The good guys

Their adversaries

Nuggets vs Mavs I: "Duel for D-town Dominance"

When last these two teams squared off in game 67 of last season the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from 3 players, led by Nikola Jokic: +25. No players for Denver were in the red for that match-up, as the Nuggets won on a buzzer-beating floater by who else but Big Honey.

In that game, Doncic led Dallas with 24 points. He had a go-ahead dunk with 5.8 seconds left and was fouled, but missed a free throw that would have put the Mavericks up by two. Denver called a timeout and drew up a play for Jokic. He drove to the right of Dwight Powell, stopped and thought about a fade-away, but the shot wasn't there. "I felt like he was going to block it, so I just go to the right hand and throw it somehow. And the ball went in," Jokic said. "Powell played really good defense. He was right there but I made a lucky shot." Jokic, who was 0 for 4 from the floor in the first three quarters, finished with 11 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists, hitting all four of his field goals in the fourth -- including the game-winner. (per ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, after pulling KP in the big mid-season trade last year, Dallas is going with the Denver model of building around one cornerstone (Doncic is to them as Jokic is to Denver) & adding another capable of being an elite player if the variables align (KP and his injury is to them as Murray's potential is to the Nuggets.) Denver has a large head start given the wealth of talent in other areas of their team structure but there is no reason that Dallas won't be able to assemble a similar squad in time if they make wise decisions and avoid injuries. On that front, KP appears to be damned-near if not exactly as good as he was prior to his injury, which is great to see. This is a team (unlike the Cowboys) who are easy to root for when they don't square off with your preferred team.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

DAL gives up 112.3 by their opponents on average, to Denver's 100.3

DAL averages 116.7 PPG offensively to Denver's 105.7

This results in a net rating for DAL of +4.4 and +5.4 for Denver

DAL is 1-0 away from home while Denver is 1-0 in the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

In terms of conference record, DAL is 1-1 to Denver's 3-0 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference is as much if not more than ever, the stiffer competition

Denver is tied with San Antonio/Minnesota for first place in the Western Conference standings, 0.5 games ahead of the Clippers & Jazz, while DAL currently resides in a tie with Houston and the Lakers for sixth place in the Western Conference, one game out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

DAL: RPG 47.0 APG 22.3 SPG 7.0 BPG 5.0 FG% 44.5 3% 42.0 FT% 78.0

DEN: RPG 45.0 APG 22.5 SPG 9.0 BPG 8.0 FG% 40.5 3% 42.4 FT% 81.0

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, this is the dreaded B2B game after traveling east last night and losing an hour, while returning in the wee hours of the AM to DIA (located in Kansas) during a snowstorm. I'd be shocked if Denver doesn't play well in spite of this because these are exactly the types of occasions they rose to all season last year, while often overlooking the Phoenixes of the NBA. Dallas on the other hand are well rested and with due respect, they are NO Phoenix, so I expect a competitive game that should, like every other game the Nuggets have played thus-far, go down to the wire.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 101 - Dallas - 103

