Nuggets vs Spurs:
"Finish what you started"
Pregame thoughts:
Given that these two franchises just squared off on Saturday, there is little to add to the previous preview, other than to state the obvious; if the Nuggets expect to achieve even a narrow victory tonight, they will have to play with the exact same intensity and focus, because the Spurs are a different animal altogether with a night's rest and playing on their home turf.
Beyond that, I'll share what I did last time, for those who may have missed it, and make a new prediction, based on the very different set of circumstances for this game.
The Nuggets have a filthy habit of coming out firing on all cylinders, only to take their foot off the gas, and allow inferior teams to make it a race down the stretch. That dog won't hunt, against this scrappy Spurs squad.
Third quarters remain the bane of Denver's existence, which at this point seemingly HAS to be on the coaching staff, when considering the upgraded starting lineup stumbling into the same pitfall as last year, when Murray/MPJ/KCP were not available. This issue began prior to acquiring AG, so the only other possibility would be to blame Jokic, but he routinely plays very well in the third in spite of the lack of team success, so the root of the malady seems clear.
Perhaps less halftime messaging is in order, about defense at the expense of offense, or keeping turnovers to a minimum (Duh! Who tries to commit turnovers?) and more conversation/film-study is needed surrounding more specific details WRT the tendencies of their opponent, focusing on addressing specific, correctable errors.
Michael Malone, by all accounts, has proven to be an elite "behind the scenes" and "big picture" coach, but in 7+ years in Denver, he has never really proven to be adept at making in-game adjustments or thinking on the fly. His poor record in deciding whether or not to challenge plays, as well as the outcome derived from these fast decisions, is symptomatic of this Achilles heel.
As I stated in my pregame thoughts for the most recent Nuggets vs Jazz matchup, I LOVE the way Utah/San Antonio are approaching this season. Only one team will luck into Wemby, but every team can develop winning habits and a championship culture. THIS is "The Process" which should be emulated; not that of Philly/OKC.
To HELL with Ivey league Stock-exchange GM's. Morey/Presti can fuck right off, in fact. These androids completely fail to calculate into their deeply-flawed algorithm, the unquantifiable and indomitable element that is humanity. Beep-bo-bop-be-boop ERROR! Does not compute! Access denied!
Keldon Johnson gave Denver fits last year with his physical frame and athleticism, and he's added a more efficient three point stroke to his already-efficient playing style this year. The key to victory tonight for Denver will be to mitigate the amount of open looks he gets, and force Vassell away from the three point line, where he likes to operate. The two are hoisting 16.5 combined threes per night, and converting at nearly 43% on the year. Vassell especially, proved to be an elite sharpshooter in their previous dust up in Denver.
As for this rematch, I expect the Spurs to go on several runs to make a game of it, but in the end they simply do not have the star-power or depth to beat a Denver team playing with any amount of energy and focus. Denver prevails tonight, to the tune of a 113-105 victory in Texas.
The Good Guys
Their Adversaries
*Red boxes above indicate one notable number (or numbers) to catch my eye for each team
(Open images in a new tab for a closer look. Charts courtesy of ESPN.COM.)
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Data:
TPM™ Game 10 SAS
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Total TPM™
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Avg. TPM™ Per Game
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Final Thoughts:
- Denver wins by a final score of 115-109, and in so doing improves to 7-3 on the season.
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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™
A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole: As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.
Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats, but I'm by no means an expert.
I created TPM, which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric, because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.
While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family, so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.
Now I'm a 45-year-old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.
I was, in this case, interested in a data-driven approach.
If you are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this, so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly appreciate your support.
I can be found at @prmorphine on Twitter.
Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.
And as always, act like a good person privately and especially in public; even if you are not, and most importantly, fuck the Lakers.
#DoNotBeABranchCovidian
#DoNotBeAnAmmosexual
#FuckTheLakersOneMoreTimeJustForGoodMeasure
#TLDRHashtagsAndSiglines
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