The good guys

Their adversaries

Nuggets vs Hawks I: "Trae vs MPJ"

When last these two teams squared off in game 26 of last season the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players, led by Nikola Jokic: +24. Two players for Denver scored in the red, led by Trey Lyles: -5 as the Hawks avenged their previous blowout defeat, ten games earlier at the hands of Denver (138-93) in The Mile High City. More recently, the listless, banged up and road-weary Nuggets came up short by a final score of 106-98 in Georgia.

In that game, Collins scored a career-high 30 points and Vince Carter and DeAndre' Bembry came off the bench to fuel a third-quarter rally that helped the Hawks beat the Nuggets. Jokic had 24 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists but in closing a five-game trip with the final four games in the Eastern time zone, the injury-riddled Nuggets ran out of gas and faded while watching a 56-51 halftime lead vanish in Atlanta's 35-21 third quarter. "They came out in the third quarter and beat our butts," said Denver coach Michael Malone. "The third quarter our defense was non-existent. This was one of our worst performances of the year." Denver shot just 29.4 percent in the second half while making 15-of-51 shots. Denver went without starting forward Paul Millsap for the first time since he fractured his right big toe and guard Jamal Murray left the game when kicked in an already sore shin. Also, high-scoring guards Will Barton (right hip/core) and Gary Harris (right hip) remained sideline for Denver. (per ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, Atlanta is young (should I capitalize the Y and stop there?) athletic and talented but do not posses within their roster, many players who can shoot straight. What they do have, is future all-star PG Trae Young (good friend of MPJ) high draft pick Cam Reddish and a very high ceiling, they just aren't anywhere close to it yet. I haven't had a chance to see them play yet this season so as averse as I am to analyzing a team I've not laid eyes on, I'll attempt to dissect their tendencies as best as I can. based solely on the numbers.

Collins as we saw last season, is no slouch and Jabari Parker is having something of a rejuvenation this season statistically, that is when he's not behind any sort of line. Huerter is off to a slow start but he's the one guy Denver needs to be mindful of from beyond the arc and offensively, there is very little that Young can't do. I expect Jamal Murray to get up for this one, provided that his ankle allows it, as experience means more to PG's in the NBA than it does to any other position. Atlanta shoots a high percentage on two-point shots but doesn't score very much on whole, which given their poor outside shooting, is a good indication that they are getting a lot of good looks in close but missing the majority of thier kick-outs. This is likely due to the play-making skill set and driving ability of Young coupled with a dearth of marksmen on the perimeter. Denver needs to focus on boxing out at every possession to disallow second chance opportunities but the primary focus has to be on secondary rotations as there are very few PG's in the league who can keep Young in front of them.

I also predict Michael Porter Jr to get extended action, because while Coach Malone is not known for in-game adjustments, he's one of the better coaches in the league in terms of preparation and player management and he has to know that MPJ will get up to play against his pal, Trae. On a similar note, we all know that Atlanta is Millsap's adopted home, even though he grew up in Denver and he was an all star for many seasons in Atlanta so I'd be very surprised if he doesn't have a big night. Finally and again along the same lines, I'd not be surprised if Torrey Craig sits tonight to give Juancho some burn as he had 17/10 against this Hawks team in the last match-up.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• ATL gives up 108.9 by their opponents on average, to Denver's 100.3

• ATL averages 104.4 PPG offensively to Denver's 103.3

• This results in a net rating for ATL of -4.5 and +3.0 for Denver

• ATL is 1-2 away from home while Denver is 3-1 from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, ATL is 2-4 to Denver's 4-2 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference is as much if not more than ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver is tied with the Lakers for first place in the Western Conference standings, while ATL is currently in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, 5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

ATL: RPG 43.7 APG 22.7 SPG 8.9 BPG 5.3 FG% 45.5 3% 29.0 FT% 70.2

DEN: RPG 46.1 APG 24.0 SPG 7.9 BPG 5.1 FG% 42.9 3% 35.8 FT% 76.7

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, Jabari Parker absolutely FEASTS on the Nuggets when he plays them. For whatever reason, Iso guys that are largely inefficient seem to always discover their touch against Denver and he's one of them. Atlanta is several years away from thinking about contending but with pieces like Young and Reddish, if Denver looks past them, they'll suffer the same fate as they did the last time the two teams squared off last season and embarrass themselves in defeat.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 101 - Atlanta 87

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

(leaving this up despite the expert tank-job being exhibited by the Warriors. Clearly Dallas is now a playoff team.)

