Nuggets vs Pelicans I: "Let this trip mercifully end with no further player loss, ok?"

The Good Guys

Their Adversaries

*Red boxes above indicate one notable number to catch my eye for each team

(Open images in a new tab for a closer look. Charts courtesy of ESPN.COM. All links contained within this piece will open in a new tab or window.)

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis.

In-game analysis will be provided for all games except for the second of B2B and/or weekend games. Data will be tracked for all 82 games, regardless of whether analysis is provided or not.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Data:

TPM™ Game 24 NOP

Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic: +49

Aaron "Aar" Gordon: +12

"Brontosaurus" Monte Morris: +2

Will "Thrill" Barton: +9

"Bones" Hyland: +5

Facundo "El Mago" Campazzo: +12

"Mr Undependable" JaMychal Green: +8

"Uncle" Jeff Green: -5

Austin "Tributary" Rivers: N/A

Zeke "The Piano Man" Nnaji: -3

"Mr Dependable" Davon Reed: +2

Vlatko "Mr Olympia" Cancar: N/A

Bol Bol "Baggins": N/A

"Wet" Markus Howard: N/A

Petr "French Toast" Cornelie: N/A

Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray: N/A

"Showtime" Michael Porter Jr: N/A

PJ "Bol" Dozier: N/A

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 19 games +677

Aaron Gordon: 24 games +320

Monte Morris: 24 games +279

Will Barton: 22 games +212

Bones Hyland: 15 games +121

Facundo Campazzo: 22 games +138

JaMychal Green: 22 games -5

Jeff Green: 24 games +36

Austin Rivers: 18 games +12

Zeke Nnaji: 12 games +44

Davon Reed: 3 games +22

Vlatko Cancar: 5 games +21

Bol Bol: 10 games -3

Markus Howard: 11 games +22

Petr Cornelie: 6 games +0

Jamal Murray: 0 games +0

Michael Porter Jr: 9 games +56

PJ Dozier: 18 games +76

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +35.63

Aaron Gordon: +13.33

Monte Morris: +11.63

Will Barton: +9.64

Bones Hyland: +8.07

Facundo Campazzo: +6.27

JaMychal Green: -0.23

Jeff Green: +1.50

Austin Rivers: +0.72

Zeke Nnaji: +3.67

Davon Reed: +7.33

Vlatko Cancar: +4.20

Bol Bol: -0.30

Markus Howard: +1.82

Petr Cornelie: +0.40

Jamal Murray: +0.50

Michael Porter Jr: +6.22

PJ Dozier: +4.20

__________________________________________________________________________________________

TPM™ Per-Minute Splits (Through game 21)

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet.

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 7TH starting five, consisting of Morris, Barton, AG, Uncle Jeff & MVP. The Hornets counter with Brown, Jones, Ingram, Temple & Jonas. Barton has the shits, but not bad enough to sit. Jonas wins the tip and we are underway. Will gets the scoring going with a ten foot J. Joker's trademark-touch seems to be back and the Nuggets lead by five at 9:41. Will is 3-3 in the early going as well, with two from distance. He needs to get sick more frequently. He's first in double digits for Denver. Jeff is once again struggling mightily on defense and the lead is down to one at 6:48. That's only a two game trend for Jeff, but a pattern nonetheless. One other trend to think about is that Denver's third quarter ineptitude began when he entered the starting five.

Motivation has always been a factor for him in his 1000 NBA games. Ingram is not quite the Nugget killer he used to be, now that AG is here. The lead is now nine for Denver, on the strength of an 11-2 run. Denver is playing with pace, much to Malone's dismay. Nnaji and Facu are in for Denver, up nine at 3:11. Jokic/Barton have yet to miss from the floor and each have 13 points. The big question I have is that with Bones back in the lineup, does that mean J-Myke FINALLY is out of the rotation, or does Malone sit Reed? Bones enters at 2:46. To MY dismay, J-Myke is in for MVP at 1:55, up eight. Only AG remains in from the starting five. Will he be replaced by Reed or will Will stagger? New Orleans quickly cuts it to two with two straight and-ones. J-Myke is 0-2, both bricks, one from three, one a wide open 5 footer that went six.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +18 as they lead 35-33 after one.

Qtr2- Reed enters for AG, so apparently Malone is going with a ten-man rotation and the Barton stagger that I LOVE SO MUCH! Denver leads by one at the time of the first rage-timeout, 10:26. Holy shit! Senior is rolling instead of poppin' on the pick! He CAN adapt a tiny little bit after all. Barton finally misses, and of course, it's a wide open layup. He needs to never again attempt a no look pass. I do believe I've stated that previously, once or a thousand times. The lead for Denver is six at 8:14. Lewis goes down hard and it does NOT look good. Likely a knee injury.

J-Myke is energized and finally attacking the rim and hitting the glass. Gotta do other things when you can't shoot for shit. Denver leads by ten on the strength of a 9-0 run, as starters begin filtering in for Denver. Ingram is damned near invisible with AG defending. Jokic still hasn't missed, and the lead is 11 at 5:33. Barton enters and Denver's starting five is intact at 3:35, up 10. It's been a game of runs thus-far and for now, Denver leads by five with seconds remaining. The always-streaky Barton is now as cold as he started off hot, and is shooting 50% on the night. MVP has 17/2/9 on 8-8 shooting.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +27 as they lead 64-57 at the half.

