Winning Championships and the MVP Discussion

When considering whether Jokic is worthy of a third consecutive NBA MVP award, many of the talking heads have pointed at winning championships as an issue in their current MVP decision. They point at the past three-peaters and say with conviction "They have all won championships during their runs - what has Jokic done?". So, I asked these very simple questions:

• How many Hall of Famers did each of those past winners play with?
• How many All Stars, not Hall of Famers, but merely All Stars, has Jokic played with?

My implication being that to win championships, you need lots of help. One great player is never enough. Consequently, I decided to start counting.

The Apologies

Now, I must make several apologies before I continue. First, this article is long. No, I mean really long. I mean dHuman long. My best friend once said at a meeting "Hey, nobody leaves the room when The Eye Test is talking about stuff that nobody cares about". So, again, I apologize in advance. If you want the TLDR, then you’ve pretty much got it in the opening paragraphs above.

Second, I need to apologize to dHuman. He has made changes to his postings. Mostly, they are much more concise and straight forward. I’ve read nearly all of them. And, now other media types are stealing some of his statistical thunder in their arguments too. Bravo.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, this is a somewhat biased looked at the data. Rarely will we admit to our biases, but they play an important role in whatever we espouse. In making our arguments, we will often ignore some data while carefully selecting other data points to bolster our case. I’m going to use a simple counting methodology and enhance it with some explanatory text. I sometimes say that "I’m the least biased person I know - I’m only 99% biased while everyone else is 100%". So, while the counting part is very important, the who is counting often becomes just as important - all election jokes aside.

The Methodology

I like the simplicity of counting statistics. They are usually easily gathered, conveyed, discussed, and understood by the vast majority of the fan population. And, by simple counting statistics we are generally talking about stats like points, rebounds, and assists per game. Notice that each is still a derivative statistic - we need to count the points as well as the games played and perform a simple division. Fortunately, this level of mathematical wizardry is universally understood and accepted as useful. Slightly more complex stats like FG% are fairly important too, but are usually not part of a typical fan’s consideration. Only in modern times has a more complex stat like the 50/40/90 become an important benchmark for the more nuanced NBA fan. When considering semi advanced stats like EFG%, TS%, or, god forbid, advanced catchalls like BPM, RAPTOR, or DARKO, well, forget about it. These are generally too complex to really discuss with casual fans and even hard to decipher for more knowlegeable ones. I’ll leave all the complex statistical analysis to the Karlbosses and dHumans of the world.

So, with that said, my methodology is very simple. I will answer the questions I posed above. I’m using Hall of Famers as a surrogate for greatness. And, I’m using All Stars as a surrogate for very goodness. Granted, both of these awards have a popularity component, but each has a reasonable grounding in many of the fundamental basketball statistics. So, if you’ve been named as an All Star at any time in your career, that counts. If you’ve been inducted or projected into the Hall of Fame, that counts. I used Basketball Reference’s HOF Probability to determine this. If you are wondering, for active players, Blake Griffin establishes the cutoff at 54%. All the usual suspects, LeBron, KD, Curry and some notable others, are basically locks. Nikola Jokic currently stands at 74% sandwiched between Draymond Green and Kevin Love.

I will be considering both Nikola’s 3-peat competitors as well as some of his notable modern day contemporaries. Now, I won’t try to deflect any of the arguments against my methodology. There are too many ways to poke holes in my method. I do realize that when you play with players makes a big difference. Playing with a rookie who eventually moves on to become an all time great is not the same as playing your entire career with that same player. And, ring chasers, those who were great, are well past their prime, and move to teams with currently great players also don’t represent "greatness" in the same way. And, the longer you play, the more chances you have to play with individuals that qualify. I also recognize that differences in eras matter. In "the good old days", the league was much smaller and consequently talent got concentrated. And, there were fewer truly dominating forces like Wilt and Russell. Today, it’s now possible for players to orchestrate talent concentration and I’ll touch on that later. Anyway, all of this is what the explanatory text is for.

Finally, I’m not saying that any of these great players aren’t great. Rather, I’m trying to say that winning is highly dependent on who you play with, when you play with them, how long you get to play with them, the health of said players, the fit of those players, and the obstacles in your path to a championship.

