Two definite answers. Many questions remain.

Zion who?

The Band is back together! FINALLY!

Nuggets vs Suns III: The return of The People's Champion?

At the time of writing (11:45 AM Saturday) I'm pretty convinced that Barton wants to play tonight as opposed to the second of a B2B tomorrow, as this was the team Denver played when he was injured in game two and competitive people get strange kicks out of exorcising demons in this manner.

What a difference a couple of weeks makes! In the most recent encounter between these two teams, Denver was missing three starters, six rotational players, and Beasley/Murray were both playing through injuries sustained just one night before, while Millsap made a surprise appearance off the bench after missing nearly a month's time. If Barton and Harris return tonight, though neither are likely to resume manning their starting roles just yet, the Nuggets will be as "healthy" as they have been since their game two meeting with these Suns. Only Isaiah Thomas, Michael Porter Jr and Jared Vanderbilt who have yet to play for the Nuggets, will be absent.

Juancho, Millsap, Murray, Beasley, Harris and Barton, Lyles, hell more accurately everyone, are all nowhere near 100% but it's all relative, given that the absent players have got to be substantially better off in terms of health at this point.

When last these two teams squared off in game 34 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players led by a career high +53 from Jamal Murray. No players were in the red for that match-up as the Nuggets narrowly escaped the valley of the sun with a victory, by a final score of 122-118.

As for this game, as this is the third of four meetings between the two squads and given that I volunteer Saturday afternoons I'm just gonna dive right into the numbers.

Here are some numbers you can use:

Phoenix gives up 114.7 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 105.4

The Suns average 106.2 ppg offensively to the Nuggets 110.7

This results in a -8.5 net rating for PHO of and +5.3 for Denver.

Phoenix is 6-17 at home while Denver is 11-9 on the road.

In terms of conference record The Suns are 6-20 to the Nuggets 17-7 mark

Denver is also the only team in the league that is undefeated (5-0) within their division which means next to nothing aside from using it as a barometer in the strength of competition level

Denver of course leads the Western Conference standings while Phoenix currently resides in 15th (last) place, 19.5 games out

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)

PHO: RPG 40.2 APG 24.0 SPG 9.19 BPG 4.84 FG% .461 FT% .789 3% .341

DEN: RPG 47.3 APG 27.4 SPG 8.13 BPG 4.75 FG% .465 FT% .749 3% .351

The numbers on whole obviously favor Denver but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone. To that end, Denver has won 11 of their last 14 while PHO has won only 10 times all season, in 43 games played. No players for Phoenix have eye-popping numbers over the course of the last three games but Ayton and Warren have been solid in the absence of Devin Booker.

For Denver, individual consistency is simply not a thing for this squad so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night.

With that said, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without Vandy, I.T. and MPJ.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, Ayton killed Big Honey in transition and in shots attempted from zero feet away last time due to the sheer differential in athleticism while predictably, Jokic pwned the inexperienced rookie in the half court, with 23-8-9 on 8-11 shooting. Neither Booker nor Murray are particularly known for their D and it showed in that match-up as Booker had a line of 27-1-8 on 11-18 shooting while Murray had perhaps his best offensive game of his career vs the ole' strategy of defending, en route to a spectacular line of 46-6-8 on 16-24 shooting and an insane 9-11 three pointers made.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 121 - Phoenix 97 . Unlike the last time they played, Denver is well rested and comparatively healthy and they have proven to be a highly competitive group this season, which will most likely lead to their wanting to cleanse the bad taste left in their mouths even in victory, last time they played in Arizona. in addition to Murray's aforementioned exploits form downtown, Malik was also 5-9. This should change slightly with Booker not playing "effense" but there is no reason to believe Denver won't dominate tonight vs the NBA's second worst team by record. There are trap games within the NBA season to be sure. The last time they played was a good example. This game however, is not one of them.

