The good guys

Their adversaries

Nuggets vs Suns I: "You just can't get clean pee these days."

When last these two teams squared off in game 47 of last season the Nuggets (I'll take a lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from a season's best 8 players, led by Mason Plumlee: +25. Only one player for Denver was in the red for that match-up, Torrey Craig: -8 as the Nuggets won in a blowout, without their best player, 132-95 in the Mile High City.

In that game, Jokic was serving a one game suspension for leaving the bench during an altercation in Utah two nights earlier, cause he's soft. Plumlee got the start in Jokic's absence and had 16 points, six assists and seven rebounds in 25 minutes. All five starters reached double digits and so did reserves Malik Beasley (19 points), Monte Morris (17) and since-departed Trey Lyles (12). On that night, Jarred Vanderbilt made his pro debut in the waning minutes after recovering from ankle and foot injuries in the previous off season (per ESPN game recaps.)

As for this game, Denver will have their hands full if they underestimate this Phoenix squad, as they did in their first encounter last season and were embarrassed & left for vulture refuse in the Sonoran desert. Phoenix will be without their emerging young center Deandre Ayton, who is serving a 25 game suspension, after testing positive for diuretics, but as the Suns showed the Sacramento Kings in game one, they have plenty of firepower.

Newcomers (of various tenure) Saric, Oubre and Rubio form a substantially upgraded starting unit along-side their best player Devin Booker (who with Ayton out, can expect plenty of double team action.)

Denver must also be mindful of Nugget killer Frank Kaminsky, particularly at the top of the arc.

Remember, Coach Malone encouraged you all to get high/drunk and loud for this one, so hold up your end of the bargain, if you please.

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Here are some numbers you can use: (Team with advantage in bold)

PHO gives up 95.0 by their opponents on average, to Denver's 100.0

PHO averages 124.0 PPG offensively to Denver's 108.0

This results in a net rating for PDX of +29.0 and +8.0 for Denver

PHO is 0-0 away from home while Denver is 0-0 in the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

In terms of conference record, PDX is 1-0 to Denver's 1-0 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved, as the Western Conference is as much if not more than ever, the stiffer competition

Denver is tied with six teams for 1st in the Western Conference standings, 1 game ahead of six others while PHO currently resides in 1st place in the Western Conference, 0 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

PHO: RPG 44.0 APG 31.0 SPG 13.0 BPG 9.0 FG% 50.0 3% 33.3 FT% 83.3

DEN: RPG 45.0 APG 24.0 SPG 11.0 BPG 4.0 FG% 42.0 3% 56.3 FT% 81.5

These numbers are in many ways meaningless this early in the season and as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" (momentum and the ability to find the zone.)

There are of course many other intangible variables at play, including match-ups. Styles make fights as they say. For example, Ayton had no answer defensively for Jokic last year, though it could be argued that Jokic didn't provide much in the way of stopping the Rookie either. With Deandre out for this one however, the only thing that can get in the way of a huge night for Big Honey, is foul trouble. At some point he has GOT to stop taking careless fouls.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 127 - Phoenix 93

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For this young Nuggets group, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either.) Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry and a natural scorer/creator. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league if not the deepest, which should prove to be an enormous advantage in the era of "load management" (gag!)

Joker does NOT sit around watching Pokemon and eating Serbian goldfish for hours on end, contrary to what casual fans (and bitter Embiid crazies) would like you to believe. Don't judge this particular mystery novel by it's tattered cover. Nikola is a finely tuned athlete, capable of going toe to toe with the best of them for as long as is necessary, as the quadruple overtime playoff game vs Portland in which he played 65 minutes last season, is irrefutable evidence of. The man cares about one thing only and that is winning.

Ok two things... deriding officials being the other. Let's make that four actually. Dancing (poorly/datedly) and hurling children into the sky. I guess he also likes horses and fish stew. He cares a lot come to think of it, just not about 3D's or indeed any statistic other than W's.

