Nuggets vs Bulls:
"Showdown in Chi-town or; Showdown in little Serbia. You decide"
Pregame thoughts:
For those doing the math, the irony of that caption of course, is that the population of Chicago is roughly 9.5 million, while the entire country of Serbia, is populated by only 8.7 million, but I always enjoyed choose-your-own-adventures.
Digression diverted, this one could play out in a strikingly similar manner to the previous brouhaha in Bean-Town, if the Nuggets aren't careful.
As with the Celtics, Chicago's offense is dictated by the shooting and driving of their two wicked wings, LaVine & DeRozan. The differences between the two squads don't end there, as Caruso is a similar defensive irritant to Marcus Smart, though he does so by way of clean, hard-nosed play, rather than chicanery and assholery, and with not so much as a lock of Oscar the Grouch hair! Also, he's bumpin bald eagles with Hayleigh Boucher, so I've gotta respect him on that basis alone.
Boston's offense really doesn't have a third threat however, and Chicago benefits from contract-year-Vooch this season.
That the C's managed to blow out Denver without a third offensive weapon, speaks to their clutchy-grabby, slappy/floppy defense (greatly aided by the favorable whistle they and all teams receive vs Denver, as the two time reigning MVP is clearly disliked by all but one or two NBA officials) coupled with far-too-long lapses in individual and team focus/energy/communication, by the good guys.
In short, Denver has to ignore the matter of playing 5 on 8, put their heads down and work.
Defense should not be the messaging, nor should offense. They are two sides of the same coin; something that Malone tends to forget during his post game thoughts and his rage-timeout rants, which then seems to fall on deaf ears with the ad nauseam tinitic-refrain of "Defense" perpetually ringing.
No! The key to unlocking Denver's potential by way of messaging, is to consistently remind them to focus, communicate and give energy. Denver's best defense is played when their offense is clicking and vice versa. The time to change the coaching narrative, is long-past.
When someone loses focus, snap their ass out of it with a quick *and specific* reminder on the bench. This needs to INCLUDE the best players, not just the young guys, as they are ALL guilty of it at one time or another. They all KNOW defense is important. They KNOW turnovers are bad. Both are the end-result of a dearth of effort, communication and focus, not a lack of interest in mitigating damage.
Lonzo Ball being on the shelf to open the season is an enormous if under-stated aspect of the Bulls whelming start to the season, but their roster is loaded with veteran contributors, who compliment the up & down results inherent in giving starters-minutes to young guys like Dosunmu and Williams. Dragic in particular, has seemed to fit like a glove, and Drummond is always an offensive rebounding threat. He's averaging 9.4 boards (3.1 offensively) in only 16 minutes per night.
I predict a grueling event tonight. As always, if Jamal gives them anything at all, the margin for error greatly widens. Jokic always enjoys playing in Chicago, a city which supports this country's largest Serbian community, and indeed the largest outside of Serbia, in the world. If he can somehow avoid foul trouble (read: no fouling on purpose) and if MPJ can rebound from his only sub-par shooting performance of the season, I think Denver will pull out a nail-biter, to the tune of 117-115.
The Good Guys
Their Adversaries
*Red boxes above indicate one notable number (or numbers) to catch my eye for each team
(Open images in a new tab for a closer look. Charts courtesy of ESPN.COM.)
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Data:
TPM™ Game 13 CHI
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Total TPM™
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Avg. TPM™ Per Game
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Final Thoughts:
- Denver wins by a final score of 126-103, and in so doing improves to 8-4 on the season.
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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™
A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole: As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.
Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats, but I'm by no means an expert.
I created TPM, which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric, because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.
While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family, so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.
Now I'm a 45-year-old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.
I was, in this case, interested in a data-driven approach.
If you are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this, so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly appreciate your support.
I can be found at @prmorphine on Twitter.
Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.
And as always, act like a good person privately and especially in public; even if you are not, and most importantly, fuck the Lakers.
#DoNotBeABranchCovidian
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