The good guys

Their adversaries

Nuggets vs Kings I: "Sacramento = Serburbia"

When last these two teams squared off in game 57 of last season the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from six players, led by Paul Millsap: +26. Only two players for Denver were in the red for that match-up, led by Trey Lyles: -5 as the Nuggets eked out a hard-fought victory at home, by a score of 120-118.

In that game, Jokic finished with 20 points, 18 rebounds and 11 assists for his 28th career triple-double, and Paul Millsap matched a season high with 25 points to help Denver overcome a 17-point first-half deficit. Jokic did a little bit of everything, including a pass off the backboard to himself for a layup and another full-length pass for an easy basket. Ejected in the first half, Nuggets coach Michael Malone didn't get to an in-person look at Isaiah Thomas' first 3-pointer in a Denver uniform. He also didn't watch from his usual vantage point as Nikola Jokic tipped in the winner (per ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, Sacramento is a young and talented team on the cusp of making headway in the playoffs. In my mind they are about where the Nuggets were two seasons ago and are likely to finish somewhere in the seven-nine range in the West but I can't envision them falling much lower than ninth. The offensive firepower is formidable, despite what early season output suggests. Their young core of guards Heild/Fox/Bogdanovic and F/C/ Bagley is an enviable starting point for most teams but Denver's young core is arguably the best in the league. Sacramento has a couple of moves to make in order to become contenders. The inclusion of Harrison Barnes on this roster is puzzling to me.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

SAC gives up 119.7 by their opponents on average, to Denver's 103.5

SAC averages 96.0 PPG offensively to Denver's 108.0

This results in a net rating for PDX of -23.7 and +4.5 for Denver

SAC is 0-1 at home while Denver is 1-0 away from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

In terms of conference record, SAC is 0-3 to Denver's 2-0 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference is as much if not more than ever, the stiffer competition

Denver is tied with San Antonio for 2nd place in the Western Conference standings, 0.5 games ahead of six others while SAC currently resides in a tie with New Orleans for last place in the Western Conference, 3 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

SAC: RPG 40.3 APG 16.7 SPG 6.7 BPG 3.3 FG% 39.6 3% 34.8 FT% 77.1

DEN: RPG 45.0 APG 22.5 SPG 9.0 BPG 8.0 FG% 40.5 3% 42.4 FT% 81.0

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example,Sacramento as currently constructed, simply doesn't roaster a defensive answer for Big Honey. As with the previous game, if Jokic can remain out of foul trouble, a 3D is likely. Will it be enough to win on the road against a young and desperate Kings team, however?

Prediction: Denver (lap) 107 - Sacramento 103

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

Sacramento Kings Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Trevor "Seriously, I'll Cut YOU!" Ariza 0	SF	34	6' 8"	215 lbs	UCLA	$12,195,122
	Marvin "Angry Paper" Bagley III 35	PF	20	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$8,556,120
	Harrison "Wind" Barnes 40	SF	27	6' 8"	225 lbs	North Carolina	$24,147,727
	"The Other" Nemanja Bjelica 88	PF	31	6' 10"	234 lbs	--	$6,825,000
	Bogdan "No Longer The Other" Bogdanovic 8	SG	27	6' 6"	205 lbs	--	$8,529,386
	Dewayne "Double D's" Dedmon 13	C	30	7' 0"	245 lbs	USC	$13,333,333
	Yogi "Beary" Ferrell 3	PG	26	6' 0"	178 lbs	Indiana	$3,150,000
	De'Aaron "Fantastic Mr" Fox 5	PG	21	6' 3"	175 lbs	Kentucky	$6,392,760
	Wenyen "The Angel" Gabriel 32	PF	22	6' 9"	205 lbs	Kentucky	$1,445,697
	Harry "Styles" Giles 20	PF	21	6' 11"	240 lbs	Duke	$2,578,800
	Kyle "Ordinary Average" Guy 7	SG	22	6' 1"	167 lbs	Virginia	--
	"He Got A Boo-Boo" Buddy Hield 24	SG	26	6' 4"	212 lbs	Oklahoma	$4,861,208
	Richaun "Motor" Holmes 22	SF	26	6' 10"	235 lbs	Bowling Green	$4,767,000
	Justin "Case" Jackson 10	SG	22	6' 7"	190 lbs	Wyoming	$898,310
	DaQuan "Dry" Jeffries 19	SG	22	6' 5"	230 lbs	Tulsa	--
	Cory "The Island Of Two Named People" Joseph 9	PG	28	6' 3"	193 lbs	Texas	$12,000,000
	Caleb "Not Only Have I Swanned But I shall" Swanigan 50	PF	22	6' 9"	249 lbs	Purdue	$2,033,160

Update: A tad early in the year for this and I don't want to jinx anything. As for SAC, Giles is out with a knee injury while Bagley is out with a finger injury

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 3 SAC (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +21