______________________________________________________________________________________________

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Phoenix Suns Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
15	Ryan "Juancho" Anderson	PF	36	6' 10"	240 lbs	California	$20,421,546
3	Trevor "Indigo Montoya" Ariza	SF	33	6' 8"	215 lbs	UCLA	$15,000,000
22	Deandre "The _love" _Ayton	C	20	7' 1"	250 lbs	Arizona	$8,165,160
35	Dragan "Perfect As Is" Bender	PF	20	7' 1"	225 lbs	Honalee	$4,661,280
1	Devin "Text" Booker	SG	21	6' 6"	210 lbs	Kentucky	$3,314,365
25	Mikal "Sp? #1" Bridges	SF	22	6' 7"	210 lbs	Villanova	$3,552,960
0	Isaiah Canaan "Fodder"	PG	27	6' 0"	200 lbs	Murray State	$1,512,601
4	Tyson "The Vacuum" Chandler	C	36	7' 1"	240 lbs	High School	$13,585,000
11	Jamal "Joey" Crawford	SG	38	6' 5"	185 lbs	Michigan	$1,512,601
30	Troy "The Enforcer" Daniels	SG	27	6' 4"	205 lbs	Virginia Commonwealth	$3,258,539
21	Richaun "That's Levitation" Holmes	PF	25	6' 10"	235 lbs	Bowling Green	$1,600,520
20	Josh "Just Wait" Jackson	SF	21	6' 8"	200 lbs	Kansas	$6,041,520
8	George "Colorado" King	SF	24	6' 6"	220 lbs	Colorado	G-Money
14	De'Anthony "Melo" Melton	PG	20	6' 4"	200 lbs	USC	$949,000
2	Elie "Deuces" Okobo	PG	20	6' 2"	180 lbs	I'm Guessing Africa	$1,238,464
12	TJ "Scorin" Warren	SF	25	6' 8"	215 lbs	North Carolina State	$11,750,000

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	27	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$11,830,358
25	"Mutant" Malik Beasley	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$1,773,840
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	27	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
2	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	23	6' 2"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	24	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$16,517,857
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	23	6' 9"	230 lbs	Espana	$2,166,360
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	23	7' 0"	250 lbs	Gotham	$24,605,181
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	22	6' 10"	225 lbs	Syracuse	$1,874,640
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	23	6' 10"	234 lbs	Kentucky	$3,364,249
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	33	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$29,230,769
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	23	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,349,383
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	21	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$3,499,800
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	28	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$12,917,808
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	20	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$2,894,160
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	29	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,512,601
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	19	6' 9"	214 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	22	7' 0"	255 lbs	UCLA	G-Money

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Barton is a game time decision and all indications are that he'll give it a go. Harris is a game time decision with an achy hammy, as is Lyles with a wrist tendered by draining shot after shot. As for the the Suns, Booker is a game time decision with a balky back.

Re-Up: Yes I realize Phoenix' roster has changed since the first encounter and frankly my dear, I don't give a damn.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Data:

