FanPost

TPM™ 2018-'19 Game 9 vs Utah

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Former Nugget Donovan Mitchell was everywhere last season. This will most likely not be the case tonight, thankfully.

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And as a result, Denver won that trade, right? ...RIGHT?

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Keepin' the seat warm for Barton, who seems to be in a best case time-frame in terms of returning from an injury that required surgery. He should be back in the lineup by around December 15th.

Nuggets vs Utah: Skirmish time; Star truant, Spanish turbulent, Stifle Tower, Salt Lake team or: The Ingles initiated kerfuffle-scuffle-shuffle.

When last these two teams squared off, Denver enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players, led by Mason Plumlee +11, Will Barton +17, Jamal Murray +21 and Trey Lyles (in something of a revenge-game), with a tasty +32. Only one player was represented in the red for that encounter, Beasley -1, en route to a low scoring, 99-91 victory at home for Denver in game 38 of last season. Jokic shot a paltry 3-13 from the floor, undoubtedly impacted by the wing-span of Gobert but Lyles/Murray shot a combined 9-15 from distance. Denver has historically struggled vs the Rubio-Favors P&R, as Denver Stiffs writer Ryan Blackburn illustrated in his pre-game piece. Fortunately, in their most recent two encounters, Denver was able to mitigate damage to some degree in that area.

As for this game, The good guys will have to contend with a couple of WWE superstars in "Gorgeous" Georges Niang and "Ravishing" Ricky Rubio. Something I'll be keeping an eye on is the match-up between Rubio & Murray. Per Yahoo sports, without Mitchell next to him this year, Rubio has averages of 18.4 points, 10.4 dimes and 2.4 treys per 36 minutes and the numbers were similar last season as well. Jamal got off to a blazing start last time before Rubio put the defensive clamps down as few NBA point guards can (though apparently his effort has been inconsistent this season, as illustrated by SLC Dunk writer hansenjames in his pre-game piece) and The Blue Arrow all but disappeared in the second half. It's no secret that ball control has been an issue in terms of dribbling for Jamal, so he has to see a few shots go down early.

It's not talked about much aside from how it relates to shooting but all muscle memory is affected by the unquantifiable but unquestionably real phenomena that is "being in the zone." I'm not going to pretend that I was ever any sort of elite level athlete but I was definitely well above average in every sport I played and can at least speak from basketball-specific experience on this matter: If a player is confident, the ball seems to be on a string, shots fall, defensive intensity is compulsory, fatigue is diminished or altogether un-noticed, rotations defensively and movement within the offense become second nature. It's when players are in their own head, thinking rather than flowing freely, that slumps in any and usually all areas arise. For Jamal, the effectiveness of everything else is predicated by his jumper finding the bullseye. We sometimes forget that these are human beings and not programmable robots that we can just impart code and expect them to perform as the data would indicate. That fails to account for the nuances of human existence and non-data such as the aforementioned zone.

Another player who traditionally gives Denver fits is Derrick Favors, though I expect his pick & pop antics to be diminished by the addition of a red-hot Millsap, who never had the opportunity to defend him last season, apart from game one of the year when he had yet to gel with his new teammates. Otherwise, Derrick is a tough match-up for Jokic defensively, as is Gobert so the key tonight for Big Honey, will be to make hay on the other end of the court. To succeed in doing so, Jokic has got to be effective with his outside jumper so that Gobert is forced out of the lane, in turn, opening spaces for players to move without the ball which is really the lubricant of Nikola's extraordinary machine.

It was heartening to hear Coach Malone speak on the importance of going right at Gobert in the hopes of causing individual and team foul trouble, something Utah readers will agree, they are no stranger to, dating all the way back to the fantastic Sloan-Stockton-Malone Jazz teams of the 80's. Sure, this will sans-doubt also result in several, embarrassing posters but as I've often espoused, Denver entirely neglects paying proper attention to the game within the game; the importance of foul discrepancy, particularly as it relates to individual foul trouble.

Additionally, Utah's roster is composed almost entirely of professional basketball players and I mean this in the most complimentary way possible. They can expect sizable all-around contributions from Ingles and Crowder, steady contribution from Favors, sometimes ridiculous stat-lines from Gobert, near-all-star performances from the Mitchell-less Rubio and on any given night Exum and the two Colorado products, Burks/O'Neale are capable of marked contribution. Alec in particular seems to perform well in Denver.

This is the second game of a B2B for Utah while Denver has had a day to recuperate from their brief but taxing road trip.

Prediction: Denver 97 - Utah 91 in an NBA passe, low-scoring repeat of their most recent, all be it long ago, duel in Denver.