The Back to Back to Back MVPs

Before we look at the data, as a Nuggets fan, you should try to recall all the players Nikola Jokic has played with that match the established criteria. No, go ahead. It’s a fun game and one I didn’t do as well as I’d thought originally.

I'll also note that I might have missed a player or two or miscounted season totals. This was a laborious process and I’m human.

So, let’s begin …

Bill Russell - MVP 1961 - 1963

Bill Russell won 3 NBA Championships during his reign as the back to back to back MVP and here is the list of All Stars and Hall of Famers (indicated by *) he played with during those 3 seasons:

1961

• Bob Cousy*
• Tom Heinsohn*
• KC Jones*
• Sam Jones*
• Frank Ramsey*
• Tom Sanders*
• Bill Sharman*

1962

• Everyone in 1961 except Sharman
• Carl Brown*

1963

• Everyone in 1961 except Sharman
• John Havilicek*
• Clyde Lovelette

So, Bill Russell played with no less than seven future Hall of Famers in each of his 3 seasons as a back to back to back NBA MVP. That’s eight deep including Russell in an era where great players routinely played many more minutes than they do today. And notice that six of the players were part of each championship. Now, some tiny arguments might be that KC Jones went into the Hall more as a coach than as a player. After all, he was named a top 15 NBA coach of all time. But, I’ll remind you that Steve Kerr was also named a top 15 NBA coach, orchestrated twice as many championships coaching as Jones, and was a 5 time NBA champion himself. His current odds for the Hall are currently set at 3% - just below Big Shot Bob. Now, this is an example of an intentionally misleading argument to show you how easily they can be made. Basketball Reference’s model does not take into account coaching accomplishments. My guess is that Steve Kerr is a mortal lock for Springfield based primarily on his coaching accomplishments. But, even if we eliminate KC, it knocks Russell’s count down to six Hall of Famers. And, while Havlicek was just a rookie in 1963, he still counts. I’m just trying to apply the rules fairly across the board.

Larry Bird - MVP 1984 - 1986

Larry Bird won 2 NBA Championships during his reign as the back to back to back MVP and here is the list of All Stars and Hall of Famers (indicated by *) he played with during those 3 seasons:

1984

• Danny Ainge
• Dennis Johnson*
• Kevin McHale*
• Robert Parish*
• Scott Wedman

1985

• Everyone in 1984

1986

• Everyone in 1984
• Bill Walton*

So, Larry Bird played with no less than three future Hall of Famers in each of his 3 seasons as a back to back to back NBA MVP. He also played each season with the very productive Danny Ainge. And, each, with the possible exception of DJ, was in the prime of their careers and had already played together for multiple seasons. That’s four Hall of Famers essentially in their prime starting almost every night. And, it doesn’t hurt to throw in an aging Bill Walton to waive towels and influence the locker room - bloody ring chaser …

Wilt Chamberlain - MVP 1966 - 1968

Wilt Chamberlain won a single NBA Championship during his reign as the back to back to back MVP and here is the list of All Stars and Hall of Famers (indicated by *) he played with during those 3 seasons:

1966

• Billy Cunningham*
• Hal Greer*
• Lucious Jackson
• Chet Walker*
• Ben Warley

1967

• Everyone in 1966 except Warley
• Larry Costello*
• Bill Melchionni

1968

• Everyone in 1967
• Johnny Green

So, Wilt played with no less than three future Hall of Famers in each of his 3 seasons as a back to back to back NBA MVP. And, four in the last two. Now, Wilt probably has the best excuses for only winning one championship of the three players examined so far. Both Jackson and Warley were fringe All Stars and Cunningham was just starting out his career. And, Larry Costello was at the end of his playing days and perhaps his championship as a coach pushed him into the Hall. So, why only one championship? Wilt was dominating, he had great teammates, and had the continuity of playing multiple seasons together. In one word - obstacles. In three - The Boston Celtics.

Nikola Jokic - MVP 2021, 2022, ????

