One of the better opponent pictures I've encountered this season, with regard to encapsulating a team's story.

The marque match-up with Jamal vs DeRozan a close second.

Keepin' the seat warm for Barton, Harris and Millsap.

Nuggets vs Spurs: Denver hopes not to lay a yule-log in the Lone-Star State in the first game of a home & home.

When last these two teams squared off in game 59 of last season, the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from five players led by Gary Harris/Nikola Jokic: +20. Only "Old Mud" Devin Harris was in the red for that match-up as Denver held on to win 122-119 in Denver.

As for this game, the Nuggets are coming off of a straight up drubbing (the only such occurrence this season) at the hands of a scary-good and deep Clip joint. Teams with that sort of quality depth are few and far between but they are precisely the squads which are capable of exploiting the Nuggets dearth of healthy talent. This particular Spurs unit may be less deep than in years past but any Popovich led team can expect solid bench play regardless of the personnel. They are not the same team without MVP candidate Kawhi Leonard but DeRozan and Aldridge are a formidable duo regardless.

Winners in six of their last eight, they are predictably rising and as a result, re-emerging in first round bye contention for the playoffs in the cut-throat Western Conference. Their only losses during that span were against a very good Pacers team and on the road in the always difficult Portland (insert corporate sponsor) arena. They have a far better conference record than the three teams immediately ahead of them in the standings, so we can expect them to further rise as their schedule burden normalizes and they are allowed to feast on the Leastern conference dregs like OKC has. Ultimately, the Spurs are still a bad team on the road and an excellent home team so it would be silly to predict anything but a split in this 2 game series.

Prediction: Denver 105- Spurs 113.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

San Antonio Spurs Roster

Denver Nuggets Roster

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Harris is out indefinitely with numerous ailments of lower extremities but has started light practice work. Millsap is out for the next 1.5 months with a broken big toe in his right foot. but recently came out of the walking boot. Murray is "banged up" everywhere; specifically with a bone bruise of the right shin as well as a right forearm injury but he's tough as nails and gutting it out. Barton had successful surgery on his abductor/hip and is week to week (whatever that means.) Juancho is probable with yet another core injury, currently plaguing this team. As for SA, Walker is out with an undisclosed injury.

Re-up: Not only is Walker NOT out but he's been playing in the G-League, not injured and was just called up to play tonight so ESPN really needs to get their shit correct.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 32 SA

Jamal Murray: +3

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +19

Brandon Goodwin: +11

Nick Young: N/A

Gary Harris: Injured

Malik Beasley: +26

Torrey Craig: +0

Will Barton: Injured

Juancho Hernangomez: +12

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: Injured

Paul Millsap: Injured

Trey Lyles: -1

Tyler Lydon: +3

Nikola Jokic: +13

Mason Plumlee: +9

Thomas Welsh: +0

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 32 games +524

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 32 games +399

Brandon Goodwin: 3 games +16

Nick Young: 3 games -2

Gary Harris: 21 games +315

Malik Beasley: 32 games +171

Torrey Craig: 27 games -4

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 2 games +33

Juancho Hernangomez: 31 games +52

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 26 games +238

Trey Lyles: 32 games +182

Tyler Lydon: 11 games +8

Nikola Jokic: 32 games +623

Mason Plumlee: 32 games +234

Thomas Welsh: 8 games +17

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +16.38

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +12.47

Brandon Goodwin: +5.33

Nick Young: -0.67

Gary Harris: +15.00

Malik Beasley: +5.34

Torrey Craig: -0.15

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +16.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +1.68

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +9.52

Trey Lyles: 5.69

Tyler Lydon: +0.73

Nikola Jokic: +19.47

Mason Plumlee: +7.31

Thomas Welsh: +2.13

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 30:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets trot out their 7th iteration of the injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Craig, Juancho, Plumlee & Jokic. The Spurs counter with Forbes, White, DeRozan, Gay & Aldridge. Nuggets legend Fat Lever is on the color commentary tonight for the good guys. The Roman Column trio of Juancho/Plumlee/Jokic has an enormous size advantage over their counterparts for San Antonio but this leaves Plumlee guarding Gay, Juancho guarding opening night PG White and Jokic guarding Aldridge. Murray is off to a cold start but the Spurs lead by just one at 8:25. Juancho sticks a couple straight from downtown and the Nuggets lead by one at the time of the first break at 6:15. Marlowe calls Dempsey the Skinny to Lafayette's Fat. LOVE IT! Beasley is first off the bench for the Nuggets following the commercials.

It's remarkable how stark the difference in pace is once the bench-squad for San Antonio checks in. Juancho is first to reach double digits for Denver, Murray is still ice cold and the game is all knotted up at 20 with 4:46 to play. Monte checks in at this point. Juancho is en fuego as he sticks his fourth, giving Denver a three point lead. Craig has been excellent on the offensive glass thus-far. Jokic is not looking to score and the Spurs are over-playing the passing lanes as a result. Two straight from distance for SA and they lead by six at 1:22. Only seven players have been deployed for Denver as Lyles doesn't appear to be in the rotation tonight. The Spurs are on a 14-2 run and lead by nine with :36 remaining. The Blue Arrow has been no marksman tonight (2-9) or indeed all season to date. Denver is paced nonetheless in TPM by Murray +7 as they trail 26-34 after one.

