Nuggets vs Knicks:
"Omicron meets schedule-loss"
Pregame thoughts:
Tonight's contest promises to be be a wild & wacky one, not just with the health concerns for the Nuggets and their coaching staff, in the first game at home following a long road trip, but in facing the rudderless Knicks, following their players-only meeting in Utah, who are playing tonight on a on a road b2b in the Mile High City. I don't like it one bit.
The Knicks are, for all intents and purposes, a three-man team, with Randle/Brunson/Barrett each playing between two and three FULL minutes per game more than anyone on the vastly-superior Nuggets squad. The off-season acquisition of Jalen Brunson was questionable at best (decent player; horrendous timing and contract), and symptomatic of a franchise that has been reeling ever since the retirement of Patrick Ewing, decades ago.
Denver has been without Bones Hyland (COVID) and will be tonight without the two-time/reigning MVP for the same reason, and they have tertiary content creation to blame for it. Combined, these two chaps have had COVID no fewer than 33 times in the last three years.
AG is also questionable with a non-COVID illness, but as we've seen before, those often transition swiftly into health & safety protocol. Bones has been upgraded twice since last night; first from out to doubtful, then from doubtful to questionable, so it seems likely that he'll be returning to action for this one.
Given that it's probable that Jeff Green and DeAndre Jordan start for the good guys, that Bones has rust to shake off and that newly recalled beleaguered G-Leaguers Peyton Watson/Jack White are forced into action, it is incredibly difficult to make any predictions. I do predict that Nnaji will finally get a chance to unseat the largely-ineffective Jordan tonight, so that's definitely something to watch for. How Jamal/MPJ step up in the absence of MVP is obviously the primary determinant, however.
I'm basing my prediction for tonight's outcome solely on the following graphic:
As you can see, in November, the Knicks win every other game and vise versa, so on this night, the Nuggets prevail, by a final score of 123-115. #Science
The Good Guys
Their Adversaries
*Red boxes above indicate one notable number (or numbers) to catch my eye for each team
(Open images in a new tab for a closer look. Charts courtesy of ESPN.COM.)
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Data:
TPM™ Game 14 NYK
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Total TPM™
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Avg. TPM™ Per Game
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Final Thoughts:
- Denver ___ by a final score of ___, and in so doing ___ to 8-4 on the season.
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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™
A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole: As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.
Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats, but I'm by no means an expert.
I created TPM, which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric, because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.
While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family, so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.
Now I'm a 45-year-old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.
I was, in this case, interested in a data-driven approach.
If you are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this, so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly appreciate your support.
I can be found at @prmorphine on Twitter.
Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.
And as always, act like a good person privately and especially in public; even if you are not, and most importantly, fuck the Lakers.
#DoNotBeABranchCovidian
#DoNotBeAnAmmosexual
#FuckTheLakersOneMoreTimeJustForGoodMeasure
#TLDRHashtagsAndSiglines
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