distance and they still refuse to pass the ball around the horn, looking for better offense. Houston is in the bonus and Russ cuts it to five with 1:55 to go. Harden fouls Murray twice on one play: No call. Phantom calls against Denver meanwhile, are keeping the Rockets in the game and the lead is six at 1:04. Harden sticks a three following a missed layup by Murray (one of far too many for Denver) and that's it for the first half.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +15 as they lead 54-51 at the half.

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr3- The free throw attempt discrepancy currently stands at 15-5 despite Denver constantly attacking the rim and Houston living on the perimeter. Harris gets the scoring under way from downtown. Murray is struggling to defend Russ tonight. The Nuggets lead by three at the time of the first break, 10:07. Every 50-50 decision in terms of foul calls has gone in favor of Houston tonight. Harris and Barton make three in double digits for Denver. 'Sap slaps back and Harden has actually earned his first legitimate foul against. Murray finally makes a layup on his most difficult attempt of the night. Rivers checks in and this is where Denver must take over. Austin was a -10 plus/minus in the first half.

Millsap rejects the fuck out of a Harden attempt and the lead is eight for the good guys at 6:29. I wonder how many of the Sizzlin' Seniors were formerly Splendid Serbian Hookers. The Nuggets lead by eight at 5:12. Denver has seized momentum since Rivers entered, as prescribed by Dr Patrick and they lead by 13 at 3:58. Harden takes a swipe at Grant's arms with each hand once, before being awarded a jump ball instead of foul. Unbelievable! Denver leads by nine at 2:25. Murray makes four in double digits for Denver. As with the first half, Harris is the last remaining starter in for the Nuggets. Murray joins him at 1:45, up by eight. Rebounding bricks and scoring freebies from the highly charitable stripe are keeping this game within striking range for Houston.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +29 as they lead 82-73 after three.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr4- The second unit for Denver is out there to open the fourth as Harden takes a seat. Juancho's perimeter D has regressed to the Juancho of old tonight but he's been good on the glass. Denver leads by 12 as Harden is already getting set to check in at 10:03. Grant is taking some questionable shots as he's guarded by his former OKC teammate in Westbrook but Denver still leads by 12 at 8:11, flowing a steal by Craig on Harden, leading to a 360 dunk by Torrey, Mason then blocks Capella, leading to a fast break layup by Morris and Denver leads by 14 at 8:03, despite the starting five still sitting on the bench and Houston's starting five minus the injured House, all on the court. Murray is first of the starters to re-enter at this time. Harden kicks out his leg and flails his elbow, again striking a Denver defender (Craig) in the head and leg respectively. He's awarded three bullshit free throws but it's being challenged, rightly so. The officials somehow assert that it's a natural shooting motion to do BOTH of these illegal actions and the play stands as called. Gaslit much? Yes Craig was in his landing area. Harden was MORE in Craig's defending area due to his unnatural forward kick. James agrees that it was BS and makes only 1-3 as penance. The lead is 13 at 6:41.

Juancho makes it 14 from the line at 6:12, as Jokic enters along with Millsap.Time for Harden to resort to foul seeking and he's of course awarded, erroneously, on one such drive on 'Sap. Harris is in at 6:02, leading by 12. Capella blatantly travels in the open court and no call. Craig once again rejects Russ at the rim. Real Estate much? Denver leads by 14 at 4:40 as Millsap makes five in double digits for Denver. Harden is FINALLY called for being a splendid hooker on offense. On the very next play he does it on the other end and they call it on Jokic! Harden should have three intentional and five standard fouls on top of them but instead he has just three standard fouls against. The refs are putrid at the moment but it's still a 14 point lead with 3:35 remaining, despite the Nuggets playing one vs eight all night long. Harden gets a charging foul of all things vs Jokic, perhaps the first such call ever for each of them. Jokic has a 2D line of 24/10/3. The lead for Denver is 18 at 2:38 and fuck James Harden. Murray has a career high six steals. Would you look at that? Houston CAN banch their starters in blowouts but ONLY when they are the recipient of the beat-down. Seriously, eat shit Pringlapologists. It's all over but the end credits and the prevent defense.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +34 as they win by a final score of 105-95

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Final Thoughts:

• Say it with me now. FUCK... JAMES... HARDEN!
• Say it with me now. FUCK... COACH... PRINGLES!
• Denver is the first team to hold Houston under 100 points for the game, this season.
  
• Hell of a game for Torrey Craig
• Hey Diane with an X, why don't you whine about Jokic whining some more while turning a blind eye to whiner-in-chief Harden. Or you can keep whining about lack of defensive three second calls of all things, on Denver when Harden has yet to exit the paint defensively as I type, post game. Seriously, your mods need mods TDS.
  

__________________________________________________________________________________________

THE NUGGETS WIN!

__________________________________________________________________________________________

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

Denver Nuggets Rockets vs Nuggets coverage The Dream Shake