So these two are pretty decent.

The marque match-up with Jamal vs DeRozan a close second... well I was half right in the last time. The Spurs duo certainly did their part anyway.

Keepin' the seat warm for Barton, Harris and Millsap.

Nuggets vs Spurs: Denver turnabout is fair play

When last these two teams squared off in game 32 of this season (I remember it as though it were a meal ago) , the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from five players led by Malik Beasley: +26. Only Trey Lyles: -1 was in the red for that match-up as Denver's starters shit the bed and left Beasley, Goodwin and the recycling squad to clean up the refuse, en route to a 103-111 defeat in Texas.

As for this game, there is nothing additional which needs to be said. If you are reading this there is roughly a zero percent chance you didn't read my previous piece in the last game against this Spurs team on Wednesday and if somehow you missed it and then decided "I've been meaning to check out TPM, just not in the first game of a home & home", their team description and the data/analysis can all be found here.

I was off by a total of four points (I shorted each team two) in my prediction for said, previous encounter and I also stated that it'd be silly to expect anything but a split in this home and home series, so I'm not only going to stick to that but simply reverse the scores in my pre-game prediction. I'm more likely to be incorrect in doing the latter, as Denver is a better home team than is San Antonio while also being the drastically better road team but everything is perpetually up in the air in terms of prediction, until the Nuggets get some healthy bodies on the floor.

To that end, Millsap appears to be way ahead of schedule and Harris could rejoin the team as soon as Saturday in Phoenix. While no date is official for either player or Barton/Vanderbilt/Porter/Thomas, the three starters who are out all seem to be nearing a return.

Prediction: Denver 113- Spurs 105.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

San Antonio Spurs Roster

Denver Nuggets Roster

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Harris is due to return any day from numerous ailments of lower extremities. Millsap had his first full practice on December 26th but is not rushing back (though clearly ahead of schedule.) Murray is "banged up" everywhere; specifically with a bone bruise of the right shin as well as a right forearm injury (after the second game vs San Antonio you can go ahead and add twisted as fuck ankle to the list) but he's tough as nails and gutting it out. Barton had successful surgery on his abductor/hip and is week to week (whatever that means.) Juancho is going to be removed from this report after this game but only if he has a career high in scoring/rebounding in the same night, once again. As for SA, Dejounte Murray (torn right ACL), Pau Gasol (foot soreness). That feels more accurate. Thanks PTR!

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Data:

TPM™ Game 33

Jamal Murray: +24

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +17

Brandon Goodwin: +1

Nick Young: N/A

Gary Harris: Injured

Malik Beasley: +19

Torrey Craig: +2

Will Barton: Injured

Juancho Hernangomez: +0

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: Injured

Paul Millsap: Injured

Trey Lyles: +8

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +21

Mason Plumlee: -3

Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 33 games +548

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 33 games +416

Brandon Goodwin: 4 games +17

Nick Young: 3 games -2

Gary Harris: 21 games +315

Malik Beasley: 33 games +190

Torrey Craig: 28 games -2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 2 games +33

Juancho Hernangomez: 32 games +52

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 26 games +238

Trey Lyles: 33 games +189

Tyler Lydon: 11 games +8

Nikola Jokic: 33 games +644

Mason Plumlee: 33 games +231

Thomas Welsh: 8 games +17

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +16.60

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +12.61

Brandon Goodwin: +4.25

Nick Young: -0.67

Gary Harris: +15.00

Malik Beasley: +5.76

Torrey Craig: -0.07

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +16.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +1.63

