Nikola Jokic's 2021 MVP Case closed when the Denver Nugget:
(1) Achieved a "Big 3" Points - Rebounds - Assists, Per-Game Counting Stat Line of 26 - 11 - 8...
on 65% True Shooting.
(2) After leading Jamal Murray, Will Barton, MPJ, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris->Aaron Gordon...
+MonMorris, JaMGreen, PJ Dozier, FCampazzo, IHartenstein->ZNnaji...
to a 47-25 record in games he played.
That was over 72 games. Which was every game of that season's condensed schedule.
A season which began just 2 months after the previous postseason had ended. In which Jokic and teammates had just played through the Conference Finals.
A condensed season that cost disproportionate illness and injury throughout the League.
Speaking of which, 1/4 of those games were played after running-mate Jamal Murray was lost to a season-ending injury...
And during much of the same late season & overlapping time, Monte Morris, Will Barton, and PJ Dozier were also likewise lost...
Leaving Jokic with a starting backcourt of Rookie Facundo Campazzo and 10-Day Optioned Austin Rivers by season's end.
The same season in which Giannis Antetokounmpo played 61 games - achieving a 40-21 record in those games - leading Khris Middleton, Jrue Holliday, Brook Lopez, and Donte DiVincenzo.
(All of whom were healthy enough to play more regular season minutes for the Bucks, in their run to the title that year during its playoffs, than every Nugget besides Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter Jr-who's back tightened in Gm1 of the 2nd Round.)
The same season in which LeBron James played 45 games - achieving a 30-15 record in those games - leading the Defending Champions, whose roster was not much changed. LeBron James wound up losing in the Playoffs-in Round 1. To the exact same team that Nikola Jokic did.
Additionally, LeBron lost every game after effectively losing his running-mate, Anthony Davis, in Game 4. Nikola likewise lost every game after he effectively lost his next-man-up running-mate Michael Porter Jr in Game 1.
But note that LeBron lost despite still having: Dennis Schroder, KCP, Marc Gasol, KKuzma...
+ADrummond, WMatthews, ACaruso, THorton-Tucker with him.
As compared to Nikola, who had with him: Injured-in as of Gm1 MPJ, only been with the team for 3 months Aaron Gordon, had been injured-out for 2 months until Gm2 Will Barton, MonMorris...
+FCampazzo, ARivers, and JaMGreen.
(3) While ranking 1st in practically every Advanced Statistic imaginable, including the Defensive ones, thanks to his:
143 Steals + Blocks
(career average / t14th in '21 [Giannis was 13th, Embiid was 31st, CP3 was 32nd]), and his
65 True Shooting Percentage
(career high / 28th in '21 [11th among those with at least 10% 3PAr]), and his
30% Usage Rate
(career high / 24th in '21 [Embiid was 2nd, Giannis was 8th, LeBron was 9th, CP3 was 89th]).
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Nikola Jokic's 2022 MVP Case closed when the Denver Nugget:
(1) Achieved a "Big 3" Points - Rebounds - Assists, Counting Stat Total of:
2000 points, 1000 rebounds, 500 assists.
(Receiving an assist from then Denver Stiff Site Manager, Ryan Blackburn; who noted the pace, and publicized it enough in advance to initiate awareness/marketing of this unprecedented feat.)
(2) After leading Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, Monte Morris, and Jeff Green...
+ARivers, BHyland, FCampazzo, JaMGreen, ZNnaji->DCousins...
to a 46-28 record in games he played.
In the same season that LeBron James led AD, Russell Westbrook, Malik Monk, and Melo...
+THorton-Tucker, AReaves, ABradley, WEllington->SJohnson, DHoward...
to a 25-31 record in games he played.
(3) While ranking 1st in practically every Advanced Statistic imaginable, including the Defensive ones, thanks to his:
172 Steals + Blocks
(career high / 10th in '22 [Embiid was 9th, Giannis was t12th]), and his
66 True Shooting Percentage
(career high / 16th in '22 [4th among those with at least 10% 3PAr]), and his
32% Usage Rate
(career high / 11th in '22 [Embiid was 2nd, Giannis was 3rd, Luka was 1st]).