Go Nuggets!

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well s CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Utah Jazz Roster

Coach: Quin "Evil Grin" Snyder

NO Name POS Age HT WT College Salary
24 Grayson "Plumlee" Allen SG 23 6' 5" 198 lbs
Duke $2,074,320
13 Tony "Stop Dunking! Shawn Is No Relation, I Swear!" Bradley
C 20 6' 10" 248 lbs North Carolina $1,679,520
10 Alec "B-Line" Burks SG 27 6' 6" 214 lbs Colorado $11,536,515
34 Tyler "Half-Man, Half-Cabbage" Cavanaugh PF 24 6' 9" 238 lbs George Washington G-Money
99 Jae "Corn Chowder" Crowder PF 28 6' 6" 235 lbs Marquette $7,305,825
11 Dante "Tough Luck" Exum PG 23 6' 6" 190 lbs Downunda
$9,600,000
15 Derrick "I'll Do You No" Favors PF 27 6' 10" 265 lbs
Georgia Tech $16,900,000
27 Rudy "The Stifle Tower" Gobert C 26 7' 1" 245 lbs Francais
$23,241,573
2 "Not Your Average" Joe Ingles SF 31 6' 8" 226 lbs Downunda
$13,045,455
45 Donovan "Lyles/Lydon" Mitchell SG 22 6' 3" 215 lbs Louisville $3,111,480
30 "Nasty" Naz Mitrou-Long SG 25 6' 4" 218 lbs Iowa State G-Money
25 Raul "Portuguese R Pronounced H. Neat-O!" Neto PG 26 6' 1" 179 lbs Brasilia
$2,150,000
31 "Gorgeous" Georges Niang SF 25 6' 8" 230 lbs Iowa State $1,512,601
23 "Mile High" Royce O'Neale SF 25 6' 6" 226 lbs Baylor $1,378,242
3 "Ravishing" Ricky Rubio PG 28 6' 4" 190 lbs Espana
$14,975,000
22 Thabo "I'll Stab You In Da Club With My Swiss Army Knife" Sefolosha SF 34 6' 7" 220 lbs Switzerlandia
$5,250,000
33 Ekpe "Not Me But" Udoh C 31 6' 10" 245 lbs Baylor $3,360,000

Denver Nuggets Roster

Coach: Michael "Post" Malone

NO Name POS
Age
HT
WT
College
Salary
23 DeVaughn "DAP" Akoon-Purcell SG 25 6' 6" 200 lbs Illinois State G-money
5 Will "The People's Champion" Barton SG 27 6' 6" 190 lbs Memphis $11,830,358
25 Malik "The Beas knees" Beasley SG 21 6' 5" 195 lbs Florida State $1,773,840
3 Torrey "FUCKING" Craig SF 27 6' 7" 215 lbs USC Upstate $2,000,000
14 "Just" Gary Harris SG 24 6' 4" 210 lbs Michigan State $16,517,857
41 Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez PF 23 6' 9" 230 lbs Espana $2,166,360
15 Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Brow Beater)
C 23 7' 0" 250 lbs Gotham $24,605,181
20 Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon PF 22 6' 10" 225 lbs Syracuse $1,874,640
7 Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles PF 22 6' 10" 234 lbs Kentucky $3,364,249
4 Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap PF 33 6' 8" 246 lbs Louisiana Tech $29,230,769
11 "Meanwhile" Monte "Rose" Morris PG 23 6' 3" 175 lbs Iowa State $1,349,383
27 Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray PG 21 6' 4" 207 lbs Kentucky $3,499,800
24 Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee PF 28 6' 11" 235 lbs Duke $12,917,808
1 Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr. PF 20 6' 10" 210 lbs Missouri $2,894,160
0 Isaiah "Ice" Thomas PG 29 5' 9" 185 lbs Washington $1,512,601
8 Jarred "Macadamia Nut? I Dunno" Vanderbilt PF 19 6' 9" 214 lbs Kentucky $838,464
45 Thomas "Irvine" Welsh C 22 7' 0" 255 lbs UCLA G-Money

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Finally, Barton had successful surgery on his abductor and hip. He will be evaluated for return in mid-December. As for Utah, Mitchell is most likely out with a hamstring injury as is Neto, while Favors and Burks are questionable with knee/hand ailments, respectively.

Re-up: Mitchell is now listed as probable, rendering much of my labor intensive pre-game work inaccurate.

