Former Nugget Donovan Mitchell has had a sophomore slump of sorts, at least in terms of efficiency.

And as a result, Denver won that trade, right? ...RIGHT?

The band is back together!

Nuggets vs Jazz II: The Nuggets can not expect the same ol' song vs this resurgent Jazz band.

When last these two teams squared off in game nine of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from five players led by Jamal Murray: +17. Only Juancho: -4 was in the red for that match-up as the Nuggets won by a large margin but it was still very much in question until a concerted effort in the fourth quarter buried the Jazz, by a final score of 103-88 that night in Denver.

In that game Plumlee stuck a buzzer beating three midway through the fourth period as if that was his go-to move and provided us with celebration gifs for perpetuity.

As for this game, this is a far more challenging Utah team to face this go-'round, largely because they have gained confidence as their tumultuous first half schedule has begun to lighten up. Despite their early season struggles, this is a top four team in the West IMHO and the pre-season prognostication of them challenging for the WCF is closer to being accurate than is their current record.

Now here are some numbers you can use:

Utah gives up 105.0 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 106.2

The Jazz average 108.3 PPG offensively to the Nuggets 111.3

This results in a net rating for Utah of +3.3 and +5.1 for Denver

Utah is a respectable 13-13 on the road while Denver is a nearly unbeatable 20-4 at home

In terms of conference record, the Jazz are 14-13 to the Nuggets 18-9 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved as the Western Conference is as much as ever, the stiffer competition.

Denver is also the only team in the league that is undefeated (6-0) within their division which also means next to nothing aside from using it as a barometer in the strength of competition level

Denver of course is second in the Western Conference standings, 1.0 games behind the Warriors while Utah currently resides in 7th place in the Western Conference, 7.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)

UTA: RPG 45.3 APG 24.7 SPG 8.48 BPG 5.48 FG% .460 FT% .732 3% .343

DEN: RPG 46.7 APG 27.5 SPG 7.87 BPG 4.51 FG% .468 FT% .751 3% .358

The numbers on whole are fairly even but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone. To that end, Denver has won 14 of their last 19, five of their last seven while Utah has been victorious in 12 of their last 19 games but have lost only once in the previous seven, last time out vs Portland

For Denver, individual consistency is simply not a thing for this squad so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night.

With that said, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry; a natural scorer/creator and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without I.T. and MPJ.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, Utah is amongst the very few teams who play at an even slower pace than Denver which in this particular season actually favors the Nuggets who are still deadly in the open court, even if these opportunities tend to arise less frequently due to their more deliberate pace (read, they walk it up the court and call set plays too fucking much.)

Additionally, due to their wingspans and defensive mindset, the Jazz are EXCELLENT at playing the passing lanes so it will be incumbent on Jokic hitting his outside jumpers as a means to unclog the paint and create more space with which to orchestrate the offense. Conversely, this is amongst the very few teams that Denver out-shoots from the charity stripe (in addition to all other areas) which is obviously advantageous as no Utah team in my 42 years on the planet has ever been above fouling early and often.

For deeper analysis on the ins and outs of the Utah Jazz, please feel free to peruse my earlier piece on them here:

