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Nuggets vs Pels I: "No offense, but..."

When last these two teams squared off in game 62 of last season the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from only two players, led by Nikola Jokic: +22. Of all players for the Denver Nuggets, only Juancho Hernangomez: -11 scored in the red as Denver lost at home in a listless display of disorganized disinterest, by a final score of 120 - 112.

In that game, the Pels who were playing without then-fulcrum Anthony Davis, simply played with necessary desire. Jrue Holiday scored 29 points, Julius Randle had 28 and the Pelicans rallied from 19 points down to win. Stop me if you've heard this one before but... It also helped that they sent Denver's best player to bench with early foul trouble. Nikola Jokic finished with 20 points but was limited to 6:23 in the first half when he accumulated three fouls, including two in the opening minutes. Jokic wound up playing for only 21:34 in the game. (per ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, Denver has got to find a way to get their offense flowing, something which has yet to occur (save the unsustainable three point shooting in game one.) All that Coach Malone would talk about following the loss at home to Dallas, was that they didn't play any defense but that was to be expected on the second night of a back to back, after traveling east in a snow storm, losing an hour of sleep, arriving at DIA which is located roughly in Topeka and hitting the sack at 4AM. In reality they actually still played very good D for most of the game, particularly on Doncic and KP & it was the second team that failed to do anything on EITHER end of the court. Harris and Barton in particular were very good in their perimeter defense.

Furthermore, the Nuggets have played excellent D in the three previous games and as I seem to always mention in the Malone era, they focus FAR too much on it in the early season, to the detriment of the offense. I agree that it should be the primary emphasis, just not in a tunnel-vision-manner which preempts the offense from functioning.

Everyone needs to chill the fuck out on the MPJ bullshit too BTW. It's very simple really. He is highly unlikely to play until Denver finds themselves in a contest that is not hotly contested. People saying they are surprised or even shocked that he has yet to play are missing something. They are either influenced only by numbers, potential or what I suspect is the case for the vast/loud majority of them; the appeal of the shiny new thing and not by any basis in the reality of how the NBA or indeed basketball work. I want to see him play as much as anyone. I also want for Denver to step on the gas and blow a team out... The latter shall begat the former: Deuteronomy 4:25 (Not really. Actually, who knows? I went to Catholic school so I know very little about the bible.)

I suppose it's prudent to speak about the Pels in this section as they currently posses the belt in this H2H match-up. The Nuggets dodge a bullet tonight with Holiday and Favors not playing, as they give Murray/Jokic respectively fits in their attempts to defend. Unfortunately however, Okafor also is a hard-guard for Jokic as he is crafty down low, not unlike the offensive game of Big Honey minus the passing. Okafor however will have nothing for Nikola on the other end and as a result, the Nuggets superstar HAS to be aggressive on offense in a manner in which he hasn't been since game two. I expect a big night from Murray who always gets up to play against Pels newcomer, Lonzo Ball and as we've learned, often as Murray goes, so go the Nuggets fortunes.

Their other major asset acquired in the trade with the Lakers for AD, Brandon Ingram, is off to a sensational start to his Pelicans career and Millsap will have to apply his old-man-strength to the encounter, in the hopes of slowing him down tonight.

Most of the rest of the retooling roster for New Orleans are misfits and cast-offs, so we can pretty much expect three to four guys we've never heard of, to dominate tonight as a result of my mentioning this.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

• NO gives up 128.3 by their opponents on average, to Denver's 102.5

• NO averages 121.0 PPG offensively to Denver's 105.8

• This results in a net rating for NO of -7.3 and +3.3 for Denver

• NO is 0-2 at home while Denver is 2-0 away from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

• In terms of conference record, NO is 0-3 to Denver's 3-1 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference is as much if not more than ever, the stiffer competition

• Denver is tied with four other teams for second place in the Western Conference standings, 0.5 games ahead of three more, while NO currently resides in second to last place in the Western Conference, 3.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

NO: RPG 46.0 APG 30.8 SPG 8.0 BPG 5.3 FG% 45.2 3% 36.6 FT% 72.6

DEN: RPG 48.5 APG 22.0 SPG 8.0 BPG 5.5 FG% 41.2 3% 36.2 FT% 81.4

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, I have a feeling that this Pels squad may be precisely the Rx for what ails the Nuggets offensive flow. They don't guard anyone and people can talk all they want about offense being the more important element to determining outcome in the NBA but the reality of it is, if two teams are both good on offense and one of them is decent on D while the other shows no interest, the scoring differential is drastically affected in a way that is simply not true in reverse.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 119 - New Orleans - 111 (still too close for an MPJ sighting. Sorry casuals, noobs and disinterested Donkeys dudes.)