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr3- Jokic misses for the first time and it's on a three attempts, of course. He has a 2D with 17/2/10 at 11:06. For all the talk about coming out better in the third period, there is ZERO movement without the ball, offensively, for Denver. The lead is down to three at 9:50, on the strength of 6-0 run by the Pels. Joker's first two attempts, both threes; both misses. Im not sure why they don't stick joker into the post to stem the tide more often. Ingrams sticks a J and the Pels lead by one at 8:48. Denver has YET to go to Joker in the post where he's essentially automatic. So predictible the outcome and the lack of simple solution. The Pels lead by three on the strength of a 12-0 run.Jokic finally gets it inside the arc and they score. How very odd.

AG sticks a paint-three and Denver leads again at 6:35. Hastings is having a lot of senior moments tonight. The lead is just one at 4:00, and the bench should filter in soon. No bueno. Jokic gets careless with the ball on consecutive posessions and New Orleans has the lead at 3:04, as the bench-squad readies to enter. Jokic is four dimes shy of a second consecutive 3D. It seems like only Jokic has scored for Denver in the period. Barton leads the league in dribbling then dishing with one second on the shot clock. Ingram is a fucking chucker. It's even-Steven at 77, with 1:25 to go. J-Myke has taken consecutive charges and is doing the little things tonight. Denver is 0-5 from distance in the 3rd; three of them have been airballs, according to Hastings. AG plays the entire 3rd period. Reed sticks a three at the horn and he has yet to miss from downtown in his young Nuggets tenure. That one came late however and will be discounted.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +32 as they lead 80-77 after three.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr4- The Nuggets will sadly need a big quarter from the league's MVP to win in New Orleans of all places. Denver still only has two players in double digits, as has been the case since very early in the first period. The lead for Denver is four at 9:38. Reed has been a steadying, veteran force for Denver tonight, off the bench. J-Myke STILL can't shoot. the lead is two at the time of the first break, 7:41. Jeff is first in from the starting unit at this time. He immediately surrenders a three, and the lead. Woah! J-Myke hit a three! Joker/Monte/AG enter and the starting unit is in tact, trailing by one at 6:15. FEED JOKER IN THE PAINT! It's all perimiter right now as Jokic airballs a three. Pels take a five point lead on the strength of a 14-3 run. J-Myke FINALLY made three in double digits for Denver, prior to his exit. Denver has just 6 PITP in the 2nd half. Jokic still hasn't touched the ball inside the arc in this period, aand Denver trails by five at 3:39.Beautiful alley-oop from barton to Jeff out of nowhere, cuts the lead to two at 3:32.

Jeff turns an ankle and has to exit; replaced by Facu. MVP FINALLY sees it in the post and scores easily. He's 11-12 from two tonight. The lead is five with two minutes to go, and it's "nervous time" as Marlowe would say. Jeff is ok and re-enters for Facu. Jokic gets an and-one on a ft line J that is being challenged by New Orleans. It stands as called and the challenge is unsuccessful. Morris heads to the line for three after Ingram unwisely fouls him in the act of shooting. He can tie it up if he makes them all, with just under a minute remaining! He does! Hart misses at the shot clock horn and Denver has it with 33.6 to go. FEED JOKER IN THE PAINT! They do and he scores of course, on the Jokey-doke down low. New Orleans will have the ball with 16.9 remaining. Jonas tips one in with 5 seconds to go, after Barton gets smoked by Graham on the drive. FEED JOKER IN THE PAINT! They take the time out to advance the ball to mid-court. Jokic gets a Sombor Shuffle from 21 feet that rims in and out, and we'll have OT.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +36 as they are knotted up at the end of regulation.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Overtime- No reason to get cute. Ride the MVP and get that W. Yes there's a B2B game in under 24 hours, but the win tomorrow is unlikely. GOTTA have this one. The baseline official is causing the outside ref to call a lot of what should be their own calls tonight. Joker gets the scoring underway from the line. Jonas returns the favor on the other end before Jokic gets an and-one, and a three point lead, at 3:57. Jokic in the paint; Jokic scores. It's so easy guys! The lead for Denver is five as New Orleans calls a timeout at 3:17.

Monte makes four in double digits for Denver. Jonas cuts it to three from the line, at 3:04. A tough J for Joker from 18 and the lead is five again. Jason Hart is one hell of a rebounding guard. Jokic has his 3D with 37/10/11. Graham with the and-one for NOLA and the lead is down to two at 1:20. Jokic in the paint; Jokic scores. The lead is four with under a minute remaining. Jokic now has 11 points in OT for the good guys. AG is fouled with 21 seconds to go and a four point lead. He calmly drains both and that should just about do it.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +49 as theycome back to win in overtime, 119-112.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Final Thoughts:

• Denver wins and in so doing, is back to .500 on the year.
  
• Free Vlatko!
• Why can't two Greens be adequate in the same game?
  
• FEED MVP IN THE PAINT! I mean come on! When you have an automatic bucket, why do anything else?
• AG hasn't looked right since bumping knees in the third. Let's hope it's just a bruise.
  

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats, but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM, which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric, because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 44-year-old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was, in this case, interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly appreciate your the support.

I can be found at @prmorphine on Twitter.

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

And as always, get the jab, wear the mask, act like a good person privately and especially in public; even if you are not, and most importantly, fuck the Lakers.

#DoNotBeABranchCovidian
#DoNotBeAnAmmosexual
#FuckTheLakersOneMoreTimeJustForGoodMeasure
#TLDRHashtagsAndSiglines