Prediction: Denver 105 (lap ) - Utah 97. I expect a better defensive effort out of the Nuggets given Malone's displeasure in recent games and having had four days off with which to re-integrate the recently re-introduced trio of Millsap/Harris/Barton. I hope however, for a Nuggets Blowout victory so that we can possibly get our first look at the finally healthy Jared Vanderbilt (his jerseys are available in the below link.) Given that this game is being played at one of the most difficult arenas in the NBA on national TV I think we should expect the best from both teams and a close one. I personally believe that the Nuggets best is slightly better than that of their counterparts, that's all.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs):If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Utah Jazz Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
24	Grayson "Plumlee" Allen	SG	23	6' 5"	198 lbs	Duke	$2,074,320
13	Tony "Stop Dunking! Shawn Is No Relation, I Swear!" Bradley	C	20	6' 10"	248 lbs	North Carolina	$1,679,520
10	Alec "B-Line" Burks	SG	27	6' 6"	214 lbs	Colorado	$11,536,515
34	Tyler "Half-Man, Half-Cabbage" Cavanaugh	PF	24	6' 9"	238 lbs	George Washington	G-Money
99	Jae "Corn Chowder" Crowder	PF	28	6' 6"	235 lbs	Marquette	$7,305,825
11	Dante "Tough Luck" Exum	PG	23	6' 6"	190 lbs	Downunda	$9,600,000
15	Derrick "I'll Do You No" Favors	PF	27	6' 10"	265 lbs	Georgia Tech	$16,900,000
27	Rudy "The Stifle Tower" Gobert	C	26	7' 1"	245 lbs	Francais	$23,241,573
2	"Not Your Average" Joe Ingles	SF	31	6' 8"	226 lbs	Downunda	$13,045,455
45	Donovan "Lyles/Lydon" Mitchell	SG	22	6' 3"	215 lbs	Louisville	$3,111,480
30	"Nasty" Naz Mitrou-Long	SG	25	6' 4"	218 lbs	Iowa State	G-Money
25	Raul "Portuguese R Pronounced H. Neat-O!" Neto	PG	26	6' 1"	179 lbs	Brasilia	$2,150,000
31	"Gorgeous" Georges Niang	SF	25	6' 8"	230 lbs	Iowa State	$1,512,601
23	"Mile High" Royce O'Neale	SF	25	6' 6"	226 lbs	Baylor	$1,378,242
3	"Ravishing" Ricky Rubio	PG	28	6' 4"	190 lbs	Espana	$14,975,000
22	Thabo "I'll Stab You In Da Club With My Swiss Army Knife" Sefolosha	SF	34	6' 7"	220 lbs	Switzerlandia	$5,250,000
33	Ekpe "Not Me But" Udoh	C	31	6' 10"	245 lbs	Baylor	$3,360,000

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	27	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$11,830,358
25	"Mutant" Malik Beasley	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$1,773,840
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	27	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
2	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	23	6' 2"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	24	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$16,517,857
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	23	6' 9"	230 lbs	Espana	$2,166,360
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	23	7' 0"	250 lbs	Gotham	$24,605,181
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	22	6' 10"	225 lbs	Syracuse	$1,874,640
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	23	6' 10"	234 lbs	Kentucky	$3,364,249
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	33	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$29,230,769
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	23	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,349,383
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	21	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$3,499,800
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	28	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$12,917,808
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	20	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$2,894,160
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	29	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,512,601
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	19	6' 9"	214 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	22	7' 0"	255 lbs	UCLA	G-Money

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt is day to day as he prepares to make his NBA debut Juancho is out with an abdominal strain. As for Utah, Bradley is out with a knee injury, as are Neto, Exum and Sefolosha with Groin, Ankle & hamstring injuries respectively.

Re-up: Yes, I'm aware that Utah traded for Korver rendering my above roster chart inaccurate. Are you aware of what a pain in the ass those things are to alter?

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Data:

TPM™ Game 46 UTA

Jamal Murray: -9

Isaiah Thomas: Injured

Monte Morris: +5

Brandon Goodwin: G-League

Gary Harris: +12

Malik Beasley: +0

Torrey Craig: +1

Will Barton: +14

Juancho Hernangomez: +0

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: -5

Trey Lyles: +9

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +33

Mason Plumlee: +2

Thomas Welsh: G-League

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 46 games +788

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 46 games +536

Brandon Goodwin: 12 games +19

Nick Young: 3 games -2

Gary Harris: 28 games +416

Malik Beasley: 46 games +292

Torrey Craig: 42 games +17

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 7 games +75

Juancho Hernangomez: 44 games +5

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 38 games +330

Trey Lyles: 44 games +257

Tyler Lydon: 17 games -1

Nikola Jokic: 46 games +1034

Mason Plumlee: 46 games +352

Thomas Welsh: 9 games +18

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +17.13

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +11.65

Brandon Goodwin: +1.58

Nick Young: -0.67

Gary Harris: +14.86

Malik Beasley: +6.35

Torrey Craig: +0.40

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +10.71

Juancho Hernangomez: +0.11

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +8.68

Trey Lyles: 5.84

Tyler Lydon: -0.06

Nikola Jokic: +22.48

Mason Plumlee: +7.65

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 45:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets return to their 2nd iteration of the injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Craig, Millsap & Jokic. The Jazz counter with Rubio, Mitchell, Ingles. Favors & Gobert. Ingles gets things underway with his go to and only move, the corner three. Utah is focused and jump out to an 8-0 lead, energizing the SLC crowd. Slow starts vs quality teams have been an issue this season for Denver. Murray is struggling on the defensive end and Utah leads by eight at 7:00, the time of the initial break in the first period. Harris gets Rudy in the grapes on a drive and I hate to say it but that looked pretty intentional. Don't be Draymond Gary. Murray earns his second questionable foul but he remains in at 6:30, trailing by eight. Plumlee and Morris are first off the pine for the good guys at 6:15. Barton is in with 5:20 remaining, trailing by six. Utah is winning the battle for the arc supremacy.

This combined with careless ball-handling by Denver / active hands defensively for Utah are the difference thus-far in an 11 point game at 3:07. Lyles checks in at this time. Plumlee and Favors are having words and we've got ourselves a donnybrook! Favors clearly started this one by pulling Mason's arm unnecessarily after the play. Suspensions will likely occur unfortunately, as players left the bench. This SUCKS! If this ESPN play-by-play analyst of unknown identity has his way, all five starters for the Nuggets will be suspended for the remainder of their ever-loving careers. Favors and Plumlee have both apparently been ejected. I hate the idea of losing players to suspension but it's good to see Denver finally playing with vigor. Beasley is also in following the ejections. Denver cuts is to six and they are clearly more energized with under a minute to go. Denver is paced in TPM by Craig/Barton +5 as they trail 24-30 after one.

Qtr2- The Nuggets trail by just one on the strength of a 9-2 run. Barton is first to reach double figures for the Nuggets as he sticks two straight from beyond the arc. Morris ties it up at 40 with 7:42 remaining in this action-packed inter-division game. Korver is Killing and Utah leads by three at 6:45. Denver is 2-9 / Utah 8-17 from distance thus-far so it's a minor miracle that the Jazz lead by only four with 5:34 to go. The Nuggets need to attack Gobert and Big Honey needs to utilize his stellar pump-fakes so that Rudy nabs a crucial third foul. Murray is getting torched from three point land defensively and the Jazz lead by one at 3:42. Three straight from downtown by Mitchell and the Jazz lead by five, as Jokic and Crowder start jawing at one another.

Again this was precipitated by an unnecessary elbow by Crowder and the Jazz. The officials have got to start watching this one. I mean they are watching half of it as Denver has earned three straight questionable calls in under a minute. The lead is up to seven and the crowd has taken to booing Jokic each time he touches it. The Joker should no doubt relish in playing the villain and he makes two in double figures for the Nuggets on an &1 of the make-up-call variety. Gobert fouls twice in one offensive play, once on a backside mauling and the other on an egregious push from behind and is instead awarded with two points and the officiating in this second period has gone down the shitter fast. I LOATHE how officials allow a boisterous crowd and momentum to color that which actually occurs on the court. Denver is paced in TPM by Barton +13 and Jokic +16 as they trail 58-65 at the half.

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Qtr3- The clear message prior to this game by Bond Villain Quinn Snyder and his staff was to clutch, grab, jaw and rake and thus-far, the referees have rewarded Utah for this strategy. Unfortunately for Denver, we should expect a tight whistle in the second half as the refs atone for their sins and an uglified brand of basketball which clearly Favors (pun intended) Utah. Denver needs more out of Millsap and ESPECIALLY Murray if they hope to steal away with the W tonight. Big Honey is on 3d Watch with a line of 11-5-5 as the second half gets under way. No players for either squad are in any sort of serious individual foul trouble which is mind bottling. The lead is nine as Rubio sticks yet another three on a missed assignment once again by Murray who is currently -15 in TPM! Millsap is REALLY struggling as well in his old stomping grounds. Rubio flops and Tim Donaghy calls Murray with his third foul. The lead is nine at the time of the first break at 7:43. At this point, Malone calls a time out as a means to give Donaghy (who I'm referring to all of tonight's officials as henceforth) an earful.

