Nuggets vs Wizards I: "Home briefly, after 15 long days"

The Good Guys

Their Adversaries

Red boxes above indicate one notable number to catch my eye for each team

(Open images in a new tab for a closer look. Charts courtesy of ESPN.COM. All links contained within this piece will open in a new tab or window.)

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis.

In-game analysis will be provided for all games except for the second of B2B and/or weekend games. Data will be tracked for all 82 games, regardless of whether analysis is provided or not.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 27 WAS

Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic: +58

Aaron "Aar" Gordon: +20

"Brontosaurus" Monte Morris: +26

Will "Thrill" Barton: N/A

"Bones" Hyland: -1

Facundo "El Mago" Campazzo: +3

"Mr Undependable" JaMychal Green: N/A

"Uncle" Jeff Green: +13

Austin "Tributary" Rivers: N/A

Zeke "The Piano Man" Nnaji: +4

"Mr Dependable" Davon Reed: -3

Vlatko "Mr Olympia" Cancar: +8

Bol Bol "Baggins": N/A

"Wet" Markus Howard: +3

Petr "French Toast" Cornelie: N/A

Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray: N/A

"Showtime" Michael Porter Jr: N/A

PJ "Bol" Dozier: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 22 games +811

Aaron Gordon: 27 games +383

Monte Morris: 27 games +346

Will Barton: 23 games +207

Bones Hyland: 17 games +130

Facundo Campazzo: 25 games +160

JaMychal Green: 24 games +0

Jeff Green: 27 games +43

Austin Rivers: 18 games +12

Zeke Nnaji: 15 games +46

Davon Reed: 6 games +28

Vlatko Cancar: 7 games +27

Bol Bol: 10 games -3

Markus Howard: 14 games +37

Petr Cornelie: 8 games -2

Jamal Murray: 0 games +0

Michael Porter Jr: 9 games +56

PJ Dozier: 18 games +76

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +36.86

Aaron Gordon: +14.19

Monte Morris: +12.81

Will Barton: +9.00

Bones Hyland: +7.65

Facundo Campazzo: +6.40

JaMychal Green: +0.00

Jeff Green: +1.59

Austin Rivers: +0.72

Zeke Nnaji: +3.07

Davon Reed: +4.67

Vlatko Cancar: +3.86

Bol Bol: -0.30

Markus Howard: +2.64

Petr Cornelie: -0.25

Jamal Murray: +0.50

Michael Porter Jr: +6.22

PJ Dozier: +4.20

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits (Through game 21)

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet.

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 8TH starting five, consisting of Morris, Reed, AG, Uncle Jeff & MVP. The Wiz' counter with Dinwiddie, Beal, KCP, Avdija & Gafford. With Rivers returning tomorrow and Reed's 10 day contract coming to an end, he will most likely go from the starting lineup to the G-League, in one day. I'd prefer that the Nuggets swallow Rivers contract (decent player; bad fit) and keep the more well-rounded Mr Dependable aboard-ship. That's my 2 cents. Gafford wins the tip as the ball is dropped in the 'Sack. The Wiz are evidently doubling MVP. This will not end well for them. Denver leads 6-0 at 10:00. Gafford gets two quick fouls and he must sit, down four at 7:10. Harrell is in for him.

Time for MVP to eat. The lead for Denver is five at the time of the first break, 6:01. Facu and Zeke are in after the break, followed closely by Bones. The lead is quickly up to 10 at the time of the next break, 2:30. Washington looks tiny compared to Denver, at least in terms of front-court personnel. Joker already has nine boards as a result, to go along with 6 points and three assists. Howard checks in for Jokic and AG is the last remaining starter in the game. Washington immediately/predictably goes on a run and cuts it to six on the strength of a 10-2 run. Zeke is playing some impressive D on Harrell, however. Cancar checks in for AG just prior to the horn.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +9 as they lead 29-22 after one.

Qtr2- Howard sticks a three, from Cancar, to open the scoring. That's followed by an overhead pass from Facu to Vlatko for three. Facu is way into his bag tonight and it's a sight to behold. The lead is 13 at 9:55. Zeke is putting on an absolute clinic on how to defend Harrell. The bench unit for Denver is palpably enjoying this, as Katy pointed out on-air. The lead is 15 at 8:05. They have bought the starters some much-needed rest, which is something I've said fewer than a handful of times this year. Stagger-schmagger, that's what I always say. AG/Monte/MVP are in after the break at 6:02, leading by 13.

Bones/Howard remain out there which is fun. Bertans makes more deeply-contested threes than anyone I can recall. Jeff is in for Howard at 5:33. Gafford earns his third foul and exits, down 12 at 3:17. Facu replaces Bones at this time. AG with the windmill jam in transition. Facu is in his element tonight and he's slingin' the rock. MVP has his 2D with 10/11/4. Three Nuggets (AG/Joker/Monte) are in double digits for Denver, and the lead is up to 16 with just over two minutes remaining. Reed replaces Facu at this time.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +26 as they lead 59-41 at the half.

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Qtr3- Dinwiddie gets the scoring underway from the charity stripe. MVP answers form downtown. Morris with the and-one from three after a beautiful no-looker from Jokic, and the lead balloons to 26 on the strength of a 19-3 run at 10:13. Nikola is now four dimes shy of a 3D. The lead is now 30 after a three by Jeff. This is the best version of Monte Morris we've seen this season and the lead remains 30 at the time of the first break, 8:08. Jeff makes four in double digits for Denver. AG has held Beal to just SIX POINTS!

Gafford gets his 4th foul but remains in. I mean why not, right? Check that, he earned a foul for bitching about it and is disciplined to the bench by coach Unseld. Washington gets two straight threes, leading to a rage-timout for Malone, as the lead is cut to just 29 at 5:04. The bench unit starts trickling in at this point. MVP is just two assists shy of the 3D, but likley won't play the fourth to get it. He's te laster starter who remains out there, leading by 28 at 2:45. He's only one assist shy now, of the 3D. Beal is scorching ever since AG checked out and the lead is quickly down to 21.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +53 as they lead 91-70 after three.

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Qtr4- I'm gonna take the 4th quarter off to enjoy this one, just like Denver's starters.

Jesus tapdancing Christ, WTF was that?

Denver is paced in TPM by __ as they __

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Final Thoughts:

• Denver winsv 113-107, and in so doing, improves to 14-13 on the year.
  
• As I've been saying, they are better off when they don't stagger the bench.
  
• Fuck Tony Brothers (clap clap clap clap clap!)
  

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself, I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats, but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM, which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric, because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 44-year-old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was, in this case, interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly appreciate your the support.

I can be found at @prmorphine on Twitter.

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

And as always, get the jab, wear the mask, act like a good person privately and especially in public; even if you are not, and most importantly, fuck the Lakers.

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