(4) And he demonstrated all this Utility clearly, by finishing 1st in the League in the On-Off (in terms of +/- Per 100 Possessions) Metric
(which shows how much more valuable a player is to their team's success when they're on the court versus when they're not, by showing the Net Score for when any player is "In" minus when that player is "Out")...
While finishing 13th in the League in Total + (in terms of +/- Per 100 Possessions).
3.7 per 100 shy of #1 (49-27) Jayson Tatum's +12.1.
(Note that Jokic was still +8.4 per 100... with the help of Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, Monte Morris, and Jeff Green.
As compared +12.1 per 100... with the help of Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Marcus Smart, and Al Horford.)
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Nikola Jokic's 2023 MVP Case:
(1) On pace to achieve the "Big 3" Counting Stats of Points Per Game, Rebounds Per Game, and Assists Per Game...
A True volumetric Production Line of 25 PPG, 10 REB, 10 AST ...on 70% True Shooting.*
An unprecedented feat.
(The closest to a 25 - 10 - 10 on 70TS% Season there's ever been was 1962 Oscar Robertson:
31 - 12 - 11 on 59TS%. Not even 1962 Oscar, nor 2017 MVP Westbrook managed to start even a 10 - 10 - 10 on 60TS% Club. 2023 Nikola Jokic is starting it. This season.
And not with 60TS%... 70TS%. This is taking the whole history of the NBA into account folks.)
2023 Nikola Jokic may just be the Single Most Well-Rounded Basketball Producer of all time.
(2) Leading Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope...
+BBrown, BHyland->CBraun, JefGreen, VCancar, ZNnaji->TBryant...
to a 38-13 record in games he played.
In a year LeBron James leads Anthony Davis, Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker IV->Rui Hachimura+Jarred Vanderbilt, Patrick Beverley->D'Angelo Russell...
+TBryant->MBamba, RWestbrook->MBeasley, AReaves, TBrown Jr, WGabriel...
to a 23-16 record in games he's played.
(3) While ranking 1st in practically every Advanced Statistic imaginable, including the Defensive ones, thanks to his:
101 Steals + Blocks
(career average / t27th in '23 [Embiid is t11th, Luka & Tatum are t30th, Giannis is >60]), and his
70 True Shooting Percentage*
(career high / 6th in '23 [2nd among those with at least 10% 3PAr...to his new Backup(!)]), and his
27% Usage Rate
(career average / 38th in '22 [Embiid is 3rd, Luka is 2nd, Tatum is 8th, Giannis is 1st; Ja is 4th, LeBron is 5th, Dame is 6th...]).
(!) And only for the sake of dispelling any "Stat Padding" (or questioned Degree of Difficulty) counterarguments, which may foreseeably come forth to try to revise Nikola's impact as "Inflated," or somehow not as sound as some other's surely-not-inflated resume...
Even though the following might certainly be cause to do more than just this...
(Like, oh I dunno, maybe FTA disparity as compared to other Big Men in the League; maybe a greater appreciation for him being the most consistent, best player in the Clutch over the past 5 seasons; etc.)
Please peruse the following two cites, for click-into-place contextualization.
Note that Nikola Jokic plays for the Denver Nuggets:**
See https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-nba-team-is-wronged-by-the-refs-the-most/
See https://sports.yahoo.com/sleepless-nights-index-assessing-late-game-officiating-favorability-for-every-nba-team-lakers-lebron-james-222212957.html
(4) And Jokic demonstrates all this Utility clearly, by heading into the All Star Break 1st in the League in the On-Off (in terms of +/- Per 100 Possessions) Metric
(which shows how much more valuable a player is to their team's success when they're on the court versus when they're not, by showing the Net Score for when any player is "In" minus when that player is "Out")...
Yeah, let's take a moment here. He's 1st, yeah. But note the score: 24.2.
The only player in the history of the NBA (as far back as this metric has been tracked of course) to have a greater score than 2023 Nikola Jokic is 2016 Draymond Green (26.3).
