Two definite answers. Many questions remain.

Zion who?

The Band is back together... not so fast says Kiki Heavyhandeweghe.

Nuggets vs Suns IV: The disappointing final chapter.

No Ayton, no Jokic No time for analysis tonight or tomorrow vs the Embiid-less/Butler-less Sixers. Frankly, I'm glad I had important doin's a transpirin' this weekend. Data will be tracked on time both nights but I simply have too much going on for in-game analysis. The pre-game/post-game numbers are in tact at least.

The only real question which remains: Is Malone's erroneous love affair with the perceived (false) defensive execution of Torrey Craig so boundless that he would even run him out there tonight, in a starting lineup which also features non-shooters Plumlee and Millsap, with the oft-injured and newly activated Harris and the streaky Murray? If so then intervention is CLEARLY needed.

When last these two teams squared off in game 41 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from five players led by Monte Morris: +22. Only Juancho Hernangomez: -8 was in the red for that match-up as the Nuggets lost pathetically so in Arizona, by a final tally of 93-102

As for this game, No Ayton, no Jokic, No fun. They've played three times in two months including once just over a week ago so I feel no need to elaborate further.

Now here are some numbers you can use:

Phoenix gives up 115.2 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 106.4

The Suns average 106.0 PPG offensively to the Nuggets 111.2

This results in a net rating for Phoenix of -9.1 and +4.8 for Denver

Phoenix is an almost impossible 4-20 on the road while Denver is a nearly unbeatable 20-4 at home

In terms of conference record, the Suns are 7-23 to the Nuggets 18-19 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved as the Western Conference is as much as ever, the stiffer competition.

Denver of course is second in the Western Conference standings, 2.0 games behind the Warriors while Phoenix currently resides in 15th place in the Western Conference, 24 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)

PHO: RPG 40.1 APG 23.8 SPG 9.08 BPG 5.12 FG% .456 FT% .775 3% .334

DEN: RPG 46.7 APG 27.3 SPG 7.85 BPG 4.61 FG% .469 FT% .752 3% .357

The numbers on whole obviously favor Denver but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone. To that end, Denver has won 14 of their last 20, five of their last eight while Phoenix has been victorious in just six of their last 20 games but with one of their six wins (their most recent in fact) coming against Denver.

For Denver, individual consistency is simply not a thing for this squad so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night.

With that said, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry; a natural scorer/creator and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without I.T. and MPJ.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, Denver is a very good team, while conversely, Phoenix is a very not good team. Sorry guys, I'm just over this team after so many games in such short order against them.

For deeper analysis on the ins and outs of the Phoenix Suns, please feel free to peruse my most recent piece on them here:

Prediction: Denver 121 (lap ) - Phoenix 111

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs):If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Phoenix Suns Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
15	Ryan "Juancho" Anderson	PF	36	6' 10"	240 lbs	California	$20,421,546
3	Trevor "Indigo Montoya" Ariza	SF	33	6' 8"	215 lbs	UCLA	$15,000,000
22	Deandre "The _love" _Ayton	C	20	7' 1"	250 lbs	Arizona	$8,165,160
35	Dragan "Perfect As Is" Bender	PF	20	7' 1"	225 lbs	Honalee	$4,661,280
1	Devin "Text" Booker	SG	21	6' 6"	210 lbs	Kentucky	$3,314,365
25	Mikal "Sp? #1" Bridges	SF	22	6' 7"	210 lbs	Villanova	$3,552,960
0	Isaiah Canaan "Fodder"	PG	27	6' 0"	200 lbs	Murray State	$1,512,601
4	Tyson "The Vacuum" Chandler	C	36	7' 1"	240 lbs	High School	$13,585,000
11	Jamal "Joey" Crawford	SG	38	6' 5"	185 lbs	Michigan	$1,512,601
30	Troy "The Enforcer" Daniels	SG	27	6' 4"	205 lbs	Virginia Commonwealth	$3,258,539
21	Richaun "That's Levitation" Holmes	PF	25	6' 10"	235 lbs	Bowling Green	$1,600,520
20	Josh "Just Wait" Jackson	SF	21	6' 8"	200 lbs	Kansas	$6,041,520
8	George "Colorado" King	SF	24	6' 6"	220 lbs	Colorado	G-Money
14	De'Anthony "Melo" Melton	PG	20	6' 4"	200 lbs	USC	$949,000
2	Elie "Deuces" Okobo	PG	20	6' 2"	180 lbs	I'm Guessing Africa	$1,238,464
12	TJ "Scorin" Warren	SF	25	6' 8"	215 lbs	North Carolina State	$11,750,000