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Atlanta Hawks Roster

	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	DeAndre' "The Quandary" Bembry 95	F	25	6' 5"	210 lbs	Saint Joseph's	$2,603,982
	"It's The Great Pumpkin" Charlie Brown Jr. 4	SG	21	6' 6"	199 lbs	Saint Joseph's	--
	Vince "The Only Player Older Than Yours Truly" Carter 15	G	42	6' 6"	220 lbs	North Carolina	$1,620,564
	Allen Crabbe "Dribble" 33	G	27	6' 5"	212 lbs	California	$18,500,000
	Bruno "Mercury" Fernando 24	PF	21	6' 9"	240 lbs	Maryland	$1,400,000
	Brandon "Good Luck Charm" Goodwin 0	G	24	6' 0"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
	Kevin "Your J May Be Wet But Mine Is" Huerter 3	G	21	6' 7"	190 lbs	Maryland	$2,636,280
	De'Andre "Deer" Hunter (Check them out. A good Atlanta Band)12	SF	21	6' 7"	225 lbs	Virginia	$7,068,360
	Damian "Parts Unknown" Jones 30	C	24	6' 11"	245 lbs	Vanderbilt	$2,305,057
	Alex "Should Probably Be Dating Alexis" Len 25	C	26	7' 0"	250 lbs	Maryland	$4,160,000
	"Kareem Abdul" Jabari Parker 5	F	24	6' 8"	245 lbs	Duke	$6,500,000
	Chandler "Petrie Dish" Parsons 31	F	31	6' 9"	230 lbs	Florida	$25,102,511
	Cam "Slam" Reddish 22	SG	20	6' 8"	218 lbs	Duke	$4,245,720
	Evan "Ike" Turner 1	G	31	6' 6"	220 lbs	Ohio State	$18,606,556
	Tyrone "Stashweed" Wallace 8	G	25	6' 5"	198 lbs	California	$1,588,231
	Trae "The Forward Leap" Young 11	G	21	6' 1"	180 lbs	Oklahoma	$6,273,000

Update: Cancar has been assigned to the G-league affiliate for the Hawks. Bol and Dozier are on G-League assignment with the Bulls affiliate. As for Atlanta, Carter is out for personal reasons & Turner is out with an Achilles injury, while the law firm of Reddish, Parsons & Len are all game-time decisions with shoulder/knee/ankle injures, respectively. Also, Collins was apparently suspended.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

Re-re-up: Malik Beasley is out with an illness so my pregame prediction of Juancho getting some burn is likely accurate, though my assertion that in turn, Torrey may not play is most likely not.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 10 ATL (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +15

Jamal Murray: +13

Gary Harris: +6

Paul Millsap: +13

Will Barton: +10

Monte Morris: +14

Malik Beasley: N/A

Torrey Craig: -3

Jerami Grant: +3

Mason Plumlee: +4

Michael Porter Jr.: +2

Juancho Hernangomez: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 10 games +224

Jamal Murray : 10 games +207

Gary Harris: 10 games +123

Paul Millsap: 10 games +102

Will Barton: 8 games +115

Monte Morris: 10 games +78

Malik Beasley: 9 games +14

Torrey Craig: 10 games +8

Jerami Grant: 10 games +90

Mason Plumlee: 10 games +64

Michael Porter Jr.: 6 games +17

Juancho Hernangomez: 3 games +1

Jared Vanderbilt: 2 games +1

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 1 games -3

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +22.40

Jamal Murray: +20.70

Gary Harris: +12.30

Paul Millsap: +10.20

Will Barton: +14.38

Monte Morris: +7.80

Malik Beasley: +1.56

Torrey Craig: +0.80

Jerami Grant: +9.00

Mason Plumlee: +6.40

Michael Porter Jr.: +1.70

Juancho Hernangomez: +0.33

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0.33

Bol Bol: 0 games N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games -3.00