It can not be overstated what an advantage it is to have two creators in P&R sets, as the Nuggets enjoy in Jokic/Murray, a seven footer who played PG as a youth and a 6'4 PG who played C as a youth, who are able to swap roles seamlessly. Murray is widely regarded as the best screen-setter on the team while it's well documented what a virtuoso Big Honey is in terms of distribution.

I'll go ahead and post my pre-season predictions here so we can see if they hold up to the test of time in any meaningful manner

#1 Denver
#2 Utah
#3 Portland
#4 LA Clippers
#5 LA Lakers
#6 Houston 
#7 San Antonio
#8 Golden State
#9 Who the fuck cares? Not whomever finishes ninth, that's for certain.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert, posted by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open the following link: Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?" Do yourself a favor and click that link which illustrates his tragic brilliance as succinctly as can be displayed without listening to his innovative music. It goes without saying, you should of course explore that too, particularly Pink Floyd's '67 Debut album "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" and his final solo album from '70, "Barrett."

I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets Roster

	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	Will "The People's Champion" Barton 5	SG	28	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$12,776,786
	"Mutant" Malik Beasley 25	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$2,731,714
	Bol "Bilbo Baggins" Bol 10	C	19	7' 2"	220 lbs	Oregon	--
	Vlatko "Slovenian Cyborg" Cancar 31	SF	22	6' 8"	210 lbs	Slovenia	$898,310
	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig 3	SF	28	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
	PJ "Bol" Dozier 35	PG	22	6' 6"	205 lbs	South Carolina	--
	Jerami "The Co-Host" Grant 9	SF	25	6' 9"	220 lbs	Syracuse	$9,346,153
	"Just" Gary Harris 14	SG	25	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$17,839,286
	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez 41	PF	24	6' 9"	230 lbs	España	$3,321,030
	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA Joker) 15	C	24	7' 0"	250 lbs	Sř̩bija	$27,504,630
	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap 4	PF	34	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$30,350,000
	Monte "Ratio" Morris 11	PG	24	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,588,231
	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray 27	PG	22	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$4,444,746
	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee 24	PF	29	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$14,041,096
	Michael "Half Man / Other Half, Also Man... Basically, All Man" Porter Jr. 1	PF	21	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$3,389,400
	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt 8

Phoenix Suns Roster

Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
	"Diuretic" Deandre Ayton 22	C	21	6' 11"	250 lbs	Arizona	$9,562,920
	"Sharin" Aron Baynes 46	C	32	6' 10"	260 lbs	Washington State	$5,453,280
	Devin "The Big Cactus" Booker 1	SG	22	6' 5"	206 lbs	Kentucky	$27,285,000
	Mikal "Lloyd" Bridges 25	SF	23	6' 6"	209 lbs	Villanova	$4,161,000
	Jevon "Vince" Carter 4	PG	24	6' 1"	200 lbs	West Virginia	$1,416,852
	Cheick "Please" Diallo 14	PF	23	6' 8"	219 lbs	Kansas	$1,678,854
	Jared "Derrick" Harper 12	PG	22	5' 10"	175 lbs	Auburn	--
	Ty Jerome "Lane" 10	PG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Virginia	$2,193,480
	Cameron "Jesus Tap-dancing Christ, This Squad Gives Me Nothing To Work With" Johnson 23	SF	23	6' 8"	210 lbs	North Carolina	$4,033,440
	"Amish" Tyler Johnson 16	SG	27	6' 3"	186 lbs	Fresno State	$19,245,370
	Frank "The Crank" Kaminsky 8	PF	26	7' 0"	231 lbs	Wisconsin	$4,767,000
	Jalen "The Gila Monster" Lecque 0	PG	19	6' 3"	190 lbs	--	$898,310
	Elie Okobo "Shmelly O'Shmobo" 2	SF	21	6' 3"	190 lbs	--	$1,416,852
	Kelly Oubre "Driver" Jr. 3	SF	23	6' 7"	203 lbs	Kansas	$15,625,000
	"Ravishing" Ricky Rubio 11	PG	29	6' 3"	180 lbs	--	$16,200,000
	"Super Duper" Dario Saric 20	PF	25	6' 10"	216 lbs	--	$3,481,986

Update: A tad early in the year for this and I don't want to jinx anything. As for PHO, Ty Jerome is out with an ankle injury, Cameron Johnson is out with a calf injury, and Deandre Ayton is goin' potty.

Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date :)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 1 PHO (Starters in bold)

Nikola Jokic: +43

Jamal Murray: +22

Gary Harris: +9

Paul Millsap: +7

Will Barton: +4

Monte Morris: +1

Malik Beasley: +11

Torrey Craig: -8

Jerami Grant: +13

Mason Plumlee: +4

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Juancho Hernangomez: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: +71

Jamal Murray: +47

Gary Harris: +13

Paul Millsap: +12

Will Barton: +25

Monte Morris: +11

Malik Beasley: +17

Torrey Craig: -5

Jerami Grant: +23

Mason Plumlee: +18

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Juancho Hernangomez: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Bol Bol: N/A

Vlatko Cancar: N/A

PJ Dozier: N/A

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: 2 games +35.50

Jamal Murray:2 games +23.50

Gary Harris: 2 games +6.50

Paul Millsap: 2 games +6.00

Will Barton: 2 games +12.50

Monte Morris: 2 games +5.50

Malik Beasley: 2 games +8.50

Torrey Craig: 2 games -2.50

Jerami Grant: 2 games +11.50

Mason Plumlee: 2 games +9.00

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Juancho Hernangomez: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Bol Bol: 0 games +0

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games +0

PJ Dozier: 0 games +0

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 1:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Jokic. The Suns counter with Rubio, Booker, Oubre, Saric and Baynes. It's the first home game of the season for Denver and the final televised game of the season. Sky-Walker David Thompson (lap) is in the house to present Big Honey with some sort of tardis for being named to the all-NBA first team. Jokic has more points in the first minute tonight than he did in the entire first half last time. MVP chants rain down early as he toes the line of the charity stripe. Oubre looks very good and he has the Suns leading by five at the 9:45 mark.

Harris and Barton are playing excellent D on Booker thus-far. Gary appears to be pulling the string a bit on his outside J's this season. Joker is getting it going and he cuts the lead to two at the time of the first break, 7:44. PHO switches are leading to mismatches in the post for Millsap against a disinterested defender in Devin. Cold shooting by the good guys is keeping the Suns in it so far. Craig and Grant are first off the pine for the Nuggets at 4:57. Malik joins them soon-after at 3:50, trailing by two. Denver is 0-6 from distance, a far cry from their opening night results. Plumlee and Morris are now in to complete the staggered line change. Grant has his first emphatic, break-away jam in a Mile High, royal-blue jersey.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +9 as they trail 15-21 after one.

Qtr2- The guards for Denver have been offensively obsolete thus-far and need to pick it up here in the second period. Both teams are absolutely ice cold tonight. I understand what Altitude is doing right now with their talking head ranting about the lack of televised games but man, is this bad television. Plumlee nabs his third foul at 9:15 but remains in, as Denver trails by six. Check that, Jokic is in for him between foul shots. Grant finally sticks a three and Denver is now 1-9 from beyond the arc. I'm pretty sure that not one of the Nuggets floaters have found the bottom of the net tonight either. Denver trails by ten once the talking head stops making sense, deep into what would have normally been a commercial break at 7:32. My pregame score prediction appears to have been a gigantic goocher.

