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Nuggets vs Nets I: "Have Fun Dammit!"

When last these two teams squared off in game 54 of last season the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from three players, led by former Net, Mason Plumlee: +24 . Three players for Denver scored in the red, led by Torrey Craig: -6 as the Nuggets lost on the road, despite a 3D from Nikola Jokic.

In that game, D'Angelo Russell had 27 points and 11 assists, making six of the Nets' 19 3-pointers, one game after they made only five as a team in their poorest shooting performance of the season. DeMarre Carroll added 18 points, 10 rebounds and six assists for Brooklyn (29-27), which got two key injured players back and snapped a three-game skid. Joe Harris scored 17 points and Treveon Graham had 16, with four 3-pointers. Nikola Jokic had 25 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists in his 10th triple-double of the season for the Nuggets. Mason Plumlee scored a season-high 24 points on 10-for-12 shooting against his former team, and Jamal Murray had 19 points and 11 assists after missing six games with a sprained left ankle. Gary Harris missed his fourth consecutive game with a strained right groin. Paul Millsap missed his second straight with right ankle soreness.

(per ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, Brooklyn is still potent even with LeVert out for what may amount to a very long time and Durant out for the year. Certainly they have more talent across the board than the Atlanta team which just embarrassed the Nuggets at home. It starts of course, with superstar PG Kyrie Irving, averaging 30/5/7 on 45/35/94 shooting splits. Robin for them has been the steadily improving CU star, Spencer Dinwiddie who is contributing 17 points on just 25 MPG. Harris, Prince Allen & Jordan round out the available impact players and Denver will have to play FOUR PERIODS with concerted effort it they expect to win, something they haven't done since game one... the effort part, not the winning, though if you listen to Stiffs for too long you might wonder. #nugglife.

Rebounding will be paramount tonight vs this excellent rebounding team from the East. When Denver has solid defensive rebounding numbers, it's usually indicative of them playing solid D and getting stops. When they have solid offensive rebounding, it's generally indicative of the ball moving, leading teams to lose track on the box out. Both have been sorely lacking this year and both are symptoms of a dearth of extended focus and especially, energy.

Tonight's game will be data only, as I'd like to pay closer attention to some of the Nuggets tendencies of theory, in order to better inform my analysis in coming pieces. I also need to pare down my loquaciousness, as its not always appreciated.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• BKN gives up 121.4 by their opponents on average, to Denver's 102.8

• BKN averages 119.2 PPG offensively to Denver's 105.1

• This results in a net rating for BKN of -2.2 and +2.3 for Denver

• BKN is 1-4 away from home while Denver is 3-2 from the un-friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, BKN is 1-2 to Denver's 4-2 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference is as much if not more than ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver is in fourth place in the Western Conference standings, 1.5 games out, while BKN is currently tied with Atlanta for 8th place in the Eastern Conference, 5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

BKN: RPG 48.6 APG 23.5 SPG 7.1 BPG 5.4 FG% 46.6 3% 37.8 FT% 73.1

DEN: RPG 45.5 APG 24.7 SPG 7.8 BPG 5.1 FG% 42.9 3% 35.8 FT% 76.7

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, Brooklyn's talent is in it's guards/small-wings and at the Center position. On paper, based upon previous seasons, Denver outclasses them overall and has an enormous advantage at the four with Millsap/Grant but only 'Sap has shown offensive efficiency thus-far. This Denver team is nearly impossible to predict this season until they show some semblance of offensive fluidity and effort on both ends but I'm required to do so.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 115 - BKN 113

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

(leaving this up despite the expert tank-job being exhibited by the Warriors. Clearly Dallas is now a playoff team.)