Harris makes three in double figures for Denver. 'Sap is blatantly smacked in the face whilst dribbling, resulting in a no call and a three on the other end for Ingles. UNBELIEVABLE! The lead is now 12 or as they say in SLC, 24. Murray is NOT fouled in attempting a three but is awarded three make-up shots which he of course bricks the front end of. The lead for Utah is 13 at 6:18. Utah still leads by 12 at 2:39 and it's frankly a miracle that Denver is even in it with the Jazz' uncharacteristically hot three point shooting and the sheer carelessness with the ball the Nuggets have exhibited. The Joker has his 2D with a 17-10-6 line at this point. He takes a seat and Denver must hold serve until he's reinserted if they care to remain competitive. Juancho checks in for the first time at 2:15, trailing by nine. It's Utah's turn to get upset with this piss-poor officiating and rightly so. Barton cuts it to eight with a three and credit the Nuggets bench for outplaying their counterparts for Utah. Denver is paced in TPM by Barton +16 & Jokic +22 as they trail 77-86 after three.

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Qtr4- The first two fouls of the fourth period go against the Jazz! Hallelujah! Barton cuts it to six with a runner. Denver is 5-21 from distance and SOMEHOW in this one still. Lyles cuts it to four with a J. The bench has played well but it's time to get the stars back into the game for Denver as Mitchell has yet to sit in the second half. Utah has three team fouls at 9:11 as Jokic returns. Lyles/Morris make five in double figures for Denver as Jamal enters at 8:51, down six. Jokic can't buy one from downtown tonight. Mitchell is hoisting away still and sinks one from beyond the arc that hits every last bit of the rim, giving Utah a 12 point lead with 8:10 to play. Utah =17-36 Denver = 5-22 from three point range! Gobert FINALLY earns his 3rd foul but by my count he's fouled out twice already. the Nuggets trail by 10 but will be in the penalty with Utah's next foul with 7:52 remaining. The Blue Arrow FINALLY drills a three, his first bucket since the four minute mark of the first period! Barton unfortunately fouls Crowder who gets a four point play and an 11 point lead for his squad. Both teams are now in the penalty with their next team foul at 6:37 with Utah up by 10. Denver's presumed starting five (pictured above) appears to be in there to close this one out for the first time since way back in game two. Jokic gets his 4th foul for elbowing the somehow still not disqualified Gobert, which isn't a terrible call by Donaghy except that Nikola was mauled three times prior to touching the ball.

Murray nabs his 4th foul soon after on still another phantom call and Utah is shooting free-throws from here on out when fouled. Mitchell draws a 5th foul on Jokic. It'd be nice if Big Honey or Murray got the star calls that this second year player does. It pays to get highlight reel dunks I s'pose. Denver trails by nine at 4:30 after two from the charity stripe for Jokic. Utah is utilizing the Harden offense; get it to Mitchell and GTFO of the way which on this night is working. Jokic FINALLY sticks one from distance and the lead is down to six at 3:50. For the second time in the second half Barton fouls Crowder on a three and Jae impossibly heaves it in for a four point play OFF THE GLASS FROM THE CORNER!. He misses the FT but This could very well be the death rattle we're hearing as the lead is back up to nine at 3:05. Jokic cuts it to seven at 1:35. A Barton three cuts it to four at 1:20. Gobert who is inexplicably 6-8 from the line hits two and it's nervous time for Denver. The Nuggets commit their second five second inbound violation at 1:14 and that should pretty much seal it. Mitchell recklessly undercuts an air-borne Craig who hits the floor hard on a rebound attempt. Denver is paced in TPM by Harris +12, Barton +14 & Jokic +33 as they fall in SLC, 108-114.
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Final Thoughts: I disapprove of Malone's decision to remove Beasley from the rotation (for the most part) in favor of Craig and can only hope that once Barton is inserted that Craig is utilized as he should be... rarely and situationally as a defender. Lets hope that the PBP commentator didn't color the league's opinion and no suspensions are levied against the Nuggets.

This was a rare game where Denver played juuuust well enough to win despite the three-point discrepancy, so yes I AM blaming the officiating tonight, esPECIALLY for the momentum changes and crowd involvement their judgements created. I'm sorry but it was eight on five from the moment of the Plumlee-Favors fracas on. Where were Millsap and Murray tonight? GOTTA start developing personal consistency. Craig played a team high 38:23 minutes, Beasley a measly 7:48.

We Suck Again!

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

Denver Nuggets Nuggets vs Jazz coverage SLC Dunk