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

New Orleans Pelicans Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Nickeil "O'Neil" Alexander-Walker 0	SG	21	6' 5"	205 lbs	Virginia Tech	$2,964,840
	"Gonzo" Lonzo Ball 2	PG	22	6' 6"	190 lbs	UCLA	$8,719,320
	Zylan "If You Can't Beat 'Em" Cheatham 45	SF	23	6' 5"	220 lbs	Arizona State	--
	Derrick "I'll Do You NO" Favors 22	C	28	6' 9"	246 lbs	Georgia Tech	$17,650,000
	Josh "Touch Of" Gray 5	PG	26	6' 0"	180 lbs	LSU	--
	Josh Hart "Transplant" 3	SG	24	6' 5"	204 lbs	Villanova	$1,655,160
	"Action" Jaxson Hayes 10	C	19	6' 11"	220 lbs	Texas	$4,862,040
	Jrue "Sp? #1" Holiday 11	SG	29	6' 3"	180 lbs	UCLA	$26,231,111
	"Bean Pole" Brandon Ingram 14	SF	22	6' 7"	196 lbs	Duke	$7,265,485
	Frank "Also Action" Jackson 15	PG	21	6' 3"	205 lbs	Duke	$1,618,520
	Nicolo "Melo" Melli 20	PF	28	6' 9"	236 lbs	--	$4,102,564
	"Gregarious" Darius Miller 21	SF	29	6' 6"	225 lbs	Kentucky	$7,000,000
	E'Twaun "Less Is" Moore 55	SG	30	6' 3"	191 lbs	Purdue	$8,664,928
	Jahlil "Nickeil" Okafor 8	C	23	6' 10"	270 lbs	Duke	$1,702,486
	JJ "The Velociraptor? Fuck, I Dunno" Redick 4	SG	35	6' 3"	190 lbs	Duke	$13,486,300
	Kenrich "Schmenrich" Williams 34	SG	24	6' 6"	210 lbs	TCU	$1,416,852
	"The Joy Of My World" Zion Williamson 1	SF	19	6' 6"	284 lbs	Duke	$9,757,440

Update: Barton is questionable with a toe injury. Bol and Dozier are on G-League assignment with the Bulls affiliate. As for New Orleans, Holiday/Favors are questionable with knee injures, Zion is out with the same & Miller is out with an Achilles injury.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)


Re-Re-up: The People's champion is out for Denver. Holiday is expected to give it a go. The Pels D just improved exponentially.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 5 NO (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +7

Jamal Murray: +13

Gary Harris: +6

Paul Millsap: +1

Will Barton: N/A

Monte Morris: +8

Malik Beasley: -2

Torrey Craig: -5

Jerami Grant: +9

Mason Plumlee: +7

Michael Porter Jr.: +14

Juancho Hernangomez: -2

Jared Vanderbilt: +3

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: -3

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 5 games +124

Jamal Murray : 5 games +87

Gary Harris: 5 games +64

Paul Millsap: 5 games +44

Will Barton: 4 games +52

Monte Morris: 5 games +28

Malik Beasley: 5 games +17

Torrey Craig: 5 games -3

Jerami Grant: 5 games +48

Mason Plumlee: 5 games +41

Michael Porter Jr.: 1 games + 14

Juancho Hernangomez: 1 games -2

Jared Vanderbilt: 1 games +3

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 1 games -3

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +24.80

Jamal Murray: +17.40

Gary Harris: +12.80

Paul Millsap: +8.80

Will Barton: +13.00

Monte Morris: +5.60

Malik Beasley: +3.40

Torrey Craig: -0.60

Jerami Grant: +9.60

Mason Plumlee: +8.20

Michael Porter Jr.: +14.00

Juancho Hernangomez: -2.00

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +3.00

Bol Bol: 0 games N/A

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games -3.00

PJ Dozier: 0 games N/A

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 3:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their second iteration of the starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Craig, Millsap & Jokic. The Pels counter with Ball, Holiday, Melli, Ingram & Okafor. Since I know you were wondering, my beloved min-pin Mazzy, is going as a cheerleader on this frigged Halloween evening. She's non-plussed at the notion but the Nuggets need all the pep they can garner.

The next time Kenny Smith puts any amount of research into the teams he's commentating on will be the first. Denver is moving the ball well early but New Orleans strikes first on a three from Holiday. It's even-Steven at five a piece at 9:45. Harris is aggressive early and takes it in for a monster jam on two defenders. Holiday is 3-3 (2-2 from distance) and the lead is two for New Orleans at 8:10.

Craig is 0-2 and the MPJ crazies are raising their pitchforks in unison. New Orleans leads by two at the time of the first break, 6:41. Ingram looks extremely stoned. He kinda has that Sam Perkins vibe to his facial expressions. Grant is first off the pine for the good guys at this point. MPJ is checking in so perhaps Malone was planning on showcasing him on national TV all along. Malik also checks in at 3:15 in a tie game. Morris is in at 2:55 as the Nuggets lead by two. Plumlee completes tonight's bench squad as he's in for Joker at 1:25, trailing by one. MPJ has his first two NBA points at the 57 second mark, on a beautiful drive. Jackson has ten quick points for New Orleans, who lead by two. Beasley is exhibiting lead feet and lack of DBBIQ once again tonight, unfortunately.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic +9 as they trail 30-32 after one

Qtr2- The hot shooting by Jackson continues as his three from the corner gives the Pels a five point lead early in the second period. The Nuggets bench appears out of sorts for the second game in a row tonight. New Orleans leads by seven at the time of the first break, 10:01. The score is Jackson 13 - Nuggets bench eight. Craig/Plumlee/Beasley/Morris have been especially bad tonight. The Pels lead by nine on the strength of a 10-0 run. Beasley finally does something defensively (just stood there) as he draws a charge on Lonzo Ball. The Nuggets cut it to three on a 6-0 run of their own, prompting a time out by New Orleans at 7:39. No player for either team has acquired two or more fouls as of current. Why do Marv and Chris keep referring to the thumb war that occurred in Philly last night as a fight?

