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Their adversaries

Nuggets vs Magic I: "No offense, but...there is still no offense"

When last these two teams squared off in game 24 of last season the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players, led by Jamal Murray: +39. Only two players for the Denver Nuggets scored in the red, led by Torrey Craig: -11 as Denver won yet another battle of attrition by a final score of 124-118.

In that game, Jamal Murray scored 31 points and the Nuggets shut down the Magic in overtime for their seventh straight victory. "We didn't play our best, but they played really good," said Murray, who also had eight assists. "They had a great game and they're a really underrated team, especially at home. They were making a lot of shots, more than we expected. It seemed like everybody was hitting." (per ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, Jokic doesn't seem right and whatever it is that is bothering him, be it an injury, off-court issues, illness or simply complacency, I hope by now he realizes that this Denver team is rather average without him playing near his peak potential. Thus is the nature of the NBA where the team fortunes largely rest on the performance of elite individuals, especially one who is the axis upon which the entire offense rotates.

Conversely, the Magic are a rarity in the league in that they are a very team-oriented attack. Vooch is unquestionably their best player but definitely not a superstar and the drop-off between him and guys like Gordon and Isaac is not a large one. For Orlando, there are many different players, (including Fournier and Ross) who can kill you on any given night. They are assembled in a very similar fashion to the way the Nuggets were constructed in the post-Melo/pre-Jokic era.

Isaac has been their Jamal Murray in terms of expectations, not -yet realized. I know because every year I retain him in my keeper fantasy league, every year Yahoo ranks him so impossibly high that I find it hard not to and every year he's failed to live up to the hype. This season for both players however seems to be the turning point. Murray isn't waiting for December to start playing efficient ball and Isaac is starting to finally add offensive tools to his massive defensive tool box. He would look incredible in a Nuggets uni, as a backup to MPJ in the coming years. Make it so TC! By all accounts Orlando has no designs to part company with him but a guy can dream.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• ORL gives up 99.6 by their opponents on average, to Denver's 106.4

• ORL averages 94.8 PPG offensively to Denver's 106.0

• This results in a net rating for ORL of -4.8 and -0.4 for Denver

• ORL is 2-1 at home while Denver is 2-1 away from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, ORL is 2-3 to Denver's 3-2 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference is as much if not more than ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver is tied with four other teams for sixth place in the Western Conference standings, 1.5 games ahead of three more, and 1 game out of first place while ORL currently tied with four other teams for fourth place in the Eastern Conference, 2.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

ORL: RPG 46.2 APG 21.2 SPG 8.4 BPG 5.2 FG% 39.1 3% 29.6 FT% 76.1

DEN: RPG 45.8 APG 22.4 SPG 7.4 BPG 5.0 FG% 42.6 3% 34.6 FT% 82.3

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, Orlando is a young, athletic and extremely long team that despite a slow pace and emphasis on defense, can get after it defensively (in areas) causing turnovers and run teams into the ground (in spurts) which is exactly the type of team Denver does not want to face right now, with the listless effort and stuck-in-the-mud offense they've been displaying lately, so it could actually lead to a B2B blowout if they are not careful. Ultimately, this Nuggets era is marked by close victories so that's what I'm dialing up tonight. Orlando can't hit the broad side of a barn in terms of shooting but that was also the case last year and Fournier/Ross and indeed everyone on their team, couldn't seem to miss last time they faced off.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 101 - Orlando 99

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Orlando Magic Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Al-Farouq Aminu2	PF	29	6' 8"	220 lbs	Wake Forest	$9,258,000
	D.J. "Caesar" Augustin 14	PG	31	5' 11"	183 lbs	Texas	$7,250,000
	Mo "Una Poca De Gracia" Bamba 5	C	21	7' 0"	241 lbs	Texas	$5,697,600
	Khem "Hazmat" Birch 24	C	27	6' 9"	233 lbs	UNLV	$3,000,000
	Michael Carter-Williams "From The Island Of The Three Named People" 7	PG	28	6' 5"	190 lbs	Syracuse	$1,620,564
	Evan "Never Google" Fournier 10	SG	27	6' 7"	205 lbs	--	$17,150,000
	Melvin "Clyde" Frazier Jr. 35	SG	23	6' 5"	201 lbs	Tulane	$1,416,852
	Markelle "Nuts & Bolts"Fultz 20	PG	21	6' 3"	200 lbs	Washington	$9,745,200
	Aaron "Crash" Gordon 00	PF	24	6' 8"	220 lbs	Arizona	$19,863,636
	Jonathan "Biblical" Isaac 1	PF	22	6' 11"	210 lbs	Florida State	$5,806,440
	Wes Iwundu "When I'll Get To Play" 25	SF	24	6' 6"	195 lbs	Kansas State	$1,618,420
	Amile "Star Ship" Jefferson 11	PF	26	6' 9"	222 lbs	Duke	--
	Josh "Corey" Magette 4	PG	29	6' 1"	160 lbs	Alabama-Huntsville	--
	Terrence "Bob" Ross 8	SG	28	6' 6"	206 lbs	Washington	$12,500,000
	Nikola "Vooch" Vucevic 9	C	29	6' 11"	260 lbs	USC	$28,000,000

