Nuggets vs Golden State I: "MVP vs Curry"

The Good Guys

Their Adversaries

*Red boxes above indicate one notable number to catch my eye for each team

(Open images in a new tab for a closer look. Charts courtesy of ESPN.COM. All links contained within this piece will open in a new tab or window.)

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis.

In-game analysis will be provided for all games except for the second of B2B and/or weekend games. Data will be tracked for all 82 games, regardless of whether analysis is provided or not.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 33 GSW

Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic: +37

Aaron "Aar" Gordon: N/A

"Brontosaurus" Monte Morris: N/A

Will "Thrill" Barton: +19

"Uncle" Jeff Green: +13

"Bones" Hyland: +7

Facundo "El Mago" Campazzo: +2

Zeke "The Piano Man" Nnaji: +9

"Mr Undependable" JaMychal Green: +1

Austin "Tributary" Rivers: +7

Zeke "The Piano Man" Nnaji: +0

"Mr Dependable" Davon Reed: +4

Vlatko "Mr Olympia" Cancar: N/A

Bol Bol "Baggins": N/A

"Wet" Markus Howard: N/A

Petr "French Toast" Cornelie: N/A

Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray: N/A

"Showtime" Michael Porter Jr: N/A

PJ "Bol" Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 27 games +987

Aaron Gordon: 30 games +419

Monte Morris: 32 games +421

Will Barton: 29 games +212

Jeff Green: 33 games +61

Bones Hyland: 22 games +159

Facundo Campazzo: 31 games +252

Zeke Nnaji: 20 games +56

JaMychal Green: 28 games +10

Austin Rivers: 23 games +58

Davon Reed: 9 games +48

Vlatko Cancar: 12 games +40

Bol Bol: 11 games +2

Markus Howard: 15 games +51

Petr Cornelie: 11 games +2

Jamal Murray: 0 games +0

Michael Porter Jr: 9 games +56

PJ Dozier: 18 games +76

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +36.56

Aaron Gordon: +13.97

Monte Morris: +13.16

Will Barton: +7.31

Jeff Green: +1.85

Bones Hyland: +7.23

Facundo Campazzo: +8.13

Zeke Nnaji: +2.80

JaMychal Green: +0.36

Austin Rivers: +2.51

Davon Reed: +5.33

Vlatko Cancar: +3.33

Bol Bol: +0.18

Markus Howard: +3.40

Petr Cornelie: +0.20

Jamal Murray: +0.50

Michael Porter Jr: +6.22

PJ Dozier: +4.20

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits (Through game 21)

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet.

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 11TH starting five, consisting of Facu, Will, Rivers, Uncle Jeff & MVP. The Warriors counter with Steph, GP3, Wiggins, JTA & Looney. Nuggets are playing tonight without 8 guys (including 2nd/3rd/4th best players) despite having NOBODY out due to COVID protocol, which would allow them to sign guys without affecting the cap. Why? LONG-TERM Injuries are FAR more detrimental. CHANGE the hardship rule! Anyway, I'm doing in game analysis tonight, but I expect this one to get out of hand fast, so no promises on longevity of anal. Joker wins the tap and we are under way.

Steph is careless with the ball early (three turnovers already) and Denver jumps out to a 10-0 lead. The lead is eight at the time of the first break, 7:59. Reed is first off the bench for the good guys, at 5:33, up five. Golden State capitalizes on some sloppy play by Rivers/Barton and cut it to two at the time of the second break, 4:32. Bones/Nnaji are in following the break. Barton, who always plays well vs GS (when not injured) is first in double digits for Denver, who now lead by 13 on the strength of an 11-0 run, at 3:05. Curry has no points and four turnovers. JMyke is in and only Barton remains in from the starting five, at 2:33. Will finally sits; replaced by Facu, at 1:57, up 15.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +18 as they lead 31-16 after one.

Qtr2- The Warriors get the first two buckets of the period and trail by 11 at 11:00. Rivers is back to doing his no-hope drives tonight after a several game hiatus. Facu is running the show and the lead is back up to 15 at 9:00. MVP is back into the game at 8:35, up 11. Golden State's best strategy has been sending Kuminga to the line; with the caveat that he's bad at those. The lead for Denver is 15 at the time of the first break, 6:09 Steph remains scoreless, which frankly, scares the hell out of me. He checks out at this time.

MVP is 2nd in double digits for Denver, and he's on 3D watch with 10/6/4. B2B threes for Denver and the lead is 19 at 4:47. Curry checks back in at 2:50, trailing by 20. GS is just 3-12 from the non-charitable stripe. The Warriors are doubling MVP and he's scoring over them anyway. Curry finally scores on a layup with just over 2 minutes remaining. Denver's team D has been outstanding thus-far; the best they've likely seen in December. Denver will take a 23 point lead into the half, and I don't exaggerate when I say, that's not a safe lead, given how they've gone about in third quarters this year.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +26 as they lead 60-36 at the half.