PJ Dozier: 0 games N/A

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 9:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Hawks counter with Young, Reddish, Hunter, Parker and Jones. To paraphrase my fellow Holy Family catholic grade school alum (#northside) Vic Lombardi, I'm hoping to see some MPJ's find the bottom of the net tonight. The ball is poppin' early (to borrow the favorite phrase of former big stiff, Adam Mares.) Denver looks like they'll be able to get just about anything they want offensively tonight, something that has yet to occur this season. They lead 7-0 at 9:45. 'Sap is focused as I predicted and the lead is 9-0 at the time of the first break, 9:36. It's been a Millsapian effort, sayeth Marlowe. Atlanta finally scores and it's 14-3 at 8:25.

Whatever affected Murray's foot in the last game, appears to be ancient history. The Hawks are settling in and the lead is down to seven at 6:53. Millsap is first to reach double digits for Denver, with a three at 4:45. Grant enters for him at this time, leading by eight. Atlanta is simply refusing to defend at the arc but fortunately for them, Denver is missing wide open looks. Murray earns his second foul and takes a seat at 3:48, leading by six. Craig/Morris check in at this time. Barton then nabs his second foul but remains in. Plumlee is in for Jokic at 3:15, leading by seven. MPJ checks in at 2:13, still leading by seven. The second unit for Denver is once again stagnant and it's resulting in a lot of forced jumpers late in the shot clock, you know... the type that Trae Young shoots with 21 seconds on the clock. Atlanta has shot 10 free throws to Denver's goose egg.

Denver is paced in TPM by Paul Millsap: +12 as they lead 34-25 after one.

Qtr2- Jabari Parker's arms appear to be a different shade than the rest of his body. I've never noticed that before. Trae Young just made a contested three that was (no exaggeration) from 35 feet away at least, with 19 seconds on the clock. Jerami Grant is REALLY struggling tonight and all season really, offensively. This second unit has nothing to add and the Hawks have cut it to one at 7:45. Of the 10 Nuggets to see action thus-far, only Craig and Harris are scoreless. Millsap and Barton return at this time. Jokic/Murray are in shortly after at 6:37, still clinging to a one point lead. Atlanta leads on a 20-9 run to begin the period. Young is an absolute chucker. Almost as much as KAT in the last game. Harris enters and the starters are in tact for the good guys at 5:10, trailing by three. The Hawks have 10 fast break points to Denver's goose egg. This ten-nil trend is troubling.

Barton makes two in double digits for Denver at 3:30. Harris tries and misses on a floater. Stop me if you've heard this one. He's 0-7 on the night. The lead has ballooned to nine at 4:54 and Malone calls timeout to chew out his listless squad. It's amazing how easily this team steps off the throttle when they get bored by an oponant, rather than running them out of the gym. Atlanta leads by 11 on the strength of an 18-4 run, at 1:39. Atlanta is making a lot of shots they don't normally make, but the effort is also not there defensively, for the Nuggets. 'Sap has made his last 27 free throw attempts and has only missed once on the season. Big Honey, with the slick pass behind the back, wrapping around Fernando, leads to an &-1 for Morris. Monte makes three in double digits for Denver, who trail by six, with mere seconds to play. Trae Young bares a passing resemblance to a young Maurice Cheeks. Just an observation, no joke there. The low-scoring Hawks are making the Nuggets look like a bunch of amateurs.

Denver is paced in TPM by Paul Millsap: +11 as they trail 54-63 at the half.

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Qtr3- The Nuggets are hopefully digging into Marlowe's famous orange slices at the half. Barton drills it from distance to open the second half festivities. Atlanta is daring Big Honey to shoot, he's obliging and missing badly. The lead for Atlanta is six at the time of the first break, 9:57. Huerter appears to have injured his left wrist or hand on a hard slap by Jokic. Huerter was clearly looking to pass but is awarded free-throws anyway. The officials reviewed the play during the timeout and correctly ruled it a foul on the pass-off. Denver is not at all taking any interest in the glass tonight. Millsap finally misses at the charity stripe and the lead is eight for the Hawks at 9:08. The canned crowd is dead silent. Harris FINALLY scores on a transition three from Murray, cutting the lead to six at 7:45. Jokic makes four in double digits for Denver. The Nuggets have GOT to start getting some offensive production out of their back-court, to counter all of the offense they are surrendering to Young.

