Nuggets vs Blazers:
"Dig Deep!"
Pregame thoughts:
Pundits by and large, have wildly undersold the off-season moves Portland made, and as a result, have underestimated where they are likely to wind up in the standings. The additions of Jerami Grant & GPII, the high draft pick that last season's underwhelming performance afforded them in Sharpe, as well as the mid-season emergence of Anfernee Simons, and the acquisition of the largely underappreciated Josh Hart, combine to result in a formidable, if shallow, rotation.
Oh ya; there's also the matter of one of the premiere scorers in the game, in the form of Damian Lillard, returning.
Expect Grant to provide the usual juice he plays with against his former team, but you can also expect him to be stiffed in the form of contested, forced jumpers by his replacement (I'd say upgrade) AG; someone he's yet to face vs Denver.
Unlike in the first handful of encounters, Nurkic no longer has anything for MVP, but unlike OKC, Portland will play 1 on 1 at the 5, so you can expect a high scoring output from Jokic.
KCP should continue to find himself wide open tonight in the corners, vs the non-defending back-court of the Blazers, and there is zero reason to believe he won't continue to flush these looks.
Bones will look to bounce back from his no-show in Denver, where he clearly was not himself, following the 4 AM arrival time that morning. Growing pains of a young player.
Portland doesn't really have a traditional 5 (Eubanks) to back up Nurk, so this may be a chance for Zeke to also redeem himself, after a poor outing in Denver on Saturday.
The Blazers played a hotly contested game in LA last night (if there can be such a thing vs the L's) and had to travel to Portland, but it was an early game, so sleep deprivation should not be much of an issue. In fact, both the Nuggets/Blazers arrived in Portland at relatively the same time. Having said that, With GPII out to open the season, Portland's bench is not deep, and Denver's rotation is built to wreak havoc upon the opponent on both ends of the floor, in terms of energy expenditure.
If Murray/KCP/Bones/Brown/Braun can hold their own against Lillard/Simons, and keep one of the league's best rebounding guards in Hart off the glass (something that is all-but nullified by the fact that Grant is a non-rebounder at the 4, and the 6'4 Hart is forced to play the 3 by the Blazers diminutive back-court), I expect an important road victory for the good guys, to the tune of 115-111.
(pregame photos courtesy of Denver Nuggets Twitter)
The Good Guys
Their Adversaries
*Red boxes above indicate one notable number (or numbers) to catch my eye for each team
(Open images in a new tab for a closer look. Charts courtesy of ESPN.COM.)
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Data:
TPM™ Game 4 PDX
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Total TPM™
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Avg. TPM™ Per Game
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Final Thoughts:
- Denver loses by a final score of 110-135, and in so doing falls to 2-2 on the season.
- Offense/Defense should be less the focal point. They go hand in hand for this team. More about energy/focus.
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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™
A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole: As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.
Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats, but I'm by no means an expert.
I created TPM, which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric, because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.
While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family, so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.
Now I'm a 45-year-old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.
I was, in this case, interested in a data-driven approach.
If you are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this, so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly appreciate your support.
I can be found at @prmorphine on Twitter.
Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.
And as always, act like a good person privately and especially in public; even if you are not, and most importantly, fuck the Lakers.
#DoNotBeABranchCovidian
#DoNotBeAnAmmosexual
#FuckTheLakersOneMoreTimeJustForGoodMeasure
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