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Qtr3- The Warriors get the 2nd half scoring underway on a nice fade away by JTA. Steph is giving up the dribble too easily, which I'm more than fine with. Denver has come out sloppy to open the 3rd, with two empty possessions in the first three. GS has amped up the physicality and Barton has lost his aggression. Nearly three minutes have passed without Denver scoring. 4/5 possessions for Denver have gone without a shot attempt, with the other resulting in a miss by MVP from 20. Warriors are just 9-20 from the line on the night, but they cut the lead to 18, prior to a three by Rivers at 8:21. An alley-oop, twisting dunk by Uncle Jeff, stems the tide, as Denver leads by 23 at the time of the first break 8:01. Barton is doing all he can to keep the Warriors in this one, as the lead is cut to 18 heading into the next break at 6:44.

Are you wondering if Denver maintains the lead, what emptying the bench would look like? Cornelie. That's it. Literally the only man left. The lead is 16 at 6:10. Make that 14 after Joker fumbles the DHO from 30 feet, and the crowd is into it for the first time tonight. MVP has GOT to set up in the block; Denver is all perimiter right now. The lead is down to 12 on the strength of a 13-0 run by the Warriors. Denver is doing this to themselves. Joker calms the crowd with two from the line, and he has a 2D with 15/10/5. Curry checks out, trailing by 13, at 3:15. MVP needs to stop passing up shots when he has them, as the rest of these guys are far too tentative, and NOT the best player on planet Earth. Curry is back in already after a very brief blow, just as MVP takes a seat for Denver, at 1:41. The lead for Denver is 13. The Nuggets are just 4-19 shooting in the 3rd.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +32 as they lead 74-61 after three.

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Qtr4- Curry will likely play the whole period if GS stays in it. No Bueno. Reed wills one up and in on a beautiful paint move, getting the scoring underway in the 4th. Denver STILL only has two men in double digits scoring. They just need to hold serve while Curry is on the court and MVP is resting. Curry cuts it to 11 with a 35 footer with Facu draped all over him. GS is attacking Bones on every play and it's working about half the time. The lead is still 11 at 8:12. Denver is just 1-12 from distance in the half. Barton/Rivers enter, but play respective ole-D, as GS cuts it to nine at 8:06. Gotta get MVP back out on the floor after the break. They do. Denver has just 19 points in the 2nd half and that has everything to do with lack of aggression and shitty shot selection. GS simply doesn't have the size to match with Joker and Denver refuses to take what's given to them. The lead for Denver is just eight at 7:40. Make that five after a Curry three. Nobody is moving without the ball for Denver. FEED MVP IN THE FUCKING POST ALREADY! Every time Jokic has gotten the ball in the post this half, he's ended up at the line. This is not as difficult as Denver is making it. The lead is just five with half of the period to go.

Jokic with his first bucket of the half, which comes as a result of an offensive rebound, of course. The lead is eight with 4:15 to go. Denver has shot just 25% in the half. Refs utterly bail out Curry on what should have been a charge. Curry cuts it to three with a three ball at 2:55. The lead is two with under two minutes to play. GS ties it on a transition dunk as the refs are swallowing their whistles. Barton gives the Nuggets a two point lead on a boneheaded take that he squeegied up and in vs three defenders. Curry misses from 40 feet on an equally boneheaded take and Barton heads to the line with 32 seconds remaining. He calmly drains two and the lead is four. These have been Bartons only four points in the 2nd half. Wiggins dunks, cutting it to two, and Denver turns it over when Wiggins fouls Barton on the pass, but it goes uncalled. Jokic fouls Kuminga but it ALSO goes uncalled and facu gets the board with 2.3 seconds remaining and a two point lead. Facu hits one of two and GS calls timeout with 2.2 seconds remaining; (generous clock operator at home.) The mole airballs a three fittingly and the good guys win in SF.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +37 as they eke out a victory in the bay, by a final score of 89-86.

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Final Thoughts:

• Denver wins and in so doing, improves to 17-16 on the season.
  
• Believe it or not, this one went nearly exactly how I had envisioned it going.
  
• FEED MVP IN THE FUCKING POST!
• Hats off to Rivers/Facu/MVP & Zeke for their D on Curry tonight.
  

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats, but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM, which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric, because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 44-year-old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was, in this case, interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly appreciate your the support.

I can be found at @prmorphine on Twitter.

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

And as always, get the jab, wear the mask, act like a good person privately and especially in public; even if you are not, and most importantly, fuck the Lakers.

#DoNotBeABranchCovidian
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#FuckTheLakersOneMoreTimeJustForGoodMeasure
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