The good guys

Their adversaries

Nuggets vs Grizzlies I: "Comeback Schmumback!"

When last these two teams squared off in game 49 of last season, the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players, led by Nikola Jokic: +19. Five players for Denver scored in the red, led by Trey Lyles: -7 as the Nuggets rallied for what was at the time, tied for the best second half comeback in team history, to win by a score of 95-92, in thrilling fashion. This record was surpassed in terms of fourth quarter margin, three games ago when the Nuggets came back from 21 down in the fourth quarter to beat the Sixers, on an "only Jokic" fade-away-J over Embiid, also in thrilling fashion. The last Memphis game was perhaps more memorable, despite the lack of relative suddenness however.

In that game, Jokic scored 24 points and made a go-ahead hook shot with 28.9 seconds left, and the Nuggets overcame a 25-point second-half deficit, to beat the Memphis Grizzlies 95-92. "We just didn't give up," Jokic said, adding: "That says something about the team. We don't want to quit. We were fighting." The Nuggets trailed 77-60 entering the fourth period. That 17-point deficit was the second-largest (at the time) fourth-quarter deficit the team has come back from in franchise history. By overcoming a 19-point halftime deficit, the Nuggets matched the greatest comeback in franchise history (set in 1981). Overall, NBA teams leading by 25 or more in the second half had been 174-0 this season - before that game. The since-departed Marc Gasol led Memphis with 28 points and nine rebounds and Mike Conley had 23 points and 11 assists. The 25 points marked the largest regular-season blown lead ever, for the Grizzlies. Denver had scored over 70 points in the first half of their two previous games, before this particular evening; a far cry from anything this season's Nuggets have accomplished offensively. (per ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, Memphis is in full-on rebuild mode, focusing on the duo of Jaren Jackson Jr. and rookie sensation Ja Morant. While it's too early to call it a sophomore slump, JJJ hasn't taken the giant leap that many (including myself) predicted would occur but the season is young and he's incredibly talented and well... young. He can do it all and eventually he will as a rare, two way player in this league. Morant on the other hand has perhaps exceeded early expectations, especially in terms of shooting. The chasm between low-level college ball and the NBA hasn't been much of an obstacle for this particular rookie.

Perusing their roster and statistical data makes it very tempting to put to print something along the lines of "but that's where the talent ends" or "they really lack any notable NBA players beyond the two young studs". I won't do that of course because previously, the Dillon Brooks' and Slow-Mo Anderson's of the world would in turn, torch the Nuggets for 40. Nope. Not gonna go it. Nah... gaaaah daaah.

Tonight's in-game contribution will be data only, as I'd like to pay closer attention to some of the Nuggets tendencies of theory, in order to better inform my analysis in coming pieces. The last one was quite illuminating actually. I also need to pare down my loquaciousness, as its not always appreciated. The in-game analysis will return for the following game.

________________________________________________________________________________

Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• MEM gives up 117.8 by their opponents on average, to Denver's 101.9

• MEM averages 109.8 PPG offensively to Denver's 104.7

• This results in a net rating for MEM of -8.0 and +2.8 for Denver

• MEM is 3-4 from home while Denver is 4-1 away from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, MEM is 3-4 to Denver's 4-2 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference is as much if not more than ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver is in third place in the Western Conference standings, 1.5 games out, while MEM is currently tied with OKC for 9th place in the Western Conference, 5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

MEM: RPG 45.8 APG 26.8 SPG 8.1 BPG 5.8 FG% 46.0 3% 33.0 FT% 76.8

DEN: RPG 47.0 APG 24.8 SPG 7.5 BPG 4.9 FG% 43.0 3% 34.1 FT% 76.1

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, Denver is facing the possibility of losing Barton, who's played like 2017-Will this season, to a similar abductor injury which made him miss a large chunk of last season and made him a shell of himself upon returning. At the time of writing (9 pm MDT Saturday) it is unknown how serious the injury is this time around. What is known is that this is a homecoming for The People's Champion, so you just know he's champing at the bit to put up big numbers but I hope he's weighing the possibility of further injury and a lost season against this and remaining wise in his assessment as a result. This one is very difficult to predict due to the variables surrounding Will Barton.

Memphis has a very good record all things considered, in the competitive West and there is no evidence of tanking, which I love to see. Establishing a culture of winning with two young studs FAR outweighs the crap-shoot that is lucking into a third, via the draft. By virtue of the powerful force that is momentum, who knows? Perhaps a Brandon Clarke for example, becomes that third guy and then not only is the team on the right path but you still have that late lottery or possibly late playoff-area draft pick to go for the best talent available.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 115 - MEM 99

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

(leaving this up despite the expert tank-job being exhibited by the Warriors. Clearly Dallas is now a playoff team.)