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +9.52

Trey Lyles: 5.73

Tyler Lydon: +0.73

Nikola Jokic: +19.52

Mason Plumlee: +7.00

Thomas Welsh: +2.13

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 32:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets trot out their 7th iteration of the injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Craig, Juancho, Plumlee & Jokic. The Spurs counter with Forbes, White, DeRozan, Gay & Aldridge. At the time of this writing (12:25 am MST Friday morning) Jokic is already quadruple-teamed, while Murray/Craig/Plumlee are left uncovered, with good reason. Fat Lever is once again on the color commentary which is always fun for diehard Nuggets fans. Not a fan of 3OH3, nor should yourself or anyone be. That line is already better than any of their thoughtless and insensitive bars. An EXTREMELY early timeout, even by Pop standards at 11:14, "a new intergalactic record" says Marlowe, after Plumlee gets B2B offensive boards. Murray sinks his first three which is a good sign, as Denver leads 5-4 at 9:55. The Spurs are playing Big Honey Straight up tonight which I gotta say, I kinda saw coming. VERY Pop. Nikola has outscored Wednesday Joker by three points already and the Spurs burn another timeout at 7:00, trailing by six.

Plumlee is killing San Antonio on the offensive glass. Where was this in Texas I wonder? The Spurs just look like an entirely different team on the road. Slick give & go in the super-slow-mo-break for Jokic/Murray. Morris is first off the pine for the good guys at 5:08, up by six. Craig just shot a three while looking to pass... unreal! As predicted most things are in reverse of the previous encounter and the bench play seems to be no different as the Spurs reserves cut it to two at 3:39. Marlowe says "Eric Lewis" as promised on twitter, 2x in one sentence even! Cheeky ol' Chris. Gotta love a commentator who leaves Easter eggs for himself and his tweeps. Lyles enters along with Beasley at 2:55. Goodwin earned meaningful minutes with solid play in the last game, as he checks in at 1:09. Great move by Malone. Denver's bench is cleansing themselves of their earlier sins and they are up by 11, led by Beasley's energy and athleticism. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +10 as they lead 31-23 after one.

Qtr2- I just have a feeling I'm going to be saying something about Rodney Mott here. You're safe for now chris-cross applesauce! Instead I'd like to talk about one Nikola Jokic who is the first Nuggets player to reach double figures at 11:11. Goodwin looks to have very good defensive instincts and lateral movement at the point of attack. He's rewarded for playing excellent D by a phantom call on Belinelli, awarding him three freebies. Denver is back up by 11 after a three by Morris in which every Denver player earned a TPM assist (Lyles of the screening variety.) Beautiful basketball, that. Marlowe just busted out a "Jokey-Doke" to describe a brilliant move by Big Honey, who is finally starting to garner double team defense. Beasley makes two in double figures at 7:29 as Denver leads by 13.

Lyles earns his third foul at this point and he must sit. Craig makes another no-look three and he's 11 for his last 21. I already knew this from his CU days but Derrick White is so good as an off the ball defender. Plumlee stuffs the bejezus out of an LA shot but the ref erroneously labels it goal-tending. Murray hits his third from beyond the arc and Denver leads by 13 at 3:48. He now leads all scorers, in becoming the third Nugget to reach double figures. Denver has a 10 rebound advantage and leads by 15 at 2:45. Yet another three by The Blue Arrow and the Nuggets lead by 18 at 1:11. The Spurs cut it to 12 with a three point play followed by a three point shot. Jamal closes out the scoring with a deuce that lands him at 21 points in the first half. Denver is paced in TPM by Beasley +14, Jokic + 17 & Murray +22 as they lead 61-47 at the half.

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Qtr3- Oh 3OH3, is there anything you CAN do? Well the tall one can dunk so there's that I suppose, even if he looks like Napoleon Dynamite in the throes of a conniption, in doing so. The enver Nuggets have apparently decided to leave their D in the locker room and the Spurs score the first six to open the third. Something tells me that Juancho will remain on the injury report above. Craig is called for a butt foul. The third quarter score is STILL 6-0 Spurs at 8:36 before Juancho finally taps in a lob from Jokic. San Antonio is doubling The Joker again and it results in a steal, reminiscent of Wednesday's game. Denver still leads by nine at the time of the first break at 6:45. Jokic is quietly in the 3D mix with a line of 15-6-6 at this time. Murray has been caught WAAAAAY out of position resulting in two WIIIIIIIIIIIIIIDE open three's for White in the third period.