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	27	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$11,830,358
25	"Mutant" Malik Beasley	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$1,773,840
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	27	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
2	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	23	6' 2"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	24	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$16,517,857
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	23	6' 9"	230 lbs	Espana	$2,166,360
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	23	7' 0"	250 lbs	Gotham	$24,605,181
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	22	6' 10"	225 lbs	Syracuse	$1,874,640
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	23	6' 10"	234 lbs	Kentucky	$3,364,249
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	33	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$29,230,769
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	23	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,349,383
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	21	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$3,499,800
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	28	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$12,917,808
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	20	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$2,894,160
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	29	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,512,601
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	19	6' 9"	214 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	22	7' 0"	255 lbs	UCLA	G-Money

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt is day to day as he prepares to make his NBA debut and Jokic is out for basketball reasons. As for PHO, Melton is questionable with an undisclosed injury, while Warren/Ayton/Holmes are are out with undisclosed (at least by Daniel Lewis) injuries of their own.

Re-up: Yes, I'm aware that Phoenix has made trades. Are you aware of what a pain in the ass those things are to alter?

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Data:

TPM™ Game 47 PHO

Jamal Murray: +15

Isaiah Thomas: Injured

Monte Morris: +10

Brandon Goodwin: N/A

Gary Harris: +17

Malik Beasley: +15

Torrey Craig: -8

Will Barton: +11

Juancho Hernangomez: +0

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: +3

Paul Millsap: +21

Trey Lyles: +10

Tyler Lydon: +2

Nikola Jokic: N/A

Mason Plumlee: +25

Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 47 games +803

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 47 games +546

Brandon Goodwin: 12 games +19

Nick Young: 3 games -2

Gary Harris: 29 games +434

Malik Beasley: 47 games +307

Torrey Craig: 43 games +9

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 8 games +86

Juancho Hernangomez: 45 games +5

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt:1 games +3

Paul Millsap: 39 games +351

Trey Lyles: 45 games +267

Tyler Lydon: 18 games +1

Nikola Jokic: 46 games +1034

Mason Plumlee: 47 games +377

Thomas Welsh: 9 games +18

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +17.09

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +11.62

Brandon Goodwin: +1.58

Nick Young: -0.67

Gary Harris: +14.97

Malik Beasley: +6.53

Torrey Craig: +0.21

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +10.75

Juancho Hernangomez: +0.11

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: 3.00

Paul Millsap: +9,00

Trey Lyles: 5.93

Tyler Lydon: +0.06

Nikola Jokic: +22.48

Mason Plumlee: +8.02

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 45:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 9th starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap & Plumlee. The Suns counter with Okobo, Booker, Bridges, Jackson & Bender.

Denver is paced in TPM by Murray +16 as they lead 37-32 after one.

Qtr2- The

Denver is led in TPM by Plumlee/Millsap +10, Harris +15 & Murray +18 as they lead 70-55 at the half.

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Qtr3- The

Denver is paced in TPM by Murray +15, Harris + 17, Millsap +21 & Plumlee +25 as they lead 98-81 after three.

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Qtr4- The

Denver is paced in TPM by Morris/Lyles +10, Barton +11, Beasley/Murray +15, Harris + 17, Millsap +21 & Plumlee +25 as they win going away, 132-95 tonight in the Mile High City.

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Final Thoughts: Solid team win. VANDY! I can't wait for the opening night starting five to make their first appearance since game two tomorrow! Hurry back IT and MPJ!

M

We Suck Again!

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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