Nuggets vs Wolves III: "Defend the three; mind the turnovers; win"

The Good Guys

Their Adversaries

Red boxes above indicate one notable number to catch my eye for each team

(Open images in a new tab for a closer look. Charts courtesy of ESPN.COM. All links contained within this piece will open in a new tab or window.)

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis.

In-game analysis will be provided for all games except for the second of B2B and/or weekend games. Data will be tracked for all 82 games, regardless of whether analysis is provided or not.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Data:

TPM™ Game 50 MIN

Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic: +28

Aaron "Aar" Gordon: +0

"Brontosaurus" Monte Morris: +10

Will "Thrill" Barton: +6

"Uncle" Jeff Green: +8

"Bones" Hyland: -5

Bryn "The Djinn" Forbes: -5

Austin "Tributary" Rivers: +1

Zeke "Freaky Deeky Zeeky" Nnaji: +5

"Mr Undependable" JaMychal Green: -1

Facundo "El Mago" Campazzo: +8

"Mr Dependable" Davon Reed: +13

"Wet" Markus Howard: +1

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 44 games +1641

Aaron Gordon: 46 games +608

Monte Morris: 45 games +606

Will Barton: 42 games +345

Jeff Green: 45 games +156

Bones Hyland: 38 games +244

Bryn Forbes: 7 game +27

Austin Rivers: 36 games +81

Zeke Nnaji: 33 games +94

DeMarcus Cousins: 4 games +19

JaMychal Green: 38 games +41

Facundo Campazzo: 49 games +395

Davon Reed: 24 games +78

Markus Howard: 21 games +64

Jamal Murray: 0 games +0

Michael Porter Jr: 9 games +56

Vlatko Cancar: 14 games +56

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +37.30

Aaron Gordon: +13.22

Monte Morris: +13.47

Will Barton: +8.21

Jeff Green: +3.47

Bones Hyland: +6.42

Bryn Forbes: +3.86

Austin Rivers: +2.11

Zeke Nnaji: +2.85

DeMarcus Cousins: +4.75

JaMychal Green: +1.08

Facundo Campazzo: +8.06

Davon Reed: +3.25

Markus Howard: +3.05

Jamal Murray: +0.50

Michael Porter Jr: +6.22

Vlatko Cancar: +4.00

__________________________________________________________________________________________

TPM™ Per-Minute Splits (Through game 42 {midway point})

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet.

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 15TH starting five, consisting of Monte, Will, Unc, AG & MVP. The Wolves counter with Pat-Bev, Jaden, Ant, Vando & KAT. Anal returns tonight! No D-Lo for the Wolves, which is prolly a good thing for them. Joker wins the tip and we are underway. Minnesota is first to score, after nearly two minutes. The officiating is horrendous right off the bat. Pat Bev has two quick fouls and he exits, trailing by one at 8:58. Check that, he remains in, which is curious, given their thin back-court.

Denver leads by four at the time of the first break, 6:00. Denver has no fouls as yet, to the Wolves three. Beverly gets his third foul, and that's on Coach Finch. He finally sits. Zeke/Rivers are first in for the good guys, off the bench, at 3:41, up two. Bones/Forbes are next in and only MVP remains of the starting five. KAT and ANT exit at 1:05, as JMyke enters at 2:44, up two, and the bench unit for Denver is intact. Zeke looks jittery in his opening moments tonight.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic: +17 as they trail 28-30 after one.

Qtr2- The Nuggets are simply not valuing the basketball, just like the last time these teams played. They had nine turnovers in the first period. Minnesota's 2nd unit is vastly more together than their starters seem to be, and they have a four point lead. Forbes/Bones each have two quick fouls. Naz Reed is killing JMyke and the lead is quickly up 11, leading to a timeout at 9:37. Morris/Will are in at this time, for Nnaji/Bones. Every possession is an iso drive for Denver and the lead is 14. They are 2-9 in the period. The lead is 13 at the time of the next break, 7:26, as Jokic/AG ready to return.

No bench players for Denver came to play tonight, it seems. Jokic is going to have to start looking to score himself. The Wolves are on a 22-7 run, currently. Too much ball watching for Denver. Prince is KILLING the Nuggets as the lead is now 20, at 5:05, courtesy of a 9-0 run. No movement on either end for Denver. Prince and Reed are both out now; maybe Denver stops sucking. Minnesota simply can not miss from downtown, and the lead is 22 at 3:08. Vando could be called for a foul on every play; he has just one. Denver is finally calming down and a 10-2 run cuts it to 18.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic: +23 as they trail 51-69 at the half.

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr3- They had better be administering some of Marlowe's trademark orange slices, in the locker room. Well, they don't look listless, but I'd not characterize the Nuggets as "focused", coming out of the half. Jokic chucks up an "I'm fed up" three after Barton drops one of his patented grenade passes on him. The lead is 24 at the time of the first break, 8:41. Enough! Go to MVP in the paint and MOVE YOUR FUCKING FEET! AG/Will/Monte's brains are elsewhere.

KAT gets his 4th foul but remains in at 7:04. up 25. Only Jeff Green is playing up to his season standard for Denver.The lead is 27 at 6:27. Reserves are filtering in at this point for both sides. Pat-Bev gets his 4th foul but remains in. The lead is 21 following two at the line for Monte, at 3:22. Denver is going with 4 guards (all 6'3 and under) and Jokic. Bones cuts it to 19, and Finch calls a timeout at 3:05. Prince just does not miss. Facu is in for Monte, which I suppose isn't a bad idea, all things considered. Jokic plays the entire third, and barring a miracle, his night is likely done, trailing by 22.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic: +28 as they trail 78-100 after three.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr4- The game is over unless Bones/Forbes go unconscious from deep. I'm going to phone the rest of this one in as well. Maybe that'll be the good luck move.

Denver is paced in TPM by __ as they __

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Final Thoughts:

• Denver comes out listless in the second quarter, and never recovers, losing 115-130 in a game that wasn't nearly that close. In so doing, they fall to 28-22 on the seaosn.
  
• Boogie is crucial to our team success, as surprising as that statement is. Denver NEEDS an inside threat off the bench.
  
• Obviously, the lone silver lining is that the starters earned a rest for the 4th quaarter tonight by sucking, thereby making themselves less exhausted for the ridiculous schedule loss tomorrow in Utah.
  
• Why the fuck was KAT still out there stat-padding, up 30 with 6 minutes to go? So classy.
  

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats, but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM, which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric, because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 45-year-old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was, in this case, interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly appreciate your the support.

I can be found at @prmorphine on Twitter.

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

And as always, get the jab, wear the mask, act like a good person privately and especially in public; even if you are not, and most importantly, fuck the Lakers.

#DoNotBeABranchCovidian
#DoNotBeAnAmmosexual
#FuckTheLakersOneMoreTimeJustForGoodMeasure
#TLDRHashtagsAndSiglines