Nikola Jokic has not won a championship or even played in the NBA finals during his reign as back to back MVP. Let’s examine all the All Stars and Hall of Famers (indicated by *) he has played with during his entire 8 year NBA career:

• Jameer Nelson
• Devin Harris
• Paul Millsap
• DeMarcus Cousins
• Isaiah Thomas
• DeAndre Jordan

So, Nikola Jokic has played with zero Hall of Famers and only 6 All Stars in his career. That’s counting 3 teammates who were one time All Stars and played with Jokic nearly a decade after those honors. Isaiah Thomas was an obvious gamble - a fleeting light and two time All Star with great limitations who got injured, who eventually signed with the Nuggets as a free agent, and quickly flamed out of the league.

That leaves us with Cousins and Millsap.

DeMarcus Cousins was a 4 time All Star with very good basketball skills and very bad people skills. He came to Denver after being cut by the Milwaukee Bucks, signing several 10 day contracts, and eventually signing on for the remainder of the 2021-2022 season. Cousins had already suffered multiple major injuries in his career. He hadn’t played more than 48 games in a season since 2017 and missed the entire 2019-2020 season with an ACL. He served a very useful role on Denver’s backup unit - adding toughness along with skills that allowed that unit to play a quasi-Jokic style offense. Unfortunately, both injuries and his personal demons finally pushed him out of the league after that season. And, because Cousins was a center, he basically didn’t play with Jokic, but rather on the same team as him. Not quite the same impact as many of the others that played alongside their greats. Cousins is currently given less than a 2% chance of making the Hall.

Paul Millsap was clearly the best of this group given his skillset and the timing of his addition. And, he could play alongside Nikola Jokic. Unfortunately, he came just after his peak. Paul was effective in his role and it coincided with the accession of the Nuggets from lottery team to perennial playoff team. His defensive acumen, work ethic, leadership, and basketball IQ were all things the young Nuggets and Nikola Jokic needed. While it was a slight overpay, he was a great addition - albeit a few years too late. If the Nuggets could have gotten a younger Millsap in 2017, maybe the Nuggets get lucky and win a championship in 2020. Millsap’s chances of reaching the Hall are estimated to be less than 6%.

So, what have we learned so far?

That as good as the 3-peaters are, their winning pedigree almost certainly depended on the fit, timing, and quality of their teammates. Nikola Jokic has clearly never played with the kind of talent that these other legendary stars did.

Examining The Contemporaries

Now, let’s try to take a quick tour around Jokic’s contemporaries - the ones that have usually dominated the conversation during all of Nikola’s MVP campaigns. I’ll highlight the total number of All Stars and Hall of Famers each has played with in their entire career. I’ll also normalize those counts per season actually played. Finally, I’ll add some context to dive a little deeper into the numbers.

Nikola Jokic - 8 Seasons - 6 AS / 0 HoF - .75 ASps / 0 HoFps

Contemporaries on the Same Timeline

Joel Embiid - 7 Seasons - 8 AS / 3 HoF - 1.1 ASps / .43 HoFps

Embiid has gotten to play with two sure fire Hall of Famers in or near their primes in Butler and Harden (Dwight Howard is the third). This looks bad given the team’s success - never having even reached the Conference finals; however, in his own defense, the fit hasn’t always been seamless. And, Embiid has generally been a victim of his own fragility. I’m not sure his body will ever be able to hold up to an entire NBA regular season. But, he’s also never won an NBA MVP. So, imagine a world where Nikola Jokic was never born. We’d now be talking about the back to back NBA MVP going for his third. Would Nick Wright consider Embiid the weakest two time MVP in League history?

Giannis Antekokounmpo - 9 Seasons - 6 AS / 0 HoF - .66 ASps / 0 HoFps

Giannis has got a teammate resume almost as bad as Jokic - almost. While he’s played with the likes of Kenyon Martin and DeMarcus Cousins late in their careers, he’s also been fortunate to play with Khris Middleton for his entire NBA employment. The 3 time All Star has been a good fit for Giannis. He’s a solid defender that is also a fine secondary scorer. Unfortunately, Middleton was not enough. Enter the two time All Star Jrue Holiday, add a dollop of All Star Brook Lopez, and you’ve got the makings of a championship team. Finish with perfect timing and good health and, voila, an NBA champion is born.