Jamal Murray: +19

Gary Harris: +20

Paul Millsap: +9

Will Barton: +12

Monte Morris: +8

Malik Beasley: +9

Torrey Craig: +7

Jerami Grant: +13

Mason Plumlee: +12

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Juancho Hernangomez: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: +92

Jamal Murray: +66

Gary Harris: +33

Paul Millsap: +21

Will Barton: +37

Monte Morris: +19

Malik Beasley: +27

Torrey Craig: +2

Jerami Grant: +36

Mason Plumlee: +30

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Juancho Hernangomez: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: 3 games +30.67

Jamal Murray:3 games +22.00

Gary Harris: 3 games +11.00

Paul Millsap: 3 games +7.00

Will Barton: 3 games +12.33

Monte Morris: 3 games +6.33

Malik Beasley: 3 games +9.00

Torrey Craig: 3 games +0.67

Jerami Grant: 3 games +12.00

Mason Plumlee: 3 games +10.00

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Juancho Hernangomez: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Bol Bol: 0 games +0

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games +0

PJ Dozier: 0 games +0

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 1:
m

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Kings counter with Fox, Heild, Barnes, Bjelica and Dedmon. Some saccharine song about Colorado, presumably sung by Jewel, sarcastically plays as the Nuggets starters are introduced. Denver is driving the lane aggressively and jump out to a 12-3 lead. The Kings return the favor with some aggressive play of their own and Denver leads by three at the time of the first break at 6:05. Dedmon has two early fouls and is forced to sit. The Nuggets are already in the bonus at 5:11 as Millsap hits one of two from the charity stripe. Murray is hit with his second foul and grabs a seat at 4:26, leading by four. He's replaced by Morris. Two straight, careless turnovers by Barton and the game is even at 18 with 4:26 remaining. Mason is next in for the good guys at this time. Jokic has his second foul as well and he's forced to sit soon-after, as the Kings take the lead on a dunk by Holmes. The rest of the second line for Denver enters at 3:45, trailing by four. Holmes has been the best player on the floor thus-far for either team. All momentum resides squarely with Sacramento at the moment, as they lead by seven with under two minutes to go. Bogdan has exhibited some very nice passing in the early going.

Denver is paced in TPM by Gary Harris: +7 as they trail 21-28 after one.

Qtr2- The Bench squad for Denver has been severely outplayed by their counterparts for Sacramento, who lead by nine at 9:35. Grant has been the lone bright spot for the Nuggets second unit. Denver is finally starting to pick up the defensive aggression, causing Sacramento to call a timeout, with the Nuggets having cut the lead to two at 7:43, at the time of the first break in action. Big Honey and The Blue Arrow return just prior to the halfway point of the period and Nikola ties it up with a layup. The entire starting five for Denver is in tact at 4:45 and they are starting to restore order. Sacramento, as suspected, has the look of a team which is far superior to their early season numbers/record. No one is in double figures for the Nuggets as of the 2:59 mark, as they trail by four. All ten players to see action for Denver have scored but no one player is particularly hot in this one. Sacramento lead by eight on the strength of a 14-2 run, with less that 45 seconds to go. Namanja is no match defensively for Millsap who is starting to go to work on him in the post. This was highly effective in this particular match-up last season as well IIRC. Joker launches from three-quarters-court and it's close but no cigar, as the half comes to a close. The Nuggets have their work cut out for them tonight, against what is quite obviously, a hungry Kings squad.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +13 as they trail 47-53 at the half.

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Qtr3- The Kings are keeping their collective foot on the gas and they lead by five still at 10:46. It's clear that they want this one and Denver has got to get used to the fact that opponents get up for the challenge of playing them this season. Murray is first to reach double digits for Denver and he cuts it to three before a Millsap foul (that wasn't ) sends Barnes to the line for two. Barton is starting to assert himself more and a three by Gary Harris cuts it to two at 7:10. He makes two in double digits for Denver. Jokic ties it at 65 at the 6:15 mark. The announcer from Sacramento just mentioned that Gary Harris has never fouled out of a game which is shocking really, considering how aggressive he plays on D. He scores two straight buckets and Denver FINALLY has their first lead since early in the first period... continued in 4th quarter.

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Qtr4- For the second game in a row, SBNation has decided to glitch in the third period, causing not only for me to loose a large amount of analysis (the data is in tact as I track it elsewhere thankfully) but to freeze and not be able to pick up the action until this moment; the 7:45 mark of the fourth period. The good news is that Denver is starting to take control of this game but as frequently as this is freezing, I'm just tracking TPM from here on out tonight and I'll write SBNation afterward to see what the fuck is going on. I apologize for their consistent and increasing ineptitude.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +21 as they win 101-94

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Final Thoughts: Seriously, fuck this. It is so tragically inept that it would feel like sabotage if I didn't know any better. I'm baffled as to why they can't provide the same template for these as they do for the SBNation writers. What benefit is there to not make everything uniform?

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The Nuggets Win!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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