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Brooklyn Nets Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Jarrett Allen "Gargantuan Ginsberg" 31	C	21	6' 11"	243 lbs	Texas	$2,376,840
	Wilson "Ill-Wil" Chandler 21	SF	32	6' 8"	235 lbs	DePaul	$1,620,564
	Nicolas "Speedy" Claxton 33	PF	20	6' 11"	215 lbs	Georgia	$898,310
	Spencer "All Growed Up Goatee" Dinwiddie 8	PG	26	6' 5"	215 lbs	Colorado	$10,605,600
	Kevin "240? No Chance!" Durant 7	SF	31	6' 10"	240 lbs	Texas	$38,199,000
	Henry "Viking" Ellenson 4	PF	22	6' 10"	240 lbs	Marquette	$341,831
	Joe "Gary" Harris 12	SF	28	6' 6"	220 lbs	Virginia	$7,666,667
	Kyrie "48" Irving 11	PG	27	6' 2"	195 lbs	Duke	$31,742,000
	DeAndre "The Stroke" Jordan 6	C	31	6' 11"	265 lbs	Texas A&M	$9,881,598
	Rodions "Fallout" Kurucs 00	SF	21	6' 9"	228 lbs	--	$1,699,236
	Caris "Beuller... Beuller..." LeVert 22	SG	25	6' 6"	205 lbs	Michigan	$2,625,718
	Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot "The Original Mouthful" AKA "TLC" 15	SG	24	6' 6"	220 lbs	--	$1,544,951
	"The Unconscionable" Dzanan Musa 13	SG	20	6' 9"	217 lbs	--	$1,911,600
	David Nwaba "The Hut" 0	SG	26	6' 5"	219 lbs	Cal Poly	$1,678,854
	Theo "Huxtable" Pinson 1	SG	24	6' 5"	212 lbs	North Carolina	$1,445,697
	Taurean "Sweet" Prince 2	PF	25	6' 7"	218 lbs	Baylor	$3,481,986
	Garrett "Don't Call Me Shirley" Temple 17	SG	33	6' 5"	195 lbs	LSU	$4,767,000

Update: Cancar has been assigned to the G-league affiliate for the Hawks. Bol and Dozier are on G-League assignment with the Bulls affiliate. Grant is a game-time decision with a thumb injury, as is Beasley with an Illness and Jamal Murray is playing through a bunion issue. As for BKN, TLC and Kyrie are game-time decisions with personal and shoulder issues respectively, while LeVert is out until at least early December with a thumb injury, and Durant is out for the year with a torn Achiles Tendon.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 11 BKN (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +18

Jamal Murray: +5

Gary Harris: +14

Paul Millsap: +19

Will Barton: +2

Monte Morris: +17

Malik Beasley: N/A

Torrey Craig: N/A

Jerami Grant: +15

Mason Plumlee: +6

Michael Porter Jr.: -6

Juancho Hernangomez: +5

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 11 games +242

Jamal Murray : 11 games +212

Gary Harris: 11 games +137

Paul Millsap: 11 games +121

Will Barton: 9 games +117

Monte Morris: 11 games +95

Malik Beasley: 9 games +14

Torrey Craig: 10 games +8

Jerami Grant: 11 games +105

Mason Plumlee: 11 games +70

Michael Porter Jr.: 7 games +11

Juancho Hernangomez: 4 games +6

Jared Vanderbilt: 2 games +1

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 1 games -3

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +22.00

Jamal Murray: +19.27

Gary Harris: +12.45

Paul Millsap: +11.00

Will Barton: +13.00

Monte Morris: +8.64

Malik Beasley: +1.56

Torrey Craig: +0.80

Jerami Grant: +9.55

Mason Plumlee: +6.36

Michael Porter Jr.: +1.57

Juancho Hernangomez: +1.50

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0.33

Bol Bol: 0 games N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games -3.00

PJ Dozier: 0 games N/A

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 9:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Nets counter with Irving, Harris, Temple, Prince & Allen.

Denver is paced in TPM by as they after one.

Nikola Jokic: + Jamal Murray: + Gary Harris: + Paul Millsap: + Will Barton: + Monte Morris: + Malik Beasley: + Torrey Craig: + Jerami Grant: + Mason Plumlee: + Michael Porter Jr.: + Juancho Hernangomez: + Jared Vanderbilt: +

Qtr2- The

Denver is paced in TPM by as they at the half.

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Qtr3- The

Denver is paced in TPM by as they after three.

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Qtr4- The

Denver is paced in TPM by as they by a final score of

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Final Thoughts:

• Nuggets win 101-93
  

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THE NUGGETS WIN!

WE SUCK AGAIN!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.
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