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Dallas Mavericks Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	J.J. "Oh Goodie, Denver!" Barea 5	PG	35	5' 10"	180 lbs	Northeastern	$1,620,564
	Ryan "Tom" Broekhoff 45	SG	29	6' 6"	215 lbs	Valparaiso	$1,416,852
	Jalen "Daffodil" Brunson 13	PG	23	6' 1"	190 lbs	Villanova	$1,416,852
	Antonius "Grover" Cleveland 3	SG	25	6' 5"	195 lbs	Southeast Missouri State	$1,378,242
	"Crystal" Seth Curry 30	SG	29	6' 2"	185 lbs	Duke	$7,461,380
	Luka "I Still Prefer Jeff Buckley's Version" Doncic 77	SF	20	6' 7"	230 lbs	--	$7,683,360
	Dorian "If I Drove A Delorian, I'd Only Drive It From Time To Time" Finney-Smith 10	SF	26	6' 7"	220 lbs	Florida	$4,000,000
	Tim "Do Things The" Hardaway Jr.11	SG	27	6' 5"	205 lbs	Michigan	$20,025,127
	Justin "Not Quite Jerian" Jackson 44	SF	24	6' 7"	220 lbs	North Carolina	$3,280,920
	Maximilian "Greatest Germain Player In Mavs History" Kleber 42	PF	27	6' 10"	240 lbs	--	$8,000,000
	Courtney Lee "Arquette" 1	SG	34	6' 5"	215 lbs	Western Kentucky	$12,759,670
	Boban "Tiny" Marjanovic 51	C	31	7' 4"	290 lbs	--	$3,500,000
	Kristaps "One Of Many In The Unicornucopia" Porzingis 6	PF	24	7' 3"	240 lbs	--	$27,285,000
	Dwight "Fouling Owl" Powell 7	PF	28	6' 10"	240 lbs	Stanford	$10,259,375
	Josh "Big Country" Reaves 23	SG	22	6' 4"	214 lbs	Penn State	--
	Isaiah "Reggie" Roby 9	SF	21	6' 8"	230 lbs	Nebraska	$1,500,000
	Delon "The Place-Holder" Wright 55	PG	27	6' 5"	185 lbs	Utah	$9,473,684

Update: A tad early in the year for this and I don't want to jinx anything. Bol and Dozier are on G-League assignment with the Bulls affiliate. As for DAL, Powell is a game time decision with a hammy.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 4 DAL (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +25

Jamal Murray: +8

Gary Harris: +25

Paul Millsap: +22

Will Barton: +15

Monte Morris: +1

Malik Beasley: -8

Torrey Craig: +0

Jerami Grant: +3

Mason Plumlee: +4

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Juancho Hernangomez: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 4 games +117

Jamal Murray : 4 games +74

Gary Harris: 4 games +58

Paul Millsap: 4 games +43

Will Barton: 4 games +52

Monte Morris: 4 games +20

Malik Beasley: 4 games +19

Torrey Craig: 4 games +2

Jerami Grant: 4 games +39

Mason Plumlee: 4 games +34

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Juancho Hernangomez: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: 4 games +29.25

Jamal Murray:4 games +18.50

Gary Harris: 4 games +14.50

Paul Millsap: 4 games +7.00

Will Barton: 4 games +13.00

Monte Morris: 4 games +5.00

Malik Beasley: 4 games +4.75

Torrey Craig: 4 games +0.50

Jerami Grant: 4 games +9.75

Mason Plumlee: 4 games +8.50

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Juancho Hernangomez: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Bol Bol: 0 games +0

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games +0

PJ Dozier: 0 games +0

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 3:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Mavs counter with Curry, Finney-Smith, Doncic, Powell & Porzingas. Clearly the Mavs are going to attempt to out-run the road-weary Nuggets with a small-ball lineup. Newly-inserted, Multi-hyphenated Maverick, Dwight Powell, is making his presence felt early on cuts to the hole. Predictably, it's Millsap early and often in the post and from distance, against his undersized counterparts for Dallas. He's first to reach double digits for Denver who lead 15-5 at the time of the first intermission, 8:26, on the strength of a 9-0 run. Rebounding is going to be an issue for this Mavericks team this season.

Big Honey, with the old-man YMCA steal at half court, after missing what appeared to be a wide open dunk attempt on the other end. Dallas is ice-cold from beyond the arc in the early going, as Denver leads by eight at 5:07. Murray is off to his customary slow start once again, particularly on the defensive end. Denver's starters appear to be fatiguing as Dallas cuts it to four at 3:03. Jamal earns his second foul and will take a seat. Plumlee/Grant/Beasley/Morris come in on a near-complete line change at 2:54. Only Barton remains in. Craig checks in with 12 seconds to go, uniting the bench squad, who lead by one. Barton drills one from distance, ensuring that Denver will go into the second period with the lead.