Update: Barton is out with a toe injury. Bol and Dozier are on G-League assignment with the Bulls affiliate. As for Orlando, Michael Carter-Williams is questionable with a hip injury.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 7 ORL (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +18

Jamal Murray: +27

Gary Harris: +29

Paul Millsap: +9

Will Barton: N/A

Monte Morris: +6

Malik Beasley: -4

Torrey Craig: +6

Jerami Grant: +3

Mason Plumlee: +9

Michael Porter Jr.: -1

Juancho Hernangomez: +3

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 6 games +142

Jamal Murray : 6 games +110

Gary Harris: 6 games +89

Paul Millsap: 6 games +53

Will Barton: 4 games +52

Monte Morris: 6 games +34

Malik Beasley: 6 games +12

Torrey Craig: 6 games +3

Jerami Grant: 6 games +51

Mason Plumlee: 6 games +50

Michael Porter Jr.: 2 games +13

Juancho Hernangomez: 2 games +1

Jared Vanderbilt: 1 games +3

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 1 games -3

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +23.67

Jamal Murray: +18.30

Gary Harris: +14.80

Paul Millsap: +8.83

Will Barton: +13.00

Monte Morris: +5.67

Malik Beasley: +2.00

Torrey Craig: +0.50

Jerami Grant: +8.50

Mason Plumlee: +8.33

Michael Porter Jr.: +6.5

Juancho Hernangomez: +0.50

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +3.00

Bol Bol: 0 games N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games -3.00

PJ Dozier: 0 games N/A

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 6:
*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their second iteration of the starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Craig, Millsap & Jokic. The Magic counter with Fultz, Fournier, Isaac, Gordon & Vucevic. Good to see Fultz making his first start in ages. According to Marlowe, Denver has a 6 game winning streak at stake tonight, vs Orlando. Vooch gets the scoring underway with a fall-back J. Harris is the focal point early for Denver who is down by three at 8:02. Denver trails by two at the time of the first break, 6:49. The front-court for Denver is being outplayed by their counterparts for Orlando, while the guards for Denver are getting the better of their opponents. Hastings is telling an unprefaced story about some father and son he met. Ok, Altitude TV catches up to the ramblings and shows a picture of them.

Meanwhile there is a game going on. Vooch is absolutely feasting on his friend Jokic tonight, as Orlando leads by four at 4:30. Grant/MPJ are first off the pine for the good guys at 4:17. Jamal is first to reach double digits for Denver. Jokic/Millsap/Craig have contributed a combined 0/2/1 line thus-far, with 4:03 to go. Mason is in for Jokic at 3:40. Malone has called two quick timeouts to single out MPJ for defensive mistakes. One has to wonder, why this never occurs for Craig/Beasley/Murray etc. The lead for Orlando is eight, as Morris/Beasley round out the second unit for Denver at 2:58. MPJ fails to box out, resulting in an &-1 for Gordon. Ya, his DBBIQ appears to be as bad as his OBBIQ is good. Orlando leads by 10 on the strength of a 12-2 run with 51 seconds to go. Juancho enters with seconds remaining and MPJ is in the rook-house early.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +8 as they trail 17-26 after one

Qtr2- "Most of all you've got to hide it from the kids." Sorry, daydreaming a bit, as are the Nuggets. Mrs Robinson is in my head. I've had far worse. Three straight turnovers to open the second for the Nuggets and they trail by 12 at 10:45. Beasley is 0-2 from distance tonight. Denver as a team is 2-9 from beyond the arc. Only four players for the Nuggets have even scored and only Murray has more than four points at 9:33, trailing by 11. Juancho sticks a three; hopefully that can stem the tide. Orlando's bench unit seems sub-optimal. Monte cuts it to six with two from the charity stripe. Orlando has nine assists to Denver's TWO so far, as the starters begin to filter in, trailing by 11. Plumlee sits with three fouls. Juancho/Grant remain in for Craig/Millsap which is a move I like. Jokic sticks a three to get into the column of contributors. Grant cuts it to six after a nice feed by Murray, resulting in a layup at 6:38. Millsap enters for Juancho at this point which leaves Grant playing the three which I also like.

Jerami can only serve as a floor spacer with any regularity, when playing alongside the starters. Bamba has three fouls for Orlando. Craig is in for Grant, trailing by four at 5:05. Often times I think Malone falls into the trap of mistaking effort for execution. Torrey has yet to contribute in any statistical way and has been trailing his man on D consistently, all season. Reading right along, he executes a brilliant block of a Fournier jumper. Clifford is challenging a foul call against Vooch at 4:19, leading by four. Denied! 'Sap heads to the line for two, where he converts both, cutting the lead to two. Any day now Jokic. "Nuggets nation turns its lonely eyes to you." He's attempted two shots and has no rebounds and no assists, as Orlando leads by seven at 2:50. Joker finally gets his first board and first dime with under two minutes to go and the lead is down to three. Jokic finally pumps and drives vs the tight Defense, resulting in a trip to the line where he makes 1-2. Fultz gets and &-1 to close out the VERY ugly first half.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +16 as they trail 40-45 at the half.