Qtr2- I just have a feeling I'm going to be saying something about White here. Not so, I'm talking Lyles who finally checks in to open the second period. Big Honey takes an "only Jokic" foul you could see coming from a mile away, while pouting about another no-call. Morris drills a three and the lead is down to five at 9:48. Beasley cuts it to three with a rare fast break dunk for Denver. The depleted bench for the Nuggets is thus-far outplaying that of the Spurs. Beasley is 0-3 from beyond the arc and struggling defensively, particularly being lost in far-too-many switches. Denver is picking up the defensive intensity and Morris is drilling the lone-star state from distance, drinking the Spurs collective milkshakes.

It's even-Steven at 45 with 4:37 to go in the half. Monte makes two in double digits for Denver. DeRozan is down and writhing in pain for the Spurs. No bueno. He stepped on Craig's foot while backpedaling and turned his right ankle apparently. Torrey sticks a three and Denver is back on top. The Nuggets already have nine first half steals and lead by five at 2:30. Jokic finally scores on a three and the lead is four for the Nuggets. Murray has been playing textbook off-the-ball, peripheral D and I'm convinced he's been reading my column (not to be confused with The Roman Column.) Two straight buckets for LA and it's tied again with less than a minute to go. Denver is paced in TPM by Murray +10, Jokic +16 & Morris +17 as they trail 53-55 at the half.

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Qtr3- Fuck you Rodney Mott! Ok, so that's a holdover from two games ago but it still rings true to this day (as Henry Phillips might say.) Chris "Skinny" Dempsey is ready whenever Marlowe is. Marlowe is ALWAYS ready! The two squads trade buckets early and it's a four point margin favoring the Spurs at 7:50. LA is feasting on mismatches seemingly every time down as there is no one on the roster equipped to handle him defensively, with The Anchorman out. Morris is in early at 6:44 for Murray, with the Nuggets trailing by six. Beasley is also in for the seemingly disinterested Jokic. It's like he has two modes, engaged but too emotional or entirely checked out. Juancho is now 5-5 from distance and the lead is down to three, midway through the third.

Jokic is quickly back in for Plumlee at 4:35. Juancho looks to be healthy again and he's going to get a 2D tonight for certain. Aldridge is unstoppable but the Spurs D has been porous in the third. Juancho has his 2d with an impressive 22-10 line already. The lead is four for SA at 1:15. Juancho is really solidifying his defensive closeout approach which is nice to see. I hope it's not just a product of being in the zone as he clearly is. Morris ties it up with 30 seconds to go. Mills gets two at the line and we've got a good one on our hands. Denver is paced in TPM by Juancho +14, Jokic +15 & Morris +19 as they trail 75-77 after three.

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Qtr4- The team that scores more points than their opponent tonight should win this one. The Spurs are going cold all of a sudden but Denver is being careless with the ball and they trail by two at 9.55. Lyles' terrible defensive instincts combined with his lack of offensive contribution tonight are hurting the Nuggets and they trail by five at 9:01. Denver STILL only has two players in double digits and neither are their leading scorers and only remaining starters, Jokic and Murray. It's a minor miracle they are still in this one as pointed out by Denver Stiffs contributor Kayla Osby. The Spurs lead by seven on the strength of an 8-0 run. Jokic is being double and triple teamed but Denver should be exploiting this, not succumbing. The lead is nine and Malone is forced to burn another timeout at 7:43. Denver trails 22-46 in PITP! Sit Murray's ass down. His chuckery is entirely unwelcome when he's not currently capable of extricating himself from a rut. The lead has ballooned to 14 and it's Jokic, not Murray who Malone decides to sit at 6:22.

Denver is ice cold and has the appearance of a team who's already given up at 3:22 as the lead is now 18. Juancho is now 6-7 from downtown and ties his career high of 27 points. Welsh/Goodwin are in for the Nuggets and it's officially recycling time with a full three minutes to play. Lydon checks in soon after, down 12 now. Beasley/Craig make four in double digits. The recycling crew scores eight in a row for Denver and the lead is down to 10, prompting Pop to re-insert his starters. Malone doesn't return the gesture, nor should he as poorly as they've played. Beasley sticks two straight from distance and it's down to six with under a minute to go but unfortunately it's too little (from Jokic/Murray) too late. Another three by a red-hot Beasley and the lead is five so I'll try this again... too little too late. Unfortunately this time I was correct. Beasley has a new career high with 22 points. Denver is paced in TPM by Goodwin +11, Juancho +12, Jokic +13, Morris +19 & Beasley +26 as they hand one away in the fourth quarter to the Spurs, 103-111.
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Final Thoughts: The Nuggets have many admirable traits but intestinal fortitude has yet to emerge as a strength. It's highly impressive how Pop orchestrates two different offenses depending on which unit is out there for the Spurs and two different defenses depending on if Jokic is out there, simultaneously. This win is equal parts LA and Pop. The loss is undoubtedly on Jokic/Murray, primarily. I was short two points for each squad in my final score prediction.

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We Suck Again!

For context with regard to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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