Data: Open this link in a new tab for the definition of TPM™

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TPM™ Game 9 UTA

Jamal Murray: +17

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +5

Gary Harris: +13

Malik Beasley: +13

Torrey Craig: +2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +2

Will Barton: N/A

Juancho Hernangomez: -4

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +7

Trey Lyles: +2

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +15

Mason Plumlee: +13

Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 9 games +121

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 9 games +110

Gary Harris: 9 games +147

Malik Beasley: 9 games +27

Torrey Craig: 8 games -2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 3 games -2

Will Barton: 2 games +33

Juancho Hernangomez: 8 games +18

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 9 games +81

Trey Lyles: 9 games +62

Tyler Lydon: 4 games +1

Nikola Jokic: 9 games +163

Mason Plumlee: 9 games +70

Thomas Welsh: 3 games -1

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +13.44

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +12.22

Gary Harris: +16.33

Malik Beasley: +3.00

Torrey Craig: -0.25

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: -0.67

Will Barton: +16.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +2,25

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +9.00

Trey Lyles:+6.89

Tyler Lydon: +0.25

Nikola Jokic: +18.11

Mason Plumlee: +7.78

Thomas Welsh: -0.33

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TPM Per-Minute Splits Through Game7:

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*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets trot out their injury-replacement starting five, consisting of The Blue Arrow, Just Gary Harris, Torrey FUCKING Craig, The Anchorman & Big Honey. The Jazz counter with Rubio, Mitchell, Ingles, Favors and Gobert. The Nuggets have always had the worst bumper music for their tv broadcast and when I say always I mean always as I was born the year after they joined the NBA from the ABA and have been a die-hard fan all of my life. The Pepsi Center crowd seems more raucous than at any point in recent memory. Gobert wins the tip and Denver seals the victory. Predictably, Denver looks to be focused against a quality opponent. Sadly it's as predictable as their lack of focus vs poorer teams. The Nuggets lead 11-9 at 7:15. The official scoring algorithm has been generous with Big Honey in the assist department thus-far. This is not a complaint. Denver has the 2nd longest active, home-game winning streak at 11 games, trailing only Philly's 16. Jokic is not looking to score and the paint is a parking lot as a result. It's all knotted up at 13 with 5:14 to go.

Morris and Juancho are first off the pine at this point for Murray & Craig. This game will most likely not finish in the 100's for either squad. Seemingly every shoot is being taken within seconds of the shot clock's expiration, for both teams. Jokic finally shoots the damned ball, more than half-way into the period and draws a foul on Gobert as a result. Lyles is in soon after to face his former team, as Millsap gets a breather. Utah is going under every screen and Denver is still failing to convert. The Nuggets lead by four at 3:15 following a Morris three and a post-up on Mitchell by Lyles. Plumlee is in for Jokic and Murray is back in for Harris with 2:40 to play. It's once again even after a four point play by Crowder. Beasley is seemingly the final reserve to check in, with 34 seconds to play in a tie game. No players for either squad are in any sort of serious, individual foul trouble. The Nuggets are paced in TPM by Jokic +9 as they are even-Steven at 25 points a piece after one.

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Qtr2- Big Honey is currently on pace for a line of 12-16-24 but as usual he leaves us wanting more, as only his particular skill-set can. The bench unit for Denver is struggling defensively tonight, especially in secondary rotations. Denver leads by three at 8:58, scoring nearly everything in the paint. Harris is now running the point for the Nuggets who trial by one at 7:18. Beasley is denied continuation on a foul by Rubio; a blatant missed call by the official. Marlowe breaks out his first "Wilt Chamberlain on a ladder couldn't get to that one" line of the year, on a failed alley-oop to Mitchell, as the rest of the starters begin filtering back into the game. Murray returns and the starters are in tact at 5:11. Malone should have every Nuggets player watch a reel of Rubio close-outs at the three point line. Denver leads by three with 4:22 to play.

Denver's defense by the starting five has been excellent here in the second quarter and the lead is five at 3:02, on the strength of an 8-0 run. Malone is about to blow a fuse after a no-call on an obvious Mitchell travel. Break out the Harris gif / replace his face with Donovan's. Denver has shot only five free throws at this point which is entirely unacceptable. Murray is finally the first Nugget to reach double figures in scoring. Harris joins him in short order. Jokic/Harris remain in with two fouls in an oversight by Malone, with less than a minute to play. Harris is stiffed in the junk by Gobert, drawing a foul on Ingles?!?! One of Malone's assistants was following my piece and Jokic is replaced by Mason, as Gary heads to the line. No players for either squad are in any sort of serious, individual foul trouble. Denver is paced in TPM by Harris +9 as they lead a tight one, 47-46 at the half.

