Listening to the "The Lowe Post" today, ESPN basketball analyst Zach Lowe’s podcast, Lowe and Bill Simmons spent a good amount of time talking about trade ideas for the Denver Nuggets. Two players they mentioned caught my attention; Kyle Lowry of the Toronto Raptors, and Harrison Barnes of the Sacramento Kings. Bill Simmons especially thought these two players were terrific trade targets for the Nuggets heading into the trade deadline. I did too, so I want to do a deeper dive on these two players and their potential fit with the Nuggets.
Let’s start with Kyle Lowry.
Coming off a Finals win just two years ago, Lowry has the championship experience Mike Malone’s squad would be looking for. He’s averaging 18 PPG, 7 APG, and 5.5 RPG, all while being a bulldog on the defensive end. Bottom line, he’s a really solid player that would slide right into the starting point guard spot for the Nuggets. This would mean moving Jamal Murray permanently to the 2 guard. As we’ve seen with recent injuries and Monte Morris moving into the starting lineup, Murray has thrived this season as the off ball guard. We’re seeing a similar situation in Phoenix with Devin Booker moving to that spot in order to accommodate Chris Paul. Essentially, Kyle Lowry would be our Chris Paul.
A couple thoughts about this potential trade.
1: This is a win-now move. Kyle Lowry is 34 on the last year of his contract. Best case scenario is to not only trade for him, but sign him to a 2-4 year deal at the end of the season. I view this more or less as an "all in" type of trade hoping the Nuggets can sign him to a longer deal.
2: Trading for the caliber of player that is Kyle Lowry means giving up some prime assets. One person that would absolutely need to be involved in this trade in my opinion is Gary Harris. Gary has no spot on the bench on this current Nuggets squad and that’s exactly what would happen if Lowry joined the team. In my mind, he’s either locking up the opponents best player or not playing at all. Harris is signed through next season and would be a waste of money and a waste of a roster spot in this scenario.
So what would a trade package for Lowry look like? Including Gary Harris would offset some of the salary the Nuggets would be picking up in Lowry’s contract but it wouldn’t quite be enough, especially if we sign him to a longer term deal. So with that being said, along with Harris, the Nuggets would ideally look to avoid Will Barton’s $14.6 million player option next year. If you’ve read my other fanpost you’ll see my feeling towards Will Barton, so you can understand where this idea is coming from. With that being said, I think dumping Barton AND Harris is unrealistic. I don’t see the Raptors taking on both of those contracts for minimal production.
So what else could the Nuggets include in the deal? Bill Simmons kept mentioning R.J. Hampton, but I really wouldn’t want to give up on R.J.’s potential if I was the Nuggets. So here’s what I’ll propose instead:
Gary Harris, Monte Morris, Bol Bol
If this doesn’t get us across the finish line, I’d be willing to add in a first or second rounder.
I struggle with the thought of giving up Monte. He’s such a solid player on a team friendly contract. But that’s also why I think he’d be so appealing to a team like the Raptors. I think he could give them about 90% of what Lowry gave them at the starting point guard spot, for a fraction of the price. Add in Gary as a defensive asset and Bol Bol as the high ceiling prospect, and I can see a deal like this working for both sides.
Here would be the likely starting rotation in this scenario:
Lowry, Murray, Barton/Dozier/MPJ, MPJ/Millsap, Jokic
Campazzo would slide right into our backup PG spot, with whoever’s not starting between P.J. and Barton filling into that backup 2 guard role. And then whoever earns the most trust from Malone by the end of the year for those other backup minutes (Green, Milsap, Hart, Nnaji, Hampton, Cancar, Whittington).
Now onto Harrison Barnes.
Barnes is another player with a championship pedigree, although many blame him for the Warriors Finals loss to the Cavs in 2016. I think that criticism is overblown and unfair. He had a tough series, but was a huge reason why the Warriors were there in the first place. Anyways, unlike Lowry, Barnes is still only 28 and has two more years left on his contract after this season. This season he’s averaging nearly 16 PPG, 6 RPG, and 4 APG, fitting in nicely as both a Small and Power Forward. He would essentially be taking over Paul Millsap’s spot in the starting line up (if MPJ hasn’t done that already), and would fit seamlessly next to MPJ and Jokic in the frontcourt. He would add energy, a solid defensive presence, and fit in nicely on offense as someone who could excel in their role. At the very least he wouldn’t keep destroying the Nuggets every time they play the Kings.
I absolutely love this fit for the Nuggets. His offensive production and his defense, combined with his age and contract, are perfect for this version of the Nuggets. Additionally, by all accounts he’s a terrific "locker-room" guy. Take that as you will.
So what would it take to get him?
In this scenario I think keeping Gary Harris is the way to go. A healthy Harris, even if he’s not shooting particularly well, fits perfectly into that starting lineup.
This is a situation where I think we could package Will Barton. For all that’s frustrating about Will Barton, when completely healthy, he can add a lot to a team looking for a consistent scorer. For Harrison Barnes, I think the Nuggets would have to include one of Barton, PJ Dozier, or RJ Hampton. Now if I’m the Kings, I’d want PJ or RJ, but the Kings are the Kings and I’m a Nuggets fan, so let’s just assume they’re willing to take Barton.
I think Barton, Bol Bol, and one of Hampton or Nnaji would get this deal done. I’d absolutely hate giving up on Hampton or Nnaji but it might be the cost of business to get a proven commodity like Harrison Barnes.
This is what our starting lineup would look like in this scenario:
Murray, Harris, Barnes/MPJ, MPJ/Barnes, Jokic
Malone’s bench rotation would depend heavily on who we ended up dealing to the Kings, but it would more or less look like what it does now. The one thing that would be interesting to see is how he would handle the Millsap/Green minutes.
In my opinion, both of these trades are enticing. I think trading for Lowry gives the Nuggets the best chance to immediately compete for a championship. But I also think trading for Harrison Barnes gives us nearly the same immediate chance, while also providing more of a sure thing in the long term.
Either way, I really like both of these options. The Nuggets have assets, I say use them.
Let me know what you think! I’ll post a poll of these trade scenarios, but would also love to hear your ideas in the comments!