The lead is just four on the strength of a 16-6 run for the Spurs. Lyles attempts a two handed running heave of some sort. White is playing like a man who wants to put on a show in front of his friends and family; raining threes and vicious dunks alike, as San Antonio cuts it to two at 2:59. Wake the fuck up Nuggets! The referees are very reluctant to call obvious fouls against Denver but that's almost always the case for the tentative squad. The Nuggets as a team have taken just five free throws which is obviously unacceptable. If I'm not mistaken, the visibly exhausted and overweight Jokic has played the entire period and he's huffin' & Puffin'. Denver is paced in TPM by Morris +13, Beasley +14, Murray +18 and Jokic +19 as they lead 78-75 after three.

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Qtr4- Beasley hits the deck hard after he's fouled on a two handed dunk attempt. Oh to be young again. I remember when I used to do that... get injured that is. Denver leads by three and are surrendering entirely too many open looks that the Spurs are fortunately missing at the moment. Strangely, Lyles has been decent defensively tonight while struggling to make bunnies and to complete passes. The lead is three at 7:42. Beasley is getting the snot kicked out of him in this period. He turns an ankle after an unnecessarily hard foul by Poeltl and must check out. I don't think it was intentionally hard, so much as an athleticism deficit foul if that makes sense; the type you see middle aged men commit vs younger players at the rec center. Craig makes four in double figures for the good guys. Denver still leads by five at the midway point. The Spurs cut it to two as Plumlee and Jokic are once again struggling to contain Aldridge, at 4:44. Murray's turn to fuck up his ankle as he's writhing in pain at 4:31. It was entirely of his own doing whilst backpedaling but for a second I had to look to see if Bruce Bowen was out there.The always tough Murray is gutting it out which is imperative with Beasley in the locker room.

The lead is five after Murray hits a runner from ten feet, giving him 31 on the night. 2:28 remains as Denver leads by three, after two Spurs battle for a board and loose possession out of bounds. Craig earns his fifth foul. Jokic is one board and one dime shy of a 3D with a 19-9-9 line. Poeltl hustles up a rebound on a fucking offensive free-throw, resulting in a fifth foul for Jokic and the lead is just one at 1:47! The Joker scores followed by a turnover by Murray, resulting in Jokic fouling out and DeRozan hitting 1-2 at the charity stripe. The Nuggets lead by two at :48. Jamal turns it over yet again which allows Craig to also foul out, sending White to the line for two. Unbelievable! Jamal's ankle is clearly effecting his movement. White hits 1-2 as well and Denver impossibly still leads by one with :29 remaining. Morris this time handles the ball and he earns a trip to the line himself, where he hits two in the pressure cooker (I swear, I beat Marlowe to his line this time.) Denver leads by three with seven seconds to go. A kicked ball by Denver with just 7/10ths of a second left (a heady illegal maneuver by Plumlee) prevents a wide open three. Forbes has a three attempt blocked by Lyles and this one is ova! Denver is paced in TPM by Morris +17, Beasley +19, Jokic +21 & Murray +24 as they eke out a victory, 102-99!
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Final Thoughts: Gutsy performance by Murray (no bullshit, I said THIS before Marlowe as well... great minds) but you have to wonder, will the Nuggets be forced to forfeit due to lack of healthy bodies tomorrow in Phoenix?

Denver Nuggets non-injury report: G-League rookies Welsh & Goodwin, second year players who barely played last season Morris, Craig & Lydon, third year pros Juancho & Lyles, fourth year pro Jokic, Plumlee and break glass in case of emergency player Swaggy fucking Pee! That means 10 players are in / eight players are out. The roster is supposed to be 15 with an additional two G-League two-way contracts, not 18 with eight players out due to injury and zero players afforded to the G-League. Never seen anything like it.

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The Nuggets Win!

For context with regard to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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