Harris is the first starter to return for Denver at 7:10. Craig enters soon after. The rest of the starters are in at 5:36, trailing now by six. Denver cuts it to two on a chippy for Big Honey. New Orleans is in the bonus at 4:24. The ineffective Beasley is in for the even more ineffective Craig at 4:10, trailing by two. Millsap quickly earns two fouls (3 total) and he's replaced by Grant with 2:46 remaining. The Pels are clutching and grabbing on every drive but Denver is not getting the whistle at the moment. Grant is the first to reach double digits for Denver, who trail by four at 1:14. Harris plays outstanding one-on-one D, forcing a turnover by Holiday down the stretch.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +15 as they trail 52-56 at the half.

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Qtr3- The Nuggets have to get something, anything out of Torrey Craig this half or else he needs to sit. Porter played just fine in his stint and he just provides more by virtue of size alone. Denver is just 1-9 from distance tonight. Holiday starts the second half the same way he did the first, by drilling a three. Jamal Murray has had some nifty passes into tight windows tonight. New Orleans stretches the lead to 10, prompting a timeout by Malone at 10:18. Jokic makes two in double digits for Denver. Millsap makes three in double digits for Denver, who trail by eight at 9:07. Craig nabs his third foul (his only statistical output thus-far.) Torrey finally scores on a leak out but the lead for NO is 11 at 6:10.

The bench unit starts filtering in at 5:22 for Denver, still trailing by 11. Murray makes four in double digits for Denver. He's starting to heat up and the lead is down to eight at 3:45, after a step-back three. Ingram dunks it and the lead is back up to 12 after two turnovers by Beasley on consecutive plays, at 2:58. Someone has to get going for Denver's bench or this game will get out of reach fast. The bench squad is in tact at this point. MPJ immediately draws two fouls on New Orleans. The secondary rotations for the Nuggets have been horrendous tonight. They are also just 2-16 from beyond the arc. Hayes has four fouls for New Orleans. Grant makes a crazy bank shot at the horn but It's not looking good for the good guys.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +15 as they trail 86-75 after three.

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Qtr4- The fans may get what they wanted, a heavy dose of MPJ, if the reserves for Denver can't cut into the lead enough to necessitate re-inserting the starters. Plumlee hits two at the line and then Beasley finally scores on a three and just like that, the lead is down to six at 10:58, on the strength of a 7-0 run. Two straight shots by Jackson and a three by Hart and just as suddenly as Denver cut into the lead, New Orleans expands it to 14. The law firm of Beasley, Porter and Morris are a combined 3-15 from the floor tonight, while Denver as a squad are 3-18 from beyond the arc. Unacceptable. Murray and Harris check in at 9:45 in an attempt to stem the tide. Porter and Morris are likely done for the night.

The officials are starting to even out the foul calls as is their wont and Denver will be in the bonus with the next New Orleans foul, as Jokic re-enters at 9:13, trailing by 14. Far too often, Denver players have been unready to shoot wide open shots when they receive the ball tonight. It appears that Malone is going with Grant and Beasley instead of Craig and Millsap to close tonight. Denver is playing absolutely no D and the lead is up to 19 at 7:53 after yet another three by Holiday. Denver has given up and it's tough to watch. Malone waives the white flag at 7:09, trailing by 21 and the second team Nuggets all check in. I purposely didn't say bench squad this time as it's highly likely that they dig even deeper into the bench tonight. Vlatko anyone? Morris sticks a three, his first since the regular season last year!!!! Juancho/Vanderbilt check in as Plumlee fouls out at 5:25 and that does it for me. You get the picture. Just tracking the data from here on out.

Denver is paced in TPM by Michael Porter Jr.: +14 (in his NBA debut) as they lose in a blowout, 107-122

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Final Thoughts:

• Barton was sorely missed in the starting unit tonight. Craig should be deployed only as a situational defender henceforth. I know I've been saying that for two years now but there is no excuse with this many healthy, talented bodies at his position.
• MPJ is going to be good VERY good but he has a LONG way to go in terms of BBIQ, especially on the defensive end.
  
• As long as Barton is out (hopefully not long) Porter should be starting and once Will returns, Porter should be his primary backup.
• Anything I or anyone else could say about Jokic right now would be purely conjecture but he's definitely/distracted/dissatisfied/disinterested/disillusioned. Why, is the question?
  
• Time for the evening-wear portion of the night. Mazzy is no longer a cheerleader for Halloween, she's now a cheerleader in Colorado on Halloween, for Halloween. So much team spirit!
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We Suck Again!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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