Nuggets vs Bulls II: "Can the enormous Serbian contingent in Chicago return the favor, now that the MVP is back?

Preview:

When these teams last met in Denver, the Nuggets were without their top three players, and the numerous transplants from Chicago (apparently, a great place to be... from) took over the Denver crowd at times, as the visiting Bulls eked out a narrow victory on the road. Denver with still be without Murray/MPJ tonight, but the MVP is in action and playing even better than ever, and in front of HIS home crowd.

With Jokic in, and tenacious defender Alex Caruso out, I've gotta think Denver wins this one handily. DDR/LaVine are on the tier just below elite, but Jokic is different, and there are levels to this.

The Good Guys

Their Adversaries

Red boxes above indicate one notable number to catch my eye for each team

(Open images in a new tab for a closer look. Charts courtesy of ESPN.COM. All links contained within this piece will open in a new tab or window.)

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis.

In-game analysis will be provided for all games except for the second of B2B and/or weekend games. Data will be tracked for all 82 games, regardless of whether analysis is provided or not.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 23 CHI

Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic: +48

Aaron "Aar" Gordon: +9

"Brontosaurus" Monte Morris: +21

Will "Thrill" Barton: +3

"Bones" Hyland: N/A

Facundo "El Mago" Campazzo: +3

"Funcle" JaMychal Green: -8

"Uncle" Jeff Green: +0

Austin "Tributary" Rivers: +0

Zeke "The Piano Man" Nnaji: +0

"Mr Dependable" Davon Reed: +0

Vlatko "Mr Olympia" Cancar: +3

Bol Bol "Baggins": N/A

"Wet" Markus Howard: +2

Petr "French Toast" Cornelie: -2

Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray: N/A

"Showtime" Michael Porter Jr: N/A

PJ "Bol" Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 18 games +628

Aaron Gordon: 23 games +308

Monte Morris: 23 games +277

Will Barton: 21 games +203

Bones Hyland: 14 games +116

Facundo Campazzo: 21 games +126

JaMychal Green: 21 games -13

Jeff Green: 23 games +41

Austin Rivers: 18 games +12

Zeke Nnaji: 11 games +47

Davon Reed: 2 games +20

Vlatko Cancar: 5 games +21

Bol Bol: 10 games -3

Markus Howard: 11 games +22

Petr Cornelie: 6 games +0

Jamal Murray: 0 games +0

Michael Porter Jr: 9 games +56

PJ Dozier: 18 games +76

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +34.89

Aaron Gordon: +13.39

Monte Morris: +12.04

Will Barton: +9.67

Bones Hyland: +8.29

Facundo Campazzo: +6.00

JaMychal Green: -0.62

Jeff Green: +1.78

Austin Rivers: +0.72

Zeke Nnaji: +4.27

Davon Reed: +10.00

Vlatko Cancar: +4.20

Bol Bol: -0.30

Markus Howard: +1.82

Petr Cornelie: +0.40

Jamal Murray: +0.50

Michael Porter Jr: +6.22

PJ Dozier: +4.20

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits (Through game 10)

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet.

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 7TH starting five, consisting of Morris, Barton, AG, Uncle Jeff & MVP. The Bulls counter with Ball, Dosunmu, LaVine, DJJ & Vooch. DDR/Caruso are both out which is huge for Denver. I'm going out on a limb and stating that Chicago would gladly trade the two of them for Murray & MPJ, and Denver has three additional rotational players out with COVID, plus PJ out for the season, so I'll shed no tears for them. Any who, time to get freaky-deeky-Zeeky up in this bitch. MVP wins the tip and we are underway. Barton gets the scoring underway from downtown. The teams trade buckets in the early going and Denver leads by two at 7:45.

The lead grows to five by the time of the first break, 7:13. Denver's movement without the ball is as good as it's been at any point this year. Facu is first off the pine for the good guys; in for Will. DJJ gets his 2nd foul and must sit. Nnaji is in for Jeff at 5:03, up eight. Monte is making excellent decisions out there tonight. Reed is next in for Denver at 2:40, leading now by ten. It seems official that Nnaji has passed J-Myke on the depth chart and that once Bones is back, Green might be the odd man out. GET THE FUCKING JAB BONES! MVP is on pace for 20/16/16 tonight, as he sits for the first time at 2:15, replaced by J-Myke.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +13 as they lead 27-18 after one.

Qtr2- The Munder is definitely in play tonight. I miss Bones. GET THE FUCKING JAB, YOUNG MAN! Lonzo is raining threes now and the lead is down to three. He ties it up with another one. Barton is taking questionable shots, to say the very least. Nonetheless, he's first to reach double digits for Denver. The lead for Denver is three at the time of the first break, 9:20. Denver's bench has combined for just three points, and Chicago ties it up from the charity stripe, prompting Malone to reinsert the starters, at 8:22. Chicago is already in the bonus. No Bueno. That's the J-Myke forced-foul-factor.