The Nuggets are shooting 28% from the floor so far and are not sharing the ball well at all. This game is eerily similar to the first meeting vs Phoenix last year, when Denver underestimated the Suns and were embarrassed as a result. Craig is getting the bejezus knocked out of him tonight. The Nuggets starting five is in tact at the 5:38 mark, trailing by 12. The Suns are going to be a vastly improved squad on the defensive end of the court this season. The crowd wants to erupt but there is nothing to cheer about. The Nuggets passes are all just a couple clicks off tonight. It's strange to say but the Nuggets are lucky to be down by just nine with 2:35 to go. It's becoming a flop-fest as the officiating has dictated. Big Honey is finally first to reach double digits for Denver at 1:59. PHO is doing a nice job of spreading their fouls around. Just about everyone in orange has two.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +17 as they trail 39-45 at the half.

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Qtr3- Please see 4th qtr.

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Qtr4- I just had a ton of text disappear inexplicably, due to SBNation's glitch-ass algorithm at the 8:53 mark of the fourth period, despite having saved it numerous times, so my apologies for the lack of 2nd half insight. At any rate, it's 68 all. Beasley sticks a three, and Denver leads by five at 7:15. He makes four in double digits for Denver.
I'm highly frustrated because I produced some very fun material in the third period, only to vanish into the ether and I'm not certain if there is a way to avoid this in the future. Jokic has his 3D with 17/13/10. The Nuggets lead by five with 4:50 to play. Denver is in the bonus at 4:00, leading by five.

Beasley has come to play in the second half and he + Grant have spearheaded the effort here in the fourth, along with the usual starters minus 'Sap/Harris. The Nuggets lead by six at the 2:17 mark. Craig has been dreadful tonight on both ends and I question Malone reinserting him over Harris who actually has played excellent D tonight. The lead for Denver is three with 1:19 to go. Coach Malone was reading along as usual and he indeed inserts Gary for Torrey. Denver leads by just one with under a minute to go. Phoenix is getting away with murder defensively. That combined with some boneheaded plays by Denver, namely Beasley fouling Rubio on a half court three point attempt and some missed FT's by the usually clutch Murray, means they're going to overtime.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +37 as they are knotted up at 95 at the end of regulation


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OT: Rubio/Baynes/Oubre all have five fouls heading into OT and no one for Denver is in foul trouble. Denver goes with Murray, Harris, Beasley, Grant and Jokic. Baynes immediately fouls out, prompting Marlowe to say "Bye Felicia!" I'm rather shocked that Beasley is still out there after his brain-fart foul. Oubre also fouls out, both OT fouls vs Joker on one possession. Post him up on Rubio! Nikola hits two at the line followed by a three for Murray and Denver leads by five. Rubio has seen enough and he also decides to foul out. The lead is now three after FT's by The Crank. Booker cuts it to one on two FT's of his own. Jokic sees Harris for a corner three on a no-look pass and the lead is four at 2:01. Booker is hit with his fifth foul at 1:39 and Denver leads by three.

Jamal's turn to make a silly foul sending Kaminsky (he was at his defensive FT line on the other end of the court) to the line where he retakes the lead for PHO. The Nuggets are doing all they can to hand over victory and suffer a horrendous loss. One has to wonder why Millsap has been absent for ages in a game in which playing him next to Grant seems to be a no-brainier, as a closing tandem. Are they really going to manage his load in a tight game? Jokic misses two straight bunnies and it's nervous time. Harris steals the ball leading to Murray free throws on the other end with 19 showing on the clock. He drills them both and Denver leads once again. PHO calls a time out to advance the ball. DO NOT FUCKING FOUL FOR FUCKS SAKE... FUCK! Booker holds it for one shot and he is rejected by Craig who redeems himself after a god-awful game.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +43 as they win 108-107 in OT.

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Final Thoughts: As ugly as the score was, the Defense was excellent and Denver just failed to stick good shots. Also, Phoenix seems to have a much improved defense this year.

As I predicted, this broadcast has been one giant infomercial for Altitude TV.

That was fun. Lets never do it again.

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The Nuggets Win!

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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