Denver is paced in TPM by Gary Harris: +11 as they lead 31-27 after one.

Qtr2- The Nuggets bench, an early season strength for this team, must extend this lead if Denver hopes to win on tired legs tonight. The officials are starting to call things more tightly now and the Nuggets pick up three quick team-fouls, within the first two minutes. The bench unit (we really need to come up with a name for these guys, as often as they are deployed in unison) is starting to find their groove in the P&R and extend the lead to five, at the time of the first break, 9:17. Monte is attacking the rim, wisely as he's been cold in the early season with his floaters as well as his jumper. The good guys are tightening the defensive screws and have increased the lead to nine at 7:56. Justin Jackson is the lone bright spot off the bench for Dallas as he has five quick points. Shooting has never been a question with him. Powell earns his third foul but remains in at 6:48. The Blue Arrow re-enters at 6:15, leading by just two. Malik is really struggling defensively and Dallas has taken a two point lead on the strength of a 9-0 run of their own, largely through sheer aggression in the paint.

Denver's starters begin filtering in at the 5:30 mark. The two teams trade threes before Harris earns a foul which sends the Mavs into the bonus at 4:47, leading by one. Murray is somewhere else mentally tonight and Monte may have to bail the Nuggets out in the second half. Denver is also in the bonus at 3:30 of a tie game. 'Sap, with his third three of the night and the Nuggets lead by four with 2:37 to go. KP finally has his first two points at 2:13, on a chippy. Now that he's en fuego, he drills a three as is often the case for natural scorers. Denver clings to a one point lead as they hold it for one shot, a layup by Barton that is true but he went too early and Doncic gets two back on the other end from the charity stripe. Will makes two in double digits for Denver. The Nuggets nearly convert what was essentially an inbound alley-oop from Jokic to Millsap who was at half-court and had to catch and heave in one motion. It rims off as the buzzer sounds. Shades of Anre Miller, that.

Denver is paced in TPM by Gary Harris: +16 as they lead 61-60 at the half.

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Qtr3- I was hoping to get my first regular season look at MPJ tonight, given that the Nuggets are fatigued but unlike most fans and even some of the media, I fully understand that this is simply not likely to happen until Denver is able to have thier first non-contest, either in defeat or in victory. Every game has been far too contentious all the way to the end thus-far and it's also wise for Malone not to play MPJ solely in garbage time, as many young guys take offense to how this torpedoes their bottom line statistics. Moving right along, Dallas has made a switch and Jackson/Kleber are in there to open the third. I'm enjoying Derrick Harper as a color commentator. He's a homer as they all are but he's largely fair and informative. I did not however, enjoy the Nuggets facing his Mavs in the late 80's (post-English/Lever's time in Denver) when they tended to have the Nuggets number. Denver leads by four on another post bucket for Millsap at 10:00. Big Honey is on 3D watch with a rather quiet 8/5/6 line. Murray is seemingly snapping out of it and Denver leads by nine at 8:14, on the strength of a seven point run. Denver's defense has the appearance of being far more sustainably dominant this season. They simply seem to believe. Exactly one person in the Pepsi Can chants M-V-P as Doncic sinks two from the line.

Jokic commits his first "only Jokic" foul of the season after turning it over on an ill-advised, dribble behind the back vs Curry. Harris makes three in double digits for Denver, who lead 71-64 at 6:58. Murray is definitely back in the swing of things at this point and the lead is nine at 5:45. Barton, with an acrobatic layup and he has a nice contributive line of 14-8, as some of the bench squad filter in at 4:24. Denver is again tightening the screws defensively as KP is unable to gain purchase in the high post vs the stronger player, Harris. Beasley and Grant are in for Denver, to more closely observe Barton and Hardaway, chucking away, willy-nilly. Murray and Jokic make five (all five starters in fact) in double digits for Denver, who lead by nine at 2:38. The bench squad is complete and in tact at this point for the good guys. Check that, Barton remains in to score on a drive prior to relinquishing a three by fellow checker Hardaway. The bench for Dallas is once again outplaying that of Denver and the Mavs cut the lead down to five, with 44 remaining. Craig finally spells Barton with mere seconds to go and Denver will lead going into the fourth period.