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Qtr3- Craig is effending Gordon. Let's let that marinate for a bit. Juancho isn't much of an efender but at least he's more than 6'5. Two straight from downtown for Big Honey and the lead is four. He's the second in double digits for Denver. He finally sets foot in the paint, scores easily as a result and the lead is down to two for Orlando. Murray still makes one handed passes that he can't take back and they still result in turnovers, far too often. Orlando extends the lead to eight on two straight transition buckets at the time of the first break, 8:30. The Nuggets are suddenly playing with effort for the first time in several games, spearheaded by 'Sap. Murray cuts it to three with a killer crossover drive at 6:30. Over the course of he previous several possessions, the Nuggets showed their best ball movement in many games and it's all due to Jokic reluctantly making himself a threat to score. Murray cuts it to one on the strength of a 7-0 run, with a left handed baby hook. Craig finally scores and it's even-Steven at 4:59.

Correction, he misses both (my view was obstructed by my attention seeking min-pin.) Orlando is going ice cold and Grant is in for 'Sap at 4:12, trailing by one. Craig is going back to the line and I'm not typing anything... my powers of reverse jinx result in a one point lead for Denver, their first, as MPJ readies himself to enter at 3:36. Denver is tightening the screws defensively. The Nuggets lead by three on the strength of a 13-2 run at 3:15. Denver is now LIVING (l-i-v-i-n) in the paint. Big Honey earns a well deserved rest at 2:34, leading by four. Plumlee nabs his 4th foul as the bench unit is in tact at 1:45, up by four. It often amazes me just how rapidly Malik can lose his man in a switch, defensively. Bamba gets his fifth foul, putting Denver in the bonus and sending Plumlee to the line, where he of course sticks 'em both. Plumlee earns HIS fifth on the next play, a careless reach by Mason. He's replaced by Juancho, moving Grant to the five. Bamba fouls out on a drive by Monte with 29 seconds to go. Denver closes on a 19-5 run.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jamal Murray: +23 as they lead 69-63 after three.

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Qtr4- The two squads are doing us all a solid with an uptick in (actual) pace, which means we won't miss much of the AVS game. Plumlee remains in with five fouls to start the fourth, up by six. Malik is 0-7, including 0-3 from beyond the arc. Orlando scores the first four points, cutting it to two at 10:45, prior to a paint-three from Plumlee to Morris. Monte makes three in double digits for Denver. He's having perhaps his best game of the year, as he takes a charge on Aminu at 9:25, leading by five. Beasley finally sticks one from downtown and it's an eight point lead. Plumlee is forced into an air-balled three, after Malik wasted clock playing hero ball. Beasley is replaced by Harris, leading by six at 7:45. Two straight empty possessions prompt Malone to get the starters set to check in but fortunately, Orlando is still cold. A three by Ross forces Denver's hand and Malone calls a timeout at 6:20, up by just one. The starting five is in tact for the good guys at this time, following the commercial break. The Nuggets are shooting just 34% from the floor, 33% from three and 73% from the line.

Orlando is on a 7-0 run prior to a floater by Gary, who makes four in double digits for Denver. The lead for the Nuggets is three as Orlando calls a timeout at 4:02. Denver has only 12 total assists and no one player has more than three. Vooch ties it up on a three, following a scramble at mid-court. I want to make a Magic: The Gathering joke here, but I'll refrain. Harris hits 1-2 at the line and the lead for Denver is one at 3:21. Wow, this song for a Vanguard commercial may be the worst pop-tripe I've ever heard. Hastings meanwhile recently saw Tool?!?!?! Neither team seems to want this one and are both being careless with the ball and taking horrendous shots. Jokic for example, makes a CRAZY one legged turnaround on the baseline that no one thought for even a second, would do anything but tickle the twine, at the end of the shot clock. I feel comfortable speaking for everyone on that one. Denver leads by five with 1:24 remaining. Orlando is called for a screening foul that sent Harris reeling to the floor with 52 seconds to go and the Nuggets leading by three. Murray drives for an emphatic, dagger dunk and that should just about seal it. There is some back and forth that as it turns out is not worthy of discussion. Nothing is easy this year.

Denver is paced in TPM by Gary Harris: +29 as they steal one on the road, 91-87.

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Final Thoughts:

• Coo coo cachoo.
• Hurry back Barton. The Nuggets need your presence in the starting five, badly.
  
• Pretty important W, all things considered.
  
• Great to see Murray/Harris come to play and dominate against their opposing back-court.
  
• Was it just me or was Big Honey doing a ton of "spite-hoisting" tonight? It's becoming an annual rite of passage in November, it seems.
• This win makes seven consecutive for the Nuggets vs the Magic.
  

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The Nuggets Win!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

Denver Nuggets Nuggets vs Magic coverage Orlando Pinstriped Post