______________________________________________________________________________________________

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Memphis Grizzlies Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Grayson "Trip" Allen 3	SG	24	6' 4"	198 lbs	Duke	$2,429,400
	"Slow-Mo" Kyle Anderson 1	SF	26	6' 9"	230 lbs	UCLA	$9,073,050
	Dillon "The Chillin' Villain" Brooks 24	SG	23	6' 7"	225 lbs	Oregon	$1,618,520
	Bruno "Mercury" Caboclo 5	SF	24	6' 9"	218 lbs	--	$1,845,301
	Brandon "Meadowlark" Clarke 15	SF	23	6' 8"	215 lbs	Gonzaga	$2,478,840
	Jae "Christ, Is There Anyone On This Team Left Over From Last Season" Crowder 99	SF	29	6' 6"	235 lbs	Marquette	$7,815,533
	Marko "Dan" Guduric 23	SG	24	6' 6"	201 lbs	--	$2,625,000
	Solomon "Grundy" Hill 44	SF	28	6' 6"	226 lbs	Arizona	$12,758,781
	Andre The Mole" Iguodala 9	SG	35	6' 6"	215 lbs	Arizona	$17,185,185
	Josh "Double J" Jackson 20	SG	22	6' 8"	207 lbs	Kansas	$7,059,480
	Jaren "Triple J" Jackson Jr. 13	PF	20	6' 11"	242 lbs	Michigan State	$6,927,480
	Tyus "Edney" Jones 21	PG	23	6' 0"	196 lbs	Duke	$9,258,000
	John "Vlatko" Konchar 46	SG	23	6' 5"	210 lbs	--	--
	De'Anthony "Ray" Melton 0	G	21	6' 2"	200 lbs	USC	$1,416,852
	Ja "Zesty" Morant 12	PG	20	6' 3"	174 lbs	Murray State	$8,730,240
	Jonas "Value" Valanciunas 17	C	27	6' 11"	265 lbs	--	$16,000,000
	Yuta "The Shoota" Watanabe 18	SG	25	6' 8"	215 lbs	George Washington	--

Update: Cancar has been assigned to the G-league affiliate for the Hawks. Bol and Dozier are on G-League assignment with the Bulls affiliate. Barton is questionable with a recurrence (hopefully a milder version) of an abductor injury from last season and Jamal Murray is playing through a bunion issue. As for Memphis, Allen is out with an ankle injury while The Mole is diggin' a hole.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Data:

TPM™ Game 12 MEM (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +21

Jamal Murray: +59

Gary Harris: +3

Paul Millsap: +17

Will Barton: +8

Monte Morris: +14

Malik Beasley: +5

Torrey Craig: -3

Jerami Grant: +14

Mason Plumlee: -3

Michael Porter Jr.: +9

Juancho Hernangomez: +16

Jared Vanderbilt: +0

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 12 games +263

Jamal Murray : 12 games +271

Gary Harris: 12 games +140

Paul Millsap: 12 games +138

Will Barton: 10 games +125

Monte Morris: 12 games +109

Malik Beasley: 10 games +19

Torrey Craig: 11 games +5

Jerami Grant: 12 games +119

Mason Plumlee: 12 games +67

Michael Porter Jr.: 8 games +20

Juancho Hernangomez: 5 games +22

Jared Vanderbilt: 3 games +1

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 1 games -3

PJ Dozier: N/A

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +21.92

Jamal Murray: +22.58

Gary Harris: +11.67

Paul Millsap: +11.50

Will Barton: +12.50

Monte Morris: +9.08

Malik Beasley: +1.90

Torrey Craig: +0.45

Jerami Grant: +9.92

Mason Plumlee: +5.58

Michael Porter Jr.: +2.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +4.40

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0.33

Bol Bol: 0 games N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games -3.00

PJ Dozier: 0 games N/A

__________________________________________________________________________________________

TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 12:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Grizzlies counter with

Denver is paced in TPM by as they after one.

Nikola Jokic: + Jamal Murray: + Gary Harris: + Paul Millsap: + Will Barton: + Monte Morris: + Malik Beasley: + Torrey Craig: + Jerami Grant: + Mason Plumlee: + Michael Porter Jr.: + Juancho Hernangomez: + Jared Vanderbilt: +

Qtr2- The

Denver is paced in TPM by as they at the half.

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr3- The

Denver is paced in TPM by as they after three.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr4- The

Denver is paced in TPM by as they by a final score of

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Final Thoughts:

• I'm gonna go ahead and take credit for the good guys exploding for over 70 first-half points, 72 to be exact. Check the pre-game section for the scoop.
  
• Nuggets win convincingly, 131-114.
  

__________________________________________________________________________________________

THE NUGGETS WIN!

WE SUCK AGAIN!

__________________________________________________________________________________________

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.
Denver Nuggets Nuggets vs Grizzlies coverage Grizzly Bear Blues