Denver is paced in TPM by Gary Harris: +21 as they lead 88-83 after three.

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Qtr4- The Mavs bench has more than doubled up the scoring output of Denver, 44-20. On cue, Hardaway drills one from distance. Grant's outside J has been off for the first time in this young season, tonight. Dallas takes a one point lead as Brunson goes right by the hapless Beasley for an &1. Harris is the first starter to check in at 10:00 and it's going to be up to them to bring it home tonight. Malone is forced to call a timeout, presumably to get the rest of the starters in, as the Mavs lead by three at 8:49. Beasley picks up his fifth foul but frankly, the team is better off without him tonight. He's been a defensive sieve. The starters for Denver minus Barton + Craig are in at this point but it may be too late as the momentum has been securely procured by Dallas. The lead has quickly ballooned to eight at 7:51. Barton replaces Craig and the starters are in tact for one final push. There are EIGHT PLAYERS in double digits for Dallas! The lead is nine at 6:30. Denver is finally starting to string together some stops and they cut it to four on a Millsap three pointer at 5:11. Joker is now two boards and one dime shy of B2B 3D's. Dallas is in the bonus at 4:55. Millsap cuts it to three on a tip-dunk and the crowd is engaged. Denver misses three straight wide open three's that would have tied it up, at 3:14. The lead for Dallas is four with 2:15 to play.

A three by Harris in the corner cuts it to one with 1:18 remaining. The good guys retake the lead on a layup by Murray which is goaltended by Kleber but the play is under review and appears to be a legal block. So what, jump ball? Derrick Harper is doing his DAMNEDEST to loudly influence the officials. It works. Call reversed. Why the hell is it Mavs ball though? Action stopped after the whistle! Dallas leads by one with 1:06 to go. Doncic drives for a nice reverse layup and the lead for Dallas is three with 47 seconds remaining. I'd go to 'Sap in the post and try to get Murray an open look for three here. Jokic loses the ball out of bounds on a drive and that could be the nail in the coffin with just 28 second to play. It's under review. Where is a VERY LOUD Scott Hastings when you need him? Nine of the ten Mavs players to see action, are incredibly in double digits tonight. I don't think I've ever seen that before. Denver DESPERATELY needs a stop here. Instead they play the foul game which may be prudent. Doncic goes to the line where he misses 2! Dallas takes their foul-to-give with 17 remaining and Denver takes a timeout to draw up a play, presumably to get a decent look at a three. Murray instead, takes a HORRENDOUS step-back three over a close defender of unknown phylum, from about 30 feet and that's all she wrote.

Denver is paced in TPM by Gary Harris/Nikola Jokic: +25 as they made too many mistakes to recover from and lose 106-109 at home.

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Final Thoughts: Tonight has been a good example of why I think Beasley made a mistake in turning down the money. He's having trouble getting things going, especially defensively, in limited minutes.

There is no excuse for Denver's bench to be more tired than the starters were tonight.

My pre-game prediction on the final score was (regrettably) very close to being on the nose. I just didn't think the Nuggets would have enough in the tank to make good decisions down the stretch and that held true.

For the first time ever in a regular season game, the Nuggets lose in a contest in which Big Honey has a 3D, perhaps the most ho-hum 3D of his short, brilliant career.

Dallas is gonna be good. They need a third option offensively and someone to get boards at the 5 so KP can play the 4 but they have some very good tertiary characters. Powell in my mind, is a very good bench player but not a starter.

This was one of those nights where The Anchorman had it going when no one else really did and Denver would have been wise to exploit this by feeding him down low more frequently.

On second thought, the Denver bench unit hasn't earned a nickname just yet.

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We Suck Again!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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