Two straight threes for Denver and they lead by four at the time of next break, 5:46. Jokic now has a draymond-final-tally-like 5/5/5. DJJ checks in and immediately fouls; his third. He is getting abused by AG in the post. The lead is back up to 11 on the strength of a 13-0 run by Denver at 3:47. Barton posting up against Lonzo?!?! It results predictably in an air ball from 6 feet away. AG seems bushed and LaVine is takin' it to him now. The lead is down to three with a minute remaining. DJJ sticks a three at the shot clock buzzer with Joker right on him and they cut it to one with seconds to go.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +28 as they lead 49-46 at the half.

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Qtr3- No more fuckin' around. Run the offense through Joker. They also have to make LaVine spend energy on the defensive end. Denver has come out lackluster to open things, as has been their wont in 3rd periods of late. Joker is missing bunnies left and right. Malone finally takes a rage-timeout at 9:28, now trailing by four This feels eerily similar to the Orlando game. Third periods have been an issue since Green entered the starting lineup. DJJ erns his 4th foul but remains in at 9:12, leading by one. Where the hell are you Will Barton? There he is; Scoring on a back-cut pass from MVP. Denver leads by one at the time of the next break, 7:55. Jeff makes two in double digits for Denver. Apparently Joker likes belly rubs, according to Hastings. It's even-Steven with six minutes to go. Facu enters for Will at 5:14. MVP needs just one point for the 3D, with 9/10/11.

He earns it at the foul line and Denver leads again by one at 4:55, the 60th of his carreer, passing the great Larry Bird. AG needs to get a whistle in his favor at some point. He gets fouled each time in the post. LaVine is actively foul-seeking with unnatural movement, and thus-far, being rewarded for it. He scores seven straight and the Bulls lead by two at 3:06. Monte makes five in double digits for Denver; all the starters, in fact. Jeff has a 2D with 12/10/0, but Chicagio still leads by one at 2:29, as Chicago calls for a timeout. Jokic takes a seat at this time. Only AG remains in from the starting five. Barton is back in after a very short blow, and Zeke takes a seat. Perplexing, that. LaVine is STILL out there firing away, and why not as he's clearly in the zone. AG sticks a much needed three at the horn.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +37 as they trail 71-77 after three.

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Qtr4- Jokic will have to check in early if Denver hopes to stay in touch here. Things are not looking good in the early moments of the 4th period and J-Myke is called for a foul on a Lonzo three. It's ruled flagrant when it should have been ruled clumsy. Chicago leads by ten and have all the momentum, after what was essentially a six point play. Green misses a simple dunk and he needs to grab pine, but wont for Malone reasons. Another rage-timeout for Malone as the lead is up to 13 at 9:47. Hero ball from Barton is not now, nor will it ever be, the answer. The starters enter at this time which is obviously the right call. Jokic FINALLY makes his first J of the night from 2 point range.

He's regulating in the paint on both ends, and the lead is down to nine with 8:02 to go. The lead is back up to 15 with under seven minutes to go and Malone takes another timeout. Entry passes to MVP remain a problem. Green/Barton are refusing to run in transition and Malone takes another timeout, down 15 at 6:01. Barton may as well not even be out there defensively. They are trading buckets which won't get it done. Jokic finally GETS A FOUL CALLED on Chicago. The lead is 16 with two minutes remaining. Vooch hits two from the line at 1:16, giving them a 16 point lead, and Malone empties the bench. Bad loss, this.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +48 as they lose a game they should have won, by a final score of.

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Final Thoughts:

• Denver loses in embarrassing fashion, 109-97
  
• Weird seeing Joker struggle with his touch like this. I did see him nursing the wrist at a time out. Something to monitor, obviously.
  
• Denver needs to solve this third period bullshit immediately as it's becomeing a momentum changing trend.
  
• Not to take a jab but...GET THE FUCKIN' JAB BONES!
• When you are without $500 million worth of players in Murray/MPJ, you can't afford to ever not give effort, let alone for a ful period extended. Bad loss.
  
• Only Jokic/Monte showed up tonight; not enough vs a solid Chicago team.
  
• Stop staggering Barton (He can't handle the added pressure) & insert Vlatko into the rotation.
  

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats, but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM, which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric, because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 44-year-old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was, in this case, interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly appreciate your the support.

I can be found at @prmorphine on Twitter.

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

And as always, get the jab, wear the mask, act like a good person privately and especially in public; even if you are not, and most importantly, fuck the Lakers.

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