I personally think he's taking and making some TERRIBLE and unsustainable shots but he's also getting into the paint at will. Apparently it was a shoulder injury for Huerter and he's out for the rest of the night. Another contested, off-balance three by Young clanks in (most have drawn iron tonight) and the lead is 11 at 6:49. The ball is demonstrably NOT poppin'. Barton cuts it to eight on a hero-ball three from the top of the arc. The rotations on defense have been horrific for the Nuggets tonight. Murray makes five in double digits for Denver, who trail by eight at 4:20 (smoke 'em if you got 'em!) Why can't Jokic shoot any longer? What happened? No players for Denver have six or more rebounds. Grant/Morris enter for Denver at 3:20, trailing by eight. Young clowned Barton by dribbling through his legs before drilling a baseline J and the lead is now 12 at 2:36. Show some pride Denver! The rest of the bench unit enters at this time. Correction, Barton and Harris remain in. Morris has been the lone bright spot for the Nuggets off the bench.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +16 as they trail 89-98 after three.

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Qtr4- Grant, Morris, Murray, Plumlee and Harris remain in there to open the fourth. Plumlee dunks then Morris draws a foul, cutting the lead to seven and giving the crowd something to cheer about finally. Gary Harris: DUNK THE FUCKING BALL! Enough with the ineffectual floaters already! The lead is six at 10:19 on a J by Morris. Grant cuts it to three on an &-1 drive. He makes six in double digits for Denver at 9:55. The Nuggets are finally deciding to play some D and two straight blocked shots have the crowd energized. Harris sticks a corner-three and the lead is down to two at 8:36. He then ties it up after a feed by Murray, who's foot is clearly and visibly bothering him after-all. He just has no burst. I need to start preparing for these games a bit better, as the fourth quarter tightening of the bladder is setting in but I've no time to urinate. Rocky makes his half-court shot so I like Denver's chances. Atlanta is just chucking away and as I predicted, those shots that clanged in previously, are clunking out now. Nonetheless, they retake the lead at the line, courtesy of Len. Young throws up an absolute prayer in a double team in which he couldn't have possibly even seen the rim and it goes in. That is about 90% luck, I'm sorry.

The lead is back up to six as Joker and The Blue Arrow check back in at 6:22. Plumlee and Morris had a good 4th quarter stint but are starting to lose their mojo. Jokic FINALLY hits a three and that is also the differential at the moment. Young hits yet ANOTHER contested 30 footer with Murray all over him. It's ONLY a good shot if it clanks in, as it did. Jokic misses three straight from distance as Len is rightly, refusing to defend him outside. The lead is five at 3:25. Harris makes seven in double digits for Denver, a season high. Jamal cuts it to four at the line. Jokic clanks yet another wide open three and he's got to start driving! The lead is four with 1:45 to go and the Hawks are now in the bonus. Young scores two at the line and the lead is up to six. Denver is also in the bonus and a Barton freebie cuts it to five at 1:35. Denver needs a stop here. Gary hacks the bejezus out of Young on a drive. Trae had fouled Harris previous to it with no call. At any rate, the lead is now seven after two free throws by the Young stud for Atlanta and it's nervous time at 1:10. Denver resorts to the foul and chuck game and this one is ova!

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +15 as they by drop one at home, by a final score of 121-125.

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Final Thoughts:

• No Juancho tonight. That surprised me.
  
• Underwhelming. That's the best adjective available to describe the start for the Nuggets, despite the win/loss record.
  
• Stop doing this Denver! There are now and likely always will be, four periods in a basketball contest!
• Young will be an excellent player and an All Star, likely this season in fact but he's developing some very bad habits by virtue of a green light. Either way though, you don't get 42 points and 11 assists by being ENTIRELY lucky. He's excellent, despite his poor shot selection.
  
• Jokic goes 1-8 from beyond the arc. Stop setting up camp there for a while.
• MPJ is a long long way, from being as NBA ready as Trae.
  
• 'Member when Denver led 12-0 and then got Bored? Good times!
• Please don't take my criticism of Trae as hate. I had him on my fantasy team last season so I know that this three point shooting is simply not sustainable.
  

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We Suck Again!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.
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