Nuggets vs Thunder I: "Denver finally returns to action; Giddey with anticipation"

The Good Guys

Their Adversaries

*Red boxes above indicate one notable number to catch my eye for each team

(Open images in a new tab for a closer look. Charts courtesy of ESPN.COM. All links contained within this piece will open in a new tab or window.)

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis.

In-game analysis will be provided for all games except for the second of B2B and/or weekend games. Data will be tracked for all 82 games, regardless of whether analysis is provided or not.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 30 OKC

Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic: +11

Aaron "Aar" Gordon: +17

"Brontosaurus" Monte Morris: +13

Will "Thrill" Barton: -3

"Uncle" Jeff Green: +3

"Bones" Hyland: +5

Facundo "El Mago" Campazzo: +14

Zeke "The Piano Man" Nnaji: +5

"Mr Undependable" JaMychal Green: -5

Austin "Tributary" Rivers: +11

Zeke "The Piano Man" Nnaji: +0

"Mr Dependable" Davon Reed: +6

Vlatko "Mr Olympia" Cancar: +7

Bol Bol "Baggins": N/A

"Wet" Markus Howard: N/A

Petr "French Toast" Cornelie: +0

Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray: N/A

"Showtime" Michael Porter Jr: N/A

PJ "Bol" Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 24 games +874

Aaron Gordon: 30 games +419

Monte Morris: 30 games +407

Will Barton: 26 games +203

Jeff Green: 30 games +55

Bones Hyland: 19 games +146

Facundo Campazzo: 28 games +215

Zeke Nnaji: 18 games +44

JaMychal Green: 25 games -5

Austin Rivers: 20 games +31

Davon Reed: 7 games +34

Vlatko Cancar: 10 games +40

Bol Bol: 11 games +2

Markus Howard: 15 games +51

Petr Cornelie: 11 games +2

Jamal Murray: 0 games +0

Michael Porter Jr: 9 games +56

PJ Dozier: 18 games +76

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +36.42

Aaron Gordon: +13.97

Monte Morris: +13.57

Will Barton: +7.81

Jeff Green: +1.83

Bones Hyland: +7.68

Facundo Campazzo: +7.68

Zeke Nnaji: +2.44

JaMychal Green: -0.20

Austin Rivers: +1.55

Davon Reed: +4.86

Vlatko Cancar: +4.00

Bol Bol: +0.18

Markus Howard: +3.40

Petr Cornelie: +0.20

Jamal Murray: +0.50

Michael Porter Jr: +6.22

PJ Dozier: +4.20

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits (Through game 21)

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet.

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 8TH starting five, consisting of Morris, Will, AG, Uncle Jeff & MVP. The Thunder counter with Giddey, SGA, Dort, JRE & Favors. JMyke returns, to likely fuck up the momentum that the bench unit has built without him, for Denver. Dort gets the scoring underway from beyond the arc. OKC is doubling MVP; this ends badly for them. Jokic with the lefty cross-court slinger, finds Monte for three. Denver is up four at 8:00. My god, Barton is a lousy defender.

His D is almost single-handedly keeping OKC in this one, as they are knotted up at 14 at the time of the first break, 6:35. Facu/Bones are first in for the good guys at 4:09, trailing by two. Nnaji is next in at 3:07, still trailing by two. This hasn't been Joker's best defensive game of the year, so far. The lead is five with 1:42 remaining. AG seems to be experimenting with higher arc on his shot which has had bad results thus-far, but it good for the future. J-Myke is in for MVP and only AAG remains in from the starting five. He'll play out the quarter.

Denver is paced in TPM by Monte Morris: +8 as they trail 18-28 after one

Qtr2- Rivers opens the 2nd period, which thankfully signals the end of the stagger. Kenrich Williams is way over-rated by basketball nerds. Bones has been driving aggressively, and the bench unit cuts it to three at 10:02. Bones has twisted his ankle for the 500th time this season, and he's replaced by Monte at 9:37, trailing by four. Why can't we have nice things, basketball Gods? Jokic enters at 7:25, down six. Denver has also been horrendous (4-9) at the line tonight. Denver is ignoring jokic on the offensive end and OKC leads by ten again at 6:21.

Six Nuggets have taken as many or more shots than MVP thus-far. The rest of the starting five is in for Denver at the other side of a break. Joker scores down low on consecutive plays, and he's over 9K scoring on his career now. He's also first to reach double digits for Denver. Both teams are in the bonus the rest of the way at 4:36; OKC leading by eight. It is UNCANNY how quickly Barton loses his man on D. Denver cuts it to seven with a heavy diet of Joker/AG down low.

Denver is paced in TPM by Monte Morris: +14 as they trail 52-60 at the half.

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Qtr3- Denver is chucking from outside rather than feeding MVP and the lead is 14 for OKC at the time of the first break, 8:43. No bueno. Jokic FINALLY sticks a three. The lead is up to 15 at 6:25, and Denver looks utterly outmatched tonight. Monte cuts it to 11 on an and-one in transition. Monte/AG make three in double digits for Denver. Barton is absolutely standing still defensively, causing a rage timeout by Malone at 4:51, down 16.

Put in Reed! Denver is getting killed on the glass 37-24. Malone does a complete hockey-line-change following the break, this time including Cancar, rather than Zeke. Good to see that Bones is ok at least. The lead is quickly up to 21 after a three by Giddey, with under three minutes to go. Ugly display by Denver thus-far.

Denver is paced in TPM by Aaron Gordon: +17 as they trail 66-88 after three.

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Qtr4- The 22 point lead for OKC is their largest at any point in the season, according to Marlowe. Make that 23, after Facu fouls Bazley, earning him two FT's. It seems likely that Jokic will have his lowest statline of the year, given this turd of a game and the fact that the Nuggets play B2B in Denver tomorrow. If so, he has 13/7/3. Vlatko cuts it to 20 with three FT's as Reed checks in for Bones, at 10:16. Vlatko has been the best Nugget tonight, which is really saying something. The lead is 18 at 9:39. He's scored their last five points. Facu cuts it to 15 with a three, on the strength of an 8-0 run. Rivers (who's played maybe his best game of the year) hits one of his own, and the lead is down to 12 at 8:16!

Vlatko is a foul drawing machine tonight and Denver is in the bonus with 7:13 to go. malone has a touogh choice to make but he absolutely needs to re-insert Jokic if he hopes to win. The lead is 12 with 6:12 to play. It doesn't appear that he's going to reinsert the starters, however. Reed cuts it to ten with a three. OKC is also now in the bonus with 5:37 to go. Rivers cuts it to nine with a three, at 4:45. Reed cuts it to 8 with a transition bucket, but appears to have injured himself in the process, because... of course. He remains in, but his absense resulted in an and-one on the other end and that should about seal it.

Denver is paced in TPM by AG +17 as they lose 94-108

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Final Thoughts:

• Denver loses in embarrassing fashion, by a final score of
  
• When the Nuggets can't stop penetration from the perimeter, they are cooked.
  
• Thank you for giving me SOMETHING to watch tonight Vlatko.
  
• The Nuggets make up more ground in the standings on days in which they don't play, lately.
  

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats, but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM, which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric, because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 44-year-old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was, in this case, interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly appreciate your the support.

I can be found at @prmorphine on Twitter.

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

And as always, get the jab, wear the mask, act like a good person privately and especially in public; even if you are not, and most importantly, fuck the Lakers.

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