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Qtr3- The pace for Jokic has dropped considerably after a quiet second period. It now stands at 6-8-14. He looks slightly more aggressive to begin the third. I take that back, the optics there were due to a designed play, no doubt drawn as such as a means to light a fire under him. Jamal has GOT to stop throwing one handed entry passes. This simple, fundamental change could make all the difference in the world for him. The reason you use two hands is so that you can take it back if the man cuts or becomes covered. Craig and Harris have done a decent job in contesting Mitchell's jumpers tonight. Utah leads by one at 9:25. Millsap is now the third Nugget to reach double digits in scoring. Jokic has become visibly upset by Murray's last two, nonchalant entry passes, if body language is a fair indication. Denver is back up by three at 8:34. They come out of the timeout sluggishly and lose the lead quickly, as it's now a two point spread, favoring the Jazz.

Utah appears to be burning all they have in the tank in this B2B right now. Harris FINALLY sticks one from downtown. Denver is back up by one at 6:11. They may just need one if mot all of the bench players to get hot in this one if they hope to pull out the victory. Jokic once again passes up a layup, followed by a wide open three, as Utah has it's biggest lead of seven points at 4:40. Denver seems to be wilting under physical pressure as is their wont. Christ on a crutch, how long is Gobert allowed to camp out in the paint? The lead is now nine, on the strength of a 19-7 Utah run. Somebody close the damned gym window! Denver now has 15 turnovers, seven in the third quarter alone. No players for either squad are in any sort of serious, individual foul trouble. Denver is paced in TPM by Harris +11, as they trail 73-68 after three.

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Qtr4- The Nuggets can not continue to allow Utah to impose their will and uglify the flow. Jokic has 11 assists, yet he's not really all that close to sniffing a 2D which goes a long way in illustrating why Denver trails. Denver can not catch a break from the officials tonight. Every 50/50 call is going against but make no mistake; the calls are going to the aggressor as is usually the case. Denver cuts it to three on a multi-hockey-assisted three by Beasley. While not confident in his J tonight, at least Jamal is wisely attacking the rim. He does just that resulting in a three point play, cutting the lead to one. Another three by Beasley gives Denver the two point lead and the large crowd finally has something to cheer about. HOLY FUCKING SHIT! When Plumlee hits a three as the shot clock expires, it may just be your night. Denver leads by five on the strength of an 11-0 run at 8:36. The bench is stepping up when the team sorely needed just that. Mitchell appears to have aggravated his hammy on an ill-advised circus shot and you just hate to see that. Upon second glance it appears to be an ankle injury.

It would be entirely understandably for Utah to deflate and throw in the towel here, again on the second night of a B2B, with their young star once again injured. Having said that, that's the last thing I'd expect from this savvy crew. Denver stretches the lead to nine at 6:43. Utah is deploying the punch-a-Plum strategy, sending the big man for Denver to the line. He Misses both. The crowd salutes Plumlee loudly as he's replaced by Big Honey. Beasley extends the run to 19-0 for the good guys with another three and he's the 4th Nugget in double digits. The outstanding run finally ends on an Ingles free throw of all things. Murray finally solves the entry pass issue with a beauty to Jokic for the dunk. While I'm displeased to have been wrong in my prediction, The Jazz now appear to be phoning it in following the unfortunate injury sustained by Mitchell. Holy hell, he's back in at 5:10 which is exceedingly impressive. Time to buckle down Denver. Turnabout is fair play and the Nuggets are now employing the rake-a-Rudy technique. Mitchell is gutsy but he's gotta sit down. He simply can't move his feet enough to defend. Jokic finally has a 2D with 7-11-16 with just under 2 minutes to play, now leading by 20. It's officially recycling time as Lydon, DAP and others check in for the Nuggets. Denver is paced in TPM by Harris/Beasley/Plumlee +13 Jokic +15 & Murray +17 as they bury the Jazz in the fourth, en route to a 103-88 victory,

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Final Thoughts: This one oughta put Denver under the century mark defensively as an average. Jokic regresses in TPM for the seventh consecutive game. On paper, to those who didn't witness it, this one will appear as a blowout but it was decidedly anything but at the time frame in which Mitchell went down and Plumlee impossibly drilled a three, early in the fourth quarter. The numbers often lie. Denver played excellent D tonight, particularly in the second half for example but a large portion of the productivity in terms of numbers is due to fatigue and injury, aka unquantifiable entities. Don't want to be a Debbie downer though. Any win vs Utah is huge and Denver is legit! The Nuggets are still undefeated in games in which they lose the opening tip. Denver extends their home winning streak to 12 games!

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The Nuggets Win!

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