Older Contemporaries on a Different Timeline

Steph Curry - 14 Seasons - 9 AS / 3 HoF - .64 ASps / .21 HoFps

Steph is kind of a curious case. The number of good and great players that he has played with has been very low relative to his longtime peers. He also has a very low number of Hall of Famers per season. But, as they say in love, timing is everything. While he has won 2 MVPs and 4 titles, he’s also been fortunate enough to play with two Hall of Famers in their primes during his first two championships. And, three, with the addition of Durant, for his next two. Starting four future Hall of Famers night in and night out is tough to beat - just ask Larry Bird.

Kevin Durant - 15 Seasons - 22 AS / 8 HoF - 1.47 ASps / .53 HoFps

The itinerant Kevin Durant has played with twice as many Hall of Famers than Curry. This includes many of the usual suspects - Harden, Westbrook, Irving, as well as the Golden State triumvirate. And, I did throw in his new teammate - Chris Paul. But more astonishingly, he’s played with two or more Hall of Famers in eight of his fifteen seasons! In addition, he has played with at least one almost his entire career. And yet, he has only two NBA championships to show for it. Durant needed to join the Golden State juggernaut just to get those two. If there had been maybe one less championship and no MVP, Durant might be considered the biggest disappointment among the all time greats in NBA history.

LeBron James - 20 Seasons - 28 AS / 11 HoF - 1.4 ASps / .55 HoFps

LeBron has played with more All Stars and Hall of Famers than anybody under consideration here. Early in his career, LeBron could not win a championship with the All Star talents of Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Mo Williams. So, he took his talents to South Beach. From then on, he played with two or more future Hall of Famers for eight consecutive seasons! This yielded three NBA championships including his triumph in Cleveland. Moving on to Los Angeles, LeBron bagged another championship in 2020 with the help of 2 more Hall entrants and a very long break in the middle of the season. Last year, LeBron played with 4 (primarily aged) Hall of Famers with no championship results.

The Denouement

So, what else have we learned?

One, winning championships is hard. As Pat Riley famously said - it takes three stars to win a championship. Then, you still need a lot of luck - just consult Wilt Chamberlain’s championship resume. Even the legendary Michael Jordan needed fellow Hall of Famers Scotty Pippen and Dennis Rodman to accomplish his championship feats. In an attempt to be a little less biased, there are some potential recent counter examples to cite - namely Dirk’s 2011 Mavericks and Chauncey’s 2004 Pistons. Or, should I say Ben Wallace’s Pistons just to keep the perspective the same. Both cases are still misleading. Nowitzski’s lone championship came with fellow Hall of Famer, Jason Kidd, and four other All Stars. So, that team wasn’t nearly as bereft of talent as one might think. And, they had the good fortune of catching the Heatles before they had time to gel. As for Detroit, Wallace is the Hall of Famer. And, he still got to play with 5 time All Star Chauncey Billups, 3 timer Richard Hamilton, and twice decorated star Rasheed Wallace.

Two, in today’s NBA, if you establish yourself as a star early and you move around the league, it’s much easier to accrete high quality teammates. This is exemplified by LeBron and KD and explains why Steph has touched far fewer Hall of Famers than his longtime contemporaries.

Unfortunately for Jokic and the Nuggets, the road through the West this year is brutal. All of the top contenders boast a minimum of two Hall of Famers and an All Star side kick. Again, this is much more talent than Jokic is working with.

But, there is still hope.

Nikola Jokic is a Hall of Famer in the prime of his career. His teammates are also in or nearly entering their primes. His teammates are an excellent fit and are all (relatively) healthy now. Finally, there is no real super team out in the West; however, Nikola’s current teammates are almost certainly not Hall of Famers and may never even become All Stars. Essentially, he’s playing with perhaps two fringe All Stars and an elite role player or two (pigeon hole as you’d like). The Nuggets may be good enough to win a championship or three in the very near future, but to say Nikola must win championships to be the Back to Back to Back NBA MVP is a lazy argument. After all, how many championships would Russell have won if we replaced his teammates with Nikola’s previous All Star colleagues? Yeah, I thought so.