Not even Stephen Curry (22.6), the engine of that 73-9 Warriors team, who had one of the Top Individual Seasons of all time that very season, had a higher On-Off than 2023 Nikola Jokic and his 41-18 Nuggets to date.
That Warriors team was in the discussion for the Greatest Team of all time.
(Before Draymond got suspended for Gm5, up 3-1 on Cleveland, that is.)
This Nuggets team hasn't been in a discussion outside local media, for anything more than begrudged contender status.
(Resulting in one All Star snub - Aaron Gordon; and one 3PT Shooting Contest snub who asked to do it - former Laker/LeBron teammate, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.)
In a "Wide Open" West of course. The conference they lead by 5 games with just 23 to play.
The same West Ja feels unthreatened by, and who the National Basketball Media believe a KD-led Suns or Kawhi-led Clippers are bigger favorites in.
Heck, Denver may not even be the favorite, despite the #1 Seed and potential Home Court Advantage throughout the playoffs, in their first round matchup.
For the focus has always been more on two gold-dressed California teams. (And much else.)
Apologies. Where was I? Ah yes... Nikola Jokic has been 1st in On-Off. Historically so.
He's done that while he has also been 1st in the League in Total + (in terms of +/- Per 100 Poss).
2.5 per 100 ahead of the next non-Nugget, (25-24) Isaiah Joe's +11.2; 4.3 & 4.4 per 100 ahead of the next-closest MVP candidates, (40-15) Jayson Tatum & (30-15) Joel Embiid's +9.4 & +9.3.
(Note that Nikola Jokic is +13.7 per 100 this season. He was +8.4 in the same category last season.
That's a raw increase of +5.3, with the help of Jamal Murray and MPJ and KCP...
As compared to Monte Morris, Will Barton, and Jeff Green.)
These two metrics can be taken together to mean that with Nikola Jokic on the court - say for a full game - his basketball team wins by about 14 points, and with him off the court, his basketball team loses by about 11 points.
Whereas Jayson Tatum's (11.1 On-Off) & Joel Embiid's (11.4 On-Off) basketball teams win by about 9 points with them on the court for the whole, and lose by just 2 points when they are not.
This absolutely speaks to value.
And taking the aforementioned 2016 Warriors as maybe the only historical precedent, there is reason Zach Lowe (a beacon of light in the darkness) finds this part of Jokic's case "ridiculous."
(5) Nikola Jokic is on pace to achieve the "Big 3" Percent Statistics: (Along with Points Per Game to reasonably merit consideration,) 3-Point Shooting, Field Goal Shooting, Free Throw Shooting...
A True volumetric efficiency Shooting Line of 20 PPG, 40 3PT%, 60 FG%, 80 FT%.***
An unprecedented feat.
(The closest to a 2[5] - 40 - 60 - 80 Season there's ever been was probably 2013 LeBron James:
2[7] - 41 - 57 - 75. Not even Peak Heatle, back-to-back MVP & back-to-back Champion LeBron managed to start the 20 - 40 - 60 - 80 Club. 2023 Nikola is just about to. This season.)
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(2023 Appendix)
*Through 59 of 82 games, 70.3% is the rate with which Nikola Jokic is "True Shooting." (Assuming he gets his 39.1 3P% up to 40, to qualify of course...)
That is BETTER than the greatest True Shooting % EVER recorded by any player in the history of NBA Basketball who qualified for the 50 FG% / 40 3PT% / 80 FT% Club in the same year.
(This includes '95+1996 Tim Legler, 2016 Stephen Curry, 2013+'17+'21 Kevin Durant, and 2005-2010+'12 Steve Nash...
It also includes [nearly 2021 MPJ], 2019 Joe Harris, [nearly 2011 Afflalo,] 2007 Dirk Nowitzki, 2002 Brent [+nearly John] Barry, '96+1997 Steve Kerr, '95-'98 John Stockton, 1997 Chris Mullin, 1990+'94 Reggie Miller, '88+1989 Mark Price, 1987+'88 Larry Bird, 1986 Craig Hodges, Etc.)
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***Through 59 of 82 games, 63.2% is the rate with which Nikola Jokic is "Shooting Field Goals." (Assuming he gets his 39.1 3P% up to 40, to qualify of course...)
That is 7.9% BETTER than the greatest True Shooting % EVER recorded by any player in the history of NBA Basketball who qualified for the 50 FG% / 40 3PT% / 80 FT% Club in the same year. (1997 Chris Mullin.) 7.9!!
Heck, it's 3.2% better than the next best player season that actually bothered to actually shoot:
1990 Charles Barkley (who didn't make the club because of 3P% and FT%).
7.5% better than the best LeBron James has ever done (who didn't make the club because of FT%).
9.3% better than best Michael James ever did (who didn't make the club because of 3P%, tho he nearly made it later, in 1996).
Alright, so we know that this combination of True Shooting and Field Goal Shooting is seemingly unprecedented, right? Well let's see if we can determine just how beyond precedents it Nikola Jokic's Shooting and Scoring combination in 2023 really is...
Take Tyson Chandler, Mitchell Robinson, Rudy Gobert, and now Nikola's just-added Backup, Thomas Bryant, out of the pool of "True Shooters"... Because none of them are in the 80 FT% club for their year(s) of qualifying FG%...
And let's dive one level deeper...
I had trouble finding more than a single member of the 60 FG% / 80 FT% Club when I searched:
It's 1987 Kevin McHale. I think that's it. Though I'm prepared to be corrected here.
(He was close again in 1988; as was 1980 Cedric Maxwell; as is today's Richaun Holmes, to be fair.)
If the modern Centers I've cited above (and others in the same vein), who we understand don't produce/play at an understood level of volume to be considered Top Scorers, and would not be considered "True Shooters" in some understandable sense, what we're really talking about here... with the absurdity of just 2023 Jokic's FG% and TS%, is:
Pooling together 1987 Kevin McHale (sole member, I believe-please correct me if my survey missed others, of the 60 FG% / 80 FT% Club); with
1982 Artis Gilmore (sole member of the 65 FG% / 75 FT% / 70 TS% Club); and
1973 Wilt Chamberlain (sole member of the 70 FG% / 50 FT% / 69 TS% Club - keep in mind, this is Final Season & Defending Champ, Wilt: He was more selective than he'd ever been)...
To contextualize and compare 2023 Nikola Jokic (sole member of the 60 FG% / 80 FT% / 70 TS% / let alone other add-ons)... Never mind only one has a favorable MVP case...
To understand how 2023 Nikola Jokic is one in the group, if not one above the group of,
The Most Efficient "True Scorers" EVER.
Moreover, because a 56 FG% / [anything good] 3PT% / 80 FT% [/ anything good TS%] Club seems to NOT YET EXIST... Let alone the Club that 2023 Jokic is creating: A 60 FG% / 40(?) 3P% / 80 FT% / 70 TS% Club... By its mathematical definition, and a scope that's reasonable,
2023 Nikola Jokic is The Single Greatest True Shooter OF ALL TIME.
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**Oh, I almost forgot. As to that, "He hasn't won a championship yet," pretextual counterclaim...
Well, this will be the first time since 2020 that he's had a healthy chance to win a championship.
And if the argument against "giving" Nikola Jokic an award that his play has earned, is based in the fear (or more likely the hope) that he and his team fall short this coming postseason; and thus the withholding can be justified retrospectively...
It's worth noting that not only has Nikola Jokic (and probably the Denver Nuggets) never had a better chance to win a championship than this season, but no other 2023 MVP candidate has any better chance of winning the championship this season either. (As of today and the reasonably foreseeable.) The retrospective will cut both ways.
And you better believe the Single Greatest True Shooting Season of All Time was accomplished by an All Time Great. No matter whether the gatekeepers of his time kept him out of their discussions. You better believe the Single Most Well-Rounded Production Season of All Time was accomplished by an All Time Great. It's those achievements, not those of the gatekeepers, which will better stand the test of time.
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So long, original Denver Stiffs. Thanks for all the fish.
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