TPM™ Game 41 PHO

Jamal Murray: +17

Isaiah Thomas: Injured

Monte Morris: +22

Brandon Goodwin: +0

Gary Harris: N/A

Malik Beasley: +19

Torrey Craig: -12

Will Barton: +9

Juancho Hernangomez: -8

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: Injured

Paul Millsap: +9

Trey Lyles: N/A

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +17

Mason Plumlee: +2

Thomas Welsh: N/A

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 41 games +721

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 41 games +494

Brandon Goodwin: 9 games +17

Nick Young: 3 games -2

Gary Harris: 25 games +384

Malik Beasley: 41 games +263

Torrey Craig: 37 games +21

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 3 games +42

Juancho Hernangomez: 40 games +12

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 33 games +319

Trey Lyles: 39 games +210

Tyler Lydon: 13 games +11

Nikola Jokic: 41 games +880

Mason Plumlee: 41 games +306

Thomas Welsh: 8 games +17

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +17.59

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +12.04

Brandon Goodwin: +1.89

Nick Young: -0.67

Gary Harris: +15.36

Malik Beasley: +6.41

Torrey Craig: +0.57

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +14.00

Juancho Hernangomez: +0.30

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +9.67

Trey Lyles: 5.38

Tyler Lydon: +0.85

Nikola Jokic: +21.46

Mason Plumlee: +7.46

Thomas Welsh: +2.13

__________________________________________________________________________________________

TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 40:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets again go with their 8th iteration of the injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Beasley, Craig, Millsap & Jokic. The Suns counter with Melton, Warren, Jackson, Bridges & Ayton. Just as The Anchorman returned for the Nuggets last time they played Phoenix, The People's Champion returns for the first time since he was injured against the suns in game two this season. Fat's on the color commentary for the good guys in his adopted home and college stomping grounds in Arizona. "It's a Late arriving crowd" deadpans (I'm guessing) Marlowe. Ayton gets the scoring underway on the fast break, a full minute and a half into the game as both teams have been careless with the ball early. Craig is struggling defensively and the Nuggets trail by one with 7:23 to play. The lead is up to four at the time of the first break at 6:31.

Monte is first off the pine for Denver at 4:45, trailing by one. Craig is getting blown by seemingly each and every time they attack him. Phoenix leads by three at the time of the second break at 3:44. Denver has got to stop turning the ball over so frequently. Give Phoenix credit, they are really hustling on D and have been sound in their secondary rotations as well as playing the passing lanes. Plumlee, Juancho and WILL FUCKING BARTON are in at this time. Lyles and Harris appear to be nursing their injuries from the bench tonight. Denver ties it up with under two minutes to play. The Suns bench is outplaying their counterparts for Denver and they lead by seven with under a minute remaining. Make that 10 after an Oubre three, on the strength of a 10-0 run. Barton hits a three of his own after two misses from the floor. Denver is paced in TPM by Millsap +6 as they trail 23-31 after one.

Qtr2- The Suns lead 18-8 in PITP. All nine Nuggets players except for Craig have scored as the Suns lead by nine at 10:57. Phoenix has their biggest lead of 11 at the time of the initial break in the second period at 10:19. With my birthday looming tomorrow, I'm being reminded of my age by a Denny's commercial. $5.99? I recall when it was $2.99 that made them out of their minds. Juancho is cold from the floor and thus a huge obstacle to the Nuggets success. I've seen enough. Put in Big Honey and park Juancho and his defensive lead-feet on the pine. The lead is 13 at 8:10. Phoenix scores five straight vs Juancho with a bevy of Nuggets starters waiting at the scorers table, forcing Malone to call a timeout to stop the bleeding, down 15 at 7:33. With the team getting healthy it's time to allow Juancho to heal from the sidelines for a week or so in my estimation.

The starters for Denver are now in tact following the aforementioned timeout. Two straight layups from Beasley cut it to 11 with 6:19 to go. Oubre is absolutely killing the Nuggets from beyond the arc and the Suns lead by 16 over the currently inept Nuggets with 3:35 to go. Beasley is finally the first Nugget to reach double figures. Interestingly, as the debate of Juancho vs Craig continues in the Denver Stiffs comment sections of seemingly every thread, they are by far the two worst players tonight so... bench them both? Denver is in the penalty with 2:01 remaining, trailing by 12. A two-hockey-assisted three by Murray cuts it to nine. Craig nabs his third foul and he's replaced by Juancho?!?! I'd prefer to see Monte or even Goodwin or Lydon at this point. Jokic and Murray are both on 3D watch with respective lines of 9-8-3 & 8-5-4. Goodwin does check in but as a precaution to avoid Jamal's third foul. Denver is paced in TPM by Murray +10 & Beasley +11 as they trail 47-60 at the half.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr3- The Nuggets have their work cut out for them. They obviously have to value possessions more and Malone has to come up with a creative way to not play Craig or Juancho much if they hope to carve into this deficit. They have combined for one point while continually being burned defensively. I don't understand why the offensive rebounding prowess can't be a nightly thing for Craig considering how uninvolved he is otherwise offensively. I'd like to see Goodwin, who just yesterday tweeted that his goal is to be one of the league's top defenders, get more burn in some small-ball lineups this half. Fetch the stick Denver! Jokic makes just two in double figures for the Nuggets. Two straight turnovers by Denver force an early timeout by Malone exactly one minute into the third period, trailing by 15. I'd say bench them all had their bench not been outscored by 19 points in the first half.

Same song, second verse; could be better but it's worse. Time to change the tune Denver! The Nuggets have exactly ZERO second chance points. They lead the league in that department. Unreal! It's clear that Phoenix' strategy is to shade 2/3 men to both Jokic and Murray but the rest of the team (Beasley excluded) can't throw a pea in the ocean. The lead is 13 at 7:36. Denver is utilizing a small-ball lineup with Morris at the point, Murray at the 2 and Beasley at the three and have cut it to nine on the strength of a 9-2 run. It's stark how much better they look with Craig/Juancho on the bench tonight. Juancho checks in at 2:25, trailing by nine. Prove me wrong Juancho! Craig is in at 1:25 trailing by 11. Prove me wrong Torrey!. He scores his first deuce of the game soon after. Oubre of course banks one in at the buzzer! Denver is paced in TPM by Murray +11, Millsap/Morris +12, Jokic +16 & Beasley +18 as they trail 69-81 after three.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr4- Do you want to win Malone? No more Craig or Juancho and CERTAINLY no more Craig AND Juancho! They both remain out there with 10:35 to go, trailing by 14. Is Malone really resting the starters and thinking about tomorrow's game with 9:10 to go, down by 13?!?! This isn't a fucking schedule loss! They didn't play yesterday. Do something Malone! If anything, tomorrow is the schedule loss and you need to find a way to pull this one out. The first break occurs at 8:45, Juancho/Craig remain in and if the starters - Craig don't check in after the break then this loss is as much on Malone as it is the players. Leave Monte in for Craig aka the only lineup which has functioned tonight. The starters - 'Sap + Plumlee are in following said break and I commend thee Malone. A Beas-three cuts it to 10. A Warren three however, extends the lead to 15 with 7:10 remaining and it's time to get 'Sap in there for Plumlee. Malone calls a timeout to try to make one last attempt at pulling this out and despite the score, this has been one of the better in-game adjustment related games I've seen for Coach Malone.

He makes exactly that replacement and I have no idea what universe I'm living in any more. The Joker cuts it to 11 with a three point play at 5:43. He has a 2D with 21-10-4 after drilling a three, cutting it to eight at 5:19. Millsap FINALLY makes three in double figures. A three by Murray cuts it to seven as the Suns appear to be tightening up under pressure. Beasley earns a phantom call on a missed layup by Melton and re-injures his ankle but remains in as the lead is back up to 11 with 3:02 to play. Phoenix is going into prevent offense at 1:43 up by nine, as inexperienced teams often do but I fear there was simply too little time on the court for the one effective lineup (Morris, Murray, Beasley, Millsap & Jokic) to pull this one out for the Nuggets. The Suns lead by eight after a three point play by Monte at the 51 second mark. Time for the foul game and it's too little too late. Denver is paced in TPM by Murray/Jokic +17, Beasley +19 & Morris +22 as they fall to Phoenix, 93-102 in Arizona.
___________________________________________________________________________________________

Final Thoughts: As I stated last time they under-performed in Phoenix, "That was fun; let's never do that again." Craig/Juancho combine for a -20 TPM score! Tomorrow's piece will be data only as It's my birthday so I'm going with friends to a matinee showing of that new dog movie to have a good cry, as any good 42 year old macho man does. I'm sad however that my #41 Blair Rasmussen jersey I love so much has slightly less relevance now. Credit where due, The Suns played their asses off tonight. It's clear that it will be some time before we can expect any level of consistency out of the injured trio of Millsap/Harris/Barton. Man, the recap comment section will NOT be fun tonight I fear. I think I'll take my dog on a nice long walk instead. My stellar prediction game suffered it's first blowout of the season tonight.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

We Suck Again!

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.
Denver Nuggets Nuggets